A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; business sentiment holds, Vero warns on climate risks, NZ Post upbeat on retail, big centers grab population gains, progress on child poverty, swaps hold, NZD stays soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to note so far today yet. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE SUN STILL SHINES. JUST A LITTLE LESS BRIGHTLY
When the sun came up today, the day after the RBNZ's 'shock' no-change decision, this is what markets saw. The NZGB 10 year yield is now 4.91%, down from 4.98% yesterday before the RBNZ decision. The NZD is now 56.3 USc, down from 56.8 USc, and we are now at 79.7 AUc from 80.8 AUc. The NZX50 is up +0.5% over the same period. For consumers, higher import prices and worse travel costs are going to do some of the RBNZ's work on suppressing demand but in this case that isn't really going to restrain inflation in the way an OCR hike would. All that has probably happened is that a chance of an outsized OCR hike to fight inflation is now more likely.

HANGING IN POSITIVELY, ALTHOUGH NOT INSPIRING
October business confidence as monitored in the monthly ANZ survey is lower than in the same month in 2025, and lower than in 2024. But it hasn't much changed from its net positive level that we first had in July. Firms are learning to live with the higher fuel prices. Inflation expectations were steady at 3.3%, and a net 82% of firms are expecting higher costs, very high but unchanged. Meanwhile, pricing intentions lifted 4 points to a net 52% of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months, the highest since May, and the amount by which they expect to raise them was the highest since June. (We will get a reading on October's consumer sentiment changes tomorrow.)

A GROWING RISK - AND COST
Suncorp's Vero Insurance says weather-related claims have surged to $185 mln over the past year, and warns that climate change is projected to push up claims costs by between +12% to +15% by 2040.

RETAIL MOMENTUM?
NZ Post monitors retail transactions and its Q3-2026 report is much more optimistic than you hear from RetailNZ. They (NZ Post) say a retail recovery gained momentum in that quarter, with spending on physical goods increasing +4.6% year-on-year. Online shopping continued to lead the recovery, growing +10.7% compared with Q3 2025. eCommerce generated almost half of the quarter's total retail growth, reinforcing its role as the primary driver of retail recovery heading into Q4 which is the usual peak period. "The stronger performance across both online and instore channels suggests consumer confidence is gradually returning," they say. While inflation, fuel costs and election uncertainty remain factors to watch, retailers enter Q4 with more momentum than they have seen in recent years.

THE BIG GET BIGGER
StatsNZ released data on "sub-national" populations today for June 2026 (ie: at local board level) and that showed the fastest growing district was Selwyn (close to Christchurch) which expanded +2.9% in the year. That was followed by a range of Auckland local board areas. In fact, Auckland has now grown to 1.84 mln people and is expected to hit 2 mln in about 6 years. The same data shows Auckland is our the fastest-growing city (+1.2% pa), followed by Hamilton (+1.0%) and Christchurch (+0.9% pa). In fact Hamilton is on track to be larger than Wellington later in the 1930s.

NZX50 FIRMISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% today after yesterday's small post-OCR boost. From a week ago it is now down -0.3%. From six months ago it is up +7.4%. From a year ago it is up +2.3% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.3% so far today. Freightways, Stride Property, Spark and Auckland Airport gain; Hallensteins, Gentrack, Briscoes and Vista Group decline.

TARGETING & MEASURING IT DOES IMPROVE IT
Almost 10% of all children live in poverty. That is according to new data released by StatsNZ today for the year to June 2025. That is an alarming 102,600 children. As bad as these levels are, the situation was improving. In 2019 when the then-government put a focus on dealing with child poverty, it was 12.6%. That means that 27,300 fewer children are now in poverty than when those initiatives were put in place. By cultural cohorts, the decrease in poverty among European children was -9,700, -12,000 fewer among Māori children, -4,100 fewer among Pacific children. We won't get the 2026 data for another year yet, and sadly it is likely that the situation has reverted somewhat.

ANZ NZ SEEKS A NEW AUDITOR
ANZ NZ is following the lead of its Aussie parent, and moving to replace its long serving auditor KPMG. ANZ NZ says in conjunction with the ANZ Group, it'll launch a competitive tender process to choose a new provider of external audit services, with the new firm beginning work in the 2029 financial year. At the time of the ANZ Group announcement on October 2, ANZ NZ said it hadn't made a decision. (ANZ NZ's September 2025 accounts show "professional fees" at $68 mln, but of course this will cover more than just the audit fee.)

SWAP RATES HOLD LOWER
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed-to-soft today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +2 bps at 3.37% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 5.18%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.62% and unchanged. The Japanese 10 year bond is also little-changed at 2.82%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.91% and down another -3 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -4 bps at 4.93% yesterday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.98% and down -4 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES HOLD FIRMISH
The NZX50 has risen +0.2% so far today. The ASX200 has opened up +0.5%. Tokyo is up +0.1% from yesterday. The KOSPI has reverted -3.0% at its open however after yesterdays huge rise. Hong Kong is up +0.2% in early Thursday trade while Shanghai down -0.7%. Singapore is up +0.7 in early Thursday trade. Wall Street ended up +0.3% in its Wednesday trade while the Nasdaq was also up +0.3%

OIL MIXED
American oil prices have basically held from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$101/bbl and up +50 USc, while the international Brent price is lower by -US$1.50 just under US$114.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE EASES
There has been some trading reported today but the price has eased -$1.50 from yesterday to now $48/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold has risen +US$5 from yesterday, now at US$4053/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just on US$53.50/oz.

NZD HOLDS LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just under 56.3 USc and holding its lower post-OCR drop. Against the Aussie we down -10 bps at just on 79.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 60 and less than +10 bps firmer.

BITCOIN YOYOs
The bitcoin price is now at US$79,889 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at just under +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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