Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RENTS FLAT FOR TWO YEARS
There was a high level of rental housing activity in the March quarter but rents remained flat overall. The national median rent has been unchanged at $600 a week for the last two years, even as rental transaction activity was up strongly in the March quarter.
DAIRY PRICES WILL STAY HIGH
While prices may have stayed elevated, the costs of dairy farming have too. This may crimp global supply flows. Rabobank is forecasting new season 2026/27 prices higher than the current season.
COMMERCIAL VACANCIES CONTINUE TO RISE, SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS
The volume of commercial property advertised for lease continues to rise. It is now 27,775 listings on realestate.co.nz, +4150 more now than at this time last year (+17.6%). +1140 of those extra listings have been in Wellington which is recording the sharpest annual rise (+32%). +476 of this annual rise is in South Auckland, +338 in Christchurch. The other city with a sharpish increase is Hamilton (+313 or +26%). Most other places are recording much more modest increases; in fact all the Auckland regions have seen falling listings since the start of April (including for South Auckland).
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms. (Don't ask about the prices.)
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 32.4 | 21.6 | 29.7 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 10.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 20.0 | 19.5 | 13.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 20, 2026 | 13 | 53.1 | 49.1 | 53.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.0 | 21.7 | 29.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 2.1 | 11.7 | 13.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 17.9 | 12.6 | 12.5 |
| Total NZ stock, May 17, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 55.0 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 30.6 | 19.9 | 27.1 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 4 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 13.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026 | 12 | 56.2 | 46.3 | 47.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026 | 12 | 59.0 | 45.2 | 50.2 |
| Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026 | 11 | 51.0 | 44.3 | 54.1 |
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
NZX50 FIRM AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today, with a weekly rise of +2.1%. It is down -3.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +3.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed from yesterday. Auckland Airport, Air NZ, Contact, and Scales lift the NZX50 to start week, but Gentrack, Vista Group, Investore, and Serko are the main decliners.
HOW THE RICH BUY IN GETS NEW OPTION
The Government has opened a philanthropic option for wealthy investor immigrants. Immigration Minister Erica Stanford says investor immigrants will be able to make philanthropic gifts comprising up to $1 mln of their minimum $5 mln investment in NZ. She says enquiry levels are strong for this 'golden visa' option, the Active Investor Plus Visa Growth Category.
WE BENCHMARK WELL
Fitch has been looking at government contingent liabilities in the Asia/Pacific region. Among all countries in this group, New Zealand benchmarks well. Here is a chart just among the developed economies.
A GREAT START, BUT IT WON'T LAST
Singapore said its Q1-2026 expansion was +6.0% from the same quarter a year ago, bettering the +5.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and better than forecast (+5.1%).. But their are much less bullish on how the year will turn out, revising that to "2%-4%" as Trump's Gulf War takes it toll.
CHINA'S FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT STAYS VERY MODEST
China says foreign direct investment fell -10.3% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Things got off to a negative start, but regained some initiative in April. (April 2025 was a particularly weak base.)
SWAP RATES SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates will probably show another dip in a global flattening trend, all about the 'peace deal' hopes. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.63% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.88%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -6 bps at 2.71% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.67%, down -5 bps from this morning. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate down -3 bps at 4.69%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -8 bps at 4.49%.
EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market has fallen away in the past hour so is now unchanged from its open. The ASX200 opened its Monday up +0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up even more, up +2.8% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.9% and Shanghai is up +0.8% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.5% at its open. Remember, Wall Street is on holiday (Memorial Day Weekend) but the futures market is strong on the 'peace deal' rumours, and the S&P500 futures pre-market trading is currently showing a +1.1% rise from its Friday close.
OIL PRICES DROP
American oil prices are down -US$5.50, with the WTI benchmark just on US$91.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down the same at US$98.50/bbl. These shifts are all reacting to the 'peace' talk and pricing it in as a done deal. That same motivator is affecting the gold price, and the USD value.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been many trades today on the secondary market, but the price has dipped slightly to $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up at US$4560/oz, rising +US$52 from this morning. Silver is now just on US$77.50oz and up +US$2.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning's open against the USD, now just on 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.2 and up +20 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN MARGINALLY FIRMER
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,062 and up +0.6% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.9%.
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11 Comments
the futures market is strong on the 'peace deal' rumours, and the S&P500 futures pre-market trading is currently showing a +1.1% rise from its Friday close.
American oil prices are down -US$5.50, with the WTI benchmark just on US$91.50/bbl, and the international Brent price is down the same at US$98.50/bbl. These shifts are all reacting to the 'peace' talk and pricing it in as a done deal
Really ??? Are we so dumb as not to learn anything from the last 3 months. Trump's tweets are meaningless, Iran and the US/Israel's positions on negotiations are miles apart. There cannot be a peace deal without at least one of the parties making very major concessions, which looks extremely unlikely.
Because it's now a casino, divorced from reality.
Now?
I'd have said that chasm began opening up 30 years ago.
I have begun to wonder if the people directly involved in these markets are thinking that Trump has to be right eventually so maybe this is the time that he is right.
It's only once a day at the most, so not that often for traders with short term memory issues or those with the other form of Trump Derangement Syndrome (i.e. they are deranged in thinking that DJT is a genius, sent by a deity and is leading them on the path to infinite wealth).
Your alternate TDS is not someone I encounter that much. Usually a painful experience.
Many people don't understand that Trump is ultimately a puppet, not some grand emperor directing things on his own reasoning and motivations.
I can't take the credit for coming up with ATDS!
At this point isn't every PUSA a puppet? Controlled by their donors and/or advisors.
At this point isn't every PUSA a puppet? Controlled by their donors and/or advisors.
Correct. But it's much deeper that many understand. World Bank, IMF, BIS are all strings.
That's why many looked at the Orange Swan as making a clean break from all this. Probably wasn't real.
Probably using kremlinology.
Looking at time of time day when the announcement is made, which advisors (if any) are close to him at that time, how many cheeseburgers he's had
SK hynix is a South Korean semiconductor manufacturer and one of the world’s largest producers of memory chips, especially DRAM, NAND flash, and high‑bandwidth memory used in AI/data‑center GPUs.
Employees work 8 hours a day, and most tasks involve robots.
Because of the AI/memory super‑cycle, employees are receiving bonuses of anywhere from USD90,000-400,000. The company has a policy to distribute 10% of its annual operating profit to employees as performance‑based pay over the next decade.
Aotearoa can never be like this.
https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2026/05/01/YI37EWCH3RDM5MFQA…
Some claim that NZ is really part of Asia. NZ as a modern nation is relatively young compared to the centuries on centuries of those nations’ history, the Far East. A way of revealing how different that makes those nationalities to us is to have a look through some of the history of the relative conflicts between them. For example, as far as South Korea, just how brutal and fanatical their troops were when they fought for the South in the Vietnam war.
SK has a pretty sordid history in the Vietnam War, fighting alongside the Allies. Responsible for some horrific atrocities.
That being said, I have a healthy respect for Korean culture.
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