A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; inflation dips momentarily, housing off the boil, insurance stress reactions, NZGB bonds in demand, NZSA becomes IANZ, swaps stable, NZX dips, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.  All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

INFLATION EASED BUT IT IS STRONGER THAN IT LOOKS
Annual inflation hits 3.7% in the September quarter with petrol continuing to lead the way, followed by the cost of constructing new housing, electricity, international airfares and local authority rates. Tradeable inflation is now at 4.3%, non-tradeable at 3.3%. Core inflation is pushing higher. Recall overall Q2 inflation was 4.1%. And most observers see Q4 inflation at a 4.5%.rate. These forward-looking views are likely shared by the RBNZ and market pricing is primed for a +25 bps OCR hike next week. ASB says "We currently expect 25bp hikes in October and December and a 3.25% OCR peak. However, risks to the OCR over 2027 are firmly skewed to the upside, with our OCR forecasts under review."

A FLAT MARKET GOOD FOR FHBs
A becalmed housing market means home loan affordability for first home buyers moved sideways in September. Mortgage rates, house prices and incomes were all as flat as a millpond in September.

PUSHING BACK THE HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY
Meanwhile, ANZ economists say house prices will keep falling for longer than they previously expected. 'House prices to drift mildly lower until the middle of 2027', they say.

COST JUMP PUSHES MORE TO TOLERATE HIGHER EXCESSES
Home insurance premiums are up +28% over last 3 years, according to Quashed. More competition in the insurance market as people continue to explore higher excess options when shopping for car, house and contents insurance.

REASONABLY GOOD SITUATION
"Everything needs water" so it is time to review our water storage levels. Auckland's drinking water storage dams are in good shape, more than 90% full and that is higher than the three year average. And Transpower's review of hydro dam levels has them lower than the average level in the North Island, but higher in the much larger South Island storage lakes.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% today. From a week ago it is down -1.0%. But from six months ago it is up +5.8%. From a year ago it is up +2.4% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2% so far today. Today's gains (35) are led by Gentrack, Scales, Tourism Holdings, and Lodestone. Today's declines (39) are principally from Kathmandu, Hallensteins, Napier Port and Ryman

STRONG DEMAND, LOWER YIELDS
There was strong demand at today's NZ Government bond tender of $450 mln in two maturities. The got 81 bids worth a touch over $1.75 bln. 20 bids succeeded and both bonds delivered lower yields than at the equivalent events 2 and 3 weeks ago.

NAME CHANGE
The NZ Shareholders Association (NZSA) today becomes Investors Association New Zealand, reflecting their representation of a wider range of investment approaches, including KiwiSaver and managed funds. The broader focus will be a welcome change for investors and may bring clashes with a wider set of money managers.

"DELIBERATE LIES"
For most of us, our eyes glaze over when we need to read court judgements. But skip to just after para 19 in this one. Facebook has been found by a jury to have lied about how it acts, the opposite of what it says in its T&Cs and it willfully violated users rights and knowingly committed fraud. This judge has had enough. Interest accrues at 15% pa. Of course Meta will appeal. That is what grifters do.

TOUGH SPOT
In Australia, their reserve bank is in a tough spot with inflation up +4.0% in August and forecast consensus is rise to 4.1% in September when it is reported next Wednesday, while their housing markets retreats rather fast, and their labour market seems topped out. Markets currently price in a 55% chance of a hike on Tuesday, November 3. Analysts are more certain one will come on the expectations the September CPI will overshoot.

ON HOLD
The Bank of Korea has left its key policy rate unchanged at 3% in its review today, as widely anticipated. This came after two rate back-to-back increases earlier in the year because they have CPI running at 3.4% and a 2% policy target. But they claim the rate will fall back into line under the current settings.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed to slightly softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +1 bp to 3.32% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 5.27%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.63% and little-changed. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.89% and down -1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.03% and down -3 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was also down -3 bps at 5.03% on Wednesday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.10% and down -3 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 has eased -0.4% so far today. And the ASX200 has opened also down -0.4%. Tokyo is down -0.7%. The KOSPI is down -1.1% at its open. Hong Kong is down -1.9% in early Thursday trade while Shanghai down -0.9%. Singapore is down -0.1% in early Thursday trade. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 up +0.6% while the Nasdaq was up +1.1%.

OIL IN MIXED HOLD
American oil prices eased -50 USc from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$110.50/bbl  and up +50 USc.

CARBON PRICE BLIPS BACK UP
There have been more trades reported today and the price is back up +50c, now back at $50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has slipped, down -US$11/oz from yesterday, now at US$4109/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just over  US$56.50/oz.

NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just under 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at just under 81.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.7 and up +20 bps.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$83,236 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just over +/- 1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».