Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ changed fixed rates both up and down. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Bank of Baroda raised rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GOING SOFT
The overnight dairy Pulse auction brought sharply lower prices for the three lines offered. AMF took a -7.5% tumble from last week's full auction event. They didn't release the butter price this time. SMP fell -4.5% from last week and WMP fell -1.9%. But given the retreat of the NZD at the same time (-2.8%) the impact in local currency will be much less.
RENO WORK FADES
Less money is being spent on residential building alteration work, non-residential work is more resilient. The amount of building alteration work being undertaken may indicate it is in a slow but steady decline
TAPPING KIWISAVER FOR FHB HOUSEBUYING GAINS MOMENTUM
KiwiSaver early withdrawals topped $243 mln in May (a record for any May) as political parties roll out KiwiSaver policies ahead of the election. Most of these withdrawals are for FHB housing purchases ($199.1 mln) up +$10 mln from May 2025. Hardship withdrawals eased lower to $43.9 mln, down from $44.2 mln a year ago. More broadly, the level of all withdrawals amounted to 27.2% of all contributions in the same year. This is a record high, with the previous record being 24.9% in 2022.
NZX50 MARGINALLY SOFTER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2%, with a weekly rise now of just +0.1%. It is down -0.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is essentially unchanged so far today. Scales, Turners, Napier Port and Investore Property gain as the overall NZX50 slips; Briscoes, Summerset, Meridian and Hallensteins retreat.
ABOVE TARGET, BUT LESS SO
In Australia, a +6.5% rise in housing costs (mainly from a +21% jump in electricity costs) drove their May CPI 4.0% inflation rate, not fuel or food. But that was lower than the expected 4.4% rate and in fact a four month low. The overall trimmed mean was up 3.6%, a rise from April.
UPSIDE DRIVE
In Japan, the minutes of the last central bank meeting show its decisionmakers view it appropriate to continue raising its policy interest rate, as underlying inflation has been moving toward the 2% target while financial conditions have remained accommodative. They that if the economy and prices evolve in line with the Bank's outlook, further rate hikes would become warranted. Some argued Japan's policy rate remains below the estimated neutral interest rate, seen at around 2%, and should be brought closer to that level. It is currently at 1%.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.72% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.77%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.68% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.43%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -3 bp at 4.42%.) The UST 10yr yield is also down -3 bps at 4.47%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now softer from yesterday, down -0.3%. The ASX200 is little-changed so far, however. Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. Hong Kong is has firmed +0.1% but Shanghai is down -0.5% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.2%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session down -1.4% and the Nasdaq was down -2.2%.
OIL PRICES FALL FURTHER
American oil prices are down -US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$72/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$76/bbl. The driver now seems to be the expectation of lower global demand.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There has been very little trading so far today but there were many late trades yesterday and the price rose +50c to $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RETREATS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$90/oz from this yesterday and falling, now at US$4060/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just on US$61.50/oz.
NZD RETREATS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar has retreated another -50 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI- is now just under 60.5 and down another -30 bps from this time yesterday. and its lowest since November 2025.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,557 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
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23 Comments
Reno residential work fades. It’s no wonder. Unless you are already skilled and knowledgeable you need to be both optimistic and courageous because otherwise you are likely to be entering a self created minefield. Best advice I can offer is employ an independent expert you can trust to monitor and oversee the work involved. As with lawyers 90% of builders give the rest a bad name and alterations, renovations, extensions are an open ended make a killing field for them. No wonder Johnny Cash sang ‘I shot a man in Reno.”
😆
And those mofos go bust too. Not sure how a builder can go bust at their charge outs and fake extras.
Too many ticked up Rangers.
Or one too many ticked up Ranger Raptors.
Rocket Lab's share price down 37% in 3 weeks. Quite a bit of irony in that Luxon is singing the company's praises for innovation, while at the same time the boomers tut-tutting about the speculative nature of current markets and what constitutes prudent investing. For all the avocado toast munching, Robinhood degenerates, I for one salute you for getting in early.
On that note, gem Kioxia Holdings (ex-Toshiba Memory), now up a whopping 3,350% past 12 months. After it had 10x'd in no time, it would have been tough to push the buy button and realize it was a missed opportunity. The 743% return YTD would have unfortunately represented another missed opportunity.
My reckon for the inevitable AI bubble burst is that China will eventually be able to deliver more cost-effective solutions. The bubble bursting could be tomorrow or 2 yrs away. By then we will have economic catastrophe across the Anglosphere - far worse than the sub-prime crisis and the money printers will go nuts. The crypto mkts will go ballistic and don't be surprised to see ol' ratty at USD1 million.
As I sad I like RocketLab, I will like it a lot more at $20 a share, probably enough to buy some.
As I sad I like RocketLab, I will like it a lot more at $20 a share, probably enough to buy some.
So about an 85% fall from all-time high for entry. I'd probably take a bite.
You could have got in at <USD10 in late 2024.
my son did kicking himself for exiting at $30
if they F big rocket fails it will plummet then buy, they will get it right eventually
Is it you or someone else who likes that cut price Japanese chain U-something? they are considering opening in NZ
Uniqlo (parent company Fast Retailing).
They had expressed an interest for quite some time.
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/uniqlo-consider-opening-first-nz-store
Chatter on newstalk drive sounded like action i shappening
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/uniqlo-hints-at-opening-first-nz-s…
Hope so. Similar set-up to H&M but from overseas experience Uniqlo has better quality and style.
H&M NZ has been disappointing.
Wonder if Kiwi property is looking to free up some more space at Sylvia for a Uniqlo market entry
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/special-needs-child-zelensky-may-have-…
Special-needs child’ Zelensky may have the last laugh over Trump
The Trump administration has called him a “little f---er”, but Ukraine’s president increasingly looks as though he holds the future of the West in his hands.
Which man is likelier to be leading his country in 2029, Donald Trump or Volodymyr Zelensky?
The savvy bet would be Zelensky, even if Trump tries to defy term limits.
Having failed to get Zelensky to sign a one-sided mineral rights deal, Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury secretary, referred to Ukraine’s leader as “this little f---er” and the “special-needs child for the Europeans”, according to Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan in their new book, Regime Change.
Children with special needs often have difficulties learning. Ukraine’s capacity to innovate on the battlefield suggests Zelensky does not face such challenges.
There is centuries of tumultuous history that doesn’t make it easy for outsiders to even begin to understand the dynamics and tragedies of Ukraine. Once largely part of the Yuan Mongol Empire, then that of Sweden, then Russia and briefly during WW1 Germany, then the Bolsheviks. A couple of Holodomors under Stalin’s rule and hosted the battleground for both Napoleon’s and Adolf’s fateful adventures. Hardly surprising then that the nation as it finally stands on its own today, has every reason to be distrustful of any foreign influence.
Stage 1....Denial... Psychology: A Defense Mechanism
In psychology, denial is an unconscious defense mechanism where an individual refuses to acknowledge objective facts or traumatic experiences to protect themselves from anxiety or discomfort
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/the-housing-correction-we-had-to-have-w…
Anyone else here want to scream SELL at Aussie friends with rentals?
Did you want to yell it 10 years ago too?
Property is barely on the radar of overpriced assets these days
Will they take the opportunity? https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360997275/opportunity-polls-46-takes-s…
Luxon - I haven't given it any thought'.
Tell us something we don't know.
He's struggling to keep the ménage à trois going, doesn't need a fourth
It is generally accepted, by those who stop to think about it, that the older you get the less you know, you know. Still, as it might seem with our present PM, if you happen to be still preoccupied with learning, then that old adage remains out of touch.
SAUDI ARABIA JUST DUMPED AMERICA
Following Trumps monumental own goal in attacking Iran, we are now witnessing the formation of a new security architecture and power shift for the entire Middle East, AKA West Asia region.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js5J5r6xTok
In this immensely consequential discussion...quoted...
"Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali reveal how Pakistan — not Washington — quietly brokered the Iran–US Memorandum of Understanding at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, and how Saudi Arabia is now signaling a historic move away from the US security umbrella toward a Pakistan-coordinated, China-backed order.
Sources close to the talks describe a 60-day MOU framework, $12 billion (and a possible $24 billion) in frozen Iranian funds underwritten by Riyadh and Doha, and zero face-to-face US–Iran contact — every word passing through Pakistani and Qatari mediators.
We connect the Bürgenstock talks to the bigger story: a Saudi–Pakistan military doctrine, an unsigned nuclear umbrella over the Gulf, Iran's ~440 kg of 60% enriched uranium as the central 60-day question, and the deep-background roles of China and Russia.
President Pezeshkian's first foreign trip since the February 28 war is to Islamabad — confirmed — and Sharif and Field Marshal Munir head to Riyadh this week.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst on Eurasia and the multipolar world; Zulfiqar Ali brings deep Iran–Pakistan sourcing.
Transition Protocol / Power Shift is a serious, source-driven channel delivering evidence-based, high-signal breakdowns of global power shifts — with developing claims clearly labeled."
If we think our Greens are bad, the European Greens also have their heads in the (hot) sand
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gyqldl3p5o
I've been in Paris on a stopover this week with family. Massive traffic in congested streets with noticeable air pollution, few green spaces so its a concrete, tarmac & stone desert - narrow streets & high buildings trap heat & slightly cool overnight. Paris is too far from ocean for sea breeze, Global warming is having much more impact in Europe than NZ for a few reasons including their limitations of centuries of urban re/development unsuited to 21st century environment.
We gave Versailles & outside sightseeing a total miss, currently a heatwave 40deg - 40 people already drowned cooling off in rivers etc. (on a brighter note, decolletage is a big trend). Visited a few museums & Louvre. Leaving tomorrow for cooler weather in Penang (only 30deg).
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