A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; more mortgage rate changes, business sentiment not rattled, households seek TD interest earnings, oil prices fall, swaps fall, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has trimmed two key rates to match some of its more competitive rivals. Details here. TSB also changed rates, some up one down. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB raised many TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MILK POWDER PRICES RISE
The overnight Pulse dairy auction delivered mixed results although both the SMP and WMP prices rose from the prior event, up by about +1.6% in USD terms. But as the NZD took a bit of a thrashing overnight, these prices were up more than +3% in local currency terms.

MORE CAUTIOUS AFTER OIL PRICES JUMPED AGAIN
The September ANZ business confidence survey shows it little-changed but still at a high level. Overall business confidence eased 2 points although it remains positive. Expected own activity was steady at its equally positive level. Reported past activity fell however and is only at a modest level. Inflation indicators were little changed. Inflation expectations were steady at 3.25%, cost expectations were up with more than 4 in 5 expecting higher costs Pricing intentions eased with now less than half expecting to raise prices. Responses received later in the month after oil prices rose sharply again had lower activity indicators, while cost and price measures were similar or lower. More here.

EMBRACING THE OPTION
More than one million train rides have been recorded on Auckland’s rail network in the first two weeks since the City Rail Link (CRL) opened, with early data showing Aucklanders are embracing new routes and changing the way they travel across the city. The second week recorded more than 506,000 train boardings. In the two weeks prior it its opening, 645,000 train trips were recorded, so the upgrade has brought a +60% uplift. For reference, the Auckland bus network records about 3 mln trips in te same two-week timeframe. There is no data yet on shifts of patronage from the bus to the train, nor shifts from cars to the train.

SHIFTING FUNDS TO INTEREST-EARNING
Household bank balances 'normally' reduce in August from July, but this year the reduction was an outsized -$1.4 bln and about twice what it has been over the prior two August months. But household TD balances rose +$900 mln from July, with the rundown coming mainly in savings account balances (-$1 bln) and transaction account balances (-$1.3 bln).

MORTGAGE GROWTH UNREMARKABLE
The RBNZ's August loan book data delivered little surprise with the same level of year-on-year expansion we have seen over the past 15 months. However it is probably worth noting that the total mortgage book for all banks will likely exceed $400 bln when the September data is revealed next month. It rose to $398.2 bln in August, a +$1.4 bln rise from July.

OUR NET IIP LIABILITY SHRINKS NOTABLY
In March 2026 data released today, Stats NZ said New Zealand had $482.7 bln investment abroad up +14.6%: And of that about $307 bln is in portfolio investments (KiwiSaver and the like) and most of that was in the US and Australia. Our total investment in the US was up +12.6% from a year earlier, up +18.5% into Australia. But direct investment is relatively minor, only about $33 bln. In contrast, foreign investment into New Zealand was $674.4 bln, up +6.1% from a year earlier, with Australia raising their by +7.4% from a year earlier, the US raising theirs by +18.1%, but the British selling down by -3.8%. Most inbound investment is also portfolio investment (55.5%_, but direct investment is a more substantial $172 bln. The net of all this is a investment liability of -$191.7 bln which is a -10.7% lower liability than the year-ago level and the biggest fall since 2011. (IIP is the "International Investment Position".)

NZX50 FLAT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far but down -0.8% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +6.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is also up +0.2% so far today. SkyCity casino, AirNZ, Precinct and Vista Group rise while the NZX, a2 Milk, Investore Property and Gentrack fall.

AUDITED IMPROVEMENT
We have previously noted Pamu/Landcorp's better operational and financial results. Today they released their formal Annual Report which you can find here. After years of losses or small surpluses, they have now recorded two consecutive years of NPATx above $100 mln; $160 mln in the latest year after $120 mln in the prior year.

UP SHARPLY AS EXPECTED
Australian inflation rose from 3.5% in July to 4.0% in August in a rise at was basically expected (4.1%) by economists, the financial markets - and presumably the RBA. Their core (trimmed mean) inflation rates was unchanged at 3.6%. Fuel costs were obviously the big mover (+5.6%), but housing costs were up 5.7%, education up 4.7% and education costs up 3.9%. So the rising cost pressures are broadening out. Food was up 3.0%.

A BIG MISS FOR A FACTORY POWERHOUSE
In something of a surprise, Korean industrial production came in sharply lower in August than anyone expected. It was expected to rise +4% as it did in July, but it actually fell -2.2%, so a notable miss.

THINGS PICK UP IN CHINA
China said both its official factory and services PMI's shifted into a small expansion in September from a modest contraction in both in August. This was a better result than was expected. In addition, the S&P Global factory PMI for China was released. It recorded a modest expansion in August, and that improved in September. The unofficial version for their services sector remained very modest however - but at least it improved as well.

SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates will likely be much lower today on the Aussie CPI that didn't surprise and the Bullock commentary yesterday that was on the dovish side. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was unchanged at 3.24% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps at 5.33% and away from the cliff-edge. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 1.67%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.09% and up +1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.06% and down -9 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -1 bp at 5.12% on Tuesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.23% and down a minor -1 bp from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED & UNCERTAIN
The NZX50 is now up +0.3% from Tuesday's close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.8%. Tokyo is down -0.9%. The KOSPI is up +0.5 at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -0.4% while Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore is down -0.1% in early Wednesday trade today. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade down -0.2% with the Nasdaq down -0.1%.

OIL PRICES FALL
American oil prices have fallen -US$4 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$89.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$96.50/bbl and jerking down -US$10. The re-opening of the Saudi oil pipeline, plus the big release of US strategic reserves are behind these shifts

CARBON PRICE MARKET QUIET
There have been few significant late trades again today so far. The price is little-changed at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold  has firmed +US$44/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4174. Silver is up +50 USc at just on US$61/oz.

NZD EASES 
The Kiwi dollar is now just over 56.4 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 81 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is remains just under 60.2 and down -10 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$83,414 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/- 1.0% again.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».