A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; consumer sentiment less negative, commercial lease pressure eases, Modi coming, bond spreads ease, swaps hold, NZD firms, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has raised its 6 month and 2 year fixed rates, and lowered its 3, 4 and 5 year fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ has joined its main rivals cutting longer term TD rates. And SBS Bank has raised its 2 year rate by +10 bps to 4.30%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

LESS NEGATIVE
The June ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey has remained deeply negative, but is much less so in their latest release. Overall sentiment lifted 4 points in June to an index level of 91.3 (when 100 is neither positive or negative), back where it was in March. The index is still 16 points lower than its January peak however. The net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose another 9 points to a less negative level. Inflation expectations (2-years ahead) eased from 5.3% to 4.6% in June, back where it was in January before the oil price spike. House price expectations were all but unchanged at 2.5%.

PRESSURE EASING
Our weekly tracking of commercial property for lease (as listed on the realestate.co.nz portal) shows another easing of supply pressure. The peak seems to have been reached in early June and listing levels have started to recede, albeit slowly. And this seems to be true everywhere except in Wellington. In Auckland, end of July levels are now retreating quite quickly in the central part of the city, and on the North Shore. Christchurch is also recording a similar easing.

MODI VISITING US SOON
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting New Zealand next week, the first here by an Indian Prime Minister in 40 years. (We are his next stop after 2026 visits so far to Malaysia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, The Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Italy, France, and Slovakia.)

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today, with a weekly rise of +0.9%. It is now up +0.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up +7.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.8% so far today. There are 42 gainers today, led by The Warehouse's +2.8%, then a2 Milk, EBOS, Summerset, and Vector. There are 31 decliners led by Vulcan Steel's big -5.3% retreat, then Synlait Milk, Kathmandu, and SkyCity casino.

CORPORATE BOND SPREADS SETTLE BACK
It may be crude, but we have started tracking the bond spread between the listed corporate bonds we cover here and the equivalent NZGB yield levels. We have only been doing this since the start of March 2026. For what it is worth, these spreads rose from March to peak in early June. Since then they have fallen back by -10 bps to the same levels that applied in early March.

FEELING OPTIMISTIC
The unofficial China services PMI came in quite positive for June, similar to May. Growth rates for activity and new business remain strong. They recorded the strongest rise in employment since July 2024 and the fastest input cost inflation in over two years. Service sector firms there are optimistic about the immediate future. The overall result was better than the official China services PMI.

NOT SO MUCH IN JAPAN
In Japan, their services PMI returned to growth in June, but cost pressures intensified, but here business confidence remained subdued. Which is in contrast to their quite positive factory PMI.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.73% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.81% from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +6 bps at 2.78% today and its highest since 1996. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.48%, unchanged from yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +4 bps at 4.45%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.46%.

EQUITIES UP EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE US
The local equity market is a little firmer from yesterday, now up +0.2%. But the ASX200 is up much more, up +1.3% so far. Tokyo has opened up +0.7%. Hong Kong has risen +1.2% and Shanghai is up +0.8% at its open today. Singapore is up only +0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday and final session for the week with the S&P500 little-changed while the Nasdaq was down -0.8%.

OIL PRICES TURN UP
American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$69/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$72/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There has again been very little trading and the price has remained at $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP STRONGLY
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$127/oz from yesterday, now at US$4184/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just on US$62.50/oz.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD from yesterday at this time, now just on 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.9 and up +20 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN UP AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$61,311 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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