A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; a new very low floating rate, consumer sentiment holds up, more filled jobs, more renting but rents flat, TVNZ has better results, swaps little-changed, NZX dips, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Note we have added a new mortgage provider today, indi (The independent Mortgage Company) who have their own mortgage book in a partnership with Generate. Their floating rate is a very competitive 4.59% which is actually lower than all 1 year fixed rates. And we also have an analysis of mortgage market share here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HOLDING UP
August consumer confidence held up at July levels. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey is now +18 points higher than its April low. However, the net proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell 5 points to -12, suggesting retail remains a tough gig. Inflation expectations (2-years ahead) were little changed at 4.7%. House price expectations eased from +2.6% to +2.5%.

MORE PUBLIC SECTOR JOBS, ESPECIALLY IN CANTERBURY; OTHERWISE PATCHY
After a flat to negative June, Stats NZ's employment indicators for July reveal a much stronger picture. There were +18.033 jobs added in the month, taking the total of filled jobs to 2.34 mln. +6,581 were in the health sector, +6,418 in other parts of the public sector, +2,630 in education, and +1810 were in construction. But admin jobs reduced by -2078. Basically the only growth is via Government hiring (and quite a different picture to what is claimed). Canterbury is getting the largest share of this jobs boost (+6824) while Auckland got +4,427. Waikato got +3,330 and Otago +1,710. But Northland was on the short end, seeing a fall of -1,526 jobs.

MORE RENTING ACTIVITY BUT NO RENT INCREASES
Rental activity was high in the June quarter but rents themselves remained flat according to our analysis of MBIE's bond data. The number of properties rented in the June quarter were up almost +12% but median rents were essentially unchanged, this data reveals. Separately ANZ says low rental yields are making rental property less attractive to investors.

NZX50 MUTED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.1% today, and down -0.8% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +1.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.1% so far today. There have been 40 gainers today led by Hallensteins, SkyTV, Stride, AirNZ and Napier Port. There have been 47 decliners led by Vista, Genesis, Precinct, Oceania and Infratil.

IMPROVED RESULT
TVNZ said its has reported a $16.3 mln tax-paid profit in the year to June 2026, plus net positive non-cash impairment adjustments of $34.9 mln. During the year it declared dividends of $3.8 mln. (This SOE result and dividend is in sharp contrast what the Government extracted out of NZ Post yesterday.) For reference, Sky Network TV reported a $41.8 tax paid profit in the same period.

CHERRY ON TOP
Auckland Council said it has booked a +$700 mln gain from its Central Rail Link (CRL) project. With practical completion achieved, it received $2.7 bln of assets from the project. As the value of the assets received exceeded the group’s investment contribution to the CRL, this resulted in vested asset revenue of over $700 mln. The CRL opening date is now Sunday, September 13, 2026.

A GROWING CONCERN
In Australia, the extent of ballooning mortgage fraud is being tied to the use of AI to generate false documentation, and the dominance of mortgage brokers in the industry. More than 80% of all loans there are done through brokers now (MFAA). The Hayne Commission inquiry pushed banks to get rid of incentive pay for their own mortgage originators. But those people just shifted to brokers where no such constraints apply. As time developed, the cohort who gamed the system grew and banks were one step removed from overseeing that activity. It is back biting the industry hard. Banks are now realising that they need to bring mortgage origination inhouse if they are to guard against bad actors and what AI can do. And realise, mortgage brokers don't work for the client, no matter what boxes they tick. They are paid by the bank. And that makes banks exposed to fraud in a way that they can't really control. Regulators have been unable to control the mortgage broking industry. It is now up to banks themselves to do so, if only for self-preservation reasons. Banks will need to apply extra scrutiny to broker origination. And that will frustrate borrowers (and the brokers will blame the banks to deflect). The only logical resolution is to bring this relationship back to a direct one.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 3.03% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp to 5.09% and back near 2011 levels. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.92% and a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.76% and unchanged.. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +5 bps at 4.73%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.68%, and up +3 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY UP
The NZX50 is now down -0.2% from Thursday's close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.4%. Tokyo has opened up +0.8%. The KOSPI has fallen -1.0% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened up +0.4% while Shanghai is up +0.1% at its open. Singapore is up +0.2% in early Friday trade today. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.7% while the Nasdaq rose +1.6% on the strong Nvidia result.

OIL PRICES UP
American oil prices are up +US$1.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$83/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$88/bbl and up +US$1.

CARBON PRICE RETREATS
These have fallen back -$1.50 today with the price now at $51/NZU on modest trading. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$48/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4585/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$69/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 63.1 and up +10 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$79,861 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just on +/- 1.6%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».