Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news equity markets and cryptos hit records as investors go all-in on greed, ignoring the bond market warning signals.
With a US breaking point becoming clearer, it is hard to know why rich investors willfully ignore the consequences of the Trump cult. They may be the first to be hurt and have the most to lose.
First in the US, the level of tariff-taxes being imposed on Americans is becoming clearer. The latest US Government accounts show them hitting US$27 bln in June, US$113 bln for the nine months to June. Tariffs are paid by the importer and become a cost that will be embedded into how those products are sold. Treasury officials anticipate further growth in tariffs collected, expecting them to reach US$300 bln in the 2025 calendar year.
Those added taxes allowed the US Federal Government to report a +US$27 bln surplus in June. In June 2024 they reported a -US$71 bln deficit. In the twelve months to June, they have accumulated a -US$1.9 tln deficit, more than the -US$1.8 tln in the 2024 fiscal year.
The tariff boost for June got the benefit of some seasonal shifts, Treasury officials noted. Adjusting for those, June would have shown a -US$70 bln deficit instead of the +US$27 bln surplus actually reported, they said.
Overall US Federal government spending dropped -7.0% in June to US$499 bln. But that was after increased outlays on healthcare, Social Security, defense, and interest on debt. Gross interest in June was $84 bln in the month (US$749 bln for fiscal 2025), the second largest spending line item. (In the ten months to July, interest costs will break through $1 tln for the fiscal year so far. Its probably a benchmark being breached as you read this. And it may reach US$1.4 tln in the current fiscal year to September.) If the bond market keeps adding risk premiums to US Treasury debt it could well grow to challenge the US$141 bln monthly social security cost and matching of breaching the the annual cost of social security. It doesn't seem far fetched, given that the new Trump budget locks in huge tax cuts for the rich.
The USDA WASDE July report released overnight reported that American grain farmers are facing low prices and a supply glut, made worse by the tariff policies (although the report itself didn't say that). It did note that US cattle prices are soft, but beef imports are rising. And it noted that US milk production is rising again. Cheese prices were lowered but they did see SMP exports rising from the US. Their forecast for 2026 is for higher dairy prices.
Across the border and in something of a surprise, the Canadian labour market strengthened in June. Not only did they generate +83,000 new jobs in the month when no gains were expected, their jobless rate dipped when it was expected to rise. Even though +70,000 of those new jobs were part-time, the +13,000 new full-time jobs was much better than the -1,000 full-time job losses expected. Even wages rose +3.2% from a year ago, although they did slip slightly from May and have remained flat since January. Given the forces being applied by their bully neighbour, it is hard to know whether this overall June result is just an anomaly or an indication of resilience. Only time will tell.
Canada also released May building consent data overnight and it was also unusually strong, up at a +12% pa rate from April. From a year ago the June consent values were up +5.1% on an inflation-adjusted basis. By any standard this is very good too.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, and up +7 bps from yesterday, up +10 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +52 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now inverted by only -1 bp. And their 3 mth-10yr curve now +10 bps positive. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.36% and up +4 bps from yesterday, up +17 bps for the week. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged today at 1.66%, up +2 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just over 4.53%, up +1 bp from Friday, down -1 bp from a week ago.
Wall Street is slightly softer on the S&P500 and down -0.3% but still near record territory for the weekly close, unchanged for the week. Overnight European markets all fell back by about -0.8%. However all advanced a net +1.5% on average for the week. Tokyo ended its Friday session down -0.2% and down -0.4% for the week. Hong Kong was up +0.5% on Friday for a weekly +1.3% gain. Shanghai was unchanged on Friday, but up +1.2% for the week. Singapore rose +0.3%. The ASX200 ended its Friday session down -0.1% for a weekly -0.3% retreat. The NZX50 was down -0.6% to end its week with a similar -0.6% fall.
The Fear & Greed index is still in the 'extreme greed' zone as it was a week ago as investors like the large benefits from the Trump Budget.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, and up +US$37 from yesterday, and that is up a net +US$18/oz from a week ago.
American oil prices are back up +US$2 at US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$70.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were -US$2 lower.
The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.1 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday and down -½c from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6, down -10 bps than yesterday (restrained because we rose against the yen), and down -30 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,478, a new record high and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. It is up +9.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.4%.
Bloomberg has an in-depth investigation of the murky links between Binance, Trump, and CZ's reach for a pardon.
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19 Comments
The third paragraph is not completely correct. Yes the USA importer is obliged to pay the tariff to the USA customs but that can be, and not unusually, compensated for by a relative reduction in the invoice, the CIF price. That way it is a win, win for the USA, in getting the resultant revenue without passing it on to the US consumer. What it essentially boils down to is market need. Does the market need the product more than the exporter needs the market. For instance even with the tariff the return to the exporter might be better than elsewhere globally. The product may be heavily invested and specifically branded for the USA market. By way of an example there has long been duty on NZ beef which NZ exporters have ultimately met and exactly the same applied when the Clinton administration imposed not only a tariff but a quota on NZ & Australian sheep meat. In that regard quotas are an additional punitive mechanism that Trump appears to be letting rest for the moment.
To put it in perspective, the US10 yr treasury yield is 4.42% and the s&p 500 dividend yield 1.25%. So much for a risk premium.
It's all about the capital gains, which will, of course, continue indefinitely ...
It's all about the capital gains, which will, of course, continue indefinitely ...
Yes. If it's one lesson people need to learn is that the everything bubble cannot die. It's taken me many years to get to grasp with this. But the underlying narrative is simple - the ruling elite and their support base / enablers is run by the boomer generation. They have a strong grip on assets as their 'wealth'. If the market value of these assets deteriorates, they're not happy campers.
So what do people need to watch? Liquidity. As Chuck Prince, former CEO of Citibank said when asked about whether his firm was participating in subprime mortgages said, “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”
And in my mind, this is why the old rat poison has become the 'extreme barometer'.
The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting in August as a potential key turning point for liquidity conditions. Investors should be attentive to policy signals at this event, as it could mark the beginning of a new liquidity expansion phase. Expect the Fed to inject approximately trillions into the U.S. economy up to 2028. This will first flow into traditional financial markets and eventually spill over into risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially driving its price to $1 million.
This may be one of your best posts
And Robert Shiller's CAPE (a proxy for sharemarket valuation on a price vs earnings basis) more expensive/overpriced than in 1929 and 2008. Only the dotcom bubble had a higher period of overvaluation.
P/E ratios vary widely across industries and business models. Comparing P/E ratios between sectors (e.g., tech vs. utilities) is misleading, as growth rates, capital intensity, and risk profiles differ significantly.
So let's assume AI swallows everything. Nvidia's earnings growth explodes. It doesn't necessarily mean that the company's overvalued at this point in time.
Sounds similar to what people were saying leading into the dotcom bust ('the world has changed because of the internet, as such these prices/exuberance can be justified' but replace that now with 'AI')
Reading about Nvidia makes your brain explode. If Moore’s law persists it’s underpriced
Sounds similar to what people were saying leading into the dotcom bust ('the world has changed because of the internet, as such these prices/exuberance can be justified' but replace that now with 'AI')
Yet Aussies and Aotearoans would pay scant attention to the PE ratio of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) because its the engine room of the Ponzi. Their super savings flow into it on a regular basis.
CBA currently trades at a PE ratio of around 31–32, which is exceptionally high for a major bank, well above its global peers.
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US Banks:
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JPMorgan Chase: ~13.3x
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Wells Fargo: ~14.6x
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Morgan Stanley: ~13.6x
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European Banks:
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UniCredit: ~6.4x
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ING Groep: ~7.4x
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Lloyds Banking Group: ~7.5x
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https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/dilworth-trust-wins-court-case-to-e…
They allowed a molesterer to stay on yet charge $4000 per week to an 86yo to use a bare section on a busy road. They hammer him with unnecessary court judgements and strip him of his residence and asset. The language I'd like to use to describe these dilworth people is not printable.
The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, and up +US$37 from yesterday, and that is up a net +US$18/oz from a week ago.
Historic night for silver. Highest close price on silver since 2011 and a 50-year cup and handle formation for the nerds.
The tradfi people have been short a record 404 million ounces - more than 150 days of global mine supply. This massive short position at around $37.50 but now the silver price has has surged to $39. They’re trapped and the breakout setup is explosive.
The AFR today shows that almost all the income growth over the past decade has gone to older Australians, when people are already wealthier, while younger workers have seen little improvement.
I don't entirely agree with the assumptions on income growth in this analysis that suggests "Gen Z, typically considered individuals born between 1997 and 2012, will likely end up richer than their parents. But it will come much later in life, via wages, inheritances and housing wealth."
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/will-gen-z-be-richer-than-their-pare…
if you want to see Adam Curtis latest Shifty its here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qtIbWNMwKY
The first scene is such a shock.... as it goes on...
if you want to see Adam Curtis latest Shifty its here.
Cued up.
For anyone interested in the momentum of the BRICS multipolar initiatives and the own goal effects Trump's tariff policies have had, here is a summary by Ben Norton - a very reliable geopolitical analyst.
In spite of his young age, Ben has an encyclopedic knowledge of geoeconomics, geopolitics, and history.
I am horrified that >90% of Kiwis choose to ignore, what is in essence, the most monumental paradigm shift in global trade patterns, reserve asset allocation, capital allocation, logistics, connectivity, multipolarity, and security in history.
As I have said before on this forum, it appears that NZ is ignoring this juggernaut in the hope that it will simply disappear - this is a foolish 'strategy' - one that will have immense repercussions on our economy in the future.
I suspect it is not just NZ – discussions about threats to the status quo (western debt based financial system) do not get encouraged to avoid accelerating the threat to the current system.
The BRICS appeared 10+ years ago, however I’m guessing Trump is saying the quiet bit out loud as their actions (and the follow-on effects) are getting too big to ignore. For instance the increasing demand for the precious metals do not reflect confidence in the $US. The recent rise in the silver price is probably the latest canary in the coal mine.
Indeed. BTW, Aotearoa is trying to court Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam quite aggressively - all BRICs partner countries now.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are woefully ignored.
I think we overestimate their interest in us.
The IMF always appoints a European as its Managing Director.
Since its founding in 1946, all IMF Managing Directors have been European nationals, including from Belgium, Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, and most recently Bulgaria.
The World Bank Group always appoints an American citizen as its President. All World Bank Presidents, from Eugene Meyer in 1946 to the current president, have been U.S. nationals. Some were naturalized Americans, but all held U.S. citizenship at the time of their appointment.
So much for meritocracy and promotion of democracy when the Global South never gets leadership.
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