A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; longer fixed terms in favour, residential build costs ease, online retail positive, ANZ profit 'jumps', Crown accounts worse, swaps stable, NZD slightly lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union cut their one and two year fixed rates today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank cut a number of rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GOING LONGER NOW
Homeowners are making a big shift to fixed mortgages with longer terms. The latest monthly RBNZ figures show that in March one and two-year fixed mortgage terms were very much back in vogue, while far fewer customers went for floating terms.

MORE AFFORDABLE?
The average estimated build costs for new homes has been slowly declining. Further, the large fall in the estimated build costs of retirement village units possibly signals a shift towards more affordable housing in the retirement sector.

ANZ PROFIT 'JUMPS', BUT ...
ANZ NZ reported a +23% jump in half-year profit, boosted by hedging gains. Without the hedging adjustments, their half year profit was up just +0.5% to $1.161 bln. CEO Antonia Watson sees both green shoots and challenges ahead. (When reporting profits, bank bosses always say the future is uncertain.) They say almost 40% of home loan borrowers are ahead on repayments by at least 6 months.

LARGE RECENT DETERIORATION
The nine month Crown accounts to March 2025 were released today and the covering commentary noted they came in close to the last HYFEU forecasts. But a year-on-year comparison shows an Operating Balance deficit of -$4.484 bln compared to a +$1.740 bln surplus in the year to March 2024. It is also a large a negative shift at the OBEGAL level, -$8.370 bln for the nine months to March 2025, compared to -$5.039 bln for the same period in 2024. Just isolating the March month, this year the OBEGAL deficit was -$1.790 bln, substantially larger than the -$828 mln in March 2024.

BETTER RETAIL AHEAD?
NZ Post's online retail commerce update for Q1-2025 is suggesting that the segment is growing again. They say we spent $1.5 bln online on physical goods in the first quarter of2025, +7% more than the year before. The average shopper purchased more often and spent more online overall in this quarter than one year ago, they noted.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. That means it is up +3.4% for the past week, down -3.9% since the start of the year, and up +6.6% from this time last year. There are 42 gainers today led by Gentrack, Synlait, The Warehouse and Chorus. There are 33 decliners led by Ryman, Restaurant Brands, Infratil and Summerset.

STRONG DEMAND
There were 119 bids today for the $450 mln in NZ Government bonds tendered in three maturities. Almost $1.7 bln was bid, but only 37 of the bids won anything. Yields were slightly lower for the April 2029 amd May 2036 maturities, but higher for the rare May 2051 maturity.

IMPOSING CREDIT STANDARDS
In Australia, they changed their laws making it clearer that buy-now-pay-later contracts were covered by their National Credit Code (which is Schedule 1 to their National Credit Act). ASIC has now issued regulatory guidance for the BNPL sector.

SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today across all durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.39% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.53% and was down -8 bps to 4.48% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.29%, down -1 bp.

EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
The NZX50 is up +0.2% today, and the ASX200 is also up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.2% as well in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.1% while Shanghai is up +0.8%, both sensing positivity due from the upcoming trade talks. Singapore has opened unchanged. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +0.4% on the S&P500 after some volatility when the Fed gave its briefing.

OIL SLIPS
The oil price is down -US$1 at US$58.50/bbl in the US, and US$61.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS LOW BUT FIRMISH
The carbon price is risen +50c to NZ$50.50/NZU and again on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$12/oz from yesterday at this time to US$3401/oz.

NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.1, and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES FURTHER
The bitcoin price is at US$98,774 which is up +2.4% from the price this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at +/- 1.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».