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Dip buyers need to be very brave indeed. Global markets turn sharply negative

Economy / news
Dip buyers need to be very brave indeed. Global markets turn sharply negative
[updated]
6th Feb 26, 8:49am by David Chaston
Worried trader

Here are some quick updates of overnight economic action that affect the global economy. (Updated as at 9:30sm.)

Wall Street is in retreat. The S&P500 is down -1.2% -1.0% so far today, and down -2.0% -1.8% for its week so far.

The US Treasury 10 year has fallen -11 bps -8 bps to under 4.18% 4.21%.

Gold is down to US$4778/oz US$4833/oz, down -US$188/oz -US$132/oz. Silver is down harder to US$71/oz.

Oil is down -US$3 to US63/bbl in the US, US$67/bbl for the international Brent price.

Bitcoin is down to US$63,624 US$65,810, down more than -12% -10% overnight, down -28% -25% from the start of 2026. It has halved in four months.

The ECB held its key policy rate at 2.0%. (The English central bank held in unison.)

US job openings, as reported by their December JOLTs report, came in at their lowest level since September 2020, far below what was expected.

The Fear & Greed index has turned sharply lower, now well in the fear zone.

We will have a full weekly wrap-up in our Weekend Briefing tomorrow.

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65 Comments

by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 8:56am 1770321364

AI impacting traditional SW stocks as well

Open AI announce frontier, an AI to organize agents into a hive mind.

What a time to be alive!

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 9:09am 1770322148

If the money in people's bank accounts halved in 4 months people would be screaming Hyperinflation.

And if one of the only arguments for something like Bitcoin is to be your store of wealth, free from Central banking interference, plummets in value in a risk off environment....

How good a store of value is it? It's like it's fans never considered that the good times might end, and you need food and electricity more than digital money.

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 9:15am 1770322540

You mean like WGTN houses being down like 29% in 4 years?

Its possible, like Spruikers, many BTC holders will say you only lose if you sell.

I have always considered this to be the peak of stupidity.

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 9:51am 1770324701

You mean like WGTN houses being down like 29% in 4 years?

Yeah, like that, but 10x faster and twice as bad. 

Oh, and you can't live in your Bitcoin. Or rent it out.

Oh forgot another; you probably paid for your Bitcoin with cash, the bank is not sharing the "loss" with you. It's all your money, all gone.

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 10:03am 1770325421

They are both the same thing, you speculatively overpaid for an asset compared to its earning potential. But in the case of Bitcoin, you overpaid by 100% because it has no earning potential. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 10:28am 1770326922

Housing as a guarantee of financial betterment involves some level of faith, but also there's an obvious cost and utility.

Bitcoin's value is 100% faith based.

 

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 11:12am 1770329542

No this is the issue, a huge amount of BTC trading is now leveraged based, forcing closeouts.

Any asset class can be leveraged, just not by typical numpties.

 

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 1:14pm 1770336864

Next level numpties.

But the majority of wallets don't have a lot in them, safe to say most of that's been bought with cash.

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 4:13pm 1770347598

Agree, like TAB accounts

Top Bitcoin Holders (2025–2026)

  • Satoshi Nakamoto: Believed to hold ~1.1 million BTC, which has remained unmoved for over a decade.
  • Spot ETFs: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed 1.1 million BTC in combined holdings, making them the largest aggregate holders. BlackRock’s IBIT is a leader, holding roughly 778k BTC.
  • Exchanges: Binance manages the largest exchange cold wallets, holding ~629k BTC (as of Jan 2026), followed by Coinbase and Bitfinex.
  • Corporate Treasuries: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the leading corporate holder with over 672,000 BTC, representing over 3% of the total supply.
  • Governments: The U.S. Government holds a significant stash, approximately 328k BTC (as of Jan 2026), primarily from criminal seizures, with an established Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announced in March 2025. 

Distribution and Wallet Analysis

  • Total Wallets: There are over 475 million Bitcoin addresses created.
  • 1 BTC+ Club: Approximately 950,000 to 1 million wallets hold 1 BTC or more, according to data from early 2026.
  • Wealth Concentration: While millions hold small amounts, a small percentage of addresses control the majority of the supply. The top 100 addresses hold nearly 14.7% of all circulating coins.
  • Retail Holdings: A significant majority of addresses (approx. 74% as of Nov 2023) hold less than 0.01 BTC ($350-$400 range).
  • Small Holders (Shrimp/Crab): Despite high concentration, smaller holders (holding <10 BTC) have been increasing their holdings, indicating a broadening, more decentralized base of ownership. 

Key Trends in 2025-2026

  • Institutional Shift: ETFs have become the primary vehicle for large-scale institutional accumulation, often acting as a "sticky" supply.
  • "Digital Fort Knox": Governments are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a strategic, long-term asset, reducing the velocity of supply.
  • Active vs. Dormant: While many old wallets remain dormant, a significant number of "whales" (1,000+ BTC) have been active in accumulating during market dips in 2025-2026.
  • Lost Supply: Estimates suggest that between 3 and 4 million BTC are lost forever, which effectively increases the scarcity of the remaining circulating supply. 
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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 6:44pm 1770356667

Yeah so think of it this way

In the "ponzi", we have all the profiteering and nonsense we talk about. But also, genuine commerce, people making, buying and selling stuff they need for their day to day lives. We'll pay for a musician to sing for us, a therapist to heal us, or someone to prepare an amazing meal for us. And most of the population, are generally nice sensible people.

In the Bitcoin community, nothing exists but whales and aspirationally wealthy types looking for the next greater fool.

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by  KKNZ2025  |  6th Feb 26, 7:01pm 1770357704

As to the exception that may prove the general rule I know of a middle aged Wellington mother who bought 2 BTC for her teenage sons as novel presents around 2010...for ~US$100 ea.

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 7:14pm 1770358488

I'm sure there's some decent people involved.

The overall setup and underlying motivations though, fairly shakey. They end up eating each other.

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by  ghytresd  |  6th Feb 26, 11:51pm 1770375087

BTC high mark in 2010 was 0.39 USD - AI tells me

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 9:47am 1770324473

Fixed assets of little real value (which really includes gold and silver) are becoming speculative casinos. 

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 12:20pm 1770333644

I actually think that golds rise is attracting BTC holdings   ie sell btc buy gold

If I had made a fortune from BTC I would want diversification

 

 

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by  profile  |  6th Feb 26, 9:46am 1770324364

AirBnB vetting really needs to improve.

Las Vegas bio lab raid possibly tied to California case, federal Chinese investigation

https://www.8newsnow.com/investigators/las-vegas-bio-lab-raid-possibly-…

https://abcnews.go.com/US/housecleaner-multiple-illnesses-tied-las-vega…

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 10:02am 1770325367

Can all the fiat naysayers finally admit they were completely wrong? Fiat changes in value by 7% in a year and we think it’s the end of the world, alternatives like Bitcoin and gold can do more than that in a day. 

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 11:13am 1770329591

USD has lost about 97% of its value since leaving the gold standard, its the frog in the heating pot thing

 

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 7:53pm 1770360780

Who cares? As long as my paycheck buys pretty much the same thing a few months later, and the local store doesn’t have to adjust their prices every month, then that’s a good currency. Unlike gold or Bitcoin where the local shop would need to change their prices daily, that’s a pile of crap that only the president of El Salvador would rate. 

Imagine if Dominos sold pizzas in Bitcoin. Probably like 300 coins a decade or so ago, now a tiny fraction of a coin. And they would have had to increase their prices by 12% today alone. Utter rubbish. 

Sure if you want a long term store of value then fiat ain’t your thing, but duh everyone knows that, invest it in something or put it in a bank and earn interest. You should be able to do much better than store value. 

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 7:49pm 1770360560

The fact that you get 8 likes and I get 1 suggests that interest commentators think gold or Bitcoin would be better than fiat. You guys obviously prefer chaotic day to day lives with prices changing dramatically daily just so you can keep money under your mattress. Seems odd to me but whatever floats your boat I guess. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 8:19pm 1770362393

That's the joke, FIAT has been the most stable form of value in the past 5+ years.

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by  Albert2020  |  6th Feb 26, 2:52pm 1770342760

Why are you trying to value gold in fiat? Back in the 1920’s one ounce of gold ($35) would buy you a luxury suit. That same ounce of gold today also buys you a luxury suit. You would be lucky to buy a tie with $35. 

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 7:38pm 1770359935

Back in 1920 if you’d invested that ounce of gold in property or shares or even a saving account it would most likely buy much more than a suit. Why would anyone need a long term store of value, what’s the use case?

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by  Pa1nter  |  7th Feb 26, 1:17am 1770380244

I have a big surplus I don't want to risk in shares or a bank account, or anything productive.

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by  interesting1234  |  6th Feb 26, 10:30am 1770327032

JC frothing at the ratty drop, waiting for the further plunge to jump in. What a year 2026 will be.

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 10:40am 1770327616

This is the big one boys 

My bags are packed 

Off to the Copa Cabana

Women will want to be me, men will want to be with me. Or was it the other way round?

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by  Foxglove.  |  6th Feb 26, 12:09pm 1770332943

Have a bob each way. Choose a trans.

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 12:21pm 1770333672

Ladyboy surprise

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 11:15am 1770329727

I think investors are suddenly aware of the disruptive nature of AI, now I am not saying it justifies the high valuations of some AI companies, the revenues may not come, but its the most disruptive thing I have seen since the PC and the internet.

 

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by  Zachary Smith  |  6th Feb 26, 11:39am 1770331144

JC once told me he would be ecstatic to see BTC drop to below 10K or something like that. Chance to hoover up all those cheap coins.

When will people see this is how it works? It's a type of perpetual Ponzi engine.

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 1:16pm 1770336987

It's only ever existed in times of easy money and abundant goods and services.

If times get tough enough, there won't be the same volume of collectors with the means and appetite.

Could bounce one or two more times though for sure.

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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  6th Feb 26, 4:27pm 1770348441

JC once told me he would be ecstatic to see BTC drop to below 10K or something like that. 

Yes indeed Z. Back up the truck at 10K. Borrow to the the hilt.

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by  NZGecko  |  6th Feb 26, 12:02pm 1770332563

BTC:  The Biggest scam, since Bernie literally Madoff with 18Bilion.



Don't get suckered into a digital money-making idea, that some took seriously.

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by  Foxglove.  |  6th Feb 26, 12:11pm 1770333080

Learnt the hard way long ago. If you don’t understand it, don’t touch it. Didn’t even bother to try and understand this craze nor its participants.

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 12:22pm 1770333729

Do you feel the same way about gold?

 

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by  NZGecko  |  6th Feb 26, 12:50pm 1770335449

I've always respected and understood Golds place in mankind's mind, belief, desire and acceptance of goods exchange.



5000 years of digging, chasing, hoarding and decorating ourselves with it, will extend long past this temporary RatBitShit mania.....



Not saying digital money wont exist, but is must be backed absolutely by something long valued/income producing or a Govt most people trust.

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by  KKNZ2025  |  6th Feb 26, 12:56pm 1770335761

"Not saying digital money wont exist, but is must be backed absolutely by something long valued/income producing..."

Real estate (the clue is in the name)

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by  NZGecko  |  6th Feb 26, 2:43pm 1770342185

Sounds risky to be overly exposed to Real Estate.  Gold, silver, copper are Real too.......  

While dirt its indeed real, it has dropped a REAL -45% since late 2021 in the big cities.  Even with mortgage rates dropping, the RE slide continues unabated.

 

Now rates are into a hiking cycle again,  vacancies soaring, a further leg down in RE is most likely.

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by  Foxglove.  |  6th Feb 26, 12:59pm 1770335953

No I am simply of an age where  inviting any risk would be imprudent.  To pull out an old one, the best return on capital for me is the return of the capital.

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 1:44pm 1770338655

I think you've got a couple decades on me but I'm the same way. I want my money making more money, and actually making it, not just via appreciation.

Never really entrusted much of it with someone else to do that for me. Figures can be fudged and fables can be told.

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by  Yvil  |  6th Feb 26, 1:50pm 1770339055

A good way to think about money IMO.

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by  KH  |  6th Feb 26, 1:39pm 1770338364

I quite like the idea of gold

  It would not be 'miners' or whatever.  It would have to be coins that klink.

But but.  Am thinking 50/50 that the current gold excitement is yet another bubble.  So not getting involved.

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by  KKNZ2025  |  6th Feb 26, 1:45pm 1770338736
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by  nigelh  |  6th Feb 26, 5:22pm 1770351736

The only reason I won't go with them is that they don't accept USD as payment. i don' want an intermediate currency.

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by  KKNZ2025  |  8th Feb 26, 8:07pm 1770534474

You can choose to trade in either AUD or USD when you open an account - this setting can't be changed 

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by  KKNZ2025  |  8th Feb 26, 8:08pm 1770534480

You can choose to trade in either AUD or USD when you open an account - this setting can't be changed 

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by  KKNZ2025  |  8th Feb 26, 8:08pm 1770534488

You can choose to trade in either AUD or USD when you open an account - this setting can't be changed 

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 7:59pm 1770361156

Speculators pump and dump. Property, Bitcoin, now metals. There will be another fad soon and metals will go back to where they were, it’s really not that interesting once it stops appreciating daily. 

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by  Ahuhyeah  |  7th Feb 26, 6:46am 1770399964

Yeah I keep pondering where the money runs to next.  Something new or will it loop back to something its been in and out of already.

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by  Albert2020  |  7th Feb 26, 7:17am 1770401832

Sure there are speculators involved but the underlying fundamentals (increased demand and static supply of the past 5 years) as well as de-dollarisation and geopolitical uncertainty have not changed. Watch the March COMEX. It’s broken, there’s not enough inventory to cover the delivery that will be wanted. Typically those contracts would roll over, not anymore, Industrial users want physical silver now. 

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by  Albert2020  |  7th Feb 26, 7:18am 1770401891

Sure there are speculators involved but the underlying fundamentals (increased demand and static supply of the past 5 years, as well as de-dollarisation and geopolitical uncertainty) have not changed. Watch the March COMEX. It’s broken, there’s not enough inventory to cover the delivery that will be wanted. Typically those contracts would roll over, not anymore, Industrial users want physical silver now. 

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by  Yvil  |  6th Feb 26, 1:08pm 1770336494

Gold and especially Silver continuing their very sharp correction, Gold down 4.7% at $4,692 and Silver down a huge 22% to $65 right now.   Who is brave and who is not ?

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 1:44pm 1770338679
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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  6th Feb 26, 4:27pm 1770348477

Rat poison carnage. 4th worst day this decade. The other 3 were days around something "breaking."

Nov 9, 2022: - FTX collapse: -18%

Jun 13, 2022: Terra Luna Collapse: -16%

Mar 12, 2020, COVID shutdown: -27% and up to 50% fall on wicks

Many of the tourists battered and bruised. On a positive note, those on the band wagon preaching like evangelicals about ratty will be put in their place. That's a good thing.   

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 4:07pm 1770347234

You should also add the stories that were attributed to its biggest rises also. 

So a totally fable based reality.

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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  6th Feb 26, 3:22pm 1770344534

While all the BBQs are buzzing about ratty's demise ("glad I didn't buy any of that crap"), Amazon stock fell -10% after Q4 earnings. Down -15% on the day including after hours move. 

AI stocks getting slaughtered. Plenty happening

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 4:13pm 1770347638

The massive difference being, we can determine a fair value for Amazon, because it has things like earnings and assets.

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by  IT GUY  |  6th Feb 26, 4:18pm 1770347910

SW stocks are heavily held by private credit and kiwi savers as well,  results this week are going to hurt 2026 results IMHO if you have aggressive.

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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  6th Feb 26, 4:47pm 1770349676

Back to the glorious days of Covid, ratty fell to around 4.9k USD at the March 12–13, 2020 “Covid crash” low.

Then, in the space of 18 months, the price peaked around 68.7–69k USD (Nov 2021) - a roughly 13-14x move.

Usually these times of great panic and fear represent opportunities.

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 6:41pm 1770356508

Usually.

This might not be usual. Big jumps in value in short periods might go the way of the dodo.

Then whatcha gonna do

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 8:10pm 1770361828

Exactly. If Bitcoin genuinely held its value, then what’s the point? It’s only useful if it’s swinging wildly, but in that case it’s just robbing Peter to pay Paul. 

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 8:04pm 1770361463

Such a great currency isn’t it. I’d love to be a retailer accepting Bitcoin…

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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  6th Feb 26, 8:12pm 1770361977

Ratty posted its first ever daily decline of USD10K+. In terms of total market loss, not even the record USD19.5 billion liquidation on Oct 10th came close to today.

Don't be surprised if someone "big" was liquidated.

And stretching this across all crypto markets, USD1 trillion has been erased since Jan 14th - $1 trillion in market cap in 22 days or -$45 billion per day.

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by  JimboJones  |  6th Feb 26, 8:08pm 1770361683

I think it’s heading the way I predicted, although it still could have a few more pump and dumps left in it. 

If its price isn’t appreciating, it’s basically pointless, as it’s only redeeming quality is speculative gains. Then people start bailing to put their money into something that is appreciating. These days it’s precious metals. They’ll probably go back to property after that. 

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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  6th Feb 26, 8:20pm 1770362416

Aotearoa banks have pretty much been blocking customers from sending fiat to crypto exchanges. This has now extended to Wise and Revolut (as the banks provide the rails for these tools to complete the transfer). Yes, you might be able to get away with buying crypto through Easy Crypto but that's not an exchange and an inferior solution.

My hope is that the markets are turned to rubble - much like the aftermath of Genghis Khan and his Mongol warriors could do to a foe and their environment. That way things can get back to how it used to be with many of the pretenders and conmen relegated to the sidelines.  

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by  Pa1nter  |  6th Feb 26, 8:48pm 1770364087

Aotearoa banks have pretty much been blocking customers from sending fiat to crypto exchanges. This has now extended to Wise and Revolut 

Yeah, cause most people dabbling in crypto lose money, or get frauded somehow.

The crypto dream is about as asinine as people declaring themselves sovereign citizens who shouldn't expect to have a warrant and driver's license, yet want to drive on public roads.

That way things can get back to how it used to be with many of the pretenders and conmen relegated to the sidelines.  

Uhhh, you're wasting a whole bunch of your mental and financial energy on speculative tomfoolery. You're not adding any value.

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by  Phoenix (FKA JC)  |  6th Feb 26, 9:24pm 1770366263

Yeah, cause most people dabbling in crypto lose money, or get frauded somehow.

Well I've never been defrauded by crypto mkts P. 

Does that mean I need banks permission to spend the fiat in my bank account? If I need their permission, wouldn't I be better off keeping stablecoins instead? At least I know it's mine and I can use it as I see fit. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  7th Feb 26, 1:20am 1770380416

Well I've never been defrauded by crypto mkts

You don't need to be. Enough other bank customers have had issues so now the banks are locking down purchases of this stuff. 

Also why would you need a bank account when Bitcoin is so popular and easy to use everywhere?

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