A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes yet following the OCR hike, Auckland a buyers market, building consents high, Fonterra confirms good result coming, swaps dip, NZX firms, NZD drops, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today so far, even after the OCR decision. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today either. But we do have some analysis on the term deposit sector here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIKED, AS EXPECTED
The RBNZ delivered the widely expected +25 bps OCR rate hike to 2.75% in a consensus decision. They are ignoring the distorting costs of fuels in their assessment of inflation and expected that narrower CPI measure to be back at 2% in 2027 sometime. They see economic recovery, but note it may not involve a jobs recovery as firms pursue efficiency and wider use if AI in future. Real average hourly earnings growth has turned negative. By the time this hiking cycle is completed, the OCR will likely be at 3.5%. But a pre-election rate hike in late October looks like is off the table for now. December is almost a certainty however.

'SOLID BUYERS MARKET'
Potential buyers are waiting for 'confirmation the return of rising prices is about to get underway', Auckland's dominant realtor claims as it reports August sales down with prices largely flat.

FIRM OUTLOOK, DESPITE MONTHLY VOLATILITY
There were 40,908 new residential building permits in the year ended July 2026, up +21% from a year ago, and both building permits for new houses, and for multi-unit residential, were up at the same pace.

STILL FALLING BACK
Building consents for commercial structures are sill easing back. There is some resilience for industrial / storage space but the amount of new office space in development has been easing back and retail space in development remains low. Sluggish economic conditions and outlook has developers cautious about committing to major capital expenditure in the near term.

DAIRY PRICES HOLD UP
There was a full dairy auction overnight and the overall results were modestly positive. Prices in USD were up +0.9% and up +0.6% in NZD. The big mover down was cheddar cheese suffering a -6.6% fall. The big mover up was SMP with a +5.3% gain. WMP was very little-changed. In fact, SMP prices are now higher that WMP prices, the first time like this since July 2022. In between, the WMP premium over SMP actually got as high as +US$1550/tonne.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is marginally higher today, up +0.2% after getting a boost when the OCR decision was released. It is down -1.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +1.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged so far today. The gainers are led by Chorus, Kiwi Property, Briscoes, and Vital Healthcare. The main decliners are Gentrack, SkyCity casino, The Warehouse, and SkyTV.

PULLING THE PLUG
Taranaki-based Methanex says it will close its operations there. It says they are 'not sustainable' due to ‘continued decline in domestic natural gas availability and the lack of a clear pathway to meaningful new supply’.

TOO RISKY
In Australia, it is coming to light that their central bank has downgraded the US dollar for its foreign currency holdings. In their 2024 Annual Report, Table 2.2.4 noted an 55% target allocation for US dollar holdings (page 82). The 2025 report (page 95) shows this as 45%. An unstable White House is undoubtedly the reason. That 2025 report was released on October 8, 2025, so the 2026 report is now only weeks away and this disclosure will be closely watched. (The RBA is somewhat unusual in that they have revealed that pullback. It is likely happening in many other central banks too, as IMF consolidated data suggests.)

GROWTH SLOWING BUT LESS OF AN EASING THAN EXPECTED
And staying in Australia, they released their Q2-2026 economic activity data today, showing a +0.4% expansion for the quarter, to be up +2.1% (real) from a year ago. That was much better than the expected +1.8% expansion. Their per capital growth was only up +0.7% however. The widely expected slowing in 2026 has been much less than observers had expected.

SWAPS GO IN THEIR OWN DIRECTION
Wholesale swap rates will likely be noticeably lower today on local signals. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.07% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps to 5.19% and now at 2011 levels. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.69%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 3.01% and a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.81% and down -2 bps. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate up +6 bps at 4.80%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.81%, and up +3 bps from this time yesterday, and now at the brief 2023.level, and prior to that at 2007 levels. Rising bond yields raises the cost of capital but is a necessary cost to weigh against inflation - and the very lax fiscal discipline many large economies have adopted.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is now up +0.2% from yesterday's close and a small boost after the OCR decision and by far the best of all the markets we follow. The ASX200 has opened down a sharp -1.2%. Tokyo has opened down an even sharper -2.6%. The KOSPI has fallen -3.1% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -.1.2% while Shanghai is down -1.1% at its open. Singapore is unchanged in early Wednesday trade today. Wall Street ended lower with the S&P500 down -0.7% and the Nasdaq was down -1.0%.

OIL PRICES JUMP
American oil prices are up another +US$4 from this time yesterday on the Persian Gulf flare-up with the WTI benchmark is now just under US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$95.50/bbl and up +US$4.50. More ships have been hit in the Persian Gulf as miliary activity spreads.

CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been no trades reported so far today either so the price is still at $51.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down a sharp -US$141/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4299/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 at just under US$64/oz.

NZD FALLS
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from yesterday, now just on 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we also down -30 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.1 and down about -50 bps from yesterday at this time

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,367 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/- 1.7%.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».