A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; Westpac tweaks rates up, housing market glum, fewer job ads, big insurers report lower profits, professional sentiment improves, swaps softish, NZD lower, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has come back with another rate bite today., but a smaller +6 bps to their six month fixed rate, and +4 bps to their 3 year fixed rate. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

JULY HOUSING MARKET SOFT
The REINZ reported that housing sales slumped in July while prices also edged lower. Overall sales volumes were down -10% nationally, slightly less in Auckland. Some see the reason is that rising interest rates are weighing on the market. Others see both election and broader economic uncertainty.

ONE-IN-EIGHT HOUSES SELL AT A LOSS
Meanwhile, Cotality says the percentage of residential properties selling at a loss has increased to 13% from less than 1% in 2022. This data is contained in their Pain & Gain report.

ANZ GROUP IMPACTED BY NZ CLASS ACTION PROVISION
The ANZ Banking Group says its latest quarterly financial figures were impacted by a provision related to a New Zealand class action court case against ANZ NZ on behalf of customers. The banking group booked a NZ$125 million pre-tax provision following a May 5 High Court hearing that went against the bank. ANZ NZ has appealed the decision. ANZ also says its NZ housing loan exposures more than 90 days past due increased to 82 basis points at June 30 from 80 basis points at March 31. ANZ's third quarter cash profit was AU$1.90 billion, up 2% from its previous third quarter.

FEWER JOB ADS
SEEK’s latest employment marketplace report says job ad numbers declined in July, with only a few ‘pockets of growth’

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FALL BACK
The latest quarterly survey of forecasters, economists and industry leaders about their expectations of the future of the economy is out for Q3. That shows expectations for one-year-ahead annual CPI inflation decreased by 81 basis points from 3.41% to 2.60%. Two-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased by 19 basis points from 2.53% to 2.34%. High oil prices don't appear to have boosted medium-term inflation expectations. These same professionals said expectations for annual real production GDP growth were +2.2% and +2.4% for the one- and two-year ahead time horizons, respectively. Over the same period, they expect house prices to stop falling and perhaps rise slightly.

LOWER PROFIT
IAG is the latest insurer to report its financial results. They declared an insurance profit drop of -23% to AU$467 mln, despite +80,000 new customers and natural disaster-related costs being lower than anticipated. Driving the profit drop was "a softer commercial insurance market" and a weaker NZD. IAG's local brands include State, AMI, NZI. Lantern and Lumley. (Recall, Suncorp reported lower NZ profits yesterday. And Tower also reported lower profit results recently.)

STARTING DATE SET
StatsNZ says they will start publishing the CPI data monthly in April 2027.

NZX50 RECOVERS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.6% today to retrace yesterday's fall, but is still down -1.0% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +4.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. Mainfreight, Sky TV, Air NZ and a2 Milk advanced while Tourism Holdings, Hallensteins, Kathmandu and Vital Healthcare Property retreated.

HIGH DEMAND REMAINS STABLE
There was an unremarkable NZGB bond tender today for two maturities, drawing 69 bids worth $1.72 bln for the $450 mln available. Yields achieved were little-changed from their prior equivalent events.

NINE TIMES OVERSUBSCRIBED
Westpac's $100 mln 5 year bond issue accepted oversubscriptions. They took a total of $1 bln in this issue, and got this funding at 4.66% (swap plus 68 bps).

DO YOU REALLY UNDERSTAND THE RISKS?
In Australia, regulators there are warning that online brokers are targeting retail investors with complex or high-risk products without clearly disclosing their risks or conducting proper onboarding, leaving those who respond exposed to risky products that could see them lose their investments within hours. Among the nine online brokers they reviewed are Sharesies, and Tiger Brokers.

SLOWING PAY GAINS
New semi-annual pay data out today in Australia reveals a softening trend in the private sector. Overall average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults were AU$2,084 in May, up just +1.6% overall in the period, up +3.7% for the year. These are the slowest increase rates since 2022. Rises in public sector pay are running at nearly twice the pace of the private sector. Recall, CPI inflation there was at 3.8% in the year to June - so no real gains.

TOPPING OUT?
Japanese producer prices have been rising fast recently and were up 7.2% in July from a year ago. But there was essentially no rise in July from June, so they are starting to see some heat dissipate.

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates will likely be slightly softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.95% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has dropped -3 bps to 4.97%. The China 10 year bond rate is now just under 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.86% today and up +1 bp and back near its 30 year highs. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.69% and down -3 bps. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate up +1 bp at 4.70%.) But the UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.67%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The NZX50 is now up +0.4%. The ASX200 has opened its Thursday trade down -0.6%. Tokyo has opened up +1.6%. Hong Kong has opened little-changed but Shanghai is up +0.4% at its open. Singapore is down -0.9% in early Thursday trade today. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 recovering +0.3%, and the Nasdaq was up +0.5%.

OIL PRICES RETREAT
American oil prices have fallen back -US$2 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$82/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$88/bbl and down -US$1.50.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been quite a few trades today, some larger, and the price is holding up at $55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed, dipping just -US$5/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4406/oz. Silver is also little-changed at just on US$65.50/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps against the USD from yesterday at this time, now just on 58.4 USc. Political instability isn't helping. Against the Aussie we are down -40 to 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.1 and down -30 bps.

BITCOIN SLIGHTLY SOFTER AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,462 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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