What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday: more find it tough to afford housing, child poverty progress ends, hot NZGB tender, Kiwibank gets ready to fundraise, swaps stable, NZD firmish, & more

[updated]

20th Feb 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut fixed rates, and their new 2 year is now 4.99%. Here are the details. SBS Bank announced its -50 bps floating rate change but oddly it won't apply that to existing customers until March 21. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut its TD rate card rather hard. More info is here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

AFFORDABLE HOUSING OUT OF REACH FOR MORE
Statistics NZ says people have been spending a higher proportion of their money on housing costs than they did in the past. A third of low-income households spend more than 40% of money on housing.

CHILD POVERTY PROGRESS MINOR IN THE PAST BUT ENDS IN LATEST REVIEW
Child poverty rates fell for every year since 2018, but they didn't improve in the year to June 2024, according to a new StatsNZ update.

HOT, HOT DEMAND
There was another blockbuster NZ Government bond tender today. There were 154 bids worth $2.5 bln for the $500 mln available. Only 31 of those bids won anything. The heady demand drove yields lower, although only slightly.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 was down -0.4% in 3pm trade, up +0.6% over the past week, but down -1.0% over the past month. There are only 29 gainers today, led by Vulcan Steel (+2.0%), a2 Milk (+1.2%), Air NZ (+1.2%), and Vital Healthcare (+1.1%). There are 58 decliners however, the largest major being SkyCity (-7.5%), then NZME (-3.7%), Auckland Airport (-3.6%), and Napier Port (-3.3%). Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% today.

'WOKE' BANKING BILL DRAWN FROM BALLOT
NZ First’s ‘woke bank’ member’s bill has been drawn from the ballot and will be automatically introduced to Parliament this term. The proposed law would make it illegal to deny banking services on any non-commercial grounds. It aims to force banks to write more loans to fossil fuel businesses and farmers. It's not a government bill and has been proposed by MP Andy Foster on behalf of his party, which has been frustrated by banks unwillingness to provide services to petrol stations and coal mines. Having been drawn from the ballot, the Bill is entitled to a first reading where MPs will debate the proposal and vote on whether to send it to a select committee for consideration. It would need support from a majority of MPs to proceed any further. It's also possible for the Government to block the first reading by prioritising other legislation and allowing the proposed bill to expire at the end of the Parliamentary term. Federated Farmers recently called on MPs to support the Bill, saying petrol stations and gun stores were legitimate rural businesses and should be allowed access to financial services. ACT welcomed the introduction of the Bill, but said its team would look into the details before deciding whether to support or oppose it at first reading.

CHINESE AI & SOCIAL MEDIA APPs COP PARLIAMENTARY SERVICE BAN
The New Zealand Herald was sent an emailed note from Parliamentary Service, in which Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee says that he and the Parliamentary Service Commission have decided to block the DeepSeek artificial intelligence (AI) application from today. Not only that, the WeChat messaging app, CapCut for making videos and Red Note/Red Note TikTok clone will also be blocked on PS-managed devices from the 24th, and removed from the automatically. This is in line what Australia did recently. There is no mention of hugely popular TIkTok, a Chinese social media app favoured by parliamentarians and government ministers, being banned as well.

SPUTTERING ENGINES
Our national airline says it may have as many as 11 jets out of service between now and the end of June, and it warns of lower profits in second half of year. Their share price is up +0.6% so far today.

HIGHER PROFITS ON STUNTED GROWTH
And this may affect Auckland International Airport. The monopoly's half-year profit surged, but it bemoans lagging airline capacity, saying New Zealand’s aviation growth remains grounded. Their share price is down -3.6% so far today.

SHOP AROUND. GET MULTIPLE QUOTES
Falling livestock numbers has processors scrambling for product for their clients and to run their plants. The pressure is intense. Companies are finding they need to pay more but are desperate that other farmers don't know what they are paying. So most have now withdrawn the publication of livestock schedules. Readers who use our rural comparison service need to know of the sudden opacity. AFFCO and ANZCO have always been opaque, and now they are joined by most others. That leaves you with the intense task of 'calling around'. It is probably worth it at present. We would love to hear what you are being offered (and we will keep your identity confidential). When there are few buyers and many sellers, without transparency, many sellers will be disappointed. (The exceptions are Silver Fern Farms and Taylor Preston, so hats off to them.)

SHOPPING AROUND
Kiwibank is out in Australian wholesale markets looking for an investment bank to help it raise NZ$500 mln to bolster its capital. It is a well-signaled move, but now we are seeing market action (at an early stage). These will be funds that won't come cheap.

LOW & UNCHANGED
China kept its February Loan Prime Rates unchanged at their record low levels.

THE AUSSIE JOBLESS RATE RISES TO 4.1% IN JANUARY FROM 4.0% IN DECEMBER
In Australia, their employed workforce grew by +44,000 in January, above what was expected (+20,000), but less than the December gain (+60,000). But there was a virtuous twist to the January levels with a shift to full-time roles, with +54,000 more of them, and part-time roles shrank -10,000. Average weekly earnings rose +4.6% from a year ago. But high tax rates and inflation at 3.0% will mean most workers felt they just stayed even. (For perspective the NZ jobless rate is 5.1%.)

NATIONALISING A KEY STEELWORKS
And staying in Australia, the SA State Government and the Federal Government have "seized control" of the Whyalla steelworks - essentially nationalising it. And they are having to tip in AU$2.5 bln to keep it afloat. Its British owner has had a very chequered history.

RERATED LOWER
And we should probably note that key Aussie pillar bank NAB has seen its share price fall -15% in a week. CBA is down -6.5%, Westpac is down -11% and ANZ is down -8.0% over the same period. Aussie bank shares are being re-rated lower, and because they are very widely held in Aussie superannuation and KiwiSaver portfolio's savers will notice.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be unchanged again, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.77%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.56%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.70%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.74% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.70% and up +1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.52% and up +2 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -1 bp at 4.26%, so that positive curve is now at +26 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.8% in late Thursday trade and falling from the 3pm levels above. And the ASX200 is down -1.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.1% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.7%, and Shanghai is down -0.1% its open. Singapore has opened up +0.1%. Wall Street was up +0.2% on the S&P500 in Wednesday trade.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price is little-changed from yesterday, now just under US$72/bbl in the US, and at under US$76/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is still within its range, but today is down -50c at NZ$62.50/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 from this time yesterday, now at US$2936/oz.

NZD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar has risen +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 67.2 and up +20 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is up +1.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$96,807. Volatility of the past 24 hours has still been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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101 Comments

by rico | 20th Feb 25, 4:02pm 1740020575

Westpac offering 4.99% for 2 years on the app.

by Juzz | 20th Feb 25, 4:15pm 1740021350

I've got 6.19% for 2 year on kiwibank app

by npc | 20th Feb 25, 4:23pm 1740021821

New Zealand's very own "challenger" bank. What a joke.

by rico | 20th Feb 25, 4:23pm 1740021827

Ouch. 5.89% for 6 months at westpac

by mfd | 20th Feb 25, 4:34pm 1740022441

5.29% for me - all terms are below 6%. Are you on a high LVR or something?

My current rate ends in a couple of weeks, I'm hoping they will get a little lower.

by Juzz | 20th Feb 25, 4:41pm 1740022870

yeh 17% equity, $780k owing and currently at 7.59%

by Nzdan | 20th Feb 25, 7:46pm 1740034017

That 6.19% would be a cool ~$1k per month extra cash for you, certainly not small change!

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 4:17pm 1740021454

Ken Henry is a prominent Aussie economist and public servant who has played a significant role in shaping Australia's economic policy over the past few decades. Today he is lashing out at a system that is basically screwing over young Aussies in favor of the boomers. TBH, when Henry was in power, I have no doubt he played up to vested interests. Somewhat hypocritical IMO.

Henry said voters, concerned about self-interest, were electing populist governments that were engaged in “intergenerational larceny”. They were aided by vested interests that did not want any change because they benefited from the current inequitable tax system.

Henry, the former head of the federal Treasury, used a speech to the Per Capita tax summit in Melbourne on Thursday morning to argue every government over the past decade had breached budget rules by allowing the tax system to degrade to such a point that it is stealing from young people and unborn generations of Australians.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wilful-act-of-bastardry-henry-c…

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 4:27pm 1740022038

Is stealing from the unborn a crime?

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 4:37pm 1740022667

Fair question Z. Why would the boomers give a rats about future generations?

Nevertheless, Henry is also referring to younger people who are in existence right now. And I know much thought doesn't go into these things, but you need these people to unlock the value of your piece of the Ponzi pie. So in due respect, it should be something for you to think about.

by Te Kooti | 20th Feb 25, 5:03pm 1740024190

What % of the voting pool do boomers make up, 22%?

There is none lazier than those who blame boomers for their woes.

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 5:13pm 1740024828

What % of the voting pool do boomers make up, 22%?

There is none lazier than those who blame boomers for their woes.

Another fair point. If younger demogs want change and to wrestle things their way, they have to fight for it through the ballot box.

Easier said than done though. Non-govt vested interests such as banks, tradfi, etc are very much with the boomers. Good luck fighting against that.

My feeling is that the younger demogs feel that fighting for change is hopeless. They're resigned to their fate until the boomers and sycophantic Gen X'ers die off.

by Advisor | 20th Feb 25, 5:21pm 1740025309

Exactly.

Who should young Kiwis vote for? The current lot that is openly committed to lining the pockets of property investors and banks, much of which benefits older voters?

Or the other lot that are too chicken to do anything meaningful to create an even playing field for young Kiwis and instead spend all their political mileage going after woke causes pandering to minorities?

by Pa1nter | 20th Feb 25, 7:23pm 1740032581

Who should young Kiwis vote for?

Someone who represents them. If that's no one, somebody should do something about it. Or just stop complaining.

by Advisor | 20th Feb 25, 7:41pm 1740033703

Easy to say figjt back for your placd when there are entire powerful lobbies pitted against your interests.

Many have stopped complaining and are voting with their feet instead. That's a far worse outcome for boomers than if the youth created a party that represented their interests and worked their way up for years to grab 5% or more of party vote.

by Pa1nter | 20th Feb 25, 7:44pm 1740033859

The fact there's now almost universal instant communications, and we're a million miles from an Arab spring implies our society is only going to be lorded over for quite some time.

Things could change very quickly if people actually did something about it.

by Chaosinflesh | 20th Feb 25, 6:51pm 1740030681

Except we have voted for change! And had promises reneged upon ever since Key!

"Vote for us to fix the housing crisis"...

..."it's a good problem to have".

by KH | 20th Feb 25, 5:13pm 1740024835

I am a boomer and I am incensed at what the housing price explosion has done to young people.

by Te Kooti | 20th Feb 25, 6:28pm 1740029280

That may well be the case, but did you engineer it with malicious intent or were they simply in the right place at the right time?

Your parents and grandparents made incredible sacrifices, it's impossible to engineer a linear improvement in standard of living across generations.

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 6:36pm 1740029800

Your parents and grandparents made incredible sacrifices, it's impossible to engineer a linear improvement in standard of living across generations.

OK. Are you suggesting that living standards in developed countries in terms of affordability at the lower rung of the hierarchy of needs should deteriorate over time? In that case, shouldn't that mean we're a "developing" economy? It would make sense that in developed economies, shelter, mobility, food would require less exchange of labor over time.

Perhaps the trade off for higher cost of living is greater access to computing power in our phones.

by Te Kooti | 20th Feb 25, 6:58pm 1740031114

That's not what I said.

The bulk of housing cost issues in NZ are related to tax incentives, immigration policies and RBNZ monetary policy implementation. How are these Boomer created?

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 7:06pm 1740031606

Through the boomers support of a planned economy framed by the ruling elite

by meh | 20th Feb 25, 8:28pm 1740036539

Umm... they created the policies, bought into the narrative, created the slick marketing to encourage it, hold the positions of power to enforce it, lacked the wisdom and foresight, and now accuse the next gens of being entitled and not working hard enough. They'd rather maintain the status quo than support changes to bring a sense of balance and unity.

Many of them are aware of the issues but have the selfish attitude that it's not their problem. "As long as it doesn't affect my wealth". "I worked hard for my retirement and I don't care". They taught the next gens.

Of course it's not that simple. They were a generation that came from perceived scarcity and poverty. They were taught to blindly obey. Ignorance is bliss.

You're right though that blaming them solves nothing. Continuing the same ways solves nothing either.

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 8:37pm 1740037038

Well articulated.

Why are we having a conversation about the treaty when the real issue on the table in NZ is housing affordibility for the next generation, Parkeha or Maori, or Pacifica or Chinese or Indian...

I suspect for Maori this is now the biggest economic challenge to equality?

is this a great distraction exercise, like a cycle bridge?

by Foxglove. | 20th Feb 25, 7:29pm 1740032959

Different world back then.Govt controlled radio & TV. Latter was black and white and regionalised, each one their own presenters. Newspapers were overtly pro one party or the other. Fast communications were telegrams. The electorate of the time could only vote based on information as it had traditionally always been made available up until then. The young of then, as far as information flow, were relatively in a dungeon compared to what’s available to their counterparts today.

by meh | 20th Feb 25, 7:53pm 1740034406

Are you suggesting that the "boomers" should be making incredible sacrifices to at least maintain a baseline standard of living for the next generations?

by Nzdan | 20th Feb 25, 5:36pm 1740026176

I blame boomers, and I have very little woes personally.

The collective cohort made some very selfish decisions over the years when it came to things such as Superannuation, and to this day flat out refuse to acknowledge it. Mind you, they were in their 20's when they voted Muldoon so young and stupid like they claim today's youth are. Backed up by their inability to save 2 x their income to buy a basic entry level house with cash, when TD rates were double digits, instead taking out 2nd mortgages and vendor finance at silly interest rates.

by Norm | 20th Feb 25, 5:54pm 1740027284

You always blame boomers. In a generation's time, people your age now, will be blaming your cohort. You are just one person in your cohort, but they'll blame everyone, like you do. That's why someone above calls it 'lazy'. What are your cohort doing to fix 'all the problems caused by boomers'? Sitting, waiting for them to die off, again, 'lazy'...

by Pa1nter | 20th Feb 25, 7:13pm 1740031997

You arseholes knew the world was on fire, yet none of you modified your behaviour, or did anything about it at all?

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 7:18pm 1740032327

people hate act but act believes in user pays, the biggest users of NZ Services are often the boomers... if enough young people voted for user pays, the boomers using the health system the most would pay the most....

they also want to limit nz super, and the young have time to save, just sayin

by Nzdan | 20th Feb 25, 7:59pm 1740034781

I think you'll find the Boomer reputation will continue to be passed down for generations to come. Generation X blame boomers, Millennials blame boomers, Gen Z blame boomers. Don't worry, Gen Alpha will follow suit.

It's a bit hard to fix the shit sandwich when over 20% of our tax revenue goes back in the form of benefits regardless of need to fulfil some "social contract" many of us were not even alive to have a say in. Wonder what the average age is in the political party donor lists...

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 8:05pm 1740035156

Not sure I agree. Recommend you read The Fourth Turning.

by Nzdan | 20th Feb 25, 8:07pm 1740035279

Thanks, I've heard the title mentioned but I'll pick it up.

by Independent_Observer | 20th Feb 25, 8:59pm 1740038396

Read it around 2021 - the world and the last 100 years of history made (as makes) far more sense to me after reading.

It’s not a quick read - found I had to read a few pages, then digest it for a few days. Took a few months to get through. But the Strauss- Howe generational theory is very thought provoking.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory

I no longer hold grudges towards the behaviour of other generations - each is conditioned by the failures (or successes) of the generations that proceeded them.

by Norm | 20th Feb 25, 8:22pm 1740036162

So you're all blaming it on the boomers and sitting back and doing nothing about it. Well that won't get you to a better place. ITGuy has made a good suggestion above. I voted ACT the last two elections, I'm not against user pays. I'm doing something at least, and I'm the target of your blame game. Also, as I've said to you before about your boomer blaming, during my voting life, what party could I have voted for to not have what we have now? I never voted for Muldoon by the way...

by HouseMouse | 20th Feb 25, 8:36pm 1740036965

It’s kind of the boomers fault, but kinda not. Really the boomers were just the start of a society dominated by self interest. That’s definitely carried through to younger people today, and might even be worse.

I am not hopeful that we will see any reversal of materialistic self interest. Indeed I think it is worsening

by Norm | 20th Feb 25, 9:03pm 1740038624

Blaming boomers is such a lazy cop-out.

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 9:10pm 1740039045

Boomers were brought up in a world where it seemed obvious that things were always improving. Technology and more enlightened social systems were making great strides. Things were supposed to get better and better so many Boomers didn't worry too much about the wellbeing of subsequent generations because it was a given. I think Generation X also had this mindset. You see this in the way many don't particularly support their children and even boast about making sure they spend all their money in their retirement. I don't personally subscribe to this attitude and intend to leave an inheritance while assisting as much as I can in the meantime.

As I am a late Boomer I recall things starting to change in the late seventies as a young person just starting out.. People were saying things like, "No one owes you a living sonny". I thought at the time, "Wait, what, no, yes they do!".

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 8:44pm 1740037468

Just for the record I have not yet voted for Act , but i suspect voting for National or Labour will never change anything, as i mentioned above,

especially in MMP... I suspect most young just give up and go offshore, it made me, 8 years in investment banking in London...

There is really no future for STEM grads in NZ

Anyone else hear the Trademe founder on Hoskins this am, so much sense

by Nzdan | 20th Feb 25, 9:54pm 1740041694

What makes you think I'm just sitting back and doing nothing about it? I also voted ACT ever since I was let down by National in 2008 (first time voter age at the time).

A good part of the reason Boomers get so much flak, is their unwillingness to accept that in 1975 that "social contract" might have been a far too generous promise to uphold leading into the early to mid 2000's. Rather than accept it was a huge folly, they double down on their entitlement mentality and make all sorts of suggestions about the younger generation's frivolousness and work ethic to deflect the heat away from ever being sensible about the dole for oldies. And then get upset about the response they receive.

by Norm | 21st Feb 25, 12:42pm 1740094926

If you voted National in 2008, using your logic, you've helped cause this mess. Blaming boomers will achieve nothing, other than wind us up. By the way, I'm also pro means testing super, but neither major party seems to want to go there, and I think it will require cross party support.

by Nzdan | 21st Feb 25, 1:19pm 1740097144

Let's see, I voted John key because he was calling out the housing crisis in 2007 and I thought he would sort it. I was misled.

Boomers (not yourself personally) voted Muldoon because he campaigned on scrapping compulsory super contributions, instead opting for tax payers to foot the bill for super.

So yes, in a way you could say I've helped cause this mess, but Boomers who did vote Muldoon voted exactly for what we have today.

by powerdownkiwi | 20th Feb 25, 6:12pm 1740028357

ZS - morally, yes.

But when people write their own rules, and don't allow representation of those they're screwing?

Legally, unlikely.

Bit ;like the media. really. Needs that which it should be challenging, to fund it. So radio silence...

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 5:15pm 1740024905

Thought I would copy this from one of Aotearoa's higher profile fund managers when comparing SP500 vs NZX (in USD). NZX in USD terms has basically returned zero in past 5 years. And in gold terms around -50%.

What's happened to Godzone?

The performance of the NZX has been woeful.

I think this is a reflection of the state of our economy and high interest rate settings among other things. Let's see what happens today.

But for investors, if you have had all your money invested locally, between the NZX and the property market, it's been a tough few years.

by Brocky | 20th Feb 25, 5:03pm 1740024217

Very glad to no longer have any NZX exposure.

by David Chaston | 20th Feb 25, 5:30pm 1740025818

NZX50 over past 12 months = +11.3%
ASX200 over past year = +8.5%
Nikkei225 over 1 year = +0.3%
Shanghai over 1 year = +14.5%
Hang Seng over 1 yr = +39%
S&P500 over 1 year = +23.5%

by Mountie | 20th Feb 25, 5:38pm 1740026338

Thanks David. And add in some solid dividends. Contact divi is up 14% year on year, NZX, New Zealand's Exchange - Announcements, Delivering New Renewables While Supporting Security Of Sup

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 6:08pm 1740028109

Actually if you measured the performance of NZX in USD, you're barely clearing 5% in past 12 months -- only 7% over 5 years, even with dividends. Measured in gold, the returns are negative, at least -30% at best.

by powerdownkiwi | 20th Feb 25, 6:14pm 1740028453

In proportion to debt incurred?

by Eschaton | 20th Feb 25, 6:34pm 1740029644

Shush.

by Pragmatist | 20th Feb 25, 8:07pm 1740035247

Dividends are already included in NZX50. Without dividends it went backwards by 1.78% over the last year.

by Pragmatist | 20th Feb 25, 8:03pm 1740035039

Is that like for like figures? I seem to recall nzx is a total returns index (cap gains + dividends) whereas most indices don't include dividends.

Edit:

Asx200 net total return 1yr: 13.12%, this includes dividends reinvested on their ex-dividend date.

Nikkei225 net total return 3.9%

S&P net total 24.65%

by K.W. | 20th Feb 25, 7:01pm 1740031315

You are correct. Its comparing apples with oranges.

by Brocky | 20th Feb 25, 5:06pm 1740024401

New updates out for homes.co.nz estimated values today. The plummet continues.

Incredibly grateful for the teachings of The Prophet.

by The Man3 | 20th Feb 25, 6:40pm 1740030035

Homes.co are just so far out with their estimates in Christchurch it is ridiculous!

Where they get their figures from I am not sure, as almost everything sells for a heck of a lot more.

ChCh continues to rise.

by Brocky | 20th Feb 25, 6:46pm 1740030383

Cope.

by Norm | 20th Feb 25, 7:17pm 1740032259

The Christchurch REINZ HPI from yesterday, are all negative. How about providing actual data to back up your spin.

by The Man3 | 20th Feb 25, 9:42pm 1740040932

Norm, Homes.co is probably around $100k low on selling prices at the moment.

They are far lower than Quotable Value estimates for ChCh and they are low as well.

You only have to look at the Harcourt auction selling prices over the last couple of days to see this.

by agnostium | 20th Feb 25, 10:05pm 1740042313

😂😂😂😂

It's official, Christchurch is the new Riverhead

by Norm | 21st Feb 25, 8:07am 1740078474

In Christchurch, stock for sale is building, prices are down and will continue to reduce, just like most other places in NZ.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 20th Feb 25, 5:10pm 1740024634

"Child poverty rates fell for every year since 2018, but they didn't improve in the year to June 2024"

Hey. You voted for it. (I didn't).

You wanted big tax cuts for Landlords. And tiny, pathetically tiny, PAYE tax cuts for yourselves.

But our kids? And our poor? Fuck them! Right?

They don't work. And they pay no tax! So screw them, right?

NZ is no longer the place I grew up. Shame on you.

by Rhumline | 20th Feb 25, 5:29pm 1740025791

The G&T is strong in you tonight CoNM, but I cannot but helplessly pour myself a similar draft and agree with you. The private school prats have taken over the staff room and all the misery they bestow is invisible to them.

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 6:34pm 1740029657

Do you not think Chris, that perhaps the current recession, has more to do with the worsening of child poverty then National...

Sorry mate , but as a Right voter, you will notice I Constantly stick the knife into Luxys lack of vision and plan, but seriously we have to look at Orr and Robbo for the current BS we are in. Labour talk a good game but have no idea how to liftNZ out of poverty, the Greens would only make poverty worse, but while you are on your bike, living under led powered by solar, and singing kumbaeya, you might not notice how poor you are... and you can always have a spliff to take your mind off it...

by Hastings | 20th Feb 25, 5:49pm 1740026985

Well said Chris

by powerdownkiwi | 20th Feb 25, 6:18pm 1740028709

Child poverty is really: Child lack of access to energy and resources.

I have been pointing out to Labourites, for years, that while you can be more equitable, the bigger problem is the sinking lid.

So lowering population has to be a given, if you want to reduce poverty - of any echelon.

Energy-blindness - it's not just the Right; the Left is just as ignorant. The Leith branch had quite a lot of this stuff presented to them - but someone threw the babies out with the bathwater....

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 6:25pm 1740029105

I read today that there are huge reserves of white hydrogen in the Earth's crust and mantle.

Modelling suggests that enough natural hydrogen exists to meet humanity's demand for hydrogen for thousands of years

by Let me be Frank | 20th Feb 25, 7:02pm 1740031323

"Modelling suggests that enough natural hydrogen exists to meet humanity's demand for hydrogen for thousands of years, however most of this cannot be extracted economically.^[5]^[6] Natural hydrogen has been identified in many source rocks in areas beyond the sedimentary basins where oil companies typically operate.^[7]^[8]^[9] As of 2023, only one well of natural hydrogen has been in exploited, producing enough gas to generate electricity for a village in Mali"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_hydrogen#:~:text=Modelling%20sugg….

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 7:12pm 1740031977

I prefer the nuclear waste inside diamond battery idea....

By encapsulating radioactive material inside diamonds, we turn a long-term problem of nuclear waste into a nuclear-powered battery and a long-term supply of clean energy.” The team have demonstrated a prototype 'diamond battery' using Nickel-63 as the radiation source.

a 5000 year battery... https://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/what-we-do/diamond-batteries/#:~:text=B….

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 8:24pm 1740036256

Julian Simon was confident we humans would find a way.

by powerdownkiwi | 20th Feb 25, 7:13pm 1740032030

Bernays alert 101

'demand for hydrogen'.

Not: 'demand for energy'.

Slick spin, but spin nonetheless. Hydrogen is too low in the entropy scale, to run this level of activity. Or even close. Hence the need to spin.

by Let me be Frank | 20th Feb 25, 7:59pm 1740034788

Spin not to include the quote in its entirety.

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 8:22pm 1740036133

It's currently not economical because we are awash with cheaper energy sources.

by powerdownkiwi | 20th Feb 25, 9:27pm 1740040046

WRONG - ON MANY LEVELS.

When did you stop being able to learn?

I've put up a lot about 'cheap' over the years here - enough to invalidate your comment many times over. Hint - how much debt was key-stroke issued? So where's the relativity?

Sheesh...

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 9:55pm 1740041735

Debt is just a man made notion PDK. If the energy source is there and we need it we will find a way to extract and utilize it. Most of us don't subscribe to your nonsense.

by agnostium | 20th Feb 25, 10:08pm 1740042529

Most of us don't subscribe to your nonsense

You should. He can be patronising but he is fundamentally not wrong.

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 10:16pm 1740042999

PDK doesn't even understand the second law of thermodynamics.

by He Kahukura | 21st Feb 25, 9:07am 1740082051

Perhaps you may care to enlighten us with your annotated treatise. Then we will peer review your efforts.

by solardb | 20th Feb 25, 10:07pm 1740042423

Rest of article says they haven't figured out how to mine it in commercial quantities, and once they do would take 10 years to market.

by agnostium | 20th Feb 25, 10:13pm 1740042795

This is similar issue with nuclear, it takes a long time to build a nuclear power station and it takes quite a bit of energy and materials. And yet we're spunking away the limited amount that remains on holidays, cars and junk. By some accounts the threshold for when we could feasibly transition to nuclear has already passed. I mean in a straight up 'replacing fossil with nuclear', ignoring all the other issues with nuclear.

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 25, 6:22pm 1740028929

I don't think it warrants getting that emotional about it. Poverty is relative and New Zealand's poor are well looked after compared to many other places in the world. It's always going to be a thing because it's relative poverty.

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 8:47pm 1740037624

A long while back I used to go out with a cop, then later I had a cop as a flat mate, not good work stories....

Yes its the parents fault, but the children can be stuck in a living hell... and they then project that hell back on the society that did not help them for the rest of their lives.

Gang members are made not born.

by agnostium | 20th Feb 25, 10:15pm 1740042917

For someone who is right wing you do have some views that many would consider lefty tendencies. I say that in a complimentary way. I like people who follow the evidence and are able to step outside ideology.

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 10:48pm 1740044884

Thanks, you can achieve little unless you are willing to compromise

to stich a deal you must be able to see things from the other side.

a great deal is a deal but neither side got all they wanted but both sides got enough.

The issue is that the right and left like to simply there message for there voters

so then they can not compromise (least they look weak)

the only way you can resolve this is to run referendums....

but how do you think this would work out for treaty issues.

‘Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…’

Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947

by TronMVP | 20th Feb 25, 7:23pm 1740032599

Poverty is relative because of how it is measured here ie below 50% of the median household income. Those children are not necessarily in Poverty, but some are because their parents spend their money on alcohol, cannabis, tobacco, meth, and tattoos. Many of those in poverty are obese because their parents give them a big serving of chips for dinner (and nothing else). Around the world, 28,000 people die every day from starvation - now that is real poverty.

by Squishy | 20th Feb 25, 5:36pm 1740026218

Child poverty rates fell for every year since 2018, but they didn't improve in the year to June 2024, according to a new StatsNZ update.

Children have had it too good for too long, clearly.

by Eschaton | 20th Feb 25, 5:44pm 1740026644

Hmmmm someone ought to tell Nicola Willis about the NZGB results.

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 6:12pm 1740028328

USDJPY is closing in on 150. Could be a problem if any break of the level triggers further selling.

If there’s any pair that can cause global market disruptions, it’s this one.

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 6:33pm 1740029596

NZDJPY last calls, bus is about to leave.....

meanwhile those cheap puts are getting more expensive....

ASX faces worst profit season in two years as banks sell off

The sharemarket has erased over $30 billion in market value this week as the big banks took the sheen off an otherwise surprisingly resilient earnings season.

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 6:43pm 1740030203

This is interesting. Banks selling off. CBA down 7.2% this week. Mind you a scratch wound for one of the most expensive banks on the planet.

The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index has fallen 6.5% over six consecutive sessions, weighed down by poor earnings updates from major players like NAB, Westpac, and Bendigo Bank.

This marks one of the steepest corrections since September 2024, when the index dropped 6.3% over ten days as investors rotated out of banks and into beaten-down mining stocks. However, the catalyst this time is different, with three leading banks flagging a broad range of pressures, including shrinking net interest margins, higher funding costs, and intensifying competition.

https://www.tradingview.com/news/marketindex:34b55dbc4094b:0-have-the-g…

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 7:08pm 1740031692

I believe its called

Reversion to the mean.....

by J.C. | 20th Feb 25, 7:21pm 1740032469

Aotearoa peso now down 7% against the basket case yen in past 12 months.

You couldn't make this sh*t up. But it's true.

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 7:50pm 1740034210

As i said a great trade but maybe best with an option to cover as a hedge or as puts....

I once held a large yen position as a tsunami washed across japan.... it can be exciting, I learnt from that experience.

by Te Kooti | 20th Feb 25, 6:33pm 1740029614

Silver Fern Farms caught dumping untreated slaughterhouse waste and faecal matter direct into the ocean.

by K.W. | 20th Feb 25, 6:59pm 1740031143

its ok mate, its Maori Science

https://www.synapsys.co.nz/case-study/silver-fern-farms-a-maori-led-app…

by IT GUY | 20th Feb 25, 7:01pm 1740031318

https://www.teaonews.co.nz/2024/12/27/silver-fern-farms-accused-of-poll…

by Rampart | 20th Feb 25, 7:11pm 1740031913

Top 3 family names registered in NZ in 2024

- Singh

- Kaur

- Smith

by agnostium | 20th Feb 25, 10:19pm 1740043145

by Just a farmer | 20th Feb 25, 8:49pm 1740037750

No mention of ANZs 4.79% 2 year mortgage rate?

The mortgage rate discussion facebook page is absolutely fizzing today, and mortgage brokers are being very quiet because it seems like it is a bank only deal that brokers can’t access.

by M0ralHazard | 20th Feb 25, 10:17pm 1740043047

It's a staff rate

by Just a farmer | 21st Feb 25, 10:13am 1740085984

Seems to be a few people getting it and saying they are not ANZ staff.

I’m sure it would be against their policies to tell lies to their customers and share a rate that is not available to the public. I’m not sure what they would be achieving by blowing up their phone lines with people chasing a rate that doesn’t exist.

by solardb | 20th Feb 25, 10:09pm 1740042595

Re choices for the young, any move to give them future security would see them paying twice , because it's politically impossible to retro reduce current benefits.

So they will pay for current retirees, plus start allowing for their own retirement.