By Amanda Morrall (email)
Flashback: It's 1986. I have just acquired a not too shabby used Ford Pinto for the rock bottom price of CND$100.
As a 16-year-old no longer at the mercy of the "loser cruiser", I am naturally elated. In my state of teenage euphoria, I splurge on a tape-deck (no not an eight-track) that cost more than the car.
So what if the car is second cousin to the infamous blow-up version of the Pinto and that my car is the colour of dog poo. It's freedom.
My jubilance was further buoyed by world oil prices crashing to US$30 a barrel and in oil-gushing Alberta where I hail from, I'm blissfully drafting off the commodity bust paying peanuts for petrol. Somewhere around the 70 cent a litre mark, possibly less.
Fast forward to 2008: Christchurch, New Zealand. I have the misfortune of having accidentally on purpose purchased at Turner's action one of the most offensive petrol sucking beasts on the market: A stinking lemon of a Subaru Legacy (turbo) whose operating costs make taxiing around town seem cheap by comparison.
Little did I know at the time it was one of the most highly desired car by thieves and as such warranted one of the highest insurance premiums. The only outfit that would take me on as a customer was the National Automobile Club, itself an over-priced haven for high risk clientele.
Like many other New Zealanders (even those blessed with more fuel efficient cars than myself) I was back on the bus and put the gas guzzling monster up on Trade-Me.
Christchurch Press motoring editor Dave Moore tells me I reached the "tipping-point," the upper limit of my budget and or tolerance for sky high petrol prices.
The point of consumer combustion mid 2008 bears close semblance to the present with 91-octane running into the NZ$2.20 a litre red-zone.
Moore, who wrote about tipping-point effects this past February in one of his drivetalk blogs, remarked:
Lower road toll
"Sufficient numbers decided it just wasn't worth using the car for short errands to the extent that there was less traffic on the road. Less enough that, during July and August, there was a corresponding dip in the road toll. This meant that, despite the rest of that year showing our typical treading-water numbers, the fuel watershed or tipping point gave 2008 a record low toll that we've failed to emulate ever since.'' Until now.
As reported in the New Zealand Herald, road tolls are now at 30 year lows and with the reduced number of drivers, a corresponding reduction in road deaths, also at 30 year lows.
So far this year, 36% fewer people have died (112 versus 175 this time last year) on New Zealand road.
Safety, transportation and auto industry officials relate this rare bit of good news to steep fuel prices, self-correcting driver behaviour as well as better policing of the roads.
Moore doesn't buy it. He believes the dramatic reduction in road deaths and tolls boils down to one thing only: fuel shock.
"The thing there is has been no strategy that has brought down the fatality rate in terms of policing, the only thing you can attribute it to is fuel prices.''
Cars getting smaller
He says the run-up in petrol prices is also behind the growing trend among cost conscience consumers toward smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. He says the scale of the car conversion hit home on a trip to Canada (the motherland of super-sized automobiles) a few years back when he observed a predominance of much smaller vehicles.
"The same is happening now in New Zealand.''
Moore, who drives one of the most fuel efficient cars on the market (a Honda Jazz) says he welcomes high petrol prices because they're pushing people (himself included) off the road and onto bicycles, footpaths or public transport.
'Rack up petrol prices'
He personally would like to see prices spike even further.
"I say rack it up to NZ$2.50 a litre and spend the difference on public transportation.''
For those willing and able to give up the car in favour of the humble bicycle, the savings are not insignificant.
Take our neon-clad editor Bernard Hickey, who religiously cycles to work at least five day a week and foregoes taxis for off site meetings. He tags his weekly savings at between NZ$30-50 a week, a boon to his budget, beltline and overall outlook (he's not as grumpy as his columns suggest.)
"It's greener, cleaner, faster, cheaper and healthier," chirps Hickey, a self confessed obsessive cycler.
For Government, the financial side-effect of higher petrol prices also has an upside, outside of the costs associated with its fleet.
Road collisions cost big money.
The total social cost of road crashes is estimated to be $3.5 billion a year to health services and the community.
Those drivers who manage to avoid becoming statistics, face ballooning costs as well.
As anyone who has the blessing or curse of owning a car well knows, you pay for the privilege.
Depending on size and cylinder. a new car will cost anywhere between NZ$29,000 and NZ$75,000 to buy.
Three years later, those shining new objects will have depreciated in value anywhere between NZ$12,624 and NZ$30,657, according to estimates by the Automobile Association of NZ.
Annual running costs are also dear.
- $288 a year for registration
- $40-50 for a Warranty of Fitness every six months
- $768-$1,319 for comprehensive insurance cover
- Fuel at $2.10 a litre (assuming 14,000 km) will roughly range between $1,880 and $3,434
Throw in maintenance on top of that and the case for the car (for all its convenience) starts to look grim. Between the fixed costs and running costs, the four-wheel wonder becomes a financial burden to the tune of $7,000 to $14,000. The bigger the car the greater the cost.
Calculate your fuel costs here). Or for a more comprehensive breakdown, visit AA NZ's website and download their running costs report.
Little wonder sales of small and compact cars are a standout in the industry, says Moore.
"The Koreans are making hay on this,'' he adds, pointing out particularly strong sales of Kia Optima and Hyundai i45.
Moore says drivers would want to do themselves and the environment a favour need to let practical reasons, not fashion, dictate car decisions.
Alleviating one's guilt by downsizing the Ford Explorer or the like to a smaller SUV all the while clinging to a second car that sits idle in the garage is another financial gaff, for those looking to economise. The same goes for single driver trips in an seven or eight seater people mover.
"There’s still an awful lot of people driving cars that shouldn’t be, '' laments Moore, who adds that he's been encouraged by a recent movement in Christchurch towards carpooling.
"If people bought a vehicle they need rather than the one they want to be seen in it would be lot easier on peoples' wallets.''
Dave's a smart guy. Thanks to a steer last year in this direction, he has helped to cut my car fuel bill in half. I save my fashion stupidity for my bike. I can't do neon.
Tips – how you use your car does make a difference
- Slow down
As well as increasing accident risks, driving over the speed limit on the open road increases fuel costs by up to 10 percent. If you’re driving fast enough to be fined for speeding then the fuel cost will be significantly more.- Keep your load down
Carrying unnecessary weight in the vehicle increases fuel consumption, by around 2 percent for every 50 kg. So take those golf clubs out of the boot after the game, and remove the roof rack when you’re not using it. The same goes for the bike rack.- Think before you drive
Consider walking, cycling, or taking public transport before getting into your car. If you need to use the car, plan your journey. Picking up groceries and other items on the way home saves taking the car out later.- Avoid short trips
You use 20 percent more fuel driving when your engine is cold.- Drive smoothly
Make sure you accelerate smoothly. Change gear early (but don’t labour the engine). If you drive an automatic, choose ‘economy’ gear switching as this will keep the engine speed down.- Look ahead
Check what’s happening, maintain a safe following distance and you’ll keep at a more constant speed. This uses less fuel than accelerating and braking all the time.- Reduce idling time
If you’re going to be stationary for more than 30 seconds, switch your engine off.- Love your car
A little love goes a long way. Keeping your tyres at the right pressure saves fuel, as does checking your alignment, engine timing, air filter and spark plugs regularly.- Watch your air con
Only use air conditioning when absolutely necessary as it tends to eat fuel, up to 10 percent more in fact. Other features, such as the rear window demist, can also be a drain, so make sure you switch them off when they’ve done their job.
80 Comments
And reduced Government revenue?
Depressing post over at Cycling in Auckland related to this: http://cyclingauckland.co.nz/front/2011/05/aha-moment/
Hey, thanks for the link to that. Surely in breaking that bad cycle, ingenuity, creativity and good sense would steer us towards a more sustainable, less toxic replacement of that revenue. But maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part. Middle path solutions is where we should be looking, instead of squabbling over polar views and dwelling on doomsday scenarios. I'm turning over a new leaf...
Amanda..I think there is a real hole in the market here to think beyond just the Cycle as we know it.......weather conditions are often prohibitive to realistically using it as alternative transport...I mean just look outside....and that is one major sticking point......innovation is where the possibility of attracting an uptake opens the door.
The car !...the comfort.....the privacy...the status...etc etc....are the innovators hurdles to overcome.
is it do-able.....? we'll hell yes.
Christov -
here's a partially-faired recumbent trike:
http://www.goblinmotors.com/html/recumbent_bicycle_and_tricycle.html
here's a fully-faired one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS4qHk60_eQ
and another (no 104 is a Windcheetah - one of the best):
http://www.helsinki.fi/~tlinden/roskilde98.html
Bon pedlatite
A good watch and a look a the cheetah...PDK...but I'm still left thinking devlopment and innovation are, while impressive. still not where it would need to be to gain an interest swing in that direction to any significant levels...in N.Z.
The problem of escaping the convenience of "the car" is where the mental sticking point becomes glaring........in N.Z.
Even if not to the degree or distance ..people here...will still want it to do what a car can do in similar comfort.......
If I was say .investing in Europe or parts of China....I could see possibilities particularly with assistance from product friendly local authorities looking to reduce congestion......
If I was looking to invest in the same development in N.Z. ...I would be highly sceptical at the outset...because of the mindset of Local and Transport authorities..despite what they peddle out from time to time about going cleaner.....not to mention the poor standard of road/or cycleway maintenance I could expect ...from those same bodies.
The convenience of cars is counteracted by a lot of pretty hefty inconveniences, but people tend to ignore or rationalise those away. I haven't had a car for a couple of years now, and getting rid of it removed a huge source of inconvenience and annoyance from my life. There are some disadvantages to being carless, but when all the factors, positive and negative, are factored, I think I'm better off without one. I wouldn't even consider buying another unless I moved to some back-of-beyond place where there's no alternative. Yeah, it's a 3 minute walk to the bus stop, and occasionally I have to wait as much as 10 minutes for a bus, but that's more than compensated for by the lack of time spent driving round in circles looking for a park, and the time that I don't have to spend trekking all the way back to my car when the shopping's done - can just nip to the nearest bus stop. And unlike time spent in a car, time in a bus can be spent doing something productive. On the rare occasions that I need a car, I just hire one or call a cab.
Don't exactly disagree Kakapo.....my point is the convenience is a mental state where car loving isolates would find almost impossible to live without untill they...had...to....at that point necessity becomes the mother of invention and people become more resourceful ...or just curl up and die....
Because I think...the car loving isolates represent the larger demographic....alternatives need to have an attraction factor.......something that at least gets them considering an alternative.......cost....just does not seem to be enough to motivate them in other directions.
Eastern Block Naked News broadcast on public transport only would have some impact in the short term I'm sure......................er.... that's probably not a good example...and I haven't ridden on a bus in ..oh...ahh...jees I don't know... but you get the idea.....
Obviously how viable it is depends on where you live. Being stuck out in some distant suburb with no transport would be inconvenient as hell, but for a lot of people being carless wouldn't be nearly as appalling as they assume it would be, because they take all the inegatives, like parking, for granted as an inevitable part of life, and haven't considered the upside. For instance, it's more than three years since I've been all gassed up and ready to go, but can't because I'm stuck behind some ditherer at a service station who's browsing very slowly through the icecream freezer. I'm naturally very impatient, so I really notice hold-ups and delays, but would assess that I spend a lot less time getting frustrated and tetchy than I did when I was driving.
Day is coming when cars will be more an embarrassment than a status symbol...well certainly the big flash one's with no passengers in em. I laughed aloud when a daycare dad came screeching up in a Hummer at my son's kindie a few years back. Be nice to see Auckland become Amsterdam chique---at least on fine days.
I'll remind you of a true King among men, Wolly.
Sometimes dreams do come true. You just need some sugar in your coffee, honey.
Never ever ruin a good cawfee with that tooth rotting sugar Amanda....you know not what you do!...sorry but I can't waste me alloted megs on utube....
I reckon you aint never ridden no bike out on the highways Amanda.....a tad different to some sheltered urban back streets.....don't try it without a neon jacket....and life insurance!
Actually, I have: 75km to be exact. An MS fundraiser on Alberta highways. I've also ridden stretches of the Hwy #1 main route from Vancouver to Calgary across the country and cycled through backcountry Alberta woods with bears and other man-eating wildlife. Watch the youtube video. Martin Luther King Jr. deserves your attention. Cheer up Wolly. Unplug your computer and go for a walk in the rain.:)
Unless someone buys a EV in the next few years I suspect they will like the SUV they will be a rare breed.
Rural kings, if thats the case then we are indeed in deep poo poo....however I suspect it wont be too hard for farmers to plant their own rapeseed and make their own biodeisel on demand....look on the brightside, no tax...makes me wonder if it actually wouldnt be cost effective today.
regards
Yeah, but some of those taxes go directly to repairing the roads that the vehicles damage.
Bikes are definitely the way to go - the saving in parking hassles is worth it's weight in gold too. See if you can get a ride in a recumbent trike with a fairing, Amanda. That'll rock your socks - an average person can pedal one of then past a competition cyclist.
It's important to remember 'build energy', before writing off ewxisting vehicles, though.Fuel is only past of the equation. It takes most of a fuel-efficient car's life, to make up (it's only saving the 'difference' in fuel consumption, remember) for it replacing a thirsty one, which already exists.
I've got a crawler tractor, which hasn't moved for two years. It's so thirsty, you can see the tank-level go down - but - it was built in 1936, it still does a particular job, and there's no point - ever - replacing it.
Although I guess if you gear a bike down enough, it might pull stumps......
Pinto was sweet on gas and was mostly driven to high school from the burbs in Calgary, when I wasn't riding my bike. When it gave up the ghost, operating only in reverse, I traded up and with another model of Ford, can't remember (getting too old I guess) but was about the same size as a cruise boat. Parallel parking an utter nightmare for me, not so good on gas. Still prefer my bike, surely you No.8 Kiwi's have come up with a version that has an inbuilt umbrella for Auckland weather?
The fact that most NZ roads are bloody dangerous to ride a bike on whether urban or the open highway, is a reason why so few opt to use a bike. If bike riders were taxed!!!!! then you would see a greater effort by govt to encourage people to ride bikes.
If the numbers riding bikes were to increase without the investment in bike only lanes and bike highway offtracks along dangerous stretches of the murderous roads...then you had better expect a bloody sight more to be killed and injured by the idiot drivers in cars and trucks that treat the roads as their private racetrack.
I have yet to read of the road traffic police taking to the bikes to experience the pleasures of riding within a whisker of massive bloody truck and trailer units doing 120ks passing by just inches away....This is an experience all the pollies must have...it should be a compulsory thing for them...a bike ride from Picton to Blenheim....see how many live to tell the tale.
I got heaps of mileage out of this device (see link) with my two kids, and exercise. Back to pre-pregnancy weight in under six months...now the kids prefer biking to school over taking the car. Rain & wind is a bummer though.
I love biking - in fact, I didn't drive a single time for the first 2 years we were in NZ and biked to work and back home every single day, rain, wind or shine (30 minutes each way in Chch). My husband did pretty much the same. But it's a lot more complicated with a family.
That's the bike trailer we've got (a double, fits 2 little ones) http://www.netkidswear.com/papcabbictra.html. But of course, even this nice trailer + a bike seat is not enough for 4, so it required the two of us to bike to daycare then our separate ways to work.
And I assure you that trying to get 4 kids under 5 and us ready early enough in the morning to have time for a much longer trip, carrying all the daycare bags + workbags, pulling all that weight to the daycare to drop off and then biking to work and still managing to get there on time (thankfully there was a shower) is no small feat. Needless to say, we mostly used/use it at the week-end when we can enjoy a leisurely ride...
I would never let my kids ride a bike around Dunedin streets. I have seen too many close calls with adult cyclists. None of my kids' friends ride around here either. Hardly any kids ride to school in my area. The hills are seriously steep and dangerous and most of the roads are narrow. Not to mention our weather, which can go from fine to Southerly gale in minutes. What you propose is just not practical here.
I was saving it rastus but i just gotta drop this in here...hope u like
The General Managers of Tui, DB, Macs,Monteiths & Speights were at a national beer conference. They decide to all go to lunch together and the waitress asks what they want to drink. The General Manager of Tui says without hesitation, "I'll have a Mangatainoka Dark." The General Manager of DB smiles and says, "I'll have a DB Export,brewed from pure mountain water." The General Manager of Macs proudly says, "I'll have a Macs Gold, the King of Beers." The bloke from Monteiths says, "I'll have a Monteiths Pilsner, the cleanest beer on the planet." The General Manager from Speights glances at his lunch mates and says, "I'll have a Diet Coke." The others look at him like he has sprouted a new head. He just shrugs and says, "Well if you poofters aren't drinking beer, then neither will I." Good on ya mate
fmr ca (what kind of car were you, by the way?)
Smile. You sounda bit negative. I've been biking in and around Dunedin, since i got my 3 speed sturmey-archer'ed Raleigh, in '66.
I commuted along Highgate daily to Balmacewen Intermediate, used to ride out to Granny's at Waikouaiti, used it most of the time I was at OBHS, and used to deliver (drugs, for a chemist, to all the little hospitals/rest-homes - imagine that now!) all over town after school.
Commuted daily (I was young, speedyand fit fit fit) from Bondi to Mascot for several years - used to pick a car away ahead in the traffic, and mow it down - you'd always catch up.
Commuted regularly over MtCargill, for the 23 years we lived in Waitati. Used to take 43 minutes, I'm 1.05 now. Still ride into town even now (at 56) from the Kilmog.
Accidents? One. Screaming along George St delivering, the Dean of St Pauls opens his Triumph Pi (from memory) door, and I near-enough took it off. "Are you alll right, my son"? he asked.
First time I knew who my dad was......
Seriously, I tink u suffer from Hughness - I need to have something therefore it will......
T'aint necessarily so.
Bring on higher petrol prices.
if a car costs $10K a year to run and depreciate x 2,232,915 cars (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_New_Zealand) = $22,329,150,000 we spend personally owning and running cars per annum.
Then there's $3,386,000,000 spend each year on maintenace and new roads (http://www.nzta.govt.nz/network/operating/faqs.html), the $3,800,000,000 social costs of accidents (http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/road-accidents/1), the $775,000,000 cost to economy of traffic congestion on Auckland roads (http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/road-accidents/1), cost to health system of people who don't exercise of $500,000,000 (http://www.hsc.org.nz/nutrition.html)...
That's $31 billion dollars each year we spend to have a car dominated culture and transport system.
Health and education spending combined is $26 billion.
All of these statements by the "we-get-crap-weather-in-(Dunedin/Auckland/name your town)-so can't-possibly-ride-a-bike" types are nonsense. Do you think the weather is always tinky-boo in Amsterdam? The same with getting the flat screen TV home.
In our family, we have one car. I take a bike to work. If the weather is crap, I take the car & my wife takes the bus or a taxi later. Or I scrounge a lift or take a taxi myself. Of course we use the car when we collect the TV - but it is no excuse to have multiple cars.
So it is perfectly possible to manage with one small car (ours is a Corolla, & has been all around the country). It is just having the commitment to making it work. Once you have only one small car, you find the ways to make it work.
I realise some people are on lifestyle blocks etc. But that is their choice. Others don't owe them cheap fuel to do that. I agree with Amanda & the $2.50 - I think that is the tipping point that would change behaviours.
Our petrol is one of the cheapest in the OECD. A national scandal. It should be taxed more, which would allow lower tax in other forms. So no overall cost
Cheers to all
Ridden a bike all my life, big cities and small. It ain't that uncomfortable or dangerous (most road fatalities are car drivers). Decent gear, an understanding of how traffic moves (car sense replaces the rode code here) and and hot shower when you get work.
Best way to start and end the day that you can imagine. Far better than spenng half your day sitting in traffic wathching your waiste steadily expand!
Runnng costs on a bike are about $2.00 a week. A no brainer on all accounts.
Rastus: totally agree!
And all these types who say bikes should be taxed. What for? They make virtually no footprint on the road!
Those who demand it say it should be for the cost of their accidents. D'ooohh!! 75% of cyclist accidents are caused by cars. And even if cyclists are at fault - how much damage does the cyclist do to themselves or the motorist? Virtually no chance! Clearly motorists should be paying for the damage they cause to cyclists. Why should cyclists pay $$$ for the damage that vehicles do to them? They already pay in the pain and suffering, of which they are the only recipients.
Cheers
I have to agree with Dave Moore that the reduction in road toll is related to the petrol price increase and nothing to do with the transport agencies. We teach drivers how to operate a vehicle but not how to drive one. I didn't realise how little I knew about driving and car control until I got involved with a Motorsport Club and it wasn't necessarily the high speed stuff that taught me the most. I was lucky enough to be involved with 'Prodrive' when it existed and it had good practical ways to show young drivers things that will help keep them alive on the roads. What a shame the government could not see it. As a number of people have pointed bicycles have their good points, but the things that will stop alot using them are; The danger, time taken to get anywhere, load capacity.
I have to agree, the transport agencies effect on the road toll is probably within the margin of error, as the statistics don't measure deaths/accidents; as the safety features of modern cars allows for a greater probability of survival, even ignoring the improved medical care now available.
.... plus, with our car-mad culture:
What happens when the consequences of peak oil start to hit home?
Our determination to be absolutely reliant on cars will seem crazy - & unsupportable.
I went past a 2ndary school just as it closed the other day. Far more cars than bikes leaving. Either their own car, or Mummy picking them up in the SUV
Cheers
PDK that is commendable and a gutsy effort, but you would not want your kids biking along Highgate these days. Even the Road Patrol crossing guards take their lives in their hands.
Anyway my kids walk to school most days, but if I biked where would I put the golf clubs?
The reality is that the REAL cost of "automobility" has remained constant or even gone down in spite of oil and petrol price rises. This is because incomes have risen, and because cars have become more efficient, broken down less, and retained their reliability for many more years of their life. This, along with the freeing up of car importing, has overwhelmingly benefited lower income earners, who now share in the benefits of "automobility" that used to be the prerogative of the most wealthy.
"Access to jobs" is a huge enhancer of productivity. This is one of the main reasons why the US economy has long been the world's most efficient. Contrast this with Britain's slide down the international productivity rankings, a legacy of decades of "planning" hubris, inflated urban land prices, and low workforce mobility.
Oh god, our help, in ages past,
which is absolutely no precursor
of years to come.
Our shelter from the oily blast
when all the
wells are done.
Unfortunately, dearly beloved, those jobs are reliant on a source of energy. As is the build of those new cars. And those flat-screens. And everything else.
You should have listened to Kathryn Ryan putting Fatih Birol on the spot, PB - he fell into the same trap. "oh, we just projected past trends forward" that you do.
And fell flat on their faces and looked bloody silly - as we'd been pointing out for years!
Alle same your mantra.
US was only workable (not even "efficient") on cheap petrol, $4USD a gallon breaks it....where Europeans can survive $6 and get by.
US economy efficient? nope, I see few signs of that...its simply not investing and falling apart at the seems....any company owner can run a company into the ground by doing the same thing.
Sure cars have got cheaper, the result has been, combined with cheap petrol excessive use, such as commuting. Now its changing when petrol gets expensive and we are talking $150 a tank and 1 1/2 tanks a week joe commuter and his SUV starts to buckle....he's set himself up badly....me, I use public transport and car when I have to and based my home accordingly, Im not hurting too much, its $70 a monh v $36 odd.....
regards
"......joe commuter and his SUV starts to buckle...."
Sure, so he buys a 2001 Honda Civic on Trade Me, problem solved.
There is so much DISCRETIONARY spending on automobility, it is not funny. All the aggregate statistics about cost of running a car, includes V8's, brand new cars depreciation rates, etc. We never see any honest analysis of potential "best case" running costs. Even you admit you own a car, and you pride yourself in being "ready".
Got to agree with you on the Hard Talk Grill Hugh...I put it up as a link post at weeks beginning ...I had hoped Bernard would pick it up and run it as the rest of the gutless media here seem to be a bit gun shy of the smiling assasin.... a good watch exposing Key as Big Chief Sitting Down Talking Bollocks.
Whatever you do Hugh, please don't run over Roger Sutton. He's a "pure soul" too and scorns the automobile, rain or shine, for his bicycle. I believe one of his goals was/is to get more cycle lanes in Chch, as head of CERA he might just push that agenda (when he's not putting out fires) as part of the rebuild. God forbid that city changes for the better...I might have to move back. What's your postal code again?
Hugh - some homework pour vous.
It's as long as a PB rave, but perhaps a tad more coherent:
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/fashion-for-austerity.ht…
bon chance.
ps - more homework:
The most expensive cost of car ownership is depreciation I understand.
Sure up front cost that are visible may appear to have declined...but that's because we conveniently bury/ignore/don't want to measure costs such as
the thousand of hectares of productive land now under tarseal (and more being lost each year)
the cost of the wars in Afganistan/Iraq/Libya/Ivory cost etc etc etc
the pollution spewing forth each morning as we sit in traffic
the fatalities, not to mention billions of $$ in ACC from motoring crashes
the cost to the health sytem as we all get fatter and fatter and fatter
the cost of ........and the list goes on and on and on..
as for bikes cluttering the road......it aint bikes cluttering up the road...it's the other lard arses in their cars that jam the road every day...not the occasional cyclist. ...
Amanda, check out John Forester. Believe it or not, I did not own a car till I was 27, and cycled approx. 10,000 km per year. The book "Effective Cycling" by John Forester was like my cycling bible. It certainly changed my ingrained-from-childhood attitudes to road use.
Forester is now 80 years old and still riding. (He has clocked up hundreds of thousands of kms). Incidentally, he is one of the most advanced thinkers in the world on urban economics too, he could have authored books on that subject if he chose to.
Tom Rand’s "Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit", points to numerous alternatives, and suggests that oil is almost fully replaceable over the next few decades and that if we focus as hard on this as we did moon landings and Manhattan projects, we can beat "peak oil". While oil scarcity drives investment in lower and lower yielding oil fields, oil prices also drive investment in oil-replacement technologies. The entire goal of investment in innovation is wealth, and wealth likes to overachieve. So, when green solutions reach critical mass, stand back.
The ‘rebound effect’ is an economics term that refers to a behavioral response to the introduction of a technology or a measure intended to reduce resource use that instead results in much greater utilisation of the new technology than what was the practical maximum utilisation of the old. When applied to incremental technologies such as a new generation of lightbulbs or a slightly more efficient engine, the effect causes incremental consumption as a result of the cheaper resource.
Most engine efficiencies designed for our automotive fleet during the past few decades have been lost to supplying heavier and faster vehicles, yielding very little in terms of net fuel savings for the average vehicle mile. But even this long-term rebound effect is a simple accumulation of many incremental steps for one technology, the internal combustion engine. What about a bigger shift such as the shift from whale oil lamps to the electric light bulb? What would a major rebound like that look like, in automobility?
Because fossil fuels extracted from the earth are in limited supply and becoming increasingly inaccessible, their price can only trend up. Because we are just beginning to innovate alternate sources of power, their prices can only go down. Alternative vehicles will compete among themselves to become far better than the best current oil-powered vehicle. The rapid and massive dedication of capital by some of the world’s most successful investors in the design and power of alternative vehicles cannot be ignored.
The impact of this tipping point will be a flood of new technology, and this cheaper, cleaner, sexier automobility will mean more congestion, more infrastructure demand, and less funding from easily-collected liquid fuel taxes. Greening our fleet will considerably exacerbate our current funding and congestion problems – problems that will oblige us to find a new road funding model.
The kind of thinking that constrains peak oil projections to reductions in vehicle miles traveled, a loss of infrastructure funding and a threat to automobility; is called hyper-linear thinking. Systems (and automobility is an example of a complex system) may be predicted for only short periods of time or over constrained geographies using linear thinking.
Tom Rand is living in kookoo land, his visions are great except they are just that....possibly drug induced who knows. He cant see the scale and the money needed for that scale and the time needed to do that scale......and the last point is the kicker, no one has started so its going to be very painful....do you realise the cost implications of an emergency project the size of the ramp up of WW2? and thats whats needed/ What that does to the consumer economy? actually its simple, I will answer it for you, there isnt one....but we are talking that sort of scale and taht sort of hardship....oh and did I mention we are broke?
Example of how hard renewables is going to be.....I forget the exact numbers but China I think wants 800~900GW....and China wants to be world leaders in renewables....I think the numbers they expected to reach was like 30 or 40GWs....less than 10% even when they intend to drive renewables and be leaders....um...crunch.
"What about a bigger shift such as the shift from whale oil lamps to the electric light bulb? What would a major rebound like that look like, in automobility? "
Do tell...there isnt one. You need an energy source, whales were almost harpooned out of existance, I think the north west pacific was about it and along came oil for kerosene, lucky whales...Today however we use about.....85mbpd of fossil fuel. So this is the target or reaslitically you have to be able to replace about 5mbpd per year from now on....of a an oil field the size of Ghawar every year...only one has ever been found.
Salt water the sahara, the cost implications are mind boggling.....trillions upon trillions and guess what bio-fuel from wood chips has an energy return of about 1.5 to 1 on a good day with the wind behind it.....we need 10:1 minimum for our present society.....so lets cant that silly idea, there isnt the return.
regards
Well said Steven.
PB seems to have some bits right, now. (I seem to remember crossing swords with him, and him coming the Simon bullshit about there being more and more of everything the richer you got.
He's also right that much oil usage is discretionary - but we've always said that. What he misses, is that, discretionary or not, it's part of GDP. So even if you just move to essentials, your precious 'growth' wont grow.
But you nail it re mass, momentum and time. There isn't the lead-time when you're already running full-noise, you have to back off somewhere else to free-up the energy to do the morph.
And even those of us who have walked the talk, will tell you that our solar panels actually took more oil energy to make, than they'll ever return via solar gain. All we're doing, is storing oil in a less guaranteed-to-decay form. As with things like alkathene tube.
Despite his accusation, it's those folk who don't get the exponential function. Malthus was indeed, right.
That was a great interview on The Panel - Mora let him go (4.30 to 4.45), which was commendable. Comes on the heel of Kim Hill (Hansen) Laidlaw (that Ruppert fellow) Nine to Noon (Birol) and now Mora. They're doing well. Watch the Nats close public radio down!!
PDK - I am surprised at you - you state:
''And even those of us who have walked the talk, will tell you that our solar panels actually took more oil energy to make, than they'll ever return via solar gain.''
That is simply nonsense.
http://www.en-genius.net/site/zones/greentechZONE/editorial_opinion/grne_073007
''A study conducted by Siemens Solar in 2000 showed that the energy payback period for their 75 W SP75 monocrystalline panel was about 3.3 years. A 2004 study published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for multicrystalline solar panels with an assumed efficiency of 12% yielded a payback period of a bit over 3.5 years. In both cases, the energy required for refining and processing the silicon accounted for about ⅔ of the embedded energy in a solar panel. Since these studies were published, typical efficiencies of silicon PV cells has improved from about 12% to 14% - 16%, with some high-performance products delivering as much as 21%. Between this higher efficiency and the use of thinner cells (less material means less embedded energy), it’s likely that the payback periods for today’s solar panels is 2.5 years or less. Given the 20 - 30-year service life of a typical solar panel, it’s apparent that it will produce much more power than was used to make it'' Or go here: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdfAh - this for starters:
http://www.jeffvail.net/2006/11/energy-payback-from-photovoltaics.html
There's more somewhere. You have to think of batteries, life of, grid-tie tech ditto , although they weren't in my original comment.
It's still the legitimate way to go, in either scenario.
Steven - I think you may be right - but the tech of building a solar focus/steam/turbine/generator is pretty easy stuff. If I set to today, I reckon I'd have something spinning by nightfall.
no - not my head....
Generator? I can wind coils standing on my head. There will be a ton of old alternators, WM motors, old AC motors, dead electric drills - no worries, Mad Max here we come.
Hmmm I know Jeff Vail from the Oildrum where he is often been accused of being anti-all renewables; as I recall some folk have questioned the integrity of his position on this vis fossil fuels etc.
Its worth reading the comments to his piece - there are a fair few folk wanting to punch holes in his logic.
Personally I think or suspect solar panels are too complex a technology for our future simpler lifestyle... Just like CPU cores at 32nanoM....you need a very complex and specialised society to produce them, we wont have that....so i think Solar wont ever be used significantly... Hydro, geothermal, tide and wind are fairly simple to impliment technologies in comparison, I think its way more likely we go to these. Which again cause sissues with availability ie when the tide changes, when the wind doesnt blow....I guess society will adapt to work when there is affordable energy and sista when there isnt.....dont know if that sounds so bad myself.
Yeh.... I live near a stream and can do a watermill....though alternators become interesting to make....
:/
regards
we've got only one car and it generally works well. We pay more to live in a central Akld location, but we save heaps on transport, so the net costs are probably similar or even lower compared to living in a cheaper house way out. So no net cost difference, but a heck of a lot less time commuting!
If it wasn't for the kids I'd be tempted to try no car. But with all our kids' activities at least one car is just unavoidable
I walk and take the bus to work. Some nice fresh air and exercise and the social experience on the bus makes things interesting.
Ivan, the love affair with cars is ending....but its not really a love affair its a drug addiction and the drug is petrol and the dealer is putting up the price......sure some will keep cars no matter what...some ppl love to run their 1950s jowett jupiters, good on them....
But for most ppl having a car is entering the too expensive phase, indeed from my generation the only ones not having cars were the ones unable to pass their test....now when I mingle/chat to 30 somethings Im actually meeting some that have never wanted one and never sat their test and never want to.....I find that interesting, usually its because he/she does not need it and doesnt want the expense....other things are more important.
In terms of petrol price I think $3+ a litre is on the cards inside 2 maybe 3 years unless we collapse in a depression....in which case if you dont have ajob even $1 is too much.....and this is a problem (taken to extreme in America) we have set up our society/economy based on individual, easy and cheap transport, when its no longer cheap our society/economy will not thrive at the very least.....
So enjoy your GTO while you can.....just consider what you will do if petrol is rationed.
regards
Ivan, the love affair with cars is ending....but its not really a love affair its a drug addiction and the drug is petrol and the dealer is putting up the price......sure some will keep cars no matter what...some ppl love to run their 1950s jowett jupiters, good on them....
But for most ppl having a car is entering the too expensive phase, indeed from my generation the only ones not having cars were the ones unable to pass their test....now when I mingle/chat to 30 somethings Im actually meeting some that have never wanted one and never sat their test and never want to.....I find that interesting, usually its because he/she does not need it and doesnt want the expense....other things are more important.
In terms of petrol price I think $3+ a litre is on the cards inside 2 maybe 3 years unless we collapse in a depression....in which case if you dont have ajob even $1 is too much.....and this is a problem (taken to extreme in America) we have set up our society/economy based on individual, easy and cheap transport, when its no longer cheap our society/economy will not thrive at the very least.....
So enjoy your GTO while you can.....just consider what you will do if petrol is rationed.
regards
Ivan
"I love my car, and couldn't imagine not having one".
so?
That's not the point. I'm an old petrol-head myself. Raced and rallied in my time, owned more hybrid (as in: different motor/component) vehicles than standard.
I started with my Ford 10, the F axle of which I chopped in the centre, and swung a la Allard. Hotted up my Wolseley 18, still drive the family 1936 MG SA, had a '63 Glas Royal Goggomobile with a Humber 80 in it, several ground-up specials, typically road-going Formula-Ford types. Still have the International camper with the 6.2 Chevvy diesel we shoehorned into it. Had a series of Hino Contessas which we re-engined (good cars bad engines) typically escort donks, but the ultimate was an Alfa 2 litre TC with twin DCOE45's etc, in a bog-standard, cross-plied Contessa. That scared 'em at the lights.
Been there, enjoyed that - but:
Times are different, the future is a result of what we (me included) have done. I'm comfortable saying 'mea culpa' about that, and attempting to make good. I've apologised to my kids. The good news is that the new way, from a builder-of-machinery perspective, is actually purer, less messy engineering. There's a ton of fun to be had, on much less budget.
And - my recumbent bike, with me aboard, will beat your GTO across the intersection when the lights change. Not down the block, mind you, but across the intersection. (I have a pedal system that applies full torque at TDC). It cost about $30 to make, keeps me fit, gets more looks than any car, and costs nothing to run.
Just remember it's not you created the speed you're proud of. When I see a Beamer moving well, I don't respect the owner, I respect the Beamer engineers. I think it's part of maturing, that realisation.....
I used to think the same way when I was er racing against fancy/expensive cars.... I drive what I built (mini's....datsun 240Z, - [overbored 2.8 block, garrett T3 at 30lbs sq/in...inter-cooling, fuel injection....light weight body shell...150mph in an eye blink], watercooled VW's beetle [1.9litre water cooled transporter engine, uh but "oil cooled" and a KKK, 1303 shell]....as tail happy as you can imagine....but the traffic light traction!......silly days) ..........I didnt pay someone to give me the hottest at no expense, did it myself or at least spec'd it....I found that a lot of fun....though welding it back together when I had an oops wasnt so much fun......
Now it seems to be buy a chip.....somehow it isnt the same......
regards
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