A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes but benchmark rates move up, TDs more popular, housing market soggy & good for buyers, swaps up, NZD down, NZD dips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). Don't skip the bonds section below where there are significant shifts up today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today either. But we do have some new analysis on the term deposit sector here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SOGGY END
The housing market ended winter on a soggy note and is heading into spring with high stock levels and declining asking prices, according to realestate.co.nz.

'GOOD TIME TO BUY'
And the latest ASB Housing Confidence survey report shows fewer people expect house prices will rise, with a net 9% expecting future price growth – down from 30% in summer. Nationwide, a net 20% think it's a good time to buy a house, with buyer sentiment strongest in Auckland.

EXTINCTION IMMINENT?
Updated RBNZ data shows there have been no coins minted now for two full years, no serious volumes minted for five years. That is likely the end, given there are still in excess of $600 mln (value) still "in circulation".

STABLE
We missed noting this yesterday, but S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the New Zealand sovereign rating at AA+, Stable.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% today, and down -1.4% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +1.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.1% so far today. a2 Milk, Auckland Airport, Mainfreight and Chorus declined today while SkyTV, Tourism Holdings, Scales, and Channel Infrastructure lead the gainers

BETTER THAN EXPECTED
As we suspected, the private China factory PMI by S&PGlobal (Rating Dog) came in much more positively that the official version, and expanded at a rate that beat estimates, even if it is modest. How sustainable that improvement is will be interesting to see because input price inflation rose but output prices fell for first time in 2026 so far.

A RECENT PULLBACK
Australian building consents were expected to fall in July and they did, and by about the expected amount, down -3.6% from June to remain up +9.0% from a year ago. House consents fell -4.2% but multi-unit consents held little-changed (-0.4%). Still, that leaves the multi-unit sector up almost +20% from a year ago. (Some of those are likely to have been Bathla developments in Western Sydney, so are unlikely to proceed now.)

HOUSE PRICES RETREAT
And staying in Australia, Cotality reported that house prices fell -0.9% in August from July, following a -1.2% decline in July. Overall, house prices are now -3.6% below their peak, although still +2.7% higher than a year earlier. The housing downturn has now spread across more capital cities and regional centers, and further policy tightening by the RBA points to tougher conditions ahead. Sydney and Melbourne again led the declines, falling -4.6% and -4.7%, respectively from this time last year, the only capital cities to now be lower on an annual basis

SWAP RATE RISE
Wholesale swap rates will likely be noticeably higher today on global influences. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.06% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps to 5.16% and now back to 2011 levels. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.69%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +6 bps at 2.99% and a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.83% and up +7 bps and back at May levels. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate unchanged at 4.74%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.78%, and up +7 bps from this time yesterday, and now at the brief 2023.level, and prior to that at 2007 levels. Bessent's manipulation strategy isn't looking so good at present.

EQUITIES LOWER
The NZX50 is now down -0.8% from yesterday's close and giving up all of the prior gain. The ASX200 has opened down -0.3%. Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. The KOSPI has fallen -0.6% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -.1.0% while Shanghai is down -0.2% at its open. Singapore is down -0.8% in early Tuesday trade today. Wall Street ended lower with the S&P500 down -0.3% and the Nasdaq down -0.1%.

OIL PRICES UP AGAIN
American oil prices are up another +US$2 from this time yesterday on the Persian Gulf flare-up with the WTI benchmark is now just under US$87/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$91/bbl and up +US$1. An exiting tanker was hit by three 'projectiles' today although no crew were harmed. It was close to the Omani coast but the fire may have come from anywhere.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There have been no trades reported so far today so the price is still at $51.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$11/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4440/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at US$66.50/oz.

NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, now just on 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we also down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.6 and downa bit more than -10 bps from yesterday at this time

BITCOIN FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$78,427 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/- 1.1%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».