Treasury's forecast surplus 'not at all clear,' says ANZ's Sharon Zollner, while Finance Minister eyes potential further tax measures for banks

It is not at all clear that Treasury's forecast surplus will happen, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said on Friday, given forecasts for the economy beyond "even three months... are uncertain, but certainly four or five years out, anything could happen."

The Government opened the books this week on Budget Day, with Treasury expecting a return to surplus a year earlier than previously forecast.

"This budget is not actually an austere one, it's not a generous one either. It's a pragmatic kind of compromise between the here and now, and the future," Zollner said. "It's not at all clear that the forecast surplus will happen."

"The forecast for how much tax revenue the economy is going to bring in look a bit on the sunny side to us, so there are definitely risks around the outlook in that regard, and New Zealand will have to address any challenges that emerge as we go along."

Treasury said while oil prices could fall more quickly than in its central forecast, "we consider that risks are skewed to the downside." In that scenario, Brent crude oil prices increase to US$135 per barrel for nearly half a year, inflation would surge to 5.4% by the September 2026 quarter, with weaker economic activity, and unemployment peaking at 5.8%.

"Weaker nominal GDP would reduce aggregate tax revenue over the forecast period. As a result, in 2028/29, the OBEGALx is $2.1 billion lower than in the central forecast, although still returning to surplus," it said in the Budget update.

Zollner described the economy as being "in a pretty tight spot."

"People are feeling poorer, and they are poorer. They have to spend more for a necessity, that means they have less to spend on everything else," she said.

"Combine that with lower confidence and uncertainty about how the economy might be going, and you have a recipe for a consumer slowdown as well. So we're not forecasting recession. I don't think anyone is, although obviously uncertainty is very high, but it is very frustrating at best for people feeling they've had the rug pulled out from them, just when things were actually starting to feel better."

'I am still actively considering the taxation of banks'

Part of Budget 2026 included a levy on banks, non-bank deposit takers, insurers and financial market infrastructure providers to pay for Reserve Bank services, estimated to recover around $209 million over the next four years.

The Government was open about internal disagreement over the policy, with National and NZ First wanting to go further than ACT. 

Willis said on Friday the more forceful revenue measure National and NZ First were keen for would have raised more money, but would not go into the numbers as she was "still looking at options and opportunities."

"As a minister in this government, I am still actively considering the taxation of banks," Willis said.

"What that looks like as a National Party finance spokesperson - if this government isn't able to make further decisions on that, then I do expect that we will take policies to the [election] campaign."