A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; quiet on the retail rate front, rural exports rise strongly, jobs market soft but better in the SI, El Niño arriving, quotas to mess with beef trade, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Southern Cross Partners raised their rate to 6.0%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

PRIMARY EXPORTS PAY THE BILLS
Exports rose to $8.9 bln in May, a record high and up +$1.4 bln or +18% from the same period last year, according to figures released by Stats NZ. Leading the rise were meat (up +$436 mln), dairy (up +$147 mln), aluminium (up +$134 mln), and fruit (largely kiwifruit, up +$113 mln). These four commodity groups combined made up more than 60% of the export gains. After imports, which rose +26% mainly due to fuel costs (+104%), the May trade balance was an +$800 mln surplus which was -17% lower than in May 2025.

REGIONAL VARIATION
The latest BNZ/Seek Employment Report for May says hiring caution remains, but the South Island is leading the pack when it comes to annual job ad growth while Auckland and Wellington lag.

PREPARE NOW
Forecasters everywhere now expect a 'formidable' El Niño weather pattern to settle over New Zealand in the next few months. It has the potential to be 'significant' this year. During El Niño, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures develop in the central and eastern Pacific, weakening the trade winds, and shifting tropical rainfall towards the central and eastern Pacific. For us that means will are likely to exit winter dryer than normal, heading for very dry conditions in the North, and the East of both islands.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4%, with a weekly rise now of +0.2%. It is up +0.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% so far today. SkyCity casino has surged +14% along with gains from a2 Milk, Meridan and Genesis; The NZX, Kathmandu, Oceania and Spark are the big decliners.

JAPAN AVOIDS INFLATION SURGE
Japanese inflation came in at a low +1.5% in May, only marginally higher than the +1.4% in April. Their food inflation was at an 18 month low.

STOP LIMITED
We should probably note that Australia has just reached its beef export quota to China (205,000 tonnes) and exports above that level will attract a 55% tariff. New Zealand on the other has a quota of 255,000 tonnes before that 55% tariff kicks in, and at current rates we are unlikely to exceed 190,000 tonnes into China. If Australia gets dry and needs to cull its cattle herd, China won't be an option for them. So that could mess with our other (better paying) markets.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be very little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.68% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.79%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.64% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.45%, unchanged as well from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +6 bps at 4.44%.) The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.46%.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The local equity market is now higher from yesterday, up +0.6%. The ASX200 is down -1.0% however. Tokyo has opened up +0.4%. Hong Kong is down -1.6% but Shanghai is only down -0.4% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Thursday with the S&P500 up +1.1% in closing trade. The Nasdaq closed up +1.9%

OIL PRICES SETTLE IN HIGHER
American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$76.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$79.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE TURNS HIGHER
There have been few trades again today but there were some small late trades yesterday and the price has risen +$1.50 to $54.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$137/oz from this time yesterday, at US$4176/oz. Silver is down a very sharp -US$4.50 at just on US$64.50/oz.

NZD WEAK TO END THE WEEK
The Kiwi dollar has retreated another -40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we down -10 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.3 and down another -30 bps from this time time yesterday.

BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,903 and down -2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».