August was not a great month for the residential real estate industry with the number of homes sold down 26.5% and median prices falling in six regions,
According to the latest sales data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, 5753 residential properties were sold in August this year, compared to 7828 in August last year.
The decline in sales was not unexpected with the country in Level 4 lockdown during the second half of the month, but Auckland appears to have weathered the storm better than the rest of the country,
In Auckland sales numbers in August were down just 12.8% compared to August last year while in the rest of the country, excluding Auckland sales were down 33.7% compared to a year ago.
Prices signals were also mixed.
The national median selling price hit a new record of $850,000 in August, giving an annual growth rate of 25.5%.
Although most regions recorded ongoing growth in median prices in August it was significant that median prices in six regions recorded declines between July and August.
Some of those price falls were substantial, such as Northland where the median price declined from $660,000 in July to $580,000 in August, and Gisborne where it declined from $625,000 in July to $500,000 in August.
Other regions where the median price declined in August compared to July were Hawke's Bay -$25,000, Nelson Marlborough -$29,900, Otago -$5000, and Southland -$15,000.
Within the Otago region median prices in Queenstown-Lakes declined from $1,170,000 in July to $1,045,000 in August, while Dunedin's median price declined from $651,000 to $629,000 over the same period.
However with sales activity being so significantly affected by the lockdown in August, it is too early to say if the regions that experienced price falls are heralding a change in the market.
"It is the time of year that people start to prepare their property for the usual increase in spring sales activity, and it is expected that that this will be stronger this year as listing is delayed due due to lockdown," REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said.
"We understand that vendors have been preparing their properties for market, to list once we reach a lower alert level.
"We expect to see the result of this in our September data," she said.
See the interactive graphs below for the median price and sales volume trends in all regions.
The REINZ monthly data is provisional and may be subject to revision.
The comment stream on this story is now closed.
Median price - REINZ
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Volumes sold - REINZ
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113 Comments
How do people afford to buy in Auckland? The bank of Mum and Dad.
Increase in prices will continue in Auckland until autumn 2022. It's going to be a hot selling season.
Supply of new builds is slowing because of materials price increases and materials shortages as well as The Covid. Anyone who wants a home will be forced to look at existing
Yes, and that means FHB buying will decrease, and the mix of sales will shift. That is, there will be fewer sales of new, lower priced 1 and 2 bedroom townhouses because less will be delivered to the market.
As a result, median values will rise, HPI less so.
Then factor in the big high density rezonings occurring next year, which will set off another developer buying frenzy mid to late next year.
Finally, delay in OCR increases.
I see Auckland median values being 10-15% higher this time next year, unless a financial crisis strikes.
Cheaper to buy existing homes due to ongoing building supply issue sad be true.
Yep my sons are getting their funds from the Mum and Dad Bank, aka MAD Bank
What's crazy is that even though prices are expensive, if you do have the 20% deposit, it's way cheaper to buy than to rent. It's almost impossible to find a decent rental unit in Auckland at a reasonable price. There is literally no rentals available and you are fighting with dozens others on the same place.
You've got to be kidding. Are you talking about the entire market, or just the lower end?
Plenty of rentals to choose from if you have a budget of $650+ per week. And in many cases it's much cheaper to rent, unless you count capital gains too (which is only fair if you also count how much money you can make with your deposit invested in various asset classes). You'd have to pay an extra 200-300 per week for the mortgage on the same house.
Or does "cheaper" mean you're only looking at the interest payments? Do you include rates, insurance, repairs etc.? Sure, you have a lot of people competing for a house at 550 per week. But those people won't be the ones who could pay $800 per week for a mortgage.
It sounds to me that you are including principal repayments in your figure of 800pw... that calculates to over 5 percent of an 800k mortgage. Btw how is your 800k mortgage or have you not committed yet
Overall up, finally we are aiming for another boom coming summer.
Govt: There is no silver bullet.
But there are always options and options have consequences. (Just saying)
No more government intervention, let the market sort itself out.
"Property_Wizard" .....let the market sought itself out all right ...fully behind that one .....and get rid of the accommodation supplement as well ....it's just tax payer money being transferred to the banks via the landlords to pay their mortgage interest.
I for one are for a totally free market, where rents are governed by market conditions, not "artificially propped up" - works in most other places.
Agree , let the market decide, If the Reserve bank hadn't made changes to deflate interest rates and reduce LVR's, then we would probably have had flat to negative house price growth from March 2020. Orr got scared of the Bogey Man even after employment etc were ok.
He didn't get scared. He did it on purpose.
He was busying slashing rates trying to pump house prices even way back in 2019.
You are incorrect as the AS goes into the pockets of tenants and boosts their spending
Lol, it's a handout to landlords with a middleman in the form of the tenant.. Except they don't get a cut like most middlemen.
Flying High ??? .....are you there or are you way off in the clouds or something .........as you said "You are incorrect as the AS goes into the pockets of tenants and boosts their spending" ..........the sooner landlords get their hands out of the taxpayers pocket, the better.
How does it "boost their spending" ? ...it boosts it, so they just have the minimum amount to live off - once the taxpayer has propped up your so called "market" rents ! What a load of BS !
If I couldn't afford a rent for a particular property I would go elsewhere .......and I don't expect the taxpayer to top up my rent at all.
BTW : been both a tenant and landlord, so can see "both sides" of the fence in this "one-sided game"
The silver bullet would work if it were used on this government.
... I cannot recall a government who've so utterly failed at everything they're set out to do ... the list is staggering ... and yet , Ardern retains a 50 % approval rating .... says something about how hopeless Collins is as leader of the Gnats ...
I am centre left and like Seymour more than anyone, that's saying something! Strange times
I'm not surprised by this. The ACT party originated from the Labour Party. It's conceivable they could form a coalition Govt in future.
If ACT ever forms the Government, house prices will go into hyperdrive.
TTP
It's already in hyperdrive what worst can happen than this.
Another 50% up, bring it on.
We have already seen 100% increase in last 4 years under govt of labour.
TTP ....can you tell me in your "infinite wisdom" how could house prices could go into "hyperdrive" ??? .....this market is just so ridiculous overpriced all ready and with interest rates going up because we have such a "glowing economy", will wages and salaries follow ?
While in your neck of the woods, areas like where you are will be the first to fall back ..... or are you also "immune" from that as well......
ACT describe themselves as "a pro immigration party". That ought to keep pushing prices higher. And it ought to make you think twice about giving them your vote.
I was thinking that myself last night. How wierd.
Modern day NZ could be compared to 1984 by Orwell. People listening to the newspeak at 1pm from the ministry. Their every movement being tracked by the ministry. The ministry confining people to their own homes. Thought police are introducing laws control 'hate speak'. Proles (tenants) are bullied by insiders (landlords) who live in the pocket of the government.
Has centrist government become extreme and outlier parties like Act more normal?
Me also. Labour voter for life but I would vote Act and Seymour today. Think he’s the best politician in the country.
Yes he has a way of saying on telly what the average kiwi thinks. But read their policies.
For example they want 3 waters to be funded by public private partnerships. They give iwi as an example of who might buy in and be the private owners of your water supply. But it could equally be an overseas government that owns it.
So far most councils oppose transferring water to anyone.
Ardern does the country a disservice by failing to surround herself with the most intelligent and competent people.
Instead Labour party selection criteria and civil service appointments are heavily influenced by woke identity politics and diversity quotas.
When competence and merit is a secondary thought you end up with the likes of her disaster of a government.
Politics is a team sport. Unfortunately, our media has driven a presidential style election. By Labour’s own historic standards, the current red team are very, very poor.
As much as I have come to dislike her, Ardern is far from being Labour's biggest issue. She could be a real asset if she had a strong team. But she has a weak team.
A weak team. I'd say Covid (and National currently being uninspiring) is the only thing propping them up.
Labour will win the next election anyway... btw my political forecasts have always been wrong!
Very accurate Brock totally agree.
ardern has surrounded herself with the most intelligent people in her party and the gweens, unfortunately she can only choose between a mongoloid amoeba with 2 brains cells a dead possum or a few beached land whales.
Agreed. The current lot and their policies around housing are near useless. Even with a lot of state housing being added, that's up in the air given the government has been purchasing homes to turn into state housing taking away from the market. Kiwibuild? That's taking builders away from the private sector at full capacity so it works out to no net gain.
But National are uninspiring. When you think National party. What policies can you name? I can't name a single one. I was expecting they'd come out with something like a new hydro dam (or electricity related) in the wake of the power shortage last month. They need to work on their ideas. Almost all the people who aren't loyal to them have shifted to other parties.
Covid hogging the limelight has been an excuse for the Nats but it hasn't stopped ACT.
There’s a good chance Act may overtake National as the legitimate opposition.
As for policy, they had some good stuff at the last election. But much of that was a hangover from Mueller and Bridges. The Collins era hasn’t had much, if anything, of substance and if you go their website there’s absolutely nothing of interest. It’s basically Labour’s not doing a good job, but nothing about what National would do different.
Without significant monthly change in composition of sales national median house price would have fallen . RBNZ set to raise OCR as country suffers quarter of negative growth. Oh dear.
Eh? HPI graphs mostly still rising or going sideways, it's the change in composition that has caused the median to drop where it has.
The national median price is at a record high . Auckland, accounted for 42 percent of national sales in August up significantly from 35 percent in July. A change in the sales composition on a regional basis has caused the national median price to rise. If the national median is not just the raw number and has been stratified or adjusted happy to be corrected.
Ah, yep, I see what you mean.
I'm hearing through the grapevine that based ion the GDP numbers and the inflation in overseas markets (worst since 1974) that RBNZ is definitely going on Oct 6th even if Auckland is still in Level 4 lockdown. That could be why the govt this morning has been indicating there will be Level 3 next week for Auckland and no more lockdowns moving forward.
RBNZ is supposedly having kittens over the level of debt still been acquired and see no other solution but to lift rates to stop inflation and more debt acquisition.
What's the source for the RBNZ having "kittens" over the debt acquired?
They deliberately set out to blow an housing bubble for their voodoo trickle down theories. They stood around and did almost nothing it as it spiralled and spiralled and spiralled out of control. It's far too late to be having kittens now.
The head of financial stability at the RBNZ has just resigned. He has an inkling of what is going to happen when his moronic asset bubble collides with the mandate to hold CPI inflation at 1-3%.
So where does the future economic growth come from, if the epic bubble that encapsulates New Zealand cannot grow further.
Selling off the remaining farmland to lock up as carbon credit pine forests, for eternity?
Can someone explain why low inflation is such an issue? So because flat screen Tv's and Travel are getting cheaper we some how need to address that and as a consequence drive Asset prices to an everything Bubble (Shares, Bonds, Houses)
Please help me understand what I am missing, I am a simple Farm Boy.
Also while anyone is at it explain why the full employment mandate isn't direct Government intervention on the Reserve Bank to keep a loose monetary policy. Employment will never by optimum.
Historical measures of inflation were based upon money supply (see graphs of M1/M2/M3 which are going vertical). So if you based our actual inflation from a historical standard (money supply), we are in a period of very high, if not, approaching hyperinflation.
Instead of using money supply to measure inflation, it was decided, as recommended by Don Brash in a rush before a xmas holiday, that we should use consumption items as a measure of real inflation. The rest of the world followed our lead. Of course nobody has considered the downside of this strategy, although it appears to be quite obvious! Reducing the discount rate (interest rates) for a series of cash flows results in higher asset pricing.
So by driving interest rates to zero, all we have done is created asset/debt bubbles (I think see Japan in late 1980's) and a headache for the future to deal with.
To directly answer your question, in my view, central banks are terrified of deflation. If we get deflation, that cycle could be tough to break. So what we witnessed early/mid last year was a direct result of the central banks around the world realising that if they didn't stop a potentially deflationary cycle, the world economy as we know it....well wouldn't be as we know it. It seemed extreme and it was and to me, that is an indication of just how close we were to anarchy.
If you get deflation with this amount of debt going around, there would be mass defaults as governments, companies and individuals ability to service the existing debt they have wouldn't be possible as their earnings fall (as would happen in a deflationary environment). So they only option was the extreme one, and to pump markets as much as possible to avoid deflation - but the question is, have they gone too far now in the other direction - where inflation becomes more of an issue than deflation. Its a pretty tough job trying to get the balance right (between not doing enough and seeing deflation, or doing too much and creating inflation).
Thanks for taking the time for such a detailed answer
Regional sales down 33% and Auckland 12%
as Auckland has most well heeled folk clearly regional prices overshot and need a correction
Or maybe the supply of Aucklanders realising they can remote work in a place without the traffic and a better work life balance that were getting out has dried up?
Anecdotally, after the last lockdown there were a lot of people moving here from the big smoke.
Gizzy and northland house prices were overcooked, I would not be surprised to see them fall a bit after the dust has settled
I'm sure despite lockdown slowing activity, the dip will be spun into stories of a 'glimmer of hope' for FHBs to keep them from revolting for a little longer.
Watch Evergrande for reverse Chinese credit impulse
2017 redux
It will be v. interesting to see if the collapsing Chinese real estate/debt market has any spillover here.
It's not as if anyone has been keeping real numbers, but my suspicion is that the peak of Chinese money into NZ real estate was a couple of years ago. So I wouldn't expect it to have a massive effect on demand. But perhaps it will affect supply, if mainlanders find themselves under strain and want to cash out that Auckland property that was purchased in a friends' name? On the other hand, they might see it as a solid asset and make it the *last* thing they sell. It'll be interesting to see, anyway; the whole effect of Chinese money on the market has been *anecdotally* so huge and *statistically* so small, it might help us figure out where the truth lies.
Good points, and I also wonder to what extent a Chinese crash would result in NZ fire sales versus retention of NZ assets.
Probably a bit of both, and limited impact.
Is there a risk of financial contagion? Would our banks or their parents be affected?
Another issue is that if China implodes and consumer demand there nosedives, what would happen to demand for our exports and how would that affect our economy?
Silverdale estate mostly owned (land) by Chinese developers. 54% drop in sales compared to 2020 in August. Cf 123% in Auckland and this has been going on since April at least.
Evergrande - China's Lehman moment?
A bit off topic but here's a gem I wanted to share:
These landlords. So caring. Doing their sacred work for the national good.
.....and we give these landlords taxpayer dollars .....as Charlie Brown would say "Good Grief" ...better I say that than what I really want to say !
But I thought it was all investors fault? Yet investors have left the market after march tax changes, and prices now rising just as fast?
Govt and robber robinson maybe just clueless.
Oh and please interest commentators tell me again how dumb I was buying half a palmy suburb 2012-2017.
Happy to rent a room to John Cleese if he has trouble finding accommodation on his next stay, I hear cindy has most the motels booked out for homeless.
Labour sure have "fixed" this housing market since coming in 4 years ago
Don't worry Simon, as soon as the new interest deductibility rules come in it will "fix" everything...
PW
Same sentiment was expressed when the FBB came into effect and Covid first hit last year . . . but it never happened. :)
I aware of several people (speculators) already budgeting and cutting their advo and toast to cover the inability to rinse their tax via their investment. Yes they are that close to the line that this is a big deal. Moving forward interest rates can only go down and tenants can always pay twice as much....double tui.
Averageman
i wouldn’t be too concerned about your speculator acquaintances. With 25% increases in prices and even with a high 30 to 40% equity that’s a 75% return on past year.
With uncertainty going forward it would make sense to get out with that assured capital gain . . . and even with the brightline tax that’s a 50% after tax return on investment in past year alone. Be able to afford lots of smashed avo and toast. :)
P..S. You need to be careful who you admit to mixing with . . . speculators aren’t considered nice people. :)
What constitutes a speculator vs investor?
Holds property 2+ years, property is cash flow positive?
PW
A speculator is generally considered as being short term in which realising capital gains are the prime consideration.
investors are generally considered to be in for the longer term where yield is consider to be the prime consideration . . . although capital gain may be considered a windfall over the longer term.
Doug Cassey defines speculators as those who take advantage of market distortions, and admits he is one (but not a gambler).
Value has little no impact on servacability of debt. Values, and not just houses, are in lala land when compared to asset income. This is why the RBNZ demanded and how has DTI. Looks like they are to scared to use it.
Cheers
Personally; I think the property party is over and talk with become limited to BBQ reminiscing. Price rises are not sustainable (although I have felt that for 10 months and they have continued to rise)
I agree: those who have come late to the party and are negatively geared will be looking to exiting . . . but likely to be reluctant and as for any investment tend to live in hope and hold on longer than they should.
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Reside…
Seems to me if you look at page 7 of the report the Government is fast losing the battle for "affordable" home sales...the % of the <$500k homes in 2020 = 26%, in 2021 = 13.3%
very sad situation for everyone and that includes current owners of properties
That problem is super easy to fix. Just introduce a new category called "sustainably priced home" => Any home with an annual price increase below 30%. As "sustainable" seems to be the new buzzword...
All this data / news is only used to support and promote housing ponzi.
If data is strong than Orr's reaction
: We have data to support that housing ponzi is slowing (Said in May and still....)
: Wait and Watch
RESULT : NO ACTION
If by chance data is slightly soft (despite indication that housing ponzi is strong)
: Market is slowing
RESULT : NO ACTION
So end result is pre determined (No Action) - data is processed to reach the pre determine end result (Only have to find reason/excuse to justify their pre determine agenda - which is to support the ponzi).
Housing bubbles ... may have them dig into retirement accounts to afford to live in their homes. Housing bubbles have been one of the main reasons why people end up losing their savings.
But here, we encourage people to dip into their Kiwisaver to buy a house and say it's a good thing
"Housing bubbles usually start with an increase in demand, in the face of limited supply, which takes a relatively extended period to replenish and increase. Speculators pour money into the market, further driving up demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices—and the bubble bursts"
Question is, at what point does NZ get to the "some point" part of this?
I'm picking it's not that far away now...
Huge increases in supply coming through the pipeline.
Very low immigration for the past couple of years and little political will to restore it.
Borders opening up soon enabling vicitimised young kiwis to flee.
Prices beyond the stratosphere versus the rental income streams.
Tax changes for rental interest deductability kicking in.
Five year brightline threshold expires next year triggering a flood of offloading.
Mortgage rate increases coming thick and fast and impending RBNZ actions to combat CPI inflation.
More LVR restrictions coming next month.
DTI restrictions coming early next year.
Covid being let loose in the population.
Boomer cohort entering their twilight years.
Everything is lining up. There will be a tipping point and it will snowball from there. Greed will turn to fear and New Zealand's "wealth" will be exposed as a paper illusion.
Unfortunately this is first home buyer dream, which is far away from reality.
People have said the same in 2017-2018 & also during first wave of Corona & see where we are.
When it happens the prospective first home buyers will be running a mile and counting their blessings.
The person responsible for the stability of the financial system has recently "resigned to persue other interests".
Coincidence or sly move before the SHTF?
BL totally agree - I just hope it is not a bad as I think it is going to be, after all it’s only money and who know what that going to worth.
Well just keep buying and putting all the money on your houses. They are a great investment in this far flung island at the bum end of the world. We do not want immigrants to come but our house . We want to live isolated and we enjoy buying houses from each other at inflated values. We are such a team of 5 Million. May be 5 and a half now. Almost 50% living in regions have mental health issues but who cares if my house price is doubling in 5 years. All public facilities are filled to the brim with very low spare capacity. But yeah who cares unless my house prices keeps increasing. We are having our head on the sand. Just wondering for how long this will keep going.
Notgreedykiwi ........it will keep going until something from overseas rocks NZ's "little apple cart" - then the RB and Govt. can easily turn round and blame that ....and then walk away from the mess "squeaky clean".
"it is expected that that this will be stronger this year as listing is delayed due due to lockdown"
Nope not necessarily. And when you look back at last year, the opposite happened with stock levels declining massively
Anyone else wondering why it seems like interest.co.nz headlines appear to be trying to jawbone down the market when one would expect their target readership to be slightly more investment oriented than stuff? https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/126368708/lockdown-h…
I think Interest is balanced whereas Stuff is more sensationalist to generate clicks.
Got to love that median house price curve. Did we just make a short stop at Everest base camp to catch our breath during level 4 lockdown ?
Yes the charts for our housing market are terrifying. If this were a share holding I'd be selling half to take profit. Instead everyone is going all in and nobody is selling....why because of the narrative 'house prices double every 7 years and never fall in NZ'.
Just looking at the chart in the in REINZ report itself....its more or less vertical now!
Won't be long before they will need to change it to a log scale so it doesn't look so terrifying.....
I would have thought Queenstown and Wanaka would be down at least 20-30% off their ATHs by now. Is small town NZ still more expensive that Perth and Brisbane? Can't really be bothered to look for myself.
NZ is a utopia...we can eliminate COVID, load up with debt, and live in million dollar homes and nothing bad will ever happen to us because, we'll, we're NZ mate!
Next minute: we can't eliminate Covid, we have an uncontrollable outbreak, small business owner collapse, our health system is overwhelmed, we can't open the borders. The rest of the world gets on with it and everyone wants to leave NZ to get abit of freedom...
How would that impact house prices 🤔
House prices only go one way in this country!
That belief is what is going to make it even more speculator when all of a sudden they don't.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”
Me thinks that's a Nifty way of saying NZ and its citizens are about to be royally screwed but the timing is uncertain.
RBNZ still talking about tweaking - Not doing even though know that in current situation tweaking will not help but need real action and that to ASAP.
Officialy median price in Auckland 1.2 mIllion. Is it not funny and exposes like of Jacinda Arden, who earlier was shouting from rooftop to get power when median house price was appox $800000 and today she justifies 1.2Million - How thick skin are these people.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/451435/house-sales-drop-in-lockdown…
It's like Jacinda, Grant and the RBNZ bozos saw Bitconnect and decided that was the perfect model for an economy.
Well done interest.co.nz on your accurate and insightful reporting, compared to Stuff news which seem to have just taken the REINZ press statement and reprinted it, as there was no reference to prices going backwards in 6 regions.
With global supply chains not recovering for the foreseeable future, there will be a huge supply glut when it comes to raw materials and building supplies. This will naturally flow into the costs of purchasing a new build.
I think we must all accept the fact that the current housing prices will become the new norm. Just like how 10 years ago, the record housing prices at that point in time, became the new norm.
I think you need to look up the definition of “glut”.
Interest rates are increasing so market will flatten.
looking at the REINZ graphs above - every region except for Canterbury, Auckland, waikato and Manawatu all peaked back in the first qtr (ie Jan -Mar). A number have fallen ie Gisborne and Marlborough - but the rest of the regions particularly Wellington and Bay of Plenty have flatlined. Median Prices have been bouncing around in a 20K range for the last 6 months - which is strange given both regions have "low stocks". It however is likely that despite limited stock buyers in these regions have reached maximum borrowing power.
Was just looking at Malbourough - its already close to a 20% drop from peak which would make one nervous if you purchased as a FHB mid-year and find that you need to move!
If you look at Malborough, July median $705K, now $585K.
Those who purchased at 20% deposit are already very close to negative equity - let alone that who were allowed to buy below 20% LVR. And the market hasn't even slowed down to any real extent!
Obviously just a single data set but it shows how quickly people can/could get into difficulty if they need to sell for work or personal reasons (or the bank gets nervous).
Problem is that the median prices are probably derived from small sample sizes. You really need to know the sales volume, price variance and mean price to give it any perspective.
Or you could look at the HPI graph for Marlborough and realise what a bad conclusion that is. HPI peaked at about 3380, and is now at about 3350, it hasn't dropped anything like 20%, more like 2%
Market on fire at Ray White Manukau online auctions today - first 14 sold under the hammer so far and looks like prices have surged around 10% higher during the lockdown - watch the live action here https://rwmanukau.co.nz/watch-our-auctions-live?utm_campaign=watch-our-…
No thanks - auctions are a drag
People never behave more irrationally than when they are under stress.
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