Average dwelling values are starting to decline in many parts of New Zealand, according to CoreLogic's House Price Index.
The property data company says average values throughout the country over the three months to the end of April were 0.8% lower than they were over the three months to March.
Around the main centres they were lower in April compared to March in Auckland -1.6%, Tauranga -0.3%, Wellington Region -1.5% and Dunedin -0.7%.
Christchurch was the only main centre to show an increase, with April's average value up 0.5% compared to March.
CoreLogic's House Price Index measures average values on a rolling three month average basis, so perhaps more importantly, the Index showed that property values in April were lower than they were three months ago in many places.
That includes parts of Auckland but especially on the North Shore, Hamilton, rural Waikato where values were down 10.1%, Hastings, Whanganui, Palmerston North, most of the Wellington region and most of Dunedin (see the table below for the full regional results).
CoreLogic NZ Head of Research Nick Goodall said affordability was a key constraint on the market with rising interest rates and tighter credit affecting borrowers.
"Wellington and Dunedin had experienced their biggest declines in average values since the Global Financial Crisis and Manawatu/Whanganui and Hawke's Bay also appeared to be particularly weak," he said.
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| CoreLogic House Price Index | |||
| April 2022 | |||
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 3 month change % | 12 month change% |
| Far North | $707,458 | 5.7% | 26.2% |
| Whangarei | $840,377 | 1.4% | 18.6% |
| Kaipara | $915,479 | 2.5% | 31.3% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,419,357 | 1.9% | 24.2% |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | $1,334,389 | -0.4% | 20.1% |
| Rodney - North | $1,493,969 | 3.7% | 27.3% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,665,645 | -0.3% | 17.3% |
| North Shore - Coastal | $1,904,793 | -0.2% | 17.6% |
| North Shore - North Harbour | $1,595,902 | 0.2% | 19.1% |
| North Shore - Onewa | $1,348,442 | -2.0% | 14.5% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $1,203,069 | 3.4% | 19.9% |
| Auckland - City | $1,720,547 | 1.0% | 17.4% |
| Auckland City - Central | $1,452,265 | 3.2% | 16.8% |
| Auckland City - Islands | $1,866,064 | 7.8% | 36.8% |
| Auckland City - South | $1,554,576 | 0.1% | 16.3% |
| Auckland_City - East | $2,146,292 | -0.7% | 16.6% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,349,433 | 1.9% | 22.7% |
| Manukau - Central | $1,054,034 | -0.7% | 21.7% |
| Manukau - East | $1,668,145 | 0.8% | 17.4% |
| Manukau - North West | $1,173,903 | 3.6% | 24.3% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $1,075,770 | 3.5% | 25.5% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $1,052,232 | 2.4% | 30.3% |
| Thames Coromandel | $1,169,543 | 3.0% | 19.3% |
| Hauraki | $682,728 | 0.6% | 36.7% |
| Waikato | $744,168 | -10.1% | 20.0% |
| Matamata Piako | $726,731 | 2.8% | 29.2% |
| Hamilton | $891,536 | -1.9% | 17.4% |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | $829,120 | -2.8% | 18.4% |
| Hamilton - North East | $1,103,730 | -2.0% | 18.4% |
| Hamilton - South East | $813,664 | -2.2% | 18.0% |
| Hamilton - South West | $798,818 | 0.0% | 14.6% |
| Waipa | $914,148 | 0.4% | 22.1% |
| Otorohanga | |||
| South Waikato | $475,765 | 2.5% | 23.4% |
| Waitomo | $398,242 | 9.2% | 34.2% |
| Taupo | $897,922 | 7.6% | 29.0% |
| Western BOP | $1,072,447 | 7.4% | 29.6% |
| Tauranga | $1,181,973 | 1.3% | 28.3% |
| Rotorua | $729,693 | 2.1% | 14.3% |
| Whakatane | $787,185 | 9.4% | 19.7% |
| Kawerau | $436,565 | 7.5% | 16.5% |
| Opotiki | $543,442 | 6.0% | 23.8% |
| Gisborne | $667,215 | 3.8% | 15.2% |
| Wairoa | $406,110 | -8.6% | 16.0% |
| Hastings | $881,628 | -1.9% | 17.9% |
| Napier | $894,389 | 0.6% | 12.8% |
| Central Hawkes Bay | $662,874 | 4.7% | 31.0% |
| New Plymouth | $746,540 | 4.8% | 21.1% |
| Stratford | $511,227 | 7.6% | 20.7% |
| South Taranaki | $451,414 | 1.0% | 21.4% |
| Ruapehu | $422,466 | 2.5% | 21.8% |
| Whanganui | $559,649 | -0.2% | 15.4% |
| Rangitikei | $511,849 | 1.1% | 25.6% |
| Manawatu | $669,980 | -0.6% | 17.7% |
| Palmerston North | $737,034 | -2.3% | 11.8% |
| Tararua | $473,640 | 1.4% | 20.8% |
| Horowhenua | $645,617 | -2.8% | 15.1% |
| Kapiti Coast | $973,029 | -2.1% | 10.3% |
| Porirua | $1,002,483 | -0.9% | 13.9% |
| Upper Hutt | $907,199 | -5.4% | 10.9% |
| Hutt | $955,401 | -3.9% | 11.5% |
| Wellington City | $1,263,290 | -0.8% | 16.3% |
| Wellington - Central & South | $1,196,358 | 0.8% | 12.1% |
| Wellington - East | $1,400,312 | 0.1% | 22.2% |
| Wellington - North | $1,193,366 | -2.3% | 18.8% |
| Wellington - West | $1,451,597 | -2.2% | 15.9% |
| Masterton | $690,898 | 2.2% | 19.4% |
| Carterton | $748,827 | 3.2% | 15.2% |
| South Wairarapa | $911,199 | 1.9% | 20.1% |
| Tasman | $871,023 | 1.6% | 16.7% |
| Nelson | $864,872 | 0.2% | 15.0% |
| Marlborough | $747,736 | 2.5% | 10.3% |
| Kaikoura | |||
| Buller | $286,508 | -6.0% | 15.7% |
| Grey | $339,884 | 1.2% | 25.1% |
| Westland | $359,608 | -0.1% | 11.8% |
| Hurunui | $573,539 | 1.5% | 19.6% |
| Waimakariri | $683,400 | 1.2% | 28.0% |
| Christchurch | $761,356 | 1.4% | 28.0% |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | $805,286 | 1.6% | 24.8% |
| Christchurch - Central & North | $875,250 | 1.3% | 26.8% |
| Christchurch - East | $577,967 | 0.3% | 26.1% |
| Christchurch - Hills | $1,026,754 | 1.8% | 27.0% |
| Christchurch - Southwest | $739,056 | 1.6% | 31.0% |
| Selwyn | $876,862 | 3.3% | 36.0% |
| Ashburton | $515,866 | 1.9% | 20.3% |
| Timaru | $505,581 | 2.2% | 15.7% |
| MacKenzie | $666,195 | -3.2% | 6.3% |
| Waimate | $410,523 | 2.3% | 24.0% |
| Waitaki | $489,476 | 2.1% | 18.9% |
| Central Otago | $763,313 | 1.1% | 17.5% |
| Queenstown Lakes | $1,709,905 | 10.2% | 32.2% |
| Dunedin | $694,223 | -2.9% | 9.2% |
| Dunedin - Central & North | $712,182 | -2.5% | 7.9% |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | $682,095 | 4.0% | 16.8% |
| Dunedin - South | $655,947 | -5.2% | 8.3% |
| Dunedin - Taieri | $719,965 | -3.6% | 9.7% |
| Clutha | $410,491 | 1.6% | 24.4% |
| Southland | $483,603 | 3.2% | 24.3% |
| Gore | $380,457 | 0.2% | 11.1% |
| Invercargill | $479,881 | 1.0% | 12.7% |
| Auckland Region | $1,495,377 | 1.40% | 19.8% |
| Main Urban Areas | $1,169,800 | 0.10% | 18.1% |
| Wellington Region | $1,111,306 | -2.00% | 14.4% |
| Total NZ | $1,035,216 | 0.70% | 18.8% |
66 Comments
Greg , this is a fantastic story ... why the image of a house with omnibus black-grey clouds behind it ... let the sun shine in ... the bust of the ponzi housing bubble is in .. Joy , my man , JOY !!!! ..
... houses are a " consumption item " ... somewhere for friends/lovers/colleagues/families to hang out : to share & enjoy ...
Where did we go so wrong that they became an item of speculation .. a get rich quick scheme .. a means to pretend we're more special , more important than those who can't afford one ... Just saying !
Where did we go so wrong that they became an item of speculation
I highly recommend reading "A Short History of Financial Euphoria" by John Kenneth Galbraith. Get your hands on it however you can. Go to the library, or pay the $7 or whatever it costs to download the ebook version online. Published in 1994, it's a brilliant read (and a manageable one at only ~110 pages), but it illustrates perfectly where we've gone wrong.
Spoiler alert: it's the same place we've gone wrong hundreds of times throughout history before, and will do so hundreds of times more. It's part of the human condition, and humans beings are terrible at learning the lessaons of history.
.. truth be told , I have read that ... a big fan of Galbraith ....
Me too. He describes quite well in the same book why deflation is the much bigger threat, despite all the talk of CPI.
I have a copy of his novel " the Tenured Professor " , best $ 2 I ever spent ... gets read every second year ....
Doubting Greg's Motive ?
... why the image of a house with omnibus black-grey clouds behind it ..
Weather gets rough before the storm and heavy storm will follow the black-grey clouds :)
Where did we go so wrong
A market economy that fosters competition?
It's hard because everyone gets to live better than Renaissance era royalty, but are trapped on a hedonic treadmill still.
You sure this isn't just DGM literature Gummy? Has Granny Herald reviewed it!
GBH,
I have only lived here since 2003, but I very quickly became aware of NZ's fascination with property and general dislike of the stockmarket. The house we bought needed to be upgraded and most of the tradies I spoke to either had or intended acquiring a rental property. In Scotland, I knew hardly anyone who had a rental property.
I remember being astonished at the first dinner party we were invited to when the '87 stockmarket crash was brought up. In the UK, it had been almost a 7 day wonder and very quickly forgotten. Here, it must have put virtually a whole generation off the stockmarket, though that is finally beginning to change.
Didn't this happen several months ago? Wellington and Auckland already down 7.8% from November.
My old neighbour just sold her property in Wellies. RV = $2.1M. She wanted $2.7M. It just sold for $1.6M
Don’t doubt you at all. Heard of some insane drops going on, panic starting to set in. Especially in lower hutt.
It's not the drops that are insane ... it's the rises that were insane . ..
... we're a long way to go to reach fair value ... 3-4 × average household income ... that's the long term average... not prices doubling every 7 years ... 3-4 times ...
This was Seatoun
Indeed. An interesting place to be where RVs are so high vs actual clearing prices.
House prices falls recorded are small compared with the increases registered over the past decade (or longer). That's despite the market now being 7 months into the downturn - and with omicron and a major war abroad.
When the next housing market upswing hits, the DGM still won't own houses - and they'll be none the wiser. Too much money wasted on popcorn and so forth - as they freely admit here.
Property owners/investors who manage their affairs prudently remain unphased. They know all about the security and wealth that property generates over generations.
Make your choice - property or popcorn. But please don't come here moaning and whinging if you get it wrong.
TTP
Is Guy your bro?
Hi Tim
I think you’ll find that the majority of DGM on here are actually home owners. Ironic huh!
So upswing or down swing we are all in the same boat. Some people are simply morally better, and others look like Shrek. If I were TTP I’d consider investing some of those sweet capital gains into plastic surgery… and a decent suit guy. Hook yourself up with something that fits.
Trying to help you out mate. Cheers.Tom
Hi Tom Jones,
Thanks for your gesture of help.
Tell me, what are you going to do for a face when the monkey wants his ar_e back?
TTP
💩🤡
Believe it or not the DGM actually provides the right balance and contributes positively towards the property boom. Imagine no one listens to the DGM and decides to buy their own home, the demand for rental properties would be greatly reduced.
There are good news and bad news out there everyday and people make their own choices and that creates a functional market.
"Too much money wasted on popcorn and so forth.."
lol, very witty =)
What is a DGM
DGMs are those with Delightfully Good Morals - people that want to see housing more affordable for future generations.
They have been given the label of Doom and Gloom Merchants by VCMs - Vested Commission Men/Vested Confidence Muppets who only think about themselves, their clip of the ticket, and keeping the property ponzi going to maintain their paper wealth.
The VCM is in denial of the bubble they have created and the crippling debt the youngest generation of home owners is now under to have some of the poorest quality housing in the world, at the highest price.
I thought DGM were Debt Grafting Middlemen. Aka the banks risk proxy....cos it the bankers that are making the real loot, risk free.
Digitally Generated Morons .... the original name for " Twitter " when it was first invented ....
Doom Gloom Merchant..
Thanks, have corrected.
In other words, people who critique the dubious morality of those extracting wealth from younger generations through regulatory capture and welfarism for investment property.
Keen to hear your opinion of me and if I’m a DGM. I read lots and have come to conclusion house prices will plummet and stay down for quite some years. Im early thirties, $800k mortgage, high income and want prices to come down so my son (1year old) may be able to buy a house one day but also still be able to afford to blow $ on stupid things and make all the mistakes I made as well. Am I a DGM? I feel like a realist that knows how to use a lending calculator and yea that interest rate changes things. A lot. Like I mean an insane amount.
Nah, you sound like a normal kiwi interested in family vs. exploiting his fellow man.
Really ? According to many on here just owning your own home is exploiting his fellow man. You have to be waiting with all the rest for the 50% price fall.
You sound like me. 33, bought my first home in feb last year and have a mortgage around late $800k in Auckland. First baby on the way and hoping she doesn’t have to put up with the insanity we have just trying to buy a modest home in an average suburb.
Unfortunately we timed it poorly. When the market started running away we didn’t buy for some time because “it’s a bubble” and surely the market couldn’t be irrational forever. But then it kept going. And going. And then the PM said that home owners expect prices to increase (implicitly: “and the state will make it so!”) and at that point it truly felt like if we didn’t throw everything at getting a house, we’d never have the opportunity again.
The only good thing we did was break our 2.25% one year rate in October last year for a 3.49% rate until late 2024. Will see what happens then.
The housing market must fall. Just hope it doesn’t take my young family with it.
Commit every spare dollar you can until 2024, hit the premium as much as humanly possible and you’ll be fine. That is, every spare dollar after you care for your child. Interest rates might very well be on the way back down by then as well. Ebbs and flows.
SugarforthePill,
I have a great deal of sympathy for you and others in your position. I am of the generation who lived through eye-watering interest rates(in the UK) and survived, but a huge difference was that most of us did not have enormous mortgages to service. it simply was not possible to borrow the multiples of income that is the norm now and of course, property prices were much more realistic.
The obsession with property in NZ is a form of madness. Many of them are not even decently built.
Doesn’t quite make sense because another way to think about this, if the market crashes to a point and you lose everything not only your whole family suffers straight away, no house, no family trips, no sports, games no quality time….etc. All of the above so they can afford to buy their own home when they grow up?!
OR your house appreciates in value and you provide the children with a home and good education and maybe leave a legacy so they can do well in their own way in the future?
People sure think differently.
Ever increasing house prices are not sustainable. We have to find a way to live, and live well without relying on ever increasing house prices, otherwise we are lost.
... to extrapolate that point further ... we need to learn to live better by sustainably using less , less drawn down of energy & resources generally ... less speculation on a basic necessity of life : a home ! ... ( PDK would be proud ... see , I was listening ! ) ...
Yea 100%. The housing market in NZ has been an unethical investment for a while now. Those in boats encouraging the next generation to follow the tide out…
Unethical, but cheerled by our media, politicians, lords of the land and banks.
The rot goes deep.
So you want a society where children born into wealth are the only ones who can afford a home? You’re right, people sure do think differently?! A crash needs to happen. Yes there will be pain but a far better option than the current future our children face should the status quo continue.
Unfortunately we were already there. What you’ve described is the exact situation of thousands of hard working double income kiwi left behind by ever increasing house prices. Nothing good comes from the rise and fall of a housing bubble, either side.
I would like to see affordable housing in New Zealand, not to catch anybody out, but so that quality family life you’ve described, sports, time, holidays, is available to everyone.
Whether the house is worth $100k or $5m my son won’t be getting a dime from me. He will however have the benefit of a Dad teaching him about the world for 20yrs which I never had. Obviously I don’t want to loose my house but if it dropped from $1.8m to $600k and in 15 years was worth $1m, I couldn’t care less, might even be able to upgrade.
Its not that black and white. If the house prices crash it doesn't matter as long as you keep your job. If you were happy to pay the current price then nothing has really changed. You just keep on paying the mortgage and the house will have doubled in price in 10 to 15 years anyway. If you were smart enough to get into a house at the present time your not stupid enough to try and sell it and do what ? rent again ?
Is that you, Ashley?
Clutch those straws TTP, Clutch them HARD!
TTP,
"unphased". Interesting new word. The old version is still unfazed
"property or popcorn" If I were marking this, I would write-in red ink of course- Superficial analysis, must try harder..
"Average housing values starting to decline as we head towards winter"
This should be the beginning of looooong winter. How many average FHB can afford to borrow $850000 and pay a mortgage of appox $1150.00 Per week Plus Rates and insurance will be appox $1250.00 per week compare to earlier where if one borrowed $850000 will be appox $725 per week and with rates/insurance appox $825.00.
If an average couple can pay $800 or on even side $900 per week, can borrow between $575000 to $650000 and what can one buy in that price range, even with 20% deposit.
So the only way is downwards unless interest rates fall to last year level - Cheap and easy money.
Yeah its down 0.3% in Tauranga, time to panic for sure. At this rate one months worth of gains next year will wipe out all the loses. The problem seems to be the asking prices not the actual sale. Finally something sold on my watchlist it was offers over $1.050 and it sold for $1.018. It was "Worth" in the mid $900's the RV was $940.
Check out this little graph: House prices over 40 years
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ugn6mu/oc_house_price…
Wooo thanks. Cool visualization. Bubble what bubble....
Yaaaaa! NZ is number 1. Oh wait….
Over 500% increase in real terms in 40 years... When I'm 82 my house will be worth $5m in 2022 dollars. Yippee!
Interesting stats, especially the smaller towns up +30%
Go Turangi......
Glad I'm out at the moment. With inflation surging as Reserve Banks fall far short of moderating inflation it seems inevitable the rate rises will be brutal on the underlying asset value given the extreme leverage deployed.
Yes. Unleverage or unencumbered by the noose of debt. The new happy place.
Renting is debt, you just don't know it. You are either mentally switched to renting or your switched to owning. One side just cannot figure out the mentality of the other side. Way back we rented for a few years but then you progress onto buying a house, its evolution in thinking, you just move on the second you are financially able to.
No surprise. The soft landing hahahah. The next quarter will be far far worse. Hearing big discounts on ask already for the safety of parachute. As more lower price for a sale it becomes a trend that valuations and thus banks clue into. Just like on the way up....but in reverse.
Specarus is now entered free fall...
Lies and statistics... can somebody please explain why the core logic data doesn't correlate to anything else on this website . Even the barfoot numbers from today point to a 10% drop in Auckland and larger decreases in Wellington and elsewhere. And, what is the disparity between property "value" and actual sale.
I’m assuming Core’s method of collecting values/sale prices might have a time lag. But tbh could also just be sample variability.
Notice the column headings: 3 month/12 month change. Their stats are lagging.
Lagged big time. Each "month" is actually three months average and is council sales, so most sales will be from the earlier 2 months. REINZ data is just one month of conditional sales from agents (for main areas - some smaller areas use 2-3 month). It will take 6 weeks for those sales to appear in the council sales.
yes you are looking at what happened in feb..... motivated vendor present all offers...... forget the past highs they no longer have any relevance to achievable sales... the great houses will now come off the market leaving the three Ds and is going to be quite a lot of de bank
The areas that had the largest percentage gains will face the biggest decrease
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