Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Resimac cut all its fixed rates 1-3 years and raised them for longer fixed terms today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS cut its 9 month rate to 4.80%. And SBS Bank said it was ending its attractive 5.35% six month rate a eob today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RENTS FLAT
Housing rents were flat as a pancake in 2024 with just a few exceptions. Landlords will be lamenting the lack of rental growth while tenants got some relief from rising rents.
FOOD PRICES RISE
Food prices had their largest monthly spike January since July 2022, jumping +1.9% and led by grocery prices.
WHO HAS THE POWER?
Of all the other prices monitored monthly, petrol prices were up just +1.2% from a year ago, and diesel was down -4.3% on that same basis. Domestic airfares were up +15.5% but international airfares fell -0.9% (revealing the difference between monopoly pricing power, and competition).
FACTORY MOOD CHIRPY
Even though it is to a modest level, there was something of a surprisingly positive shift in the factory PMI for January. It lifted sharply into expansion after 22 long months in contraction. It’s a positive start to 2025, with the manufacturing sector shifting out of reverse. But we should note that of all the things that make up this PMI, new orders were the weakest of them.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is up +0.4% in 3pm trade, up +0.4% from this time last week, and up +0.5% from a month ago. There are 52 gainers today, led by Synlait's +5.3%, Fletcher's +2.0%, Spark's +1.8% and Skellerup's +1.6%. There are 26 decliners, dragged lower by Vector's -2.2%, Mercury's -1.4%, Goodman's -1.2% and Tower's -1.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.2% so far today.
SINGAPORE SHINES BRIGHTER
Up from +1.8% in 2023, Singapore's economy grew +4.4% in 2024 on the back of stronger-than-expected rebounds in exports and tourism. This was an upward revision from the preliminary +4.0% rate reported by them earlier. By itself, Singapore's Q4 rose at a +5.0% rate.
SWAP RATES PROBABLY LITTLE-CHANGED AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Thursday at 3.84%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.47%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.59% and down -10 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53% and down -9 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is also down -4 bps at 4.31%, so that positive curve is now flatter at +23 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The NZX50 is up +0.4% in late Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.5% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.4%, but Shanghai is dow a minor -0.1% its open. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street closed its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +1.0% with a strong close.
OIL UP
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday, now just under US$71.50/bbl in the US, and at over US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED AGAIN
The carbon price is still within its tight range, today still at NZ$63/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$18 from this time yesterday, now at US$2925/oz.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar has risen +40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 54.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 67.1 and up +20 bps.
BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price is down -1.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$96,806. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.
Daily exchange rates
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Daily swap rates
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