Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes announced today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ONGOING DECLINES
Housing values continued falling in October as buyers call the shots. Cotality's latest Home Value Index shows ongoing declines in most parts of the country with even the South Island starting to show some weakness.
GROWING URBAN CENTERS
New projections out today by StatsNZ shows that Christchurch City's population of just under 420,000 now is expected to reach 463,000 in 2038, and hit 500,000 in the early 2050s (+19%). Hamilton City's current 190,000 population will grow to 230,000 in 2038 and to almost 280,000 in the early 2025s (+47%). They also released data for Palmerston North which is projected to reach nearly 100,000 in the 2050s (+10%), and for Invercargill which will reach 65,000 then (+18%). Of course in the two largest cities covered here, 'good' growth will also happen in adjacent districts too.
IN A POSITIVE MOOD
Investor confidence is rising. The Q3 ASB survey shows Around half of all Kiwi say KiwiSaver policies will influence their voting decision come 7th November. Investor confidence has risen to 15%, up from just 1% the previous quarter, with Aucklanders’ confidence at a three-year high. .Kiwi under the age of 50 see managed investments and KiwiSaver as providing the best returns, property continues to dominate for over 50s despite the slow housing market
FEWER NEW BORROWERS
New rural lending was up +8.9% from a year ago to just over $1.0 bln. However lending to horticulture bucked the trend by being down -7.0%. Meanwhile business lending for non-property related loans was down -23% in September from a year go. For property related business lending, this was down an eye-watering +54% from the same month a year ago. That makes the drop in new lending for residential property at -11.8% look modest.
MARKET SHARE GAINS
BNZ's annual profit tumbles -23% on hit by changed software depreciation stance. But it makes lending & deposit market share gains. CEO sees 'highly competitive market' but touts signs of optimism from business customers.
NZX50 SURGES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +2.1% today. From a week ago it is now up +2.6%. From six months ago it is up +7.9%. From a year ago it is up +3.3% now. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +3.1% so far today presumably on the expectation US tariff blocks will get easier in future. There are 62 gainers led by Gentrack, Summerset, a2 Milk and Infratil. There are 17 decliners let by Channel Infrastructure, Tourism Holdings, Napier Port, and Vista Group.
STRONG DEMAND
There were 85 bids at today's NZGB bond tender offering $1.84 bln for the $450 mln available. But 56 bids won something.
MORE BANK DEBT FUNDING
Westpac NZ is raising $800 mln via a 3 year floating rate note.
AMERICAN VEHICLE SALES SOFT IN OCTOBER
US light-vehicle sales fell to an annual rate of 15.54 million units in October, down -0.9% from a year ago . That's a fall of -140,000. Affordability remains a major challenge for the industry, with pressures showing no signs of easing. The average monthly payment on a new-vehicle financing contract reached US$823 in October, up +2.6% from a year earlier. Conventional hybrids continue to attract strong demand, as they have over the past year.
GOOD EXPORT GROWTH, BUT NOT FOR AG
Australia delivered a strong export performance in September with them up +2.3% from August and up +10.4% from a year ago. Meanwhile their imports fell -3.3% from August but were up +11.7% from a year ago. That means they recorded a +AU$2.85 bln trade surplus in the month, only marginally smaller than the AU$3.05 bln in the same month in 2025. Driving their exports were strong sales of gold (+18.2%) and minerals (+11.0%). Not driving their gains were exports of "rural goods".
TOP DRAWER
In Australia, savings behemoth AustralianSuper (a workplace scheme deeply connected to the union movement - its trustee is jointly owned by the ACTU and AiG) has won a Aaa credit rating from Moody's, a rating better than either the Victorian or Queensland state governments. It is a mammoth fund exceeding AU$438 bln (larger than New Zealand's GDP) and is the sixteenth largest pension fund globally. It was an early investor in AI datacenters, and has been subject to ASIC investigations on transparency issues. (AustralianSuper is different and separate from the Australian sovereign wealth fund, the Australian Future Fund.)
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