Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Avanti Finance reduced its mortgage rate (by -45 bps). All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS and UnityMoney reduced their term deposit rates. Dosh, Wedge and UnityMoney reduced their savings account rates. (Grab those rare 4% rate offers quick now.) All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NO POLICY CHANGES HAVE MADE ANY DIFFERENCE (YET)
It's a 'different month, same story' for the flagging services sector which remains in contraction, suggesting the help from the Reserve Bank's jumbo cut to the Official Cash Rate last week can't flow through fast enough.
SLOWED TO A TRICKLE
Population growth from migration is now averaging less than 1000 a month, but in a shift fewer NZ citizens are leaving the country long term.
A SLOW (GRINDING) IMPROVEMENT
Tourism arrivals continue to grow modestly, with +2.2% growth in August, following 2.7% growth in July, all on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis. August arrivals represent 92% of August 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels, up from 85% in August 2024, demonstrating a slow but steady tourism recovery. H/T Infometrics.
EARLY WELCOME SIGNS?
A tepid expansion is also all you see in ANZ's tracking of its "truckometer" series. The Light Traffic Index rose +0.5% in September and is +2.6% higher than a year ago – but at least that is the strongest annual growth since March 2024. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index rose +0.9% in the month, and is up +1.7% from a year ago..
MODEST COST PRESSURE
Infometrics reports that their review of Foodstuffs costs from suppliers shows a +2.3% rise in prices they pay.
NZX50 FALLS SHARPLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.9% in its Monday session so far. That puts it -1.1% lower over the past five working days. It is up +2.1% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a sharpish -1.4% today so far. There are gains for Channel Infrastructure, SkyTV, Ryman, AirNZ, and Turners, and declines from Synlait, Fletcher, Kathmandu, Stride Property, and Argosy.
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS
For the prior two weeks we have reported exceptionally high NZGB turnover on the secondary market. But last week, the 'normal' recent levels returned.
HISTORY IS ENDING
You may recall the pandemic's Funding for Lending program, a special liquidity support scheme to keep the economy from having a liquidity crunch. The RBNZ lent the banking system $19 bln for a maximum 3 year term at the OCR cost. Most of that has been paid back now with 'only' $4.3 bln still outstanding. The final repayments will come by the end of November as the three year term expires for the last drawdowns. This program is about to enter history.
MINIMAL CHOICE
We track 'farms for sale' listings, weekly, and have been doing so for more than a decade. 2025 is unusual because listing for farms for sale at this part of the season are unusually low. The pattern of rising listings starting from the late August annual low is still in place, but at only 180 farms nationally listed, this has never been lower. The biggest decreases are in Waikato, Northland and the West Coast. That suggests it is dairy farmers who are not selling/listing and are happy to hold on to their businesses.
STILL TRACKING HIGHER
In a similar tracking of commercial premises 'for lease', the numbers keep on rising. There are now +13% more of these properties being advertised than this time last year, with the increase exceeding +20% in Hamilton, Tauranga and New Plymouth. Only Dunedin, Invercargill, and Palmerston North are recording improvements (decreases).
MORE HOME LOANS, LESS CREDIT CARDS
Updated data from the NZ Banking Association for the six months to June gives some unique insights to the size of some banking sectors. For example, they say there are 2.17 mln unique customers with a credit card, and the average spending was down -2.7% from what they reported six months ago. They say there are 1.4 mln home loans between 1.2 mln customer borrowers. 1.5% of loans are behind in repayments, less than six months ago. They report 22% of homer loan customers have only floating rate loans. 57% have only fixed rate loans, and the rest (21%) have a mix of the two. In this latest six-month reporting period, the number of hardship claims has fallen sharply they say.
COMING SOON
The REINZ says its September data will be available tomorrow morning.
THE BOND WILE E. COYOTE MOMENT
American corporate bond markets are hearing increasing numbers of stories about bond risks and bond collapses, like this one. Involved are some good-sized 'middle' companies (huge by NZ standards). Billion-dollar companies like Saks, New Fortress Energy, Tricolor, and the latest, First Brands (of Fram oil filter and Autolite spark plug fame). A key feature of these collapses is the speed at which they went from 'trading' to 'bust'. It is unnerving some on Wall Street.
SWAP RATES HELD HOSTAGE
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be lower today for longer durations but not sure about the short ones. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps on Friday at 2.55% after Thursdays big OCR correction. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from Friday at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is down an outsized -11 bps at 1.75%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.16%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Friday's rate up +3 bps to 4.14%. The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps at 4.08%.
EQUITIES ALL OPEN SHARPLY LOWER
The local equity market is now down -0.9% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.0%. Hong Kong is down another -2.0% at its open. Shanghai is down -1.3% from yesterday. Singapore is down -1.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Friday session down -2.7% on the S&P500 and the futures market suggests it might open tomorrow regaining just +2% of that. But that would still be a net loss from this adjustment
OIL ATTEMPTS A RECOVERY
The oil price in the US is up nearly +US$1 from this morning but it is still just under US$60/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$64/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades again today so the price has held at $55.50/NZU which is its lowest since July. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$35 from this morning, now at US$4051/oz and back to its ATH levels of Wednesday and Thursday last week. Silver is up at almost US$51/oz.
NZD FIRMS FROM LOWS
The Kiwi dollar has risen +20 bps from this morning and is now at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 88 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps at just under 62.
BITCOIN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price is now at US$115,953 and is up +1.5% from this time this morning;s open. Volatility has again been moderate, just on +/- 2.6%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
<
17 Comments
Going down like a fat dog on wet lino
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/205m-auckland-property-failure-cred…
They can talk about an extra 2million apartments around railway stations all they like, not sure you can build them and actually sell them now days....
That’s assuming “now days” last forever ITG, not saying I’m overly sad to see some of these fellas trip over…but if they all go and we end with nothing getting built then surely that’s a recipe for a shit storm again at some point down the line 🤷🏻♂️
well we have to get through the existing shit storm first as now no one is going to extend further finance to the walking dead...
so they have to be killed off and then
new rise from the ashes, as China proves it takes a long time to kill zombies
Wow. The conspiracy theorists are being supported by Bloomie on a silver squeeze who reckon a historic short squeeze has gripped the London silver market - causing silver prices to soar above $50 an ounce for the first time since 1980. They think the event has been triggered by a combination of rapidly dwindling physical inventories in London, heightened industrial and investment demand, and intensified by global economic and trade tensions.
Those holding short positions faced crippling borrowing costs - overnight rates rising 100%+ annualized, and traders struggled to find physical silver to deliver or roll forward their contracts.
Silver has flipped gold as best performing commodity in 2025: (+61%) and Gold (+53%).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/silver-squeeze-evoke…
Gold and Silver resuming their rise to new ATH's. IMHO, it's only the beginning of the worldwide paradigm shift away from the USD and into precious metals, helped along with each of Trumps never-ending tariff threats and TACOs.
it's only the beginning of the worldwide paradigm shift away from the USD and into precious metals
Do you think Ponzinomics and a new monetary order can coexist Dr Y? In the near term, I think they're going to have to.
Interesting question. I think they are different phenomena and they will coexist some time, but they don't need to. Ponzi appeals to human's emotions, like FOMO, but a new monetary order is created out of necessity, mostly a function of reason and logic. Of course there is always some crossover between the two, but I think they are not directly correlated.
If the intrinsic value of gold is greater than dirty fiat, that has direct implications for Ponzinomics. Why would someone want to be a creditor to a bank (deposits) if holding gold were more attractive?
That should have direct implications for Ponzinomics and banks' business models.
It would be good if someone took the time to analyse the extra profits banks made from the FLP program now that its winding down. Then asked whether the government made enough from the extra corporate taxes than what the program cost us...
Vittoria Shortt said that FLP was not intended as a cheap source of lending so ASB / CBA could make out like a bandit (and stoke her and the top brass' bonuses).
She said it was for the people who would benefit from housing supply, infrastructure, and climate transition initiatives.
How much was lent then parked in ESAS at OCR?
What? Like a journalist?
No bank movements down in the fixed rates yet.
Wil E. Coyote moment and link as above has more than the clutter of dominoes about it. Run rabbit, run!
Run… but in which direction ?
Run rabbit, run
Dig that hole, forget the sun
When, at last, the work is done
Don’t sit down, it’s time to dig another one.
Aussie govt has backtracked on changes to unrealised capital gains and adjusted tax concessions for larger superannuation balances (AUD3 million) following ongoing concerns from businesses and economists.
Feeling the heat.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/the-six-superannuation-changes-in-t…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.