Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has cut some home loan rates today for 3, 4, and 5 years with their 2-5 year rates now among the lowest of the big banks. More details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac also trimmed its 3, 4 and 5 year TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BETTER THAN EXPECTED
The economy's activity had a solid start to 2026 with GDP rising by +0.8% in the March quarter. That put it up +1.5% from a year ago on a 'real' basis and even per-capita GDP rose. Revisions to recent history made this a stronger overall result than many were expecting. 'Manufacturing' (especially of primary products) was a key driver top the Q1-2026 result.
FAMILY REUNIFICATION STRONG
Older people aged 60-plus along with children and teenagers made up just over a third of all immigrant residency visa approvals in the May year.
UPGRADE APPROVED
The Commerce Commission has approved the first $1.1 bln stage of a two-stage plan to replace the three ageing Cook Strait cables, install a fourth, and build new termination stations. This will increase inter-island capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,400 MW. The costs will be added to Transpower’s regulated asset base and recovered over the life of the equipment, shared by the electricity consumers and generators that benefit from the HVDC link. Construction will be completed in the early 2030's.
NZX50 LITTLE-CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed again (-0.1%), with a weekly rise now of +1.3%. It is up +0.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged so far today. There have been 42 gainers so far today led by Vista, Synlait, Hallensteins and Freightways. There have been 35 decliners led by AirNZ, The Warehouse, Mainfreight, and Kathmandu.
NZX GETS FMA'S TICK
The FMA has reviewed the NZX and says they meet the requirement to operate the stock exchange properly.
MORE ASIA, LESS AMERICA
Air New Zealand's May metrics shows that their business to Asia is growing while it is declining to North America. Across the Tasman, things were stable. Domestically it expanded.
EASY FUNDRAISING
There were two well-supported NZGB bond tenders today, attracting 49 bids worth $1.58 bln. 18 of those bids for the $450 mln available were successful.
EXCEPTIONAL DEMAND & PRICES
Competition at the farm gate for livestock to keep processing lines running and satisfy rising demand for lamb and beef is seeing prices rise even further. Yes, it is off-season and prices normally rise, but new all-time records are being achieved after essentially no main-season falls. If normal patterns repeat in the July-November period then we are going to see exceptional records created for sheep and beef.
GROWING TWICE AS FAST
Australia's population grew by +412,500 (1.5%) in the year to December 2025 (about the population of Canberra) and was 27,801,000 at that time. For reference, New Zealand's population grew by +34,300 (0.6%) in the same year (about the population of Gisborne) to be 5,342,000.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be higher today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.67% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.79%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.63% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.45%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -7 bps at 4.38%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 4.45%.
EQUITIES MIXED, MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market is now lower from yesterday, down -0.2%. The ASX200 is down -0.5%. Tokyo is has opened up +1.6%. Hong Kong is down -1.8% but Shanghai is only down -0.3% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday with the S&P500 down -1.2% in closing trade. The Nasdaq closed down -1.3%
OIL PRICES LITTLE-CHANGED
American oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$75.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$78.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STILL ON HOLD
There have been few trades again today and the price is still holding at $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$19/oz from this time yesterday, at US$4313/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just on US$69/oz.
NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar has retreated -40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.6 and down -30 bps from this time time yesterday.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,646 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
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12 Comments
China's National Bureau of Statistics in their data release from a few days ago: "the domestic imbalance between strong supply and weak demand is acute."
The Anglosphere: “We need you to consume more. We were hoping you’d buy some crap or some nice-to-haves that we produce / make at uncompetitive prices and maybe send some students here for liberal arts degrees.”
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202606/t20260616_1963952…
This movie does not end well
Can we have also the GDPper capita when the GDP comes out because thats more important to the person on the street.
No it isn't.
GDP accounts everything except that which should be accounted: global resource stocks, current consumption rates, state of the biosphere, and current extent of human overshoot.
Oh, but money. So important.
NZD will continue to fall as it looks more likely that US will lift rates and less likely that RBNZ will actually make 3 hikes, get short before things become risk off
US hikes are not just inflation based maybe the real risk here is USD starts a bull run here, maybe becasue of risk off, i think the market is not positioned for this trade possibility.
Quote:
"Over the last couple of years, Chinese citizens have increasingly invested in overseas securities, and especially in the U.S. stock market. But in recent weeks, Beijing has moved to close informal channels between Chinese households and global capital markets. It gave several Hong Kong and Singaporean-based brokerages with significant mainland clientele two years to wind down those accounts. It expanded rules on overseas investment to explicitly cover individuals for the first time, threatening to confiscate vaguely defined 'illegal gains.'"
"Beijing is pulling every available lever to mobilize the nation’s private wealth as a resource for its state-led drive toward technological self-reliance and national rejuvenation. In a major speech published in January, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, argued that financial latitude must be subordinated to national security, warning that China must guard against not only the risks of opening up but also risks that are “deliberately engineered” by geopolitical adversaries."
They can see that the US stockmarket is an overinflated paper tiger.
And they want them and theirs, as far away from it as possible, before the great correction.
Yes but this is an easy channel to transfer funds, buy UK equities with a HK broker, choose only equities with only a London based share registry, fly to London sell shares after joining a local broker with local settlement account uk based you and your funds are out
what a bastard pretending to be capitalist
At some point china will restrict international tourism, for their own protection, this is 1984 coming true, IMHO Xi will be rolled by a more Liberal youth based faction.
While major revolts can lead to violence, the majority of the bloodshed in historical revolutions is often a result of the ruling class violently suppressing challengers, rather than the act of the revolution itself
Team Albo is scaling back part of its CGT reform after critics warned it would hurt small businesses.
The turnover threshold for accessing small‑business CGT concessions is being increased from AUD2 million to AUD10 million, bringing it into line with other small‑business definitions in the tax system.
Team Albo showing it's all fur and no knickers.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jun/18/albanese-announc…
Team Albo showing it's all fur and no knickers.
You said that and I had a horrible Pauline Hanson vision that has triggered physical anxiety,
Perhaps Albo is having the same visions, that's probably it for me tonight I may need to drink to the point of not remembering that vision, or tonight at all....
While I'm definitely no fan of Pauline's, I can understand why she and ON are the expression of a populist movement. Many Aussies understand they've been shafted by the mainstream political parties. Pauline can use this backtrack as an illustration that Team Albo has little to no substance and backbone.
Trump , Pauline, Forage, god help us Shane Jones next
off for a few pints
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