ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey shows muted confidence with house price expectations at lowest level in more than 3 years

Consumer confidence remained muted in October, according to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence Survey, although two-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to their lowest point since March last year.

Based on a monthly phone survey of more than 1,000 random people, the survey measures the results of people’s responses to a set of five questions. The October reading shows consumer confidence fell almost two points to +96.2, from +97.6 in September.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner described October’s consumer confidence reading as “subdued” but pointed to it still being 16 points above the survey’s April low point, when consumer confidence reached its lowest reading in about three years.

She said NZ consumers remain under the pump as fuel prices are still extremely high and broader inflation is running “well ahead” of income growth.

“The weak currency isn’t helping, though export-focused sectors are benefiting. In that context, one could describe the October consumer confidence outturn as fairly resilient to some significant cost-of-living pressures,” she said.

Two-year ahead inflation expectations in the October survey eased from 4.5% in September to 4.2% in October, the lowest level inflation expectations have been since also coming in at 4.2% in March 2025.

These consumer inflation expectations are still higher than those published in ANZ’s latest business outlook survey on Thursday, which had one-year inflation expectations among businesses steady at 3.3%.

House price expectations in ANZ’s October consumer confidence survey edged down from 2.4% to 2.0%, their lowest level since July 2023.

“After a couple of false starts in recent years, consumers seem to have an increasingly negative take on where the [housing] market is headed,” Zollner said.

That’s bad news for some and good news for others, of course, like any price move is.”

Meanwhile, the proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell 10 points to -17%, as cost of living pressures dent spending plans.

Perceptions of current personal financial situations, better or worse off than last year, deteriorated two points from -19% to -21%.

Looking forward, the survey found that a net 24% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, up from 20% in September and well above April’s low of just 3%.

Perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months improved from -16% in September to -13% in October, but were obviously still pessimistic. 

The 5-year-ahead measure fell slightly to +8% in October from +10% in September, but Zollner said it was still in the black.