A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no rent inflation, mortgage interest load low & stable, borrowers maintain their buffers, another strike, swaps rise, NZX dips, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union has raised its one year TD rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NO INFLATION FROM RENTS
September's median advertised rent on Trade Me Property was unchanged from September last year.

LIGHT LOAD
Although mortgage interest paid rose marginally in the September quarter from the prior quarter (to $4.8 bln, up +1.2%), it was the first quarter that has seen a rise in what borrowers paid banks since December 2021. In between quarterly mortgage interest paid topped out at $5.8 bln in December 2024. Clearly current interest amounts being paid are still 'accommodative' as the lower fixed rates are still applying to many. But from here, higher fixed rates will start to bite harder.

STILL PAYING DOWN FAST
And interestingly, we are not seeing borrowers trimming their 'excess repayment levels over and above their scheduled repayments. In fact they are still running at near record high levels of just over $18 bln/pa ($4.3 bln in the September quarter). Household budgets are not deprioritising excess mortgage repayments - which would be a sign of financial stress for homeowners.

GROWTH SAG
For the first time since this monthly data has been available in January 2017, we have had three months where new mortgage lending has fallen year-on-year (outside the 2021/2023 pandemic period). Having noted that, new lending is still relatively high at $7.5 bln in September - and only topped by the $8.2 bln level in September 2025. Also, at $624,000 the loan amounts being shifted between banks is not at its lowest average level since November 2023. That compares with new property purchase average loan size of $590,000. 

MORE STRIKES
Some unionised workers at IAG, the company behind the insurance brands AMI, State, NZI, Lumley and Lantern, will strike for a full day today (Tuesday) and picket outside IAG offices in Auckland and Christchurch.

NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% today. From a week ago it is also down -0.2%. But from six months ago it is up +6.8%. From a year ago it is up +1.7% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.1% so far today. Sanford jumps +16% to lead gainers. Serko, Vista and Channel Infrastructure also rise, offset by Ryman, Mainfreight, Vector and Summerset.

CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS BOUNCE BACK
China is reporting that industrial profits rose +14.4% in September from the same month a year ago. That is a very sharp rise from the +4.2% gain in August from a year ago which eased sharply from an +11.2% rise in July.

LOOKING AHEAD
Obviously local news will be dominated by the RBNZ's OCR review on Wednesday. But don't overlook the Pulse dairy auction signals tomorrow morning, and the Aussie CPI result tomorrow which is expected to deliver a rise from August's 4.0% to 4.2% in September. Variations from either may well have financial market implications.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates will likely be higher today, maybe as much as +5 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was down -1 bp at 3.31% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.97%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.63% and also little-changed. The Japanese 10 year bond is holding at 2.80%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.99% and up +2 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -4 bps at 4.94% on Friday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.97% and little-changed from this time yesterday. Everyone is awaiting central bank decisions.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.8% so far today. But the ASX200 has opened up +0.2%. Tokyo is up +0.8% from yesterday. The KOSPI is up +4.1% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.4% in early Tuesday trade while Shanghai down -0.3%. Singapore is down -0.1% in early Tuesday trade. Wall Street ended up +0.7% in its Monday trade while the Nasdaq was up +0.8%

OIL EASES
American oil prices have fallen -US$2 from this morning with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$101/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$114.50/bbl  and down -US$2.50.

CARBON PRICE SINKS
There has been modest trading levels reported today but the largest of them is for a price -$2.50 below Friday at $47.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FLAT
In early Asian trade, gold has held from this morning, now at US$4010/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$53.50/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning at just under 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just on 81.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 60.8 and +20 bps firmer.

BITCOIN UNEXCITING
The bitcoin price is now at US$79,846 and down -0.2% from this morning's open. Volatility has remained low at just over +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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