A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; fewer properties rented, wool prices rise, livestock prices steady, primary export growth close to target, housing asset stalls, swaps dip, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Wairarapa Building Society has raised its floating rate to 6.49% and its three year fixed rate to 5.75% today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here. But this review of current TD rates might be helpful. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NOMINALLY FLAT, REAL DECLINE
Fewer residential properties were rented in August and rents remain flat. Rents have been largely stable for almost three years now.

COMMERCIAL CREDIT CARD INTERCHANGE REGULATION CLOSE
The Commerce Commission says it will publish its final decision and reasons paper on commercial credit card interchange fee regulation for the Mastercard and Visa networks later this month. "As a result of submissions, the Commerce Commission has made the decision to regulate commercial credit card interchange fees," the Commission says. "We have heard the feedback and wanted to provide assurance that there will be a six-month implementation period from the date of publication before the new requirements take effect." 

WOOL FIRM
PGG Wrightson Wool says the auction market "continues to reflect a delicate balance between matching demand and the limited volumes coming forward for sale". Prices were generally in buyers favour across most wool types and styles. This was helped by a strong presence of Australian wool exporters who were active across all wool types in the latest auctions, supporting competition. Overall prices rose after falls that started in mid September. The lower NZD helps.

LIVESTOCK PRICES
The lower NZD also aides livestock pricing. Prime Range Meats reports that mutton demand remains solid, with Chinese buyers actively securing product ahead of 2027 Chinese New Year. This is expected to provide some near-term support to prices. US beef prices continue to ease, with increased import availability and the temporary expansion of the US quota for lean beef trimmings adding further pressure to the market.

UPDATE ON THE DOUBLING GOAL
The latest MPI SOPI update reveals that primary exports are expected to have hit $64.3 bln in the year to June 2026 and now expected to rise to $70.1 bln in 2029/30 with the +9% growth over the remainder of the outlook period set to be led by the dairy and horticulture sectors. That seems unusually low given this is still four years away. In 2014 the then-government set a goal to double primary exports from $32 bln in ten years. It has taken twelve years to achieve that. In 2024 the current government renewed that doubling target, starting at $55 bln. Two years in (20% of the time), they have achieved +17% of that goal.

NOT A GROWING ASSET
In updated RBNZ figures (M10), they say (based on Cotality data) the value of all residences fell by almost -$8 bln in the June quarter from the March quarter, to $1.66 tln, and are up only +0.8% from a year ago. Prices fell faster than the value of new builds.

NZX50 STALLS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far and up just +0.1% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +3.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now only up +0.9% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. Kathmandu, Argosy Property, Ryman and a2 Milk gained while Oceania, Spark, Summerset and Infratil declined.

FIRMUS IPO PULLED
Signs that bubble-risk is catching up with the AI sector are clearer after data center company Firmus withdrew its application to list on the ASX, scrapping what was set to be one of Australia's biggest share market floats. Greedy valuation targets had potential investors in the IPO walking away, and recriminations for the debacle are just beginning. ASIC is questioning some related parties and 3.2% shareholder Maas Group Holdings has put a trading halt on its own shares "pending an announcement". Early investors also include rich lister James Packer, ex-politician Joe Hockey, and Alex Waislit, an ex- of the Pratt family (Visy etc). These will be some very grumpy heavy hitters.

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates will likely be lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was down -1 bp at 3.22% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 5.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.68% and down -1 bp. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 3.04% and down -4 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.08% and down -5 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was unchanged at 5.11% on Thursday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.22% and down -8 bps from yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has firmed +0.1% from Thursday's close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.4%. Tokyo is down -0.9%. The KOSPI is on holiday today (Alphabet Day). Hong Kong is up +1.2% in Friday trade while Shanghai down -0.4%. Singapore is down down -0.5% in early Friday trade. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -0.5% and the Nasdaq was down -1.3%.

OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$103.50/bbl and up the same, again on unresolved supply uncertainties.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have few trades today but the price has slipped -50c to $51.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold has risen +US$36/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4175/oz. Silver is -50 USc softer, now at just on US$60/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is still just under 56.2 USc and up +10 bps from where we were this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 80.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at just over 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is is now just under 59.9 and little-changed.

BITCOIN DIPS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,920 and down -1.7% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest also at just over +/- 1.7%.

GO THE ABs!

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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