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Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the Kiwi dollar is now depreciating consistently as confidence in commodity currencies wanes.
But first, Wall Street is losing steam today as the US-claimed restart of tariff talks appears to have been an empty boast. The S&P500 started the day positive, but has slipped since and is now down by -0.2%. Benchmark rate curves have turned even more negative.
The influential Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment in the US fell, but by much less than expected in August, with households still upbeat about their labour market despite an escalation in trade tensions. This survey isn't showing the reaction to the trade wars that the other University of Michigan survey does. Not yet anyway.
And the next regional Fed survey of manufacturers, this one by the Richmond Fed, shows 'moderate' conditions in August and an improvement from July. That means their contraction has eased somewhat, but there is no real expansion yet.
And the independent survey of house prices in the US, the Case-Shiller survey, shows that growth continued to decelerate in June, the latest sign that lower mortgage rates are providing little to boost a housing market that has been slowing for the past year.
In China, industrial profits actually rose +2.6% in July compared with the same month a year ago. In June they were -3.1% lower on that same basis. This better July pared back their year-to-date fall to just -1.7%. This was much better than markets were expecting.
China set its exchange rate against the US dollar noticeably lower today. That now puts it at its lowest reference rate since 2008.
And in a new move aimed at reviving their retreating car industry, Beijing has relaxed some key car-buying rules. It part of a set of new stimulus moves.
One of the consequences of the trade war is that the food industry in China can't get soybean or corn oil like it used to, so it is turning to alternatives, and a primary one is palm oil. And that means that the current EU campaign against it is being less effective, allowing Indonesia and Malaysia to easily push back, even ignore the pressure.
The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 1.49%. And most key rate curves are now more inverted. Their 2-10 curve is now negative by -4 bp. Their 1-5 curve is at -37 bps. Their 3m-10yr curve is at -59 bps and all of these are wider negatives than this time yesterday. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 0.90%, down overnight by -3 bps. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.08%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr has firmed by +4 bps to 1.11%.
Gold is still rising, up another US$13 to US$1,542/oz.
US oil prices are up about +US$1 at now just under US$54.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also up to US$59.50.
The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer again, now at 63.7 USc. On the cross rates we have slipped to 94.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also softer at 57.4 euro cents. That pushes the TWI-5 down to 68.9 and its lowest since September 2015.
Bitcoin is now at US$10,177 and that is down -1.7% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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