Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank has trimmed rates for 2 years and longer today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
REVISING
The fast-easing oil price is motivating economists at many of the main banks to reassess their July OCR rate-call expectations. Financial markets price in 19 of 25 bps for the July 8 review (75% chance). But some economists now expect the RBNZ to skip a change then altogether. More here.
PROFITS UP
TSB said it had a strong financial performance for the year ended 31 March 2026, delivering a Net Profit Before Tax of $63.3 million for the year, up 10% on the previous year. It declared $11.5 million in dividends to shareholder Toi Foundation. Toi has agreed to sell TSB to Heartland Group and if all approvals are received as planned, that transaction should become final late in 2026.
STRONG FINISH FROM ROBUST DEMAND
PGG Wrightson says the wool market continues to strengthen at the latest national auction. "The last sale of the season marked a strong finish to what has been an exceptional year for all wool types and styles, with prices reaching historic highs. Buyer demand remains robust, supported by strong global participation, with China continuing to drive renewed interest in natural wool fibres. The outlook for the new season is positive, particularly with high-quality pre-lamb shorn clips soon coming to market. It is encouraging to see wool prices now having a more meaningful impact on growers’ bottom-line returns." Interactive charts are here.
NZX50 ENDING FLAT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1%, with a weekly dip now of +0.2%. It is down -0.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.3% so far today. Vulcan Steel, Freightways, Port of Tauranga and Stride gain while Kathmandu, Vista, Turners, and Hallensteins lead the decliners.
AUSTRLIA TO GET PRICE CONTROLS
In Australia, their competition regulator has been armed with new powers to monitor the pricing policies of the Coles and Woolworths supermarket chains. What is being prohibited is "excessive pricing". But there is no fixed threshold for what is an excessive price for a grocery product. Instead, the ACCC will monitor supermarket pricing information and consider all relevant circumstances, including the cost to supply the product to consumers and what is a reasonable margin for the supermarket, to determine if a grocery product was excessively priced.
"NORMALISATION' OVER
The latest update of the US Fed's balance sheet shows that they have completely paused the quantitative tightening selldown program of bonds and other financial instrument built up during the pandemic crisis. If anything, they have been growing it (minorly) in 2026.
TRACKING AI JOB LOSSES
The epicenter of artificial intelligence research and commercialisation, California, also is home to millions of workers who could potentially be AI victims. So today it has launched an "AI Job Loss Tracker". It is going to be instructive to watch. Their June data, based on their jobless/benefit data activity, hasn't yet picked up any surge, but it is early days.
SWAP RATES BROADLY STABLE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed to slightly firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.72% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.74%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also little-changed at 2.63% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.40%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate down -4 bps at 4.34%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.39%.
EQUITIES RETREAT
The local equity market is softer from yesterday, now down -0.2%. The ASX200 is also down -0.3% so far. Tokyo has opened by retreating -3.8% after yesterday's leap. Hong Kong has retreated -2.2% and Shanghai is down -2.7% at its open today. Singapore is down -0.9%. Wall Street ended its Thursday session essentially unchanged and the Nasdaq was down another -0.5%.
OIL PRICES FIRMER
American oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just on US$71/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$74/bbl after Iran fired on a transiting supertanker and others then abandoned their exit attempts through the Strait of Hormuz.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been few trades today and the price has dipped very slightly to $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up a minor +US$6/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$3987/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just over US$56/oz.
NZD ENDS WEEK SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has retreated another -10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 56.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 60.3 and marginally softer from this time yesterday, still its lowest since November 2025.
BITCOIN ATROPHIES
The bitcoin price is now at US$58,446 and down -3.7% from this time yesterday. Remember it stated the year at US$87,800 so it is down a third since then. It peaked at US$125,000 in October 2025 so it has halved in just nine months. Volatility has been high at just on +/- 3.1%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
4 Comments
‘The man who predicted the dot-com crash and the 2007 housing collapse warns that the AI bubble is the biggest in American history. Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham reveals why it will burst, the exact strategy to protect your money, and why house prices need to fall 30%’
https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/the-diary-of-a-ceo-with-steven-ba…
Probably right. Today South Korea's KOSPI stock market halted after 8% crash triggering circuit breaker after being down up to 10%. But this is becoming "normal" in the "AI-adjacent" KOSPI in recent times - suggesting something's not right.
And on the Anglosphere Ponzis, while Canadians struggle with the cost of unaffordable food, mounting rent and mortgage payments, and taxes on gas, Mark Carney is spending $2 billion of taxpayer money to bail out big Vancouver condo developers and banks so they don’t have to sell at a loss.
The B.C./federal “condo bailout” is socializing losses onto taxpayers and entrenches moral hazard in the housing market. It's a misuse of public funds that props up high condo prices instead of allowing the market to reset to levels affordable for local incomes. All this atop years of ignored warnings about laundered or speculative capital inflating B.C. real estate, with many of the same political actors now orchestrating the bailout.
https://www.thebureau.news/p/moral-hazard-on-steroids-the-investor
Energiewende
job tracker
Germany's Chancellor Merz: "At the moment, Germany is losing between 300 and 500 jobs every single day. Every day, a double-digit number of companies file for insolvency."
2027 Australia university fees were announced today. Next year an arts degree will cost a whopping $54k and a combined degree $90 000.
The Job-Ready Graduates scheme has doubled the cost of arts, law, finance and economics degrees.
It's now been in place longer under Anthony Albanese than Scott Morrison. And this has been described as the worst thing ever to happen to HECS.
This is what is called a "cost-of-learning crisis" which is preventing graduates from buying homes and starting families.
https://www.education.gov.au/higher-education-loan-program/resources/20…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.