Population growth from migration recorded a big fall in the March year, according to Statistics NZ estimates.
Statistics NZ says migration produced a net population gain of 26,351 in the 12 months to March this year. That's down 74,024, or 74%, from a net gain of 100,375 in the 12 months to March 2024. It's also well shy of the 74,466 gain in the 12 months to March 2023.
The sharp drop in net migration was caused by fewer people arriving in New Zealand long-term, and an increase in the numbers leaving long-term.
An estimated 149,607 people arrived on a long-term basis in the 12 months to March this year. That's down from 207,064 in the year to March 2024, and 172,050 in the year to March 2023.
Heading in the opposite direction, 123,256 people departed these shores long-term in the 12 months to March this year, which was an all time high. This was up from 106,689 in the year to March 2024 and 97,584 in the March 2023 year.
The number of long-term departures has increased in every March year since 2017, apart form 2021 when pandemic travel restrictions were in place.
There was net loss of 44,857 New Zealand citizens in the year to March 2025, and a net gain 71,208 non-NZ citizens.
The estimated net loss of 44,857 NZ citizens was caused by 70,016 people departing long-term, while 25,159 arrived back long-term after an extended stay overseas.
The biggest source countries for non-NZ citizen migrant arrivals in the March year were India 23,571, China 18,979, The Philippines 12,331, Sri Lanka 6023, UK 5037, Australia 4510, USA 3589 and South Africa 3463.
9 Comments
Seems like the January and February net migration has revised down substantially, will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
It seems those ho came before have told others NZ isn't all it was expected to be, as with Australia and their current challenges making it slightly less of a pull to make the leap.
It's fairly common for potential migrants to look at pay rates in places like Aus and NZ, and see that as a massive increase from their domestic incomes. And then they get a shock when they work out the incomes are relative to the expenses.
Headwinds continue. Less imported renters, sales down, increasing unsold stock, mortgage default the highest since GFC, and bank lending continuing to be very thorough. That a bank recently was calling out 5-9% gains is just looking like complete blindness.
Bank lending more relaxed than it has been in years, Interest rates lower than they've been on years, Mortgage lending creeping higher, Property values staying flat & certainly not crashing....
Economy tanking and Winter is coming.
I have a French family renting for a few months. They popped over to Australia for the school holidays. NZ immigration made them reapply for entry. Took ages to get in. I wonder if NZ is copying USA?
The biggest property crash, that NZ has seen since the 1970's, is about to have its next major toilet flush downwards.
Q: Who will occupy the tens of thousands of vacated housing in NZ?
A: No one.
Immigration will go negative, at this rate, in later 2025.
The NZ Property Ponzi peaked in 2021, crashed like a rock and won't be seen again, for over a decade.
With capital losses the most likely scenario over the coming years, investors should be demanding 10% yields on property income.
Close to zero population growth explains why property managers can't find tenants at the moment, or is it because houses couldn't be sold so entered the rental market flooding supply
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