A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; only minor retail rates changes, office vacancy rates high & rising, grocery prices unchanged & compare well with Australia, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes today. This review might be helpful. All rates are here. And you can compare the non-rate incentives here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society, and Wairarapa Building Society both cut term deposit rates today. NBS has notably low offers. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SUPPLY OVERHANG GROWING
Auckland office vacancies are high and rising. Colliers say it almost touched 14% at the end of December, 2024. A-grade offices were running at 9.8% within that. Wellington was running at 10.5%, Tauranga at 10.6%, and Christchurch at 8.3%. Our own weekly tracking of office space to lease listings show that since the end of December, Auckland has trended up +1.5%, Wellington up +1.0%, and Christchurch is down -1.8%.

DROUGHT SPREADS
The Government has declared drought conditions in the Northland, Waikato, Horizons, and Marlborough-Tasman regions as a medium-scale adverse event, recognising the worsening conditions faced by many farmers across the country. The dairy season is coming to an abrupt end.

CHEAPER IN NZ
It is probably worth noting that since October 2023 (yes 2023), our weekly monitoring of a standard healthy shopping list has sown no net change in the overall spend on that list. While it is probably true that actual shopping lists will vary from the one we use, it does point out that changing buying habits, and unhealthy item choices, are much of the reason shoppers feel prices are rising. We use Woolworth's online shopping facilities to keep this series updated. We also use Woolworth's Australian online system to benchmark this work (against the same list). That shows since October 2023, Australian prices have risen +9.1% in AUD. If you use the exchange rate at the time the comparisons were made, that Aussie shop was +13.4% higher in NZD. The list purchased in NZ is currently -10.1% less expensive than the same list purchased in Australia. But the barbeque conversations and social media 'comparisons' will be offering a different 'reality'.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is up +0.2% at 3pm today, after being lower earlier. That means it is heading for a weekly fall of -1.2% to be now only up +5.5% from a year ago. Kathmandu today recovered to lead the 31 gainers with Stride and Spark. There were 43 decliners led by Tourism Holdings, Kiwi Property Group, and Argosy. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare rose +1.9% today

AUSSIE DATA POSITIVE
Data released in Australia today shows that the number of filled jobs rose by +0.4% to 16.0 mln by the end of the December quarter, up +3.1% or +482,000 in a year. This was less than expected. But hours worked rose at almost twice the rate in the month, +0.7%. January data for household spending rose +3.8% from the same month in 2024 and a similar pace of increase we have seen there for each of the past four months.

BRACE FOR IMPACT
Tropical cyclone Alfred is moving slowly and hasn't yet cross the coastline near Brisbane. That is due early Saturday morning now. But it is causing widespread damage all the same. More than 80,000 people across Southeast Queensland and Northern NSW are reportedly without electricity. Storm damage estimates are yet to be revealed. One plea from emergency workers is for those with rooftop solar power to shut their systems down. Live working systems are dangerous when damaged.

DENMARK CUTS
The Danish central bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.10%, following a similar move by the European Central Bank who cut to 2.65%, maintaining the -55 bps differential the Danes have had.

SWAP RATES HOLD, LONG RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally firmer again today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.72% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.46%. The China 10 year bond rate is up an unusual +6 bps at 1.82%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.62% and down -5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26% and down -5 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -8 bps at 3.95%, so that positive curve is out to +31 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late Friday trade, an unusual rise in a sea of red. The ASX200 is down sharply, down -1.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down even more, down -1.8% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.2%, and Shanghai is down -0.3% its open. Singapore has opened down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday session down -1.8% and resuming its risk-aversion retreat.

OIL EASES FURTHER
The oil price is now lower, down -50 USc and now just under US$66.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$69.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FALLS OUT OF ITS RECENT RANGE
The carbon price is lower, falling -$1.25 to NZ$61.25/NZU on moderate volumes. That is a now a six month low. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$17, now at US$2906/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps at 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 67 and up +10 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is down -3.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$87,925. Volatility of the past 24 hours has again been very high at just on +/- 4.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».