A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes, spending 'resilient', dairy prices rise, housing demographics not positive, climate shifts into uncharted territory, swaps NZX and NZD all stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RESILIENT SPENDING
Another bank has released details of what it sees in card spending by consumers. Westpac says per-person spending on their cards was up +1.4% in September and is up +7.7% compared to this time last year. Part of the reason for the lift is the large increase in fuel prices. Fuel spending is up +28% compared to this time last year. However, even excluding spending on fuel, spending levels have continued to climb. Spending on utilities (like electricity) is up +5% over the past year; spending on insurance is up +7%. But there’ ha also been a sizeable lift in discretionary spending categories, like furnishings (up +15%) and dining out (+16%).

SMALL NET RISE
The overnight dairy auction was a full one and prices rose +1.2% in USD terms, up +3.6% in NZD terms from the prior full event three weeks ago. SMP starred again, up +4.3% (on a quarter of all volumes) while WMP was up +1.2% (on half the volumes). But the milk fats were all lower with butter dipping slightly (-0.3%), AMF down -1.1%, cheddar down +3.7% and mozzarella down -3.9%. However the overall result is likely enough to confirm Fonterra's recent raising of its payout forecasts.

HOUSES & DEMOGRAPHICS DON'T FAVOUR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET
StatsNZ released two updates today, one for the working aged population, the other for dwellings, both as at September. The working aged population is now at 4.35 mln, up +44,400 or 1% from a year ago. The number of dwellings were at 2,133,800, up +31,000 or +1.5%. When the house supply increase is running faster than the adult working population, it will be hard for the supply/demand influences in the real estate market to turn in the sellers favour. We have had housing supply rising faster than the working adult population since mid 2024 and the 'negative' discrepancy has been rather large. It hasn't trended better at any time in 2025 or 2026.

NZX50 EASES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.1% so far and down -1.1% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +4.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now only up +1.1% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far today. Serko, Tower, Briscoes and Channel Infrastructure advance while Tourism Holdings, Oceania, Argosy and Hallensteins retreat.

TRENDS MOVING OUT OF FAMILIAR TERRITORY
The climate is changing, with observed shifts in temperature, rainfall patterns, extreme weather, and other climate-related indicators. A new update maps these changes and points to what is likely to happen over the next 60 years. Conditions will alter and will require responding adaptions within communities, businesses, infrastructure and ecosystems. The new Report indicates what will need to adapt. What we currently have in many cases will almost certainly not be suitable for what we will need at the end of this century

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was firmer by +1 bp at 3.23% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at its higher level at 5.41%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.68% and unchanged. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.08% and down -4 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.13% and up +1 bp from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was up +7 bps at 5.11% on Tuesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.30% and down -2 bps from yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 has dipped -0.1% from Tuesday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.1% as well. Tokyo is down -0.5%. The KOSPI is down -0.9% today. Hong Kong is down -0.7% in Wednesday trade while Shanghai is still closed for their public holidays. Singapore is down -0.9% in early Wednesday trade today. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.6% and the Nasdaq was up +0.5%.

OIL PRICES FIRM
American oil prices have firmed +US$1 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$90.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$101.50/bbl, all on unresolved supply uncertainties.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS AGAIN
After Monday's flurry of trades, there are very few again today. The price remains little-changed at $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold has firmed a slight +US$12/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4152/oz. Silver is little-changed at just on US$61/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is still just under 56.1 USc and little-changed from where we were this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 80.5 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at just under 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is is now just over 59.9 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN EASES SLIGHTLY, AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$85,263 and down -0.7% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.8% again.

HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».