Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to note today, so far. But with wholesale swap rates rising still, expect more next week. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised its 1 year TD rate by +10 bps to 4.00%. Finance Direct has trimmed all their rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FHBs PROP UP MARKET
RBNZ data shows first home buyer activity steady, with the help of a substantial increase in low equity mortgages. Low equity mortgages are helping to prop up first home buyer activity, the data suggests.
HOW AFFORDABILITY AFFECTS HOME-BUYER BEHAVIOUR
Cotality has released a new five-country review of house-buyer behaviour. It finds New Zealand buyers are the most willing of any market surveyed to take out a smaller mortgage to improve affordability. They are also among the most willing to cut lifestyle spending, with 78% having already done so or planning to, compared with 69% globally.
RENTS TURNING UP?
TradeMe Property surveys its rental listings, tracking asking rents. They say these national median weekly rents rose to $625 in August, up $5 a week on the same month last year. That is the first year-on-year increase since January 2025, ending 18 consecutive months of stagnant or falling asking rents. Although minor they claim it is driven by "a tightening supply pool and rising renter interest". Asking rents on an internet portal is one thing. Actual rents (like we track from the MBIE bond data) will show if that is a real trend. Our next rent assessment from the MBIE data will be released for August about October 17.
WOOL'S RISE OVER?
PGG Wrightson's latest wool sale update shows a decline setting in after the sharp June/July price jumps. A larger-than-expected for-sale volume recently is butting up against more cautious buyers, especially for coarse wools. Things were much better for mid-micron and Merino wool.
UNCERTAINTY ON MEAT PRICES
Lamb prices remain firm, although there is increasing uncertainty around how well current levels will hold once new-season production increases, according to meat processor Prime Range Meats. The lower NZ dollar is helping to support returns and maintain current pricing levels. Demand for mutton remains firm, with Chinese buyers looking to secure product ahead of CNY, which should provide support to pricing in the short term. Beef prices continue to soften in the US, with increased import availability and the temporary expansion of the US quota for lean beef trimmings adding further pressure to the market.
WEALTH TAXES POPULAR - IPSOS POLL
Unemployment as an issue has pushed into being a top four concern facing households and electors according to the latest Ispos political poll. And interestingly, 64% of those surveyed support introducing a wealth tax on assets over $10 mln.
STILL EXPANDING
The latest weekly update of the RBNZ's GDP Nowcast incorporating the latest real-time data shows the Q2-2026 rate up to +0.2% growth, but the Q3-2026 rate unchanged at +0.6% (from the prior quarter).
NZX50 EASES SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% so far. But for the past 5 trading sessions it is unchanged. It is up +8.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed so far today. Vulcan Steel, Auckland Airport, AirNZ and Sanford gain while Precinct Properties, Infratil, The NZX and Oceania fall.
FROM PE TO PE & K/S
Fisher Funds and Direct Capital are buying New Zealand Health Group from its two major shareholders, the Catley Family and Quadrant Private Equity.
MATOS SHARPENS HIS AXE
ANZ Group is intent on shrinking its workforce, especially in IT. This will likely affect their New Zealand workforce as more than 400 roles will be affected by the restructure, with more than 100 workers expected to be made redundant. It wants to consolidate software testing under a single strategic partner. Undoubtedly the RBNZ will need reassurance that the changes won't affect the ability of its New Zealand operations to stand alone from the parent in the event of a crisis.
MID-AUTUMN FESTIVAL
We should also note that it is a public holiday in China today, so their financial markets are closed (although Hong Kong is open). It is Mooncake season.
SWAPS RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates will likely be higher again today, maybe as much as +4 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +2 bps at 3.21% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps to 5.40% and its highest since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 1.67%. They are on holiday today. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.10% and up +4 bps to a new 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.13% and up +4 bps from Thursday and its highest since November 2023. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +14 bps at 5.07% on Thursday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.19% and up another +7 bps from yesterday, its highest in 24 years.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% from yesterday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.5%. Tokyo is up +1.2%. The KOSPI is closed today. Hong Kong has opened down -1.8% while Shanghai is closed, on holiday. Singapore is down -0.2% in early Friday trade today. Wall Street ended little-changed on the S&P500, ditto on the Nasdaq.
OIL PRICES UP
American oil prices have risen +US$2 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$93/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$105.50/bbl and up +US$3.50/bbl. But these prices are actually lower than earlier today on news a phased reopening of Hormuz is being discussed.
CARBON PRICE STILL ON HOLD
There have been very few trades reported again today, so far. The price is still at $52.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$3/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4283/oz. Silver is also little changed at just under US$64/oz.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 80.6 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is remains just over 60.4 and down -20 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$84,209 and down a mere -0.2% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.
HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.
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