A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; some minor retail rate moves, FHB affordability improves, fast track launched, Tower profits higher, swaps rise, NZD firms, oil low, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank reduced its one year rate by -10 bps to 5.69% today. the Police Credit Union also cut selected rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank and Nelson Building Society both reduced TD rates. But SBS Bank's 5.35% rate for 6 months is still available. Rabobank cut some of its ket TD rates too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MUCH TO CELEBRATE
Home loan affordability improved significantly for first home buyers in 2024 thanks to three key factors.

CORE FUNDING HIGH
The RBNZ said the Core Funding Ratio for all banks popped up over 90% at the end of December. It wasn't this high in any other month of 2024, although to be fair it usually spikes in December. This metric shows how much of a bank's funding that is stable and can be assumed to stay in place for at least 1 year (‘core funding'), related to the core lending business of a bank that needs to be funded on a continuing basis.

FAST TRACK LOOKING FOR A FAST START
Today is the start of the Fast-track Approvals regime which is supposed to make it quicker and easier to build "the projects the country needs to grow its economy". fasttrack.govt.nz is now open now for project applications. Listed projects can apply now for consideration by an expert panel. Other projects can also apply to enter the Fast-track process. Retired Environment Court Judge Jane Borthwick has been appointed as Convener of the expert panels.

ENDING THE WEEK ON A WHIMPER
The NZX50 is up +0.2% in 3pm trade, on track for a weekly fall of -0.5%. There are 43 gainers led by usual laggard NZME, Fletcher Building, and Turners. There are 42 decliners, led by Manawa Energy, a2 Milk, AirNZ, Vista and Gentrack. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% today.

TOWER GIVES CLUES
And listed insurer Tower advised investors that its profits are rising, and this year will come in above the upper end of their prior guidance. Most insurers are not listed in New Zealand and are likely to be doing just as well, even better, than Tower, if only because that have market dominance (IAG AIG) and volume advantages.

MORE POSITIVE ECONOMIC EVIDENCE IN JAPAN
Japan is reporting that household spending jumped in December and by very much more than anticipated. It was up +2.7% in December from November when only a +0.5% rise was anticipated. That large monthly shift now means that the year-on-year rise is +2.3%. If Japanese consumers are opening their wallets, it is both a sign that sentiment is rising, and it will be some counterbalance to the US ructions and the Chinese slowdown.

GOLD APPEALS WHERE RISK IS HIGH
The World Gold Council said that gold supply rose +1% in 2024. But demand was quite varied. Central banks bought up big in Q4, but jewellery demand slumped -11%. Bar and coin 'investors' in Eastern markets were attracted by the rising gold price, while those in Western markets "responded with profit-taking" (ie net selling).

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are probably noticeable higher today, especially the two year, so keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp on Wednesday at 3.88%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.39%. The China 10 year bond rate has dropped -3 bps to 1.61% and "doing the PBoC's job for it". The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.61% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.54% and down -3 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is holding at 4.22%, so that positive curve is a lot less steep at +22 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late Friday trade. (See above.) The ASX200 is an outlier, unchanged in afternoon trade. Tokyo is also an outlier, down -0.4% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.4%, as is Shanghai. Singapore has opened up +0.3%. Wall Street ended today's trade higher with the S&P500 up +0.4%.

OIL DROPS
The oil price is down -US$2 from this time yesterday now just over US$70.50/bbl in the US, and at US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price. Sagging demand prospects are behind the weakness. The oil barons who supported Trump must be having second thoughts as sub-US$70 prices and lower volumes are probably not what they envisaged.

CARBON PRICE STAYS IN RANGE
The carbon price is still within its tight range, today still at NZ$63/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$18 from this time yesterday, now at US$2865/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar has risen +30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 55.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 90.4 AUc. But against the euro we are up +40 bps at 54.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 67.2 and up almost +20 bps from where we were yesterday.

BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is little-changed (-0.2%) from this time yesterday, now at US$97,592. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».