Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ changed fixed rates both up and down. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Bank of Baroda raised rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GOING SOFT
The overnight dairy Pulse auction brought sharply lower prices for the three lines offered. AMF took a -7.5% tumble from last week's full auction event. They didn't release the butter price this time. SMP fell -4.5% from last week and WMP fell -1.9%. But given the retreat of the NZD at the same time (-2.8%) the impact in local currency will be much less.
RENO WORK FADES
Less money is being spent on residential building alteration work, non-residential work is more resilient. The amount of building alteration work being undertaken may indicate it is in a slow but steady decline
TAPPING KIWISAVER FOR FHB HOUSEBUYING GAINS MOMENTUM
KiwiSaver early withdrawals topped $243 mln in May (a record for any May) as political parties roll out KiwiSaver policies ahead of the election. Most of these withdrawals are for FHB housing purchases ($199.1 mln) up +$10 mln from May 2025. Hardship withdrawals eased lower to $43.9 mln, down from $44.2 mln a year ago. More broadly, the level of all withdrawals amounted to 27.2% of all contributions in the same year. This is a record high, with the previous record being 24.9% in 2022.
NZX50 MARGINALLY SOFTER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2%, with a weekly rise now of just +0.1%. It is down -0.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is essentially unchanged so far today. Scales, Turners, Napier Port and Investore Property gain as the overall NZX50 slips; Briscoes, Summerset, Meridian and Hallensteins retreat.
ABOVE TARGET, BUT LESS SO
In Australia, a +6.5% rise in housing costs (mainly from a +21% jump in electricity costs) drove their May CPI 4.0% inflation rate, not fuel or food. But that was lower than the expected 4.4% rate and in fact a four month low. The overall trimmed mean was up 3.6%, a rise from April.
UPSIDE DRIVE
In Japan, the minutes of the last central bank meeting show its decisionmakers view it appropriate to continue raising its policy interest rate, as underlying inflation has been moving toward the 2% target while financial conditions have remained accommodative. They that if the economy and prices evolve in line with the Bank's outlook, further rate hikes would become warranted. Some argued Japan's policy rate remains below the estimated neutral interest rate, seen at around 2%, and should be brought closer to that level. It is currently at 1%.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.72% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.77%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +1 bp at 2.68% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.43%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -3 bp at 4.42%.) The UST 10yr yield is also down -3 bps at 4.47%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now softer from yesterday, down -0.3%. The ASX200 is little-changed so far, however. Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. Hong Kong is has firmed +0.1% but Shanghai is down -0.5% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.2%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session down -1.4% and the Nasdaq was down -2.2%.
OIL PRICES FALL FURTHER
American oil prices are down -US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$72/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$76/bbl. The driver now seems to be the expectation of lower global demand.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There has been very little trading so far today but there were many late trades yesterday and the price rose +50c to $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RETREATS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$90/oz from this yesterday and falling, now at US$4060/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just on US$61.50/oz.
NZD RETREATS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar has retreated another -50 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI- is now just under 60.5 and down another -30 bps from this time yesterday. and its lowest since November 2025.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$62,557 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
2 Comments
Reno residential work fades. It’s no wonder. Unless you are already skilled and knowledgeable you need to be both optimistic and courageous because otherwise you are likely to be entering a self created minefield. Best advice I can offer is employ an independent expert you can trust to monitor and oversee the work involved. As with lawyers 90% of builders give the rest a bad name and alterations, renovations, extensions are an open ended make a killing field for them. No wonder Johnny Cash sang ‘I shot a man in Reno.”
Rocket Lab's share price down 37% in 3 weeks. Quite a bit of irony in that Luxon is singing the company's praises for innovation, while at the same time the boomers tut-tutting about the speculative nature of current markets and what constitutes prudent investing. For all the avocado toast munching, Robinhood degenerates, I for one salute you for getting in early.
On that note, gem Kioxia Holdings (ex-Toshiba Memory), now up a whopping 3,350% past 12 months. After it had 10x'd in no time, it would have been tough to push the buy button and realize it was a missed opportunity. The 743% return YTD would have unfortunately represented another missed opportunity.
My reckon for the inevitable AI bubble burst is that China will eventually be able to deliver more cost-effective solutions. The bubble bursting could be tomorrow or 2 yrs away. By then we will have economic catastrophe across the Anglosphere - far worse than the sub-prime crisis and the money printers will go nuts. The crypto mkts will go ballistic and don't be surprised to see ol' ratty at USD1 million.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.