A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; low equity borrowing grows, the Heartland-TSB tie-up closer, mortgage market winners & losers, Selwyn to double its population in 25 years, swaps firm, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank has raised its 3.55% six month rate to 3.60%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FHB LOW EQUITY BORROWING GROWS
Growth of low equity mortgage approvals to first home buyers continues. But the average price paid by first home buyers for a house dropped to its lowest level in almost a year in July.

STEP ONE COMPLETED
Heartland gets Toi Foundation's approval to buy TSB Bank. More consents are required, but when completed Toi Foundation will become Heartland Group's largest shareholder.

WINNERS & LOSERS
We have just completed our analysis of market shares in the home loan market. Changes are glacial over time, but by focusing on bank share of the quarter-on-quarter change in these mortgage books, it is clear that there are winners & losers. Among the current under-performers are ASB, ANZ and Westpac. Kiwibank is holding its own. BNZ and 'all others' are winning market share recently. This helps explain why ANZ has been prepared to drive margins lower to recover their share slide, which (pandemic excepted) has slid from about 40% when this Dashboard data first became available, to just over 26% now. (These are results of new business, not the overall book, which is now at 29.3%.) We will show this analysis in an upcoming article.

MORE CONSULTATION
Auckland Council is proposing changes to the Auckland Unitary Plan - the city's planning rulebook that sets out where new homes and businesses can be built. Plan Change 120 (PC120) responds to Government legislation requiring Auckland to enable more development and provide more housing capacity. It also strengthens planning rules to better protect people and property from flooding and other natural hazards. PC120 would enable taller buildings and more housing choices where it makes the most sense - in well-connected locations with good access to jobs, shops, services and fast, frequent public transport. You can participate in the open consultation here.

NEWCOMERS vs BIG RURAL MONEY
In the Christchurch area, Stats NZ has upgraded its projections for population growth in the Selwyn District Council area. Currently about 85,000 people, it is now expected to rise to 160,000+ in the next 25 years. Selwyn is an odd district, including a fast growing corner of greater Christchurch, all the way out to rural Darfield and Hororata. Urban-rural tensions are sure to boil up and the farming community (dairy & cropping) will lose its influence. Expect to hear calls for the administrative district to be broken up.

WOOL PRICES RISE ON BROADER BUYING SUPPORT
The latest wool auction delivered a strong, fluid market, with demand outstripping the available supply. Significantly, Australian buyers purchased strong wool alongside their traditional fine wool requirements, a new development that broadened demand across the catalogue. See the report here.

GOVT EFFICIENCY = HARVESTING FEES
The Department of Internal Affairs said it will increase citizenship application and product fees from tomorrow (Friday 28 August).That means for an adult, the fee will rise from $560 to $640, up +14.4%.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.8% today, and down -0.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +1.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.9% so far today. Precinct Properties, a2 Milk, Meridian, and Stride are weighing on this market. But Summerset, Investore, Ryman, and Freightways are leading the gainers.

TINY RECOVERY PROFIT RAIDED
The Government extracted a $12.5 mln dividend from NZ Post who posted a $19 mln tax-paid profit in the year to June 2026, after losses in recent years. The Crown has a $730 mln equity investment in the SOE.

GOOD GAINS
Auckland Council-owned Port of Auckland has delivered volume growth for the financial year ending 30 June 2026 with container throughput up +5.5%, car volumes up +17.7%, roll-on roll-off tonnage up +27.2%. This delivered a record underlying net profit after tax of $111.2 mln, up 30% on the prior year. Statutory NPAT was higher at $116.3 mln including one-off gains. They paid a dividend of $55 mln.

STRONG DEMAND, HIGHER YIELDS
Almost $1.8 bln was bid for the $450 mln available in today's NZGB bond tender. Of the 99 bids received, 41 were allocated a share. In all cases, the average yields achieved rose from the prior equivalent instruments.

THE GLOBAL PECKING ORDER
A global review by Rabobank shows that Fonterra has slipped from being the seventh largest global dairy business to 10th this year. This is after Fonterra's divestment process. Some of what they sold went to #1 dairy company Lactalis of France, whose revenues rose to over US$40 bln. Fonterra is now at US$11.3 bln. The EU has five of the top ten dairy companies, China two, and one each for New Zealand, Canada, and the US.

UNEXPECTED RBA HIKE COMES INTO VIEW
After yesterday's above expectations Australian CPI result - and plenty of evidence in that that non-fuel, less volatile items are rising in price faster now - we noticed an uptick in the pricing for a chance of a late-September rate hike by the RBA. True, it isn't an odds-on chance yet, but a notable one-day reaction. Currency markets rose on the prospects too. NAB is tipping a September rate hike now.

UNEXPECTEDLY STRONG GROWTH
In Australia, household spending leapt +7.0% in July from a year ago, the fastest growth in the past ten years (apart from during the pandemic recovery). The +1.1% rise in July from June builds on the June +1.0% monthly rise, and the +1.2% May rise. This is impressive momentum. Financial markets had expected only a +0.4% monthly rise and a +4.4% year-on-year rise. It was a broad-based expansion in every sector other than for "furnishings & household equipment". Likely no one saw a result this positive coming. It will bolster bets the RBA will push through a rate rise sooner.

KOREA MOVES EARLY
The Bank of Korea has raised its policy rate by +25 bps today to 3.00% in a second consecutive move up. They target a 2% inflation rate. Korea has inflation at 2.8% although it did dip in July.

SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.01% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps to 5.08% and back near 2011 levels. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.69%. The Japanese 10 year bond is holding at 2.89%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.76% and up +5 bps.. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -5 bps at 4.68%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.65%, and up +1 bp from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is now down -1.0% from Tuesday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.8%. Tokyo has opened down -0.1%. The KOSPI has recovered another +2.3% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -0.6% while Shanghai is up +0.4% at its open. Singapore is down -0.7% in early Thursday trade today. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 little-changed while the Nasdaq dipped -0.1%.

OIL PRICES FIRM
American oil prices are up +US$1 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$81.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$87/bbl and up +50 USc. The US seems to be planning to revive piracy so that it can claim Hormuz tankers as spoils of war. Very 17th century.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS ON BETTER VOLUME
There ended up being a wider range of good trades yesterday and the price rose to $52.50/NZU in the end. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$27/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4633/oz. Silver is unchanged at just over US$69.50/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just under 63 and little-changed from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$78,715 and down -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».