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Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
18th Mar 24, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
13th Mar 24, 9:34am
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Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
11th Mar 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
4th Mar 24, 11:41am
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Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
Roger J Kerr says from past performances we all should have known that Governor Orr would take the opportunity to, yet again, wrong-foot the markets
4th Mar 24, 8:51am
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Roger J Kerr says from past performances we all should have known that Governor Orr would take the opportunity to, yet again, wrong-foot the markets
Patience required as China's economy, like much of the world, deals with a Covid-19 hangover, says David Mahon in our Of Interest podcast
3rd Mar 24, 6:00am
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Patience required as China's economy, like much of the world, deals with a Covid-19 hangover, says David Mahon in our Of Interest podcast
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
28th Feb 24, 2:13pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
26th Feb 24, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
Our national airline says it is 'leaning into the reality of a worsening revenue and cost environment'
22nd Feb 24, 9:34am
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Our national airline says it is 'leaning into the reality of a worsening revenue and cost environment'
Our national airline announces profit guidance suggesting the second half of the current financial year is proving to be a very bumpy one
19th Feb 24, 11:49am
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Our national airline announces profit guidance suggesting the second half of the current financial year is proving to be a very bumpy one
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
19th Feb 24, 8:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
Profits have replaced labour costs as a leading indicator of inflation, Bank for International Settlements working paper says
13th Feb 24, 4:30pm
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Profits have replaced labour costs as a leading indicator of inflation, Bank for International Settlements working paper says
[updated]
Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
13th Feb 24, 3:35pm
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Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
12th Feb 24, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
5th Feb 24, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
Labour market figures out in the coming week tipped to show unemployment rising from the last recorded 3.9% rate to 4.2% or higher
4th Feb 24, 6:01am
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Labour market figures out in the coming week tipped to show unemployment rising from the last recorded 3.9% rate to 4.2% or higher
Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
29th Jan 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth increased by $5.3 billion in the September 2023 quarter, while savings rates remained steady
25th Jan 24, 11:35am
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Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth increased by $5.3 billion in the September 2023 quarter, while savings rates remained steady
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
22nd Jan 24, 7:55am
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Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
The BNZ/SEEK Employment Report shows that the number of applications per job advertisement has now hit unprecedented levels
16th Jan 24, 11:03am
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The BNZ/SEEK Employment Report shows that the number of applications per job advertisement has now hit unprecedented levels
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
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Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
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Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
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Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Labour-led government's ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure investments were too focused on announcements and were not fully scoped
14th Dec 23, 4:42pm
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Labour-led government's ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure investments were too focused on announcements and were not fully scoped
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target