Work and residence visa trends settling back to normal levels

Economy / news

Number of overseas workers in New Zealand almost back to pre-Covid peak. Residence visa numbers hit a new high

21st Apr 25, 7:11am by Greg Ninness

The number of people in New Zealand on work visas has almost returned to its pre-Covid high, while the number on residence visas has hit a new high.

The latest figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment show that 15,354 work visas were approved in March this year.

That's a relatively low number for the time of year and was down 14.6% compared to March last year and down 45.3% compared to March 2023.

The latest approvals were also well below the prevailing levels pre-Covid - see the first graph below for the monthly trend going back to 2015.

However while the number of work visas being approved is relatively low compared to previous years, the total number of people in this country on work visas has climbed back up to near its pre-Covid peak, and that is in spite of the more than 200,000 people who transferred from work visas to residence visas under the 2021 Residence Visa Scheme (now closed).

The jump in residence visa holders has taken the total number of people in this country who have received a residence visas within the last five years* to a record 345,345. See second graph below.

the latest figures suggest that after periods of considerable disruptions in both directions, work and residence visa flows are settling at more normal levels.

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*Note: MBIE population figures for people on residence figures only include people who have had a residence visa for up to five years. Those who have had had residence visa for more than five years are not included in this dataset.

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22 Comments

by MikeM7382 | 21st Apr 25, 9:29am 1745184595

Just can't resist the easy road of using population growth to "grow the economy" can they.

by redcows1 | 21st Apr 25, 9:47am 1745185676

"Normal"

Utterly rediculous and never mandated as it's never debated. Anyone who disagree s is a xenophobe.

by IT GUY | 21st Apr 25, 10:28am 1745188114

I am not sure where are the jobs are coming from for these people. I have friends who are out of work across different wage points and its dire.

by J.C. | 21st Apr 25, 12:03pm 1745193825

Just can't resist the easy road of using population growth to "grow the economy" can they

If the Ponzi does not elicit the right responses through the wealth effect - consumer spending value and volume growth - then they have to grow the head count. By opening the gates, the ruling elite hopes to stimulate spending thereby greasing the synergistic relationship between greater spending and the Ponzi. If you want an example of this taken to its extremes, Aussie is a particularly good case study at the moment. And even though rental inflation is hovering around 13%, the CPI is jigged as such so that the boffins and ruling elite don't see any need to to adjust its price-of-money levers.

by Pa1nter | 21st Apr 25, 1:13pm 1745198003

Do you know many places that can grow an economy while having a declining population?

by IT GUY | 21st Apr 25, 1:24pm 1745198658

China … every year 5%

by Pa1nter | 21st Apr 25, 4:37pm 1745210242

They're currently hitting their peak workforce numbers

by J.C. | 21st Apr 25, 2:36pm 1745203011

Do you know many places that can grow an economy while having a declining population?

Well P, it seems that the demographic basket case that is Japan has been outperforming Aotearoa and Aussie when GDP is adjusted for popn growth and inflation.

But you're not going to read that in Granny or hear it from the ruling elite and its apparatchiks, so you shouldn't be expected to know these things.

by Pa1nter | 21st Apr 25, 4:39pm 1745210366

True, you have nailed my only two sources of information.

What timeframe are you talking about anyway?

by IT GUY | 21st Apr 25, 5:31pm 1745213505

timely

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/japan-posts-record-population-drop-…

by profile | 21st Apr 25, 7:00pm 1745218823

Who needs Japan? At current fertility of 1.56 (vs. Japan 1.26) NZ population is set to drop 70% in four generations. No country that has dropped below replacement 2.1 has ever got back to replacement level.

"Assuming the continuation of the current trajectory of our fertility and mortality (and even with some variation), the exponential population growth of the mid-20th century (doubling time of 37 years) is about to flip to an asymptotic decline, with the population halving every about 40 years.

The hard realities of these demographic projections will pose huge challenges for humanity. The circumstances within which our biologically and culturally driven human behaviours evolved are now becoming part of our past."

https://insightplus.mja.com.au/2024/8/health-care-in-for-a-roller-coast…

by J.C. | 21st Apr 25, 7:27pm 1745220455

Fair enough. Which of the ruling elite is explaining this to the hoi polloi in justification for migration?

by Pa1nter | 21st Apr 25, 8:01pm 1745222482

It's implicit in our immigration policy.

Hence, we'll get a steady stream of migrants irrespective of the economic climate of the day.

Expect that birth rate to accelerate in its decline also, as concepts like relationships and families get further from the zeitgeist.

by profile | 21st Apr 25, 9:17pm 1745227076

They are too gutless - TBF no pollie wants to be the one holding the no baby when it dawns on the general populace the welfare state is over. Robbo and Nicola borrow like drunken sailors off the unborn when, tragically for those of us at home, the unborn aren't being conceived or even contemplated.

by Pa1nter | 21st Apr 25, 10:03pm 1745229782

They are

Just not in NZ. More like Manilla, Capetown, Delhi, Nadi, or Bristol.

by profile | 22nd Apr 25, 7:19am 1745263166

Manilla, Capetown, Delhi, Nadi, or Bristol won't be coming to the welfare state rescue. Pumping your cities full of immigrants exacerbates population decline - who can afford a kid if you can't afford a house/healthcare?

"All of the predictions agree on one thing: We peak soon. And then we shrink. Humanity will not reach a plateau and then stabilize. It will begin an unprecedented decline."

"So, within not too many hundreds of years, and depending on the TFR, there are likely to be less than one billion people alive, and possibly only one-tenth of that, lower than it was 10 000 years ago."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/18/opinion/human-population…

https://afterthespike.com/media/nyt_pic.png

https://insightplus.mja.com.au/2024/8/health-care-in-for-a-roller-coast…

by Pa1nter | 22nd Apr 25, 8:33am 1745267629

Manilla, Capetown, Delhi, Nadi, or Bristol won't be coming to the welfare state rescue. Pumping your cities full of immigrants exacerbates population decline - who can afford a kid if you can't afford a house/healthcare?

There's a reasonably good case to be made for connectivity/smartphones being the prime driver of lowering birthrates - that being, irrespective of house prices, female education, etc (which all contribute), adoption of technology coincides with a large falloff of human coupling.

The more cynical part of me views governments as not actually being in favour of naturalized population increase, as this is slow and expensive (takes a while to raise a new worker, and doing so consumes a lot of resources).

Perhaps it is all heading to a very low global population, the rates will vary wildly.

by profile | 22nd Apr 25, 6:32pm 1745303552

Reasonably good case? Smart phones way to late to the party.

There are three major reasons for the rapid decline in the global fertility rate:

the empowerment of women — increased access to education and increased labor market participation
declining rates of child mortality
rising costs of bringing up children, with the decline of child labor

https://ourworldindata.org/global-decline-fertility-rate#:~:text=There%…

by J.C. | 21st Apr 25, 3:19pm 1745205577

Despite rampant migration, a chicken parmi and a pint still knocking back Aussies $47. ABC takes on the issue. Yet in the demographic disaster zones, it's still affordable to eat out. ABC takes on the issue.

“The rich, relative to the middle, are getting richer, but when we compare those in the middle to the poor — the bottom 10 per cent of the wealth distribution — the gap between those two groups is narrowing.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-21/can-australia-still-afford-the-p…

by IT GUY | 21st Apr 25, 7:10pm 1745219432

It feels the same here in NZ, in fact it feels expensive just to go to Pak n Save.

How do we fix a cost of living crisis?

by interesting1234 | 26th Apr 25, 10:21am 1745619714

We have to address growth as the focus and change that to be the welfare of our people. To do that however, would impact the wealthy in ways unpalatable to them. Nobody is willing to ‘give up’ something to help others and when taken from them by legislative force, they recoil and lash out with lobbyists, lawyers and accountants, peddling influence ln any way possible to negate the impending changes.

by macca | 22nd Apr 25, 10:50am 1745275832

Now NZ needs to fall into line with most western countries (eg Canada, Australia) and remove the ability of non-citizens (ie residents) to vote in central govt elections. Only citizens should be allowed to vote or join the military.