Tuesday update:
The Ministry of Health is reporting 15 new Covid cases in the community - all in Auckland.
That follows 33 cases on Monday, 20 cases on Sunday and 23 on Saturday and brings the total in this outbreak to 970.
Of the current community cases, 22 cases are in hospital, with four in ICU - all requiring ventilation.
Of the latest 15 cases, Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said they were all linked and all household contacts - from five households.
And Bloomfield said that all 33 of the cases from Monday had now been linked.
Of the 33 cases reported on Monday, eight were infectious in the community.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was again urging people to get vaccinated and she announced that six buses, later to expand to 12 would be hitting the streets in Auckland with mobile vaccination services from Thursday.
She said there was capacity to give 220,000 doses in Auckland this week.
"There's nothing holding us back..."
She said if 130,000 Aucklanders who had not yet received a jab all got themselves the first jab this week, it would mean 80% of Auckland would have had at least one jab.
Bloomfield was urging continued high levels of testing.
"High levels of testing will help get Auckland out of lockdown as planned and to stay out."
This is the Ministry's Covid update release:
| Cases | |
| Number of new community cases | 15 |
| Number of new cases identified at the border | Two |
| Location of new cases | Auckland |
| Location of community cases (total) | Auckland 953 (382 of whom have recovered); Wellington 17 (12 of whom have recovered) |
| Number of community cases (total) | 970 (in current community outbreak) |
| Cases infectious in the community | Eight (26%) of yesterday’s cases have exposure events |
| Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious | 23 (74%) of yesterday’s cases |
| Cases epidemiologically linked | All 15 are household contacts |
| Cases to be epidemiologically linked | Zero of today’s cases |
| *Cases epidemiologically linked (total) | 942 (in current cluster) (10 unlinked) |
| Number of sub-clusters | Nine epidemiologically linked subclusters. The two largest subclusters are the Mangere church group: 381; and Birkdale social network cluster: 77. There are nine epidemiologically unlinked subclusters. |
| Cases in hospital | 22 (total): North Shore (4); Auckland (8); Middlemore (10) |
| Cases in ICU or HDU | Four |
| Confirmed cases (total) | 3,610 since pandemic began |
| *Historical cases, since 1 Jan 2021 (total) | 142 out of 1,792 since 1 Jan 2021 |
| *Contacts | |
| Number of active contacts being managed (total) | 1,242 |
| Percentage who have received an outbound call from contact tracers (to confirm testing and isolation requirements) | 89% |
| Percentage with at least one test result | 85% |
| Locations of interest | |
| Locations of interest (total) | 133 (as at 10am 14 September) |
| Tests | |
| Number of tests (total) | 3,158,224 |
| Number of tests total (last 24 hours) | 9,279 |
| Tests rolling average (last 7 days) | 12,735 |
| Tests in Auckland (last 24 hours) | 7,823 |
| Testing centres in Auckland | 22 |
| *Wastewater | |
| Wastewater detections | One sample from Pukekohe detected the COVID-19 virus. Further tests are underway |
| COVID-19 vaccine update | |
| Vaccines administered to date (total) | 4,380,953; 1st doses: 2,897,385; 2nd doses: 1,483,568 |
| Vaccines administered yesterday (total) | 54,877; 1st doses: 34,145; 2nd doses: 20,732 |
| Mâori | 1st doses: 269,506; 2nd doses: 129,609 |
| Pacific Peoples | 1st doses: 174,961; 2nd doses: 89,576 |
| NZ COVID-19 tracer | |
| Registered users (total) | 3,213,919 |
| Poster scans (total) | 356,409,054 |
| Manual diary entries (total) | 16,217,756 |
| Poster scans in 24 hours to midday yesterday | 2,145,540 |
New cases identified at the border
| Arrival date | From | Via | Positive test day/reason | Managed isolation/quarantine location |
| 9 September | Serbia and Montenegro | United Arab Emirates | Day 3 routine | Auckland |
| 10 September | United Kingdom | United Arab Emirates | Day 2 / routine | Auckland |
*Linked cases
The total unlinked cases is of the cases reported within the past 14 days. The remainder of cases are now older than 14 days and have been closed. It is important to note that no onward transmission has occurred from these cases.
*Historical cases
Five previously reported historical cases had a health status of ‘not recovered. These has been updated in our systems and have now been added to the historical case count, which is why the number has increased.
*Contacts
We now have 1,242 contacts under active management. This is a change from reporting total contacts across the whole outbreak. The number of contacts under active management has fallen considerably over the past two weeks, as the majority of our contacts had exposures more than 18 days ago and have been closed.
*Wastewater
Health officials are aware of two recently recovered cases, who were released from quarantine on 30 August and 4 September who live in the same area as the latest detection. Further investigations are being carried out.
Testing reminder
It’s pleasing to see testing numbers up yesterday.
Testing around New Zealand, and especially in Auckland, remains an essential part of our response to this outbreak. We want to find cases and testing provides confidence for understanding the extent of any spread of COVID-19.
Workers who have been invited to have a voluntary one-off asymptomatic COVID-19 test are able to return to work while they wait for their test results as they are not symptomatic. p
There is a focus on health sector workers from district health boards, primary care and community health providers, as well as some Government agencies, emergency services, supermarket operators, supply chain, post and logistics, petrol stations and dairies, transport operators and some local council workers.
These groups of workers are being contacted and asked to go to their local Community Testing Centre, and for a few organisations we are providing on-site testing.
For the remainder of today and tomorrow, a pop-up testing site has opened at the Gull service station at Hampton Downs.
We are continuing to remind people across Auckland to get tested if you have symptoms, especially if you live in and around Mt Eden, Massey, Favona, Ôtara, Papatoetoe, Mângere and Manurewa.
66 Comments
Jacinda made a point to say that by next week, they're expecting that 80% of Aucklanders will have had at least 1 dose of vaccine. She also encouraged people who had vaccines booked for October, to move them forwards to this week, as there are 90,000 slots available on the website at present, in addition to walk-in (or drive-thru) sites that don't require a booking.
I suspect this probably played into their "in principal" decision to move to level 3 next Tuesday.
Was it 80% of all Aucklanders, or 80% of eligible Aucklanders, I would be surprised in the former based on the nationwide stats, though there isn't a good breakdown by region. 0-12 year olds aren't eligible, make up about 10% of the population, are low risk but are still potential carriers.
Off topic but it looks like the banks are being hit again
Dr Bloomfield just said that they've seen 16% of people (household contacts) testing positive on their day 12 tests.
He didn't say it, but that likely explains part of the 33 spike yesterday.
Edit: he just said the latest data shows that in the cases amongst people who are eligible to be vaccinated (12 years+), 78% of cases were unvaccinated, 18% had 1 vaccination and only 4% had two vaccinations.
In other words, vaccinations make a big difference in stopping people from being infected - I know some people in the comments section had been asking for this statistic, so there it is.
Whats going on here Lanthanide?? Public Health England report
see page 18
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
For the period of February 1 through August 2 there were COVID Delta variant cases for 47,000 people who had received 2 vaccine doses, and for 151,054 people who were unvaccinated.
In the first group of vaccinated people, there were a total of 402 deaths. In the second much larger group with more than three times unvaccinated people, there were just 253 deaths.
In other words, of the total COVID deaths 61 percent were in fully vaccinated people.
To get the death rate you divide the number of deaths by the total number of infection cases.
That gives a death rate of .86 percent among the vaccinated and .17 percent among the unvaccinated.
That is an amazing difference. The death rate among vaccinated was just over five times greater than that for the unvaccinated.
hmmm
what about here?
Boys more at risk from Pfizer jab side-effect than Covid, suggests study. No conspiracy theory here, mainstream information.
sounds safe
Do you think I'm a PR representative of public health england or something?
The death rate among vaccinated was just over five times greater than that for the unvaccinated.
Ok, and are the underlying demographics for the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations identical? Yes, or no? If no, how do they differ, and how do those differences influence death rates for those infected by COVID?
sounds safe
Yip, science at work. Good to see it, eh?
First thanks for sharing the report it was very informative. Reading the table you mention, for people over 50 who very double jabbed and ended up in hospital with Delta, there has been a 1.8% death rate VS over 50 years old unvaccinated who ended up in hospital with Delta who had a death rate of 5%. This is a huge difference.
Also, for under 50 years group, your chance of going to hospital with Dleta and needing emergency care was 2% for vaccinated people compared to 4% for unvaccinated. A similar statsitics is for people who needed ICU etc (the risk is doubled for unvaccinated group). For older folk the risk factor is 4! you would be four times more likely to need ICU if you are over 50 and unvaccinated than you would be if you are double jabbed.
This is great evidence of effectiveness of vaccination in general, keeping in mind that UK has used a less effective vaccine.
no problem
"Reading the table you mention, for people over 50 who very double jabbed and ended up in hospital with Delta, there has been a 1.8% death rate VS over 50 years old unvaccinated who ended up in hospital with Delta who had a death rate of 5%. "
Indeed - The reverse therefore holding true for the under 50 death rate
Interestingly 1 dose outdoes both measures ... which means there is likely noise in the data
Delta seems to be a sneaky little bastard. China is reporting dealing with a case that didn't become evident until after 21 days of quarantine and 9 negative tests! This guy returned from Singapore. He had been released from quarantine when he got the symptoms, and investigations only point to him as being the index case.
My understanding at present on the research that has been presented so far is that, the viral loads peak and timelines between an infected individual , vaccinated or unvaccinated. are similar. That is they can infect others equally . You have provided a study of 161 individuals yesterday that suggests otherwise. That is fine. Our views differ
You state today 'In other words, vaccinations make a big difference in stopping people from being infected ' Yet without the timeline and only being provided percentages, and knowing just 12 days ago 75 percent of the general population were either unvaccinated or one dose, surely the data or interpretation would be skewed in one direction without the details of the hard numbers and dependent on the timeline of vaccinations among a myriad of other factors. For example New Zealand has approx 35000 in aged care facilities including my dear mother, a very high percentage were "early" double vaxed and would be extremely unlikely to infect others by roaming the community as they are continuously locked up
It's going to be an interesting case study to watch the outcome of the Wanaka duo, both in how it will be handled by their PR team in an attempt to salvage their reputations, and how it will be handled by the authorities so as to not undermine public commitment to following lockdown rules.
helps having a mother who is high up, should get off with a fine and diversion
they were unlucky to be caught there are hundreds of aucklanders that fled in level 4 not to mention the students that only got a warning when caught. maybe it had something to do with attitude as to why they were charged and not formally warned
Sounds like she's pretty much abandoned him from the statement she released!
It's all a bit awkward. He's a 35 year old man responsible for his actions, not her naughty kiddo. At any rate sounds like anyone associated with the couple are sh*ing themselves. I would not want to be the girlfriend in her current workplace, I suspect she's not feeling very welcome.
From what can ascertain from unofficial channels, one family concerned could be considered as a bit unorthodox. There is though the element of legal qualifications. It would be immorality itself if those that are qualified in our law, are sworn to uphold the jurisdiction of it, could use it themselves to remain anonymous, when they break it. That would undermine a lot more than just the public’s confidence in covid criteria being implemented.
Laws don't apply to the elites of society. At worst they'll incur a small financial penalty. They're not going to do time in the clink because they can afford classy lawyers and mummy can throw her weight around.
It's a good test case for the justice system as to whether it can avoid leniency and prosecute it's own.
Quite right.
I watched "The Judge" on Netflix last night (Robert Downer jnr; himself one who managed to somewhat recover from transgression) and the underlying premise was - previous decisions handed-down would now come under scrutiny/appeal, and any future ruling would be subject to the same.
It will be a good watch in real life, as the Netflix movie was.
Time line still doesn't quite equate. You need the 80% on their second dose not the first and with a couple of weeks in between that delays things. Best case is still level 4 until 1st October and a very tight level 3 after that which is still really level 4 anyway. Even level 2 now in the regions is still not the old level 2 as the paranoia has really set in this time around.
Public Health England
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
For the period of February 1 through August 2 there were COVID Delta variant cases for 47,000 people who had received 2 vaccine doses, and for 151,054 people who were unvaccinated.
In the first group of vaccinated people, there were a total of 402 deaths. In the second much larger group with more than three times unvaccinated people, there were just 253 deaths.
In other words, of the total COVID deaths 61 percent were in fully vaccinated people.
Comparison of viral load Ct by vaccination status
In the NHS Test and Trace (NHSTT) case data, the mean and median lowest Ct values for all cases with Delta, where Ct data are available, since the 14 June 2021 are similar, with a median of 17.8 for unvaccinated and 18.0 for those with 2 vaccine doses (Figure 12). This means that whilst vaccination may reduce an individual’s overall risk of becoming infected, once they are infected there is limited difference in viral load (and Ct values) between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated. Given they have similar Ct values, this suggests limited difference in infectiousness.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uplo…
In other words, of the total COVID deaths 61 percent were in fully vaccinated people.
Look up bayes theorem which largely explains this, once you take into account the underlying likelihood of death amongst the groups, aside from their vaccination status. Simply saying "vaccinated" and "unvaccinated" is not helpful, because it is likely that the vaccinated group contains many people that are at a much higher risk of death to begin with than the unvaccinated group, so it's not surprising that even with vaccines, deaths amongst that group are high. They'd be even higher still if they weren't vaccinated.
True but just short of midnight, airport depth of Sth America, airline of obscure identity, and the woman in question appears to be a sincere but very strange too, missionary of quite some learning & faith, asks that question, it could have slightly unnerving, had I not had then nerves of steel(or fortified actually) . Mind you, the religious are not all above inflicting their humour on pagans of course.
They're out there. I got warned about "all the miscarriages, and the stillbirths, so many stillbirths" resulting from the vaccine before I went to get my first shot while pregnant.
It's next level hysteria and usually I would generally just avoid having people that silly in my life. Unfortunately they're acquired family.
We are very close to 70% to 80% eligible having their 1st shot – and in a general sense it seems that at 70% to 80% fully vaccinated is something of a target in terms of loosening up various restrictions.
Those getting their first shot over the next few days to take us to 70 or 80% I imagine won’t get their second shot until the end of October.
So are we in some sort of limbo until the end of October – continuing to hope that this current outbreak is eliminated or severely contained in the meantime?
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