Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has raised some fixed rates today. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank also increased some term deposit rates today. Heartland Bank raised all its savings rates today (including its Notice Savers), by between +10 bps and +20 bps. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DOWNBEAT OBSERVER
QV says 'an already subdued' housing market is 'losing what little momentum it had'. They report the average NZ residential property values are down -1.5% over the three months to the end of July.
THE PACE ISN"T SLACKING
Regular readers will know that we track commercial space for lease listings on the realestate.co.nz website. The upward track is still in place, and rising faster in both Auckland, Wellington and, surprisingly, in Christchurch now. In the past year, these listings are up +1706 in Auckland but of those, up at a +354 pace in the past month. In Wellington, they are up +1257 in the past year, up +257 in the past month. In Christchurch they are up +331 for the year of which +153 were in the past month. Worth keeping an eye on.
NZX50 WAVERS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up less than +0.1% today, after a positive start that is fading, but up +0.5% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.9% so far today. Serko, EBOS, F&P Healthcare, and Stride Property rose, offset by falls in Gentrack, Tourism Holdings, Oceania and Mercury.
MORE RENEWABLES - FOR DATA CENTERS
Contact Energy's annual net profit jumped to over $400 million following its Manawa Energy acquisition. It also unveiled a Infratil-backed Taranaki data center proposal.
LATE FILING FEE
Mainfreight has been slapped with a AU$594,000 penalty for late filing of their required financial reports in Australia.
"WE ARE CHECKING"
After delivering the $1.6 bln Central Interceptor tunnel project on time and only marginally over its $1.5 bln budget (and without Wellington's oversight), the Commerce Commission is getting ready to assess its big future investment plans and to pass judgement on "price-quality" for Watercare's customers.
TOPPING UP THE KERNEL
Late last week, Kernel Wealth filed its audited financial results to March 2026. They show funds under management up sharply to over $4.8 bln from $2.6 bln in the prior year. Fee income almost doubled from this to $7.55 mln. But losses grew to -$4.05 mln from -$3.75 mln in the prior year. Cash flows were only positive because shareholders tipped in another $5.5 mln in the year but with this, end of year net shareholders funds were only $3.8 mln.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE
You may recall the recent deadly earthquake in the historic city of Kumamoto. But that hasn't stopped Sony and Taiwan's TSMC announcing today a US$6.3 bln new joint investment in an advance image sensor plant there. Nikkei has the details.
DUMPED BECAUSE CAPITAL GAINS VANISHING
In Australia, bank shares are taking a beating today, with Westpac down -4.7%, CBA down -4.4%, ANZ down -2.7% and NAB down -2.6%. The reason is a Westpac Q3 market update that shows their mortgage applications down -11% in the period and are expected to be down -20% in Q4-2025. Almost all of this fall away is because residential investors are pulling back because the expectation of capital gains is vanishing. Westpac says investor "credit growth" will fall from +9.1% this year to about +4.5% in the next two years. They expect little change in demand by owner occupiers.
SWAP RATES HOLD SOFT
Wholesale swap rates may be marginally softer today but there is unlikely to be much in it. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.94% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.98%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding just over at 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond is still at 2.80% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.73% and unchanged. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate up +3 bps at 4.71%.) The UST 10yr yield is holding unchanged at 4.68%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE
The NZX50 is now up less than +0.1%. The ASX200 has opened its week down -0.4%. Tokyo has opened up +2.0%. Hong Kong has opened up +0.7% and Shanghai is up +0.3% at its open. Singapore is up +1.1% in early Monday trade today. Wall Street should open positively with futures trade indicating a +0.3% rise at its open, and the Nasdaq to open up +0.5%.
OIL PRICES FIRMER
American oil prices have risen +50 USc from this morning's open with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$78.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$84.50/bbl and up +US$1.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been a few trades today but the price for them has dipped -$1 to $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$43/oz from this morning, now at US$4319/oz. Silver is unchanged at US$63.50/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from today's open, now at just over 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 to 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.5 and down -10 bps.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,028 and down -0.3% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.
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6 Comments
PONZI Bites
In Australia, bank shares are taking a beating today, with Westpac down -4.7%, CBA down -4.4%, ANZ down -2.7% and NAB down -2.6%
this has legs, could be a horror week for ASX, came on back of WPAC mortgage applications being down 20%
Westpac’s (WBC ASX) plunge shows banking’s great mortgage shock just started
The key problem is that Westpac’s relatively sunny view of the housing market is completely at odds with the view of banking analysts, who believe we are much closer to the start of the housing downturn than the end.
Morgan Stanley’s Richard Wiles, who famously declared the budget changes had ended the banking sector’s 30-year mortgage super cycle, reckons housing credit will grow by just 3 per cent in 2027, and expects that will exacerbate the damaging headwinds that threaten the industry’s revenue and margins.
Westpac’s June quarter numbers spoke to that risk. JPMorgan’s Andrew Triggs described the trading update as soft. He said the 2 per cent increase in underlying net profit to $1.8 billion probably benefited from some judicious rounding up and is tracking behind JPMorgan’s forecast for underlying profit of $3.7 billion for the six months ending September 30.
Headline dividend yields on major Aussie bank shares can now sit below the banks’ own 12‑month term-deposit rates, something not seen since the post-GFC deposit-funding scramble around 2010.
A fully franked dividend has a higher grossed-up value for Aussie taxpayers who can use the credits; at a 30% company tax rate, a 3.0% fully franked cash yield is roughly 4.3% grossed up. That still may trail a 5%-plus term deposit before considering the deposit’s certainty.
All hands were already on deck on the HMS Westpac. Not long ago, they had lowered the minimum deposit required for some borrowers, and extending the maximum interest-only term available on eligible loans.
https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/westpac-moves-to-woo-i…
Chris Hipkins officially rules out working with New Zealand First in any government he leads - Chris Hipkins officially rules out working with New Zealand First in any government he leads | RNZ
This does not, however, apply to Kieran McAnulty when he becomes leader of Labour.
Of course, the aforementioned Mr McAnulty has said already he has no interest in being leader so it's not going to happen... but if it does, you saw it here first.
Not sure why anyone would rule out anyone. If you really think your party is best to lead the country you'd put up with anyone. Of course in Hipkins case Winston had already ruled him out anyway so it makes no difference
Regular readers will know that we track commercial space for lease listings on the realestate.co.nz website. The upward track is still in place, and rising faster in both Auckland, Wellington and, surprisingly, in Christchurch now.
We keep hearing over and over that the economy is recovering. But we also keep reading the above example over and over. Something doesn't add up.
VISA estimates that U.S. Boomers will only pass along about 1/3 of their current $93T in wealth to their children.
After after massive debasement, what will be the real value of that 1/3?
Doesn't look so bad for the affluent - but that's the top 10%.
These affluent heirs are already wealthy and thus have a lower propensity to spend compared to less affluent households. That means most of the money will be added to their existing wealth through savings, investments or property. This is why the bulk of the $36 trillion great wealth transfer translates into a much smaller $8 trillion lift to consumer spending (see figure below). The $28 trillion likely to be saved or invested creates a major opportunity for banks, wealth managers, fintechs and other financial providers over the next two decades. While an $8 trillion spending lift is modest by comparison, it will still boost overall consumption. And as we will show, how that $8 trillion is already being deployed reveals a generational shift in the way inheritances are spent and which sectors are poised to benefit the most.
https://usa.visa.com/partner-with-us/visa-consulting-analytics/economic…
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