Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand with news last week's Wall Street selloff looks like it will resume this week.
We get a dairy auction again this week on Wednesday morning after another RBA review tomorrow. We also get rate reviews in Canada, India and Brazil this week.
Then the US and China will be releasing inflation and foreign trade data. Other important data to follow include US consumer confidence, UK October GDP data, German investor sentiment and factory orders, Japan current account and producer prices, and Indian industrial output.
Most of this recent data is expected to be reasonably positive. But investors are focused what is coming - and see inflation, and central banks winding up to hike rates sooner than previously assumed and reduce QE imminently. The punchbowl is about to be taken away, or at least down-sized. That means the pressure on asset price inflation is waning. And that means investors are facing revaluation losses even if businesses aren't facing reduced trading profits.
Over the weekend, the rise in US non farm payrolls for November was a sharp disappointment, with the headline number rising just +210,000 when a rise of +550,000 was expected. It is the lowest monthly rise of 2021.
However, average weekly hours worked rose. Their participation rate rose. Average weekly earnings in November were up +5.6% from a year ago, and that is above the 2021 average. None of this data really supports the weak payroll number reported.
The Fed is likely to overlook these headline jobs numbers.
US factory orders were reported +1.0% higher in October than September, and +17% above year ago levels.
And the widely-watched ISM services PMI rose very sharply in November to an all-time high (and after a fall was expected from its already high level). Strong demand, labour shortages, and high prices all feature in this survey. The Markit services PMI for the US shows similar attributes, even if it isn't at a record high.
In Canada, their November payroll data beat expectations, and by some margin. Even if you discount that half of the big gain was for part-time jobs, the full-time jobs rise was double the overall expected increase.
In China, Evergrande said: "In light of the current liquidity status of the Group, there is no guarantee that the Group will have sufficient funds to continue to perform its financial obligations." Local government authorities have descended on the company to see if they can save it. Kaisa is teetering too. Sunshine 100 China Holdings defaulted on a US$179 mln debt and interest payment yesterday, citing liquidity issues. The collateral damage is starting to spread.
And staying in China, the world's largest container port said it is raising prices by +10%. This comes at a time that the rest of the world is pulling back from globalisation, and seems to be largely prepared to pay the inflation price for doing so.
Despite low consumer confidence, the Japanese service sector PMI rose in November to its highest in more than two years. Meanwhile, the private Caixin services PMI for China expanded more slowly with a lame result, and one that was weaker than the official services PMI. But the same services PMI survey in Australia is reporting a rising expansion. (We don't get the November PSI for New Zealand until Monday, December 13, 2021.)
EU retail sales volumes surprised on the upside in October data released over the weekend. It isn't running hot, but it is expanding modestly and the September data was revised up as well.
In Turkey, the president has dismissed his finance minister as the currency collapses and ration queues start to form for subsidised bread.
Global wheat prices are near ten year highs on struggling northern hemisphere production. They are likely to rise from here because Russia is contemplating an export limit this year. Australian production is strong and they have the most to benefit.
The price of tin reached a record US$40,500/tonne on the LME in Friday trading, a sign that technology for climate change adaption is going to be expensive. The price of lithium carbonate is almost at US$32,000/tonne, reinforcing that feeling.
In Indonesia, we should note that a Javan volcano has erupted, causing widespread damage and casualties.
In Australia, pandemic cases in Victoria were 980 reported yesterday. There are now 15,433 active cases in the state - and there were another 7 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 286 new community cases reported yesterday, a jump, with 3043 active locally acquired cases. They had one death yesterday, but there is a growing Omicron outbreak in Sydney. Queensland is reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 6 new cases. Overall in Australia, just over 88% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus a bit under 5% have now had one shot so far.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.36% and unchanged from this time Saturday and a 72 day low. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today a tad flatter yet again at +76 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also flatter at just under +88 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is down at +131 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate has slipped another -2 bps to 1.55%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.92%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is also unchanged at 2.35%.
Last week was a generally tough one for equities and this week might not be much different. The S&P500 futures suggests Wall Street will open tomorrow almost -1% lower.
The price of gold will start today at US$1783/oz and very little changed in a week.
And oil prices are still languishing at just over US$66/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is back down -US$1 and now just under US$69.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today softer yet again at 67.4 USc and a -¾c fall from this Friday. Against the Australian dollar however we are unchanged at 96.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 59.7 euro cents and still its lowest since early October. That means our TWI-5 starts the week at 72.3 at a 100 day low.
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$48,571 and a very sharp -11.7% lower than the level at this time on Saturday. We are now at its lowest since early October and a drop of -28% since it its peak on November 10, and now in a strong bear phase. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.0%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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116 Comments
So mass delusion, which we are stuck in the middle of, has four underlying pre-existing conditions. You can know that someone captured is suffering:
1. Lack of social bonding
2. Lack of meaning in life/work
3. Non specific anxiety
4. Generalised anger
Take away Covid & this vulnerability means a new delusion will capture them. Their anxiety they attempt to overcome by controlling others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRo-ieBEw-8
Most people have always tried to control others Scarfie. It's a natural part of the human condition, needing to feel superior.
But it's also worse than that. Several generations out from the last world war, current generations don't understand and resist calls for self discipline. Parenting standards have declined and from this stems many societal problems. People put their personal 'rights and freedoms' before the rights and freedoms of others, naturally giving rise to conflict. Add in a lack of taught discipline and self control and violence ensues, some times, but increasingly extreme violence.
Add to that the present pressures & tempo in society aggravated by the sheer speed of electronic communications overwhelmed by sheer bumf. For instance regarding self discipline, bullying. The ability of immature & spiteful teenagers to utilise their cell phones for bullying, persecuting another is shocking & they hunt in packs. Damage to those formative years can last a lifetime and of course fatal to some.
You mean like boomers screaming out to jab kids when "most wont even know they have covid?"
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300461792/how-does-co…
The logic continues.... Sports NZ in their wisdom are in process of banning unvaccinated kids from CLUB sport.... they can still play in School sports teams... (yes the virus is that smart Murray)
Who knew sport participation was so bad for kids, but advice from MOH ministry of harm is what it is...
I only hope your kids never catch it.
What will you do if your kids are not one of those "most"? Yes the vaccine has a negative effect on a very small number of children, but COVID has a significant negative impact and even kills, many more, although still a statistically small percentage.
I've watched a child suffer through whooping cough, and know a parent who lost their child to it. Would you vaccinate your child for it or do you think that is a conspiracy too?
Murray - get some perspective - the kids are much, much, much more likely to die driving to the cricket tournament than croaking of covid.
'The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 9 miles per day (Germany) and 415 miles per day (New York City). People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City.
CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.'
The NZ herald ran a story a few weeks back where in the UK they tested the children for antibodies and found that 76% had already had covid, and that there seemed to be little benefit vaxxing them
Young healthy kids immune systems cope well with covid naturally, there is no need to vaccinate them unless they are high risk.
Even the Pfizer trials on children found no statistical benefit.
The Vaccine will kill more kids than it saves
A recent study out of Hong Kong finds the incidence of myocarditis following vaccination in adolescent males at a rate of ~1/2680.
Conclusion: "There is a significant increase in the risk of acute myocarditis/pericarditis following Comirnaty vaccination among Chinese male adolescents, especially after the second dose."
Abstract here: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/cid/c…
Assuming this data is correct, surely we would need to look at whether the risk of severe illness (including myocarditis) from Covid to the same cohort is greater than 1/2680.
It's a no brainer to be vaccinated if you are older/at-risk (especially older than 65 and/or with co-morbidities) but kids/adolescents seems to be dangerous territory unless the primary purpose is not to protect them but actually protect the older/at-risk via reduced transmission.
However, that raises its own moral conundrum - for example is it really acceptable to potentially give an adolescent male myocarditis from vaccination in order to reduce the risks of a 90 year old contracting Covid and becoming seriously ill or dying (especially when the 90 year old will presumably have been vaccinated themselves).
With Covid and vaccination being such emotive topics, I doubt we will ever be able to get the true picture as it relates to the benefits/drawbacks of mass vaccination of children and adolescents.
Whatever the outcome, I'm certainly not comfortable with the idea of excluding kids from sports events or social opportunities because they aren't vaccinated for something that is a very small risk to themselves.
My wife has a number of children in her class at school who cannot attend their own school graduation and end of year social because they are unvaccinated (these kids are 12-13 years old, leaving to high school). At that age their decision-making will be massively influenced by their parents ... is it fair to exclude them on that basis?
Omicron may be worse for youngsters
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-children-hos…
The same bit where i said kids should be vaccinated for COVID. Something you keep coming back to, but I've never said. You read like a conspiracy theorist, twisting my words into something I've never said. I have concerns about the vaccine, but I also think the only choices we have to get ahead of COVID is to vaccinate or stay home. Which one do you choose?
And when spouting statistics, all of you should consider the possibility that you or yours may feature negatively on those stats. How would you feel then? There are plenty around the world who were anti-vax and realised they were just wrong!
That's the problem. Vaccinate or stay at home. What about the choice of natural immunity through infection? I will take natural infection over an experimental gene therapy anytime. That is not anti-vax, I just respect my natural immunity more. I do not need the Medical Industrial complex to control my 'health', through drugs.
Very strange language. 'natural infection', 'natural immunity'? You just mean catching covid with a naive immune system. Most of us will be largely fine doing this, but your odds are far better with some vaccine in your system to prime the immune system. While healthcare does have embarrassing failures from time to time, it largely servers to improve and prolong your life.
How laughable given ventilation is a key parameter for infection - cricket field in summer ffs. A country run by poll driven karens whipped up by the paid for media.
'Here, we present data from Sweden on Covid-19 among children 1 to 16 years of age and their teachers. In Sweden, Covid-19 was prevalent in the community during the spring of 2020.3 Social distancing was encouraged in Sweden, but wearing face masks was not.3
...The number of deaths from any cause among the 1,951,905 children in Sweden (as of December 31, 2019) who were 1 to 16 years of age was 65 during the pre–Covid-19 period of November 2019 through February 2020 and 69 during 4 months of exposure to Covid-19 (March through June 2020) (see the Supplementary Appendix). From March through June 2020, a total of 15 children with Covid-19 (including those with MIS-C) were admitted to an ICU (0.77 per 100,000 children in this age group) (Table 1), 4 of whom were 1 to 6 years of age (0.54 per 100,000) and 11 of whom were 7 to 16 years of age (0.90 per 100,000). Four of the children had an underlying chronic coexisting condition (cancer in 2, chronic kidney disease in 1, and hematologic disease in 1). No child with Covid-19 died."
Yes an absurdly low risk.
This has been known since March 2020. Yet our leaders insist on making kids wear masks in school & are keen on vaccinating them for God knows what reason. One almost wonders if the "irrational fear" the government is creating around covid19 will be more damaging to society long term than covid19 itself?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/10/coronavirus-is-mysteri…
Try reading a few of the articles from people who caught it if you think the fear is irrational.
Yes I know there are also many who have had minimal effect from catching it, but which one of those groups will you or I be in? I just don't want to find out. COVID is more than just a cold or the flu.
Disagree. The statistical outliers guide our behaviour. We drive within speed limits, swim between flags, don't point guns where we shouldn't. But we can also take steps to ensure we don't get impacted by things we can't control. Staying home won't protect us from the outliers, and indeed may make us more susceptible to some.
From medsafe own data, we send 1 person to either the hospital (severe adverse event) or the morgue every 5461 injections. If we assume every injection as an independent event it means for 3 injections, the chance to end up injured or dead is 1 in 1820. For 14 injections (Australia has ordered enough vaccines for 7 years), the odd is 1 in 390. The question becomes "how many boosters can your body survive" .
It is a really good cold. It sucks and I am sure you do not want to find out as nobody wants to get sick anymore. But that's life. The fear should be if you are unhealthy and have a poor immunity, not my fault. Your fear is restricting your life to were you think I am responsible for it. I am only responsible for my own health not yours. The only fear is fear itself.
The economic impacts are huge. It seems there is increasing versions of 'tribalism' that are becoming more evident. NZ, used to be well known for our egalitarianism, but i fear this is fading fast, so the numbers of 'have nots' will be increasing while power and influence is increasingly confined to smaller groups. 'Fortress' mentality will become more evident too. It is appearing already.
NZ used to be known for having some common sense too
But every new rule, lockdown, traffic light system, mandate etc lacks basic logical reasoning.
Its like a real live version of idiocracy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ig446isvXlI
Yes, its hard to see the logic and the actual health/safety benefits. I hope the Govt provide Covid with a daily update so it knows who it can/cannot infect.
- Thursday 2/12/2021 no vax. Friday 3/12/2021 vax to enter the same place.
- We can walk around the local mall for 4 hours without being vaxxed. Sit down on just a bench in the mall and gives the kids a biscuit, no requirement. Sit down in the foodcourt next to the bench though... and you have to be vaxxed.
- Surfclub for the kids at the beach - Got to be vaccinated. Touch rugby at the park, got to be vaxxed. Swimming indoors at the local aquatic centre - No requirement to be vaxxed.
- No requirement to enter the Library. Go to the cafe in the middle of the library, and you have to be vaxxed.
- 24 people round for Xmas, no vax. 26 people and they all have to be vaccinated.
In the current scenario there are two opposite groups of people, those "doing" & those "being done". The psychology is telling us it is the doing crowd, those locking down, promoting vaccines etc are the deluded ones & the ones prone to violence.
The state of delusion distorts their thinking so that they believe roles are reversed. They are in a state of false reasoning & false belief.
Yes, this is totalitarianism, not Nazism not communism not fascism, those are political systems, totalitarianism is not a political system it is a corruption of group Dynamics it may come hand-in-hand with political change but of itself it is not political.
It is the desire of the group to impose order to alleviate their own anxiety.
"Investors are facing revaluation losses "
Let me think.
Humanity is facing the biggest cohort of ageing peoples in its history; the thick end of whom are past working age somewhere about now, and those who have made provision for their retirement years have stored their savings, where? In the bank, as used to be the case a generation and two back? No. In various assets of appreciating value? Indeed. So how do they extract their savings without selling? Borrow against them, of course! Because, God Forbid, they try to sell them to crystallise their savings. We know what might happen if they do. (Can't we see what's coming? Obviously, not)
As we all know, it's all easy looking back.
And let's not forget, it was 'us' that deregulated the banks, and voted to scrap the early superannuation initiatives. All of those changes made sense in the times that they were done. But times changed, and we didn't. It was easier to stick to what appeared to be a no-lose economic policy. My father used to laud the 'benefit' of inflation, as his wages rose; his house value rose and his mortgage debt comparatively shrank. Most people thought that way, and still do.
All that matters, now as it always does, is "What happens next?" and more of the same isn't it.
Very good comment re looking back. But we are very poor at learning from the past. As to being 'Us' who deregulated the banks. I would suggest it wasn't. It was the politicians who have always spun the message in their favour. Before the internet age the reliance was on newspapers who relied on press releases. There was seldom time for comprehensive research by the newspapers. Yes we voted for them, but the choices were always structured in way that we actually had little choice really. In addition there was always a high level of trust, but in looking back most of the politicians if not all, were simply not worthy of that trust. Today it is more obvious, but the choice is still limited.
I think the issue here is the RBNZ's mandate. Specifically the targeting of CPI (a heavily fudged metric). It clearly has caused a situation whereby the NZD is no longer a respectable store of value so older generations hoard their wealth in property & other real assets to get round this problem. This causes other adverse effects in society notably a collapsing home ownership rate in the younger generations.
Intervention by the state. That mammoth uplift in private property values offers an irresistible target for a wealth tax doesn’t it. Where exactly was that potential threshold set by the Greens and what is the percentage of values over that now. No wonder the IRD were clandestinely given unbridled powers of enquiry into the status & location of such wealth.
Nope. Because it isn't 'wealth'.
Think it through; a house is a house is a house. A share in caterpillar is a share in caterpillar is a..... And the only sellers are? Us.
to the only buyers who are? Us.
The only real wealth, is something added: something done to something. THAT can be taxed - but only if the tax has something to do something to, and something with which to do the doing. In other words, it needs resource and energy to add 'wealth', and it needs resources and energy to underwrite 'tax'. Residual 'wealth' (the old products of historic energy/resource-input) is a zero-sum stock, minus entropy; a less-than-zero-sum game.
So few seen to (want to?) acknowledge this.......
At the risk of seeming a conspiracy theorist, it is the politicians who are selling it as 'wealth' to be taxed. But you also can't deny that there have been a few, probably far less boomers than some would have us believe, who have managed to capitalise on what has happened to capitalise on and increase their personal wealth.
But I do agree with you. the problem is, it has become a lot harder to be able to own a house today than it used to be. Especially for ordinary Kiwis. Because regardless of what perspective you take the cost of putting a roof over your head has increased disproportionately in relation to the median wage, to the point where it is impossible for many. This one thing in my view is criminal negligence by our politicians, all of them from Helen Clark's government on.
No, agree certainly not a conspiracy that was set in motion way back but more of an opportunistic target that has now eventuated. Already many local councils calculate their rates on a ratio that charges more for a property of higher value than its lower valued equivalent. And to add. that the government takes 15% GST as relative. Are aware at our local council at least there have been “studies” undertaken as to how the greatly increased “equity” of homeowners might be better availed and contributed to, as to the “ needs” of the greater good of the city.
Over the weekend, the rise in US non farm payrolls for November was a sharp disappointment, with the headline number rising just +210,000 when a rise of +550,000 was expected. It is the lowest monthly rise of 2021.
WTF? Just blatant. The URL says (see for yourself) headline used to be "Treasury Yields CLIMB as Jobs Report Leaves Fed Outlook Intact" Climb? Yeah, for 2 secs before rates collapsing in further flat deflationary signals. Fed intact? In what universe? https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/
Everyone has been shouting from rooftop that Reserve bank Governors taking que from fed is screwing with their manipulative theory of Transitory Inflation to kick the can as fed governor knew how he has screwed big time but was waiting for his re nomination and now after being re nominated is so shit scared is that not even ready to wait for a month - Xmas before taking any action.
Now everyone be it media or experts are going after him and should as why the rush when data since ages has been suggesting otherwise. Accountability was missing as rising asset prices suited the decision maker and people who are suppose to hold them accountable.
Only now when inflation and situation has become so BIG that cannot be brushed under the carpet are coming out in open but will NOT BE LONG LONG BEFORE THEY COME UP WITH ANOTHER LIE AND COIN ANOTHER WORD LIKE TEMPORARY INFLATION TO KICK THE CAN FURTHER INSTEAD TAKING MEASURES THINKING LONG TERM.
Does anyone really feel that this current insanity of rising Stock and house price continue forever under guise of supply. One can delay by printing and distributing cheap money but for how can can it be avoided.
New Variant of virus is an excuse but effect of all money printing, stimulus...should be felt in 2022 after two years of generosity.
In Turkey, the president has dismissed his finance minister as the currency collapses and ration queues start to form for subsidised bread.
Global wheat prices are near ten year highs on struggling northern hemisphere production.
The US weaponizing wheat in Syria
The Syrian government has warned farmers in northeast Syria against using the wheat seeds supplied by USAID, which is a department of the US State Department in Washington.
The “seeds contain a high rate of nematodes [plant-parasitic worms], which reached 40 percent, and this poses a great danger to agriculture in the region, especially as its effects cause great damage that is exacerbated by the passage of time,” according to Said Hajji, head of the government’s agriculture directorate in Hasaka province.
USAID says the wheat seeds it recently provided to farmers meet “high standards for safety and quality.”
The 3,000 tons of wheat seeds are Turkish seeds supplied by the US government and tested in Iraq. The local Syrian agricultural labs have found the seeds to be inferior, and pose a danger of long-lasting damage.
The bread crisis in most of Syria is expected to become worse in the next few months due to drought and its subsequent impact on wheat crop production.
Plenty of research if you look
Rates of bowel cancer vary across New Zealand, with the highest incidence in South Canterbury, with an age-standardised rate of 86.5 cases per 100,000 people. Bowel cancer is the second-highest cause of cancer death in New Zealand and each year around 3000 people are diagnosed and 1200 die of the disease.
A recent Fish and Game New Zealand investigation of drinking water supplies in the Canterbury region found that nitrate levels in drinking water sourced from groundwater in areas of intensive farming and horticulture are already high and rising.
The findings are consistent with data from the regional council Environment Canterbury. The latest groundwater report showed that half of the wells they monitor have values greater than 3ppm nitrate-nitrogen, more than three times the Danish study’s trigger level for colorectal cancer risk.
Correct. Also a total loss of nutrients from 'dirt' farmers using their synthetic chemicals, needing ever more water, to grow a commodity, that cannot even be classified as food. Hence the sick, unhealthy mass of people whose immunity struggle with a mild cold virus.
"In Turkey, the president has dismissed his finance minister as the currency collapses and ration queues start to form for subsidised bread."
Actually the way crisis has been handled and crisis has been exploited - many governors and politicians should be fired.
Important Question : Has earning changed so drastically under Jacinda Arden that today Million dollar has lost its value. Rise in wage by few percentage has long been eaten away by inflation. When Jacinda Arden was talking of raising minimum wages by few percentage, people did not realize her game plan that expenditure / outflow will increase by double digit and all in name of prosperity.
She can hide behind pandemic for now but for how long.
Also massive news in SE Asia and China with the opening of the Kunming (China) to Vientiane fast railway. For Laos, that will be such a massive boost to their economy as it's pretty much a dirt poor country. It's time we recognise China has done some incredible infrastructure work, that is likely to hugely benefit trade and travel throughout SE Asia, particularly when the railway is extended through to Singapore.
I recommend checking it out on google maps, trying to follow it through Laos, which is an extremely mountainous country in the North. It's quite a feat of engineering, unlikely to be replicated by any other country in current times. For context, this project consisting of roughly 1000km of high speed rail through numerous multi km long tunnels and huge bridges was started in 2016 and finished this year. In comparison, the 27km long Transmission Gully in Wellington, with a couple of bridges and no tunnels was started in 2014 and might open at the end of this year.
Yep, will open up huge tourism oppourtunities for Laos, in both directions. They will struggle however, particularly with the different Chinese mindsets/culture/religious differences and the language, I imagine most will revert to English. Business oppourtunities will abound too as people from both countries get to see ways parts of the corridor can be used to make money. The minorities in the SW part of China have benefitted enormously from the governments infrastructure investments in the area, with few drawbacks. The drawbacks for those minorities are mainly around some loss of control of their autonomy and cultural appropriation/dilution. As Laos is a different country though, they hopefully won't be affected, though the economic power of the Chinese will create negative incentives as well (drinking/gambling/prostitution), which they will have to watch carefully. In quite a few places surrounding the Chinese border there are towns dedicated to catering to Chinese gamblers as it is illegal to gamble in China.
Blobbles - my comment was 100% sarc.
You do not 'make money'; you obtain a socially-agree right to access resources and energy. Thus the latter are the real wealth. And on that basis, the railway is an ultimate debt. There is already more debt held on the planet, than there is planet available to underwrite it - yet you laud more?
I've put up an awful lot of stuff here, over the years. How is it that you are away back at the 'making money' level?
Driving through Laos a couple of years ago the contrast between pot holed dirt roads intersecting with the huge fancy railway was quite jarring. I don't think many people will be stopping and it's mostly intended to get goods and people through to Thailand rather than to Laos, while Laos try to pay off the debt.
I do recommend stopping in Laos though, great food and people and beautiful scenery.
If you have visited Laos, you will know the strong cultural and religious aspects to the country - Chinese people by and large love visiting diverse places, much like most Westerners do. Particularly one that is strongly buddhist as many Chinese people are, often by nature if not overtly. Both cultures also have many people who are entrepreneurial as well, which bodes well for future development. IMO it will be massively beneficial for Laos, providing they are able to control the negatives as outlined.
Most chinese visitors to Laos use the Chinese owned casino a short walk from the border post and then return. It was amazing to visit in both 2009 and 2012 and see the dirt road and wooden shed of a border post transformed into something closer to an airport termina.
Indeed, Henry Kissinger/Nixon etc are massive war criminals, that should have been put on trail at the Hague. Shows you the messed up politics of the world where mass murderers get away with heinous acts are are celebrated as statesmen, even though they willingly carpet bombed civilians in a country not even at war leaving UXO that is still killing people to this day.
On this day in 1962, the US military began its 11-year chemical warfare campaign against the people of Vietnam and Laos, dropping 19 million gallons of Agent Orange over 20% of both countries, poisoning at least 3 million people and causing over a million birth defects.
US President John F. Kennedy personally approved “Operation Ranch Hand” in 1962, beginning the spraying of Agent Orange (and other chemicals) over 5 million acres of jungle and 500,000 acres of crops, including over 20,000 spray flights. Link
Try and be balanced. How many were murdered by the Communists in Viet Nam? Many more than died by American hands, the American media refused to report on it. Besides JFK intended to pull out of that war, and I suspect that he was advised that spraying the jungle to take away the hiding placed of the Viet Cong would have minimal effect on the villagers and/or deny food for the VC. Plus at that stage I'm not sure that the full impacts of dioxin in Agent Orange was either known or acknowledged by the chemical companies. Certainly none of the troops involved in applying it were told.
But really don't you mean Roosevelt? Curtis Le May openly admitted that if the allies had lost WW2 the leadership would have been tried for war crimes, and he referred to the fire bombing in Europe and Japan, and the use of nukes.
That's why JFK intended to pull out. He did not really buy into the domino theory that was sold at the time and justified the war as being fundamentally anti-communist. History teaches us that the war was in fact an internal spat. Henry Cabot Lodge, the then ambassador advised against it. He also knew Ho Chi Minh quite well. The US lost a very good opportunity to make in roads against communist totalitarianism by not understanding him. JFK's assassination, blamed on the Russians who actually stood to gain nothing from it, opened the door to LBJ who was nowhere near the man JFK was, and he was thoroughly played by the MIC.
But there is still plenty of evidence of the communists committing significant atrocities during and after the war.
Murray, just because some people might have done something bad, does not condone the actions of those that have definitely done horrific acts. Try to be balanced??? In our country, how often do you read about the millions of civilians murdered or maimed during American adventurism abroad? In our media and culture, American led wars are glorified to be all about freeing some people in some places from the yolk of some tyranny. It's all "rah rah rah, America is great", so for balance, you can read my comment. I am specifically talking about operation menu and others, authorised by Nixon.
For instance, how many news articles have you ever read about the hundreds of thousands of dead civilians in Iraq due to an illegal invasion? Hell, we have fallen in with the American viewpoint so heavily that we don't even protest when Americans slaughter children due to a whoopsy. Don't worry though, they regret it. If I went into a school and murdered 7 children, I would be called a deranged psychopath, be called a terrorist and given a lengthy sentence where I would die in jail. But when the American military leaders do it, it barely even rates a mention, in fact, they state "They find no violation of law" when "investigating" the incident. How many people in the incident have been charged? None! They tracked a car for 8 hours and believed it was full of insurgents and bombs, when it was actually filled with kids, which they KNEW about 2 minutes before the strike, but went ahead anyway. So they knowingly execute children without cause or justification during a period which there was no war, nor any real threat to them and we as their ally barely read about it, don't demand justice and just go along with whatever their official line is. Which shows you how "balanced" our world view is.
I'm not trying to defend the US. Your comments came across as unbalanced.
it is funny these days there is a lot of criticism of the US, which claims to be democratic and governed by the rule of law, but try applying those same measures to say the communist leadership of Viet Nam in the 60's, Russia, China, the Taliban, and plenty of others and then explain to me that these debates only seem to criticise the US? Is it perhaps that their 'rule of law' means they can be held to account more easily? Are they really the biggest bogie we should fear? If our persistent public criticism is successful and they dial it all back, what then will the undisguised despots in the world do?
NZD tanking and inflation climbing not good start to week people’s savings are loosing purchase power. Bitcoin has tanked over weekend and I would think all markets are going to take a hit this week. Government needs to make sure NZD does not slide any more if this means lifting OCR so be it. Everyone is aware house prices are at crazy levels and this market is due for a haircut just how much, short back and sides or a Kojak.
Forward rates still forecast NZ interest rates to be higher than those in the US looking out into the future - admittedly the 3mth rate has pulled back from around -12 pips to the current -8.73 pips level.
Recent RBNZ intervention via FX Swaps maybe the cause of this outcome.
...there is a growing Omicron outbreak in Sydney.
Based on all the commentary I've read so far it sounds like I'd rather get Omicron than Delta or earlier variant.
We should prepare for a possible scenario where allowing Omicron to across the border, presumably by resuming travel without test or quarantine, may actually be the lesser of two evils and save lives. We'll have to see what the WHO view is on it but it's looking like a real possibility.
I don't think it would matter if Omicron made you look like Brad Pitt and lined your pocket with a million bucks - there are so many people so terrified by Covid, that even if Omicron is the mild variant that lets us get back to normality, I fail to see how you'll convince the frightened masses that it's safe to go outside.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127184959/nothing-ha…
This confidence comes from words and action of Mr Orr and Jacinda Arden, who firmly believes that house price should keep rising and they as a team should everything to support and promote.
I would not believe anything this government has said where are the 100000 houses promised to build what about bringing kids out of poverty. People queuing at food banks people homeless living in cars. Crime levels growing because when you have nothing what do you have to lose. I could go on.
That opinion is everywhere. Take Australia, for instance:
The Liar (the Australian Prime Minister) has repeatedly underlined his own problem in public. Because his personality is a lie, he only knows how to lie, and the truth strikes him as falsehood. Hence, rather than pursue the bedrock of the national interest, sound policy process and governing, the Liar expends his energy on forcing more lies onto a polity that has a better grasp of reality than he does.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/12/liar-demands-media-lie-about-l…
The idiots who think Covid is not serious need to talk to a 36 year friend of our daughter. She got it in February last year while travelling in Europe. Her words” I felt like I was burning from inside, I have never been so ill in my life and I would not wish it on my worst enemy.”
Twenty months later she still has breathing issues.
Blobbles if you are vaccinated you can still transmit. Just how hard is that to understand. You could infect me. Vaccinated individuals could be more infectious with the next mutation. There are no long-term clinical trials proving otherwise. At first it was vaccines cure everything and our borders will open, then the un-vaxxed were the problem, then we needed a booster, then another lockdown, then the MIQ mutants were the problem, now a new variant and I am sure another 'booster'. Now my personal choice affects everyone. Like a lockdown doesn't? Can you not see the trend. Can you not see the government control and the promise of borders opening up. Until you guys stop feeding the fear and living in it, you will only continue to lose your freedom and country. Because the government is controlling you with your blind fear.
If you start off with a straw man, the rest of it isn't worth reading... Never said that vaccinated won't transmit the virus, but the vaccinated have far, far superior outcomes. The rest of this statement is almost exclusively bullocks. "Vaccinated individuals could be more infectious with the next mutation", zero evidence of this. "There are no long-term clinical trials proving otherwise.", you can't test for something that doesn't exist yet. "At first it was vaccines cure everything and our borders will open" total bull, this was never said anywhere that I heard. "...then the un-vaxxed were the problem", still are, look at the case demographics if you don't believe it. "Now my personal choice affects everyone" - as is always the case, unless you live in an isolated container and never interact with anybody else? "Can you not see the government control and the promise of borders opening up.Until you guys stop feeding the fear and living in it, you will only continue to lose your freedom and country. Because the government is controlling you with your blind fear." you are using a slippery slope logical fallacy. I aren't afraid, because I am vaccinated and will continue to get boosters. It seems to be you that is living in fear, perpetual delusion, or fantasy, that the government is turning into a tyranny. Do you do this so you can appear to be a hero in your own mind?
Covid is serious to the unhealthy, immune compromised, brought upon by their lifestyle choices. Old age included. Nobody is responsible for their 'health' anymore, you trust doctors for a quick fix and now you expect me to get vaccinated to keep you 'safe'. I'm the idiot that believes covid is only as serious as your lifestyle choices have let it become. I am now into my 7th shitty day with this virus and the only fear I have is our freedoms and our country. And no, it is not that 'serious'.
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