Net migration gain of 52,722 in year to July

Statistics NZ estimates New Zealand's net migration gain increased by over 8% in the July year when compared with the year to July 2018

11th Sep 19, 12:03pm by David Hargreaves

More than 8% more migrants settled in New Zealand in the year to July when compared with the same period to July 2018, according to Statistics NZ estimates.

Stats NZ estimates that in the year to July 2019 there was a net migration gain of 52,722 compared with 48,709 for the 12 months to July 2018.

Migrant arrivals, at over 149,000, were up 7.7% on the previous 12 months to July, while migrant departures at 96,300, were up 6.9%.

Stats NZ said for migrant arrivals in the July 2019 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group with 35,000 arrivals.

The next largest groups were citizens of: China, with 19,100, India with 12,500, South Africa 9,200, Australia 8,800 and the Philippines 8,100.

For migrant departures in the July 2019 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group with 48,600 departures.

The next largest groups were citizens of: China 7,800, United Kingdom 6,100, Australia 4,300 and India 4,200.

In the July 2019 month Stats NZ estimated that arrivals were 14,600, up 13%, while departurs were up 5% to 8,600.

The net gain was 6,064 compared with 4,870 in July 2018.

Net long term migration

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Source: Statistics NZ

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68 Comments

by theglc | 11th Sep 19, 12:09pm 1568160590

Winston!

by Fritz | 11th Sep 19, 12:18pm 1568161132

Is he still alive?

by NZChinese | 12th Sep 19, 9:21am 1568236878

LOL

by Dgm | 11th Sep 19, 12:19pm 1568161176

Weird to compare july 18 with July 19 yet, as seen these numbers are dropped substantially as months go by..

No mention about the revised Feb 2019 numbers? Any specific reason? Has been revised down by 8,400.. will be revised down even further..

"The first provisional estimate of net migration for the February 2019 year (published in April 2019) was 61,600 (± 1,800). Over the past five months, this figure has been revised down to 53,200 (± 900). "

by Foyle | 11th Sep 19, 12:16pm 1568160992

Labour promised to drop it 20-30000 per year, NZF promised to drop it to 10000 per year, but in the coalition's "year of delivery" we have only about 10% or 5000 a year drop from National's last term average. At this point is anyone surprised by their lack of follow-through?

by Fritz | 11th Sep 19, 12:17pm 1568161048

Failure on immigration, housing and tax.
Wow.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 11th Sep 19, 1:00pm 1568163614

...its so easy to fling around the promises when you're in opposition , with no expectation of becoming a government.. a billion trees , 100 000 houses . . Just pluck nice round figures out of the ether . 10 000 migrants per year , trust us ..

Then one day you wake up and the fairy godfather of politics says its NZ First , and you , Jacinda !

by RickStrauss | 11th Sep 19, 1:48pm 1568166483

In fairness, changing immigration rules is far easier than building 100,000 houses or planting a billion trees. A worthy start might include ensuring that "skilled migration" is actually skilled migration, rather than low wage fodder for hospitality and retail.

by Pragmatist | 11th Sep 19, 12:29pm 1568161780

The Coalitions year of delivery is like a lot of courier deliveries.. on the way but never quite arrive in the scheduled timeframe.

by sharetrader | 11th Sep 19, 12:53pm 1568163183

or like mine you end up chasing after them relentlessly to get them to come,
nice analogy

by Fritz | 11th Sep 19, 2:20pm 1568168412

Labour is a mess. And their handling of this alleged sexual harrassment case is s shambles. From the so called liberal left. Haworth has gone:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12266753

by Foyle | 11th Sep 19, 1:45pm 1568166303

this is actually one area where I am ok with their lack of follow through. We have near record low unemployment and most of the immigrants we are gaining are quite economically valuable. They have had all their child rearing and education paid for by other countries, they tend to be relatively high achievers with good work ethic who will pay a million or more in tax during their working lives, more than covering the cost of extra infrastructure needed, and they bring knowledge of and contacts with their countries of origin to enhance our ability to trade profitably with them in future. Lots of win.

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 2:48pm 1568170132

You are describing an average immigrant. There are those who earn millions manging Fonterra paying oodles of tax and then going back home and then there are cleaners and checkout operators. Why not select the good and reject those who compete with my Kiwi son for jobs?

NZ as had 70 years of very high legal immigration. By now we ought to see evidence of 'our ability to trade profitably'. The opposite has happened with exports falling as a fraction of GDP. Makes no difference whether it is Nationals or Labour we continue to fall behind other OECD countries.

So I don't mind the number nor where immigrants are from but the lack of a population & immigration policy is a major failure of this govt. And its predeccessor. Lets have plenty of 'follow through'. In the absence of a immigration policy lets close our doors because we are beginning to suffer housing and congestion and lack of teachers and doctors.

by Foyle | 11th Sep 19, 3:38pm 1568173095

Exports should fall as a proportion of GDP as population increases - as the size of the internal markets grows. USA has imports/exports of about 26% of GDP, Australia 42%, NZ 52%. We are severely geographically isolated and small so can not trade in high value short supply chain goods that countries in dense population centres can.

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 4:50pm 1568177424

Not doing so well with exports as similar small countries and exports have been declining faster than population growing. Once NZ was joint 1st GDP per capita and now we are about 35th. One long continuous slide. If immigration was a significant factor in making us richer it would be showing by now - we have had 70 years of higher than average legal immigration. Some economists actually think the high rate of immigration is handicapping us. Places like South Korea and Taiwan seem to do OK or at least doing well compared to NZ.

by printer8 | 11th Sep 19, 12:28pm 1568161685

Yet again: continuing high levels of immigration and falling interest rates will provide support for the Auckland property market.
Yes, there are some downside influences - continuing very low yields munting investor interest, and increasing housing supply (but possibly insufficient necessary to meet current levels of immigration).

by Yvil | 11th Sep 19, 2:45pm 1568169946

Indeed, also the government increasing the LVR to 95% for FHB buying KiwiBuild houses in their "reset" to get them into buying a house

by Yvil | 11th Sep 19, 12:33pm 1568161989

- No drop in immigration
- No Kiwibuild
- No CGT
- No billion trees
- No reducing child poverty (actually on the rise)
- Feel free to add to the list

by theglc | 11th Sep 19, 1:10pm 1568164202

- No foreign buyers
- No offsetting losses from rental properties
- No selling out to China
- No denial of housing crisis
- No Simon Bridges
- No Judith Collins

by Boatman | 11th Sep 19, 2:12pm 1568167967

No coherent policies
No order in the COL
No strategy for housing
No ability to prevent Greens ambushing the Government at every turn
No reduction in costs of construction
No clear strategy for school education
No one to take up first year free fees bribe
No real reason for the Auckland fuel levy
No Budget surplus , its all been committed
No improvement in health outcomes , even with budget increases
No commitment to sort out the Financial hub ( Auckland's) shocking road network
Ditto the national road network
No ability to even organize a LABOUR YOUTH piss - up without it degenerating into a weekend of a debauched drunken orgy .......... complete with sexual assaults that have been denied for over a year

by GV 27 | 11th Sep 19, 6:45pm 1568184349

Kind of telling that National has more mistakes on your list than things Labour has actually achieved, isn't it?

by RickStrauss | 11th Sep 19, 1:05pm 1568163902

This is bad performance from the government.

They have no mandate to run overall immigration volume this high. Voters voted for precisely the opposite.

Labour, Winston First etc. need to step up and take responsibility.

by printer8 | 11th Sep 19, 1:30pm 1568165415

Who is Winston?

by Carlos67 | 11th Sep 19, 3:43pm 1568173427

Winston was the guy that fell on his sword a while back but nobody noticed he was gone.

by Noncents | 11th Sep 19, 6:26pm 1568183191

He is the guy holding up the "no" sign when asked about reducing immigration.

by Fritz | 11th Sep 19, 2:14pm 1568168078

Mandate is the key word. On many fronts they are failing to deliver on their mandate.

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 2:55pm 1568170531

ref page 2 https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/b85da0149d/community-perceptions-migran…
""New Zealanders’ are now much more likely to say there should be fewer permanent migrants coming into New Zealand each year. Spontaneously 45% now feel this way - double that in 2015 (22%). When informed of the governments migration target, an even greater proportion of New Zealanders feel fewer migrants should be able to come and live in New Zealand each year (49%). Again, a significant increase from the 31% who felt this way in 2015. ""
Maybe even worse in 2019?

by Ludwig | 11th Sep 19, 3:34pm 1568172841

Voters absolutely "voted for precisely the opposite." Get used to the death of democracy. The Brits voted for Brexit, but the elites/media/politicians view voters as stupid, so their votes can't count and they know far better. This absurd situation is replicated throughout the world and is leading us towards a complete breakdown of confidence in govt. The next stage in this cycle will not be pretty...

by Camel's back | 11th Sep 19, 1:05pm 1568163905

Ridiculous.. I would vote Satan to the beehive if he promised to put a lid on immigration. Oh... thats right i already did.

by xingmowang | 11th Sep 19, 1:09pm 1568164174

Hahahahahaha.

Vote for New Zealand People 's United Party next time folks.

by MissyChung | 11th Sep 19, 1:21pm 1568164870

you mean.....NZ China Communist Party?

by CourtJester | 11th Sep 19, 3:47pm 1568173629

Is that National's new name?

by Glitzy | 11th Sep 19, 1:53pm 1568166829

I'd rather have my balls chewed off by a rabid rat.

by Yvil | 11th Sep 19, 2:48pm 1568170082

Oh, I always thought you were a "her"

by Glitzy | 11th Sep 19, 3:08pm 1568171306

Ever since I was a little girl I dreamed of being a man so a few years ago I started putting two golf balls in my pockets and speaking with a deep voice.

by Voiceofreason | 11th Sep 19, 1:31pm 1568165460

All the people bemoaning immigration not dropping enough will likely change their tune if the Auckland housing market keeps declining. Perhaps the govt is already realising (with the kiwi build failure - fewer buyers than expected) that there isn’t as much of a housing shortage as estimated?

by Advisor | 11th Sep 19, 1:47pm 1568166438

Housing isn't the only problem that can be linked with high immigration. You still need other kinds of public facilities , which at the ever-widening gap between population growth and investment, cannot be filled without our cities taking a breather on migration.

Then there is a lack of incentive for business to innovate and evolve their products and practices due to availability of cheap migrant workers.

The high supply of low-skilled migrant workers keeps a lid on wages in certain industries. Let's face it, our economy is predominantly made up of such low-value industries, so increasing the supply of low to mid skilled workers will have an adverse impact on our socioeconomic wellbeing.

by Voiceofreason | 11th Sep 19, 2:13pm 1568168012

Advisor, is that a problem of "availability of cheap migrant workers", or that employers are able to pay at those low wages? Not sure we should blame the low wage economy on high immigration.

by Dgm | 11th Sep 19, 1:49pm 1568166591

for a start, a number of economist make their assumptions on housing shortage on the 'initial' migration numbers.. but with the new 12/16 reporting concept, these numbers are revised down as people fail the above test..

- Only now the migration numbers for Mar 2018 have been confirmed
- Since we have passed the initial 5 month period of the 12/16 month method, they have just reported on the Feb 2019 numbers which have been revised down by 8400 (-13%) on the initial reported numbers

Yes, migration numbers are still high, but they are well off their highs...

We need tradies to help in the building industry, we lost thousands post GFC, so until we can train enough, we have to import them...

Recent trend clearly show a move from students to workers... and if we correlate that with the volume of CCC's issued recently, proves that the new arrivals are related to the building industry

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 2:58pm 1568170733

Drop immigration and lets say house prices halve; my wife and I would no longer be millionaires. But we would still be in this house and our last kid would leave home and the other three would consider buying instead of renting.
Many property investors and MPs would lose money and I don't care.

by mikekirk29 | 11th Sep 19, 1:54pm 1568166895

No one seems remotely bothered (in Office that is) that NZ is quickly changing its cultural mix and no, the majority were not asked if they wanted this. And at last election the electorate were told immigration would be reduced under this Coalition. Not a peep out of them on the subject since I notice. Chinese influx seems to be increasing in % of total terms also.

by xingmowang | 11th Sep 19, 2:06pm 1568167569

The liberal governments in the five-eye countries have some consensus and have been acting to those consensus:
- multiculturalism is the future and ONLY beneficial to society
- refugees are always welcome
- representations (gender, age, sexual orientation, race, health, religion) are far more important than competency when it comes to leadership
- democracy has only one style -- the western style

by CourtJester | 11th Sep 19, 3:50pm 1568173838

Please tell us more about the non-western style of democracy. Do you mean Russia, Turkey and recently Hungary?

by Property Leader | 11th Sep 19, 9:34pm 1568194465

On the ethnic mix side of things. No I am not a racist. I love diversity. I do note that the number of UK citizens departing seems to be significant and they do not even get a mention in the incoming stats. What with Brixit and so forth. I wonder if they are going to become the new hermit country. Less Brits coming here and more returning! Does anyone know if this is being repeated for them in other countries like Australia or Canada.

by Boatman | 11th Sep 19, 2:02pm 1568167351

Wow now thats a big drop ............ is it for real or are they 'using a new measure " to calculate the numbers ?

I have heard that a short term work visa issued to someone is not counted as an inward migrant anymore ........... but they still need housing , etc

by Kezza R | 11th Sep 19, 2:11pm 1568167918

NZ stock market has droped 1.4% today. Cant see any bad news out there.

by Boatman | 11th Sep 19, 2:16pm 1568168202

@kezza R ............ the stock market is waaaaay overdue for a real correction , I doubt this is it though .

Like Warren Buffet (albeit on a tiny scale ) I am sitting on my hands waiting for this correction , to pick up stocks art a decent price

by Voiceofreason | 11th Sep 19, 2:33pm 1568169238

Yes, from a value investing perspective the whole market is expensive, with ~350% gain since early 2009. The US market is similar. The probability of decent gains after this 10 year bull run is quite low, especially for popular momentum stocks. The likelihood of a substantial drawdown in the near term is fairly high. There's still some value stocks to be found in every market, but they are not easy to find right now. I look for mispriced stocks with a PE of less than 10 and good fundamentals. A large margin of safety, big upside, low downside risk.

by Kezza R | 11th Sep 19, 2:43pm 1568169819

Me to. Getting sick of waiting though...
Lots of people out there saying 'it wont happen' or 'it'll be slow'. I'm the other end of the scale. It'll happen and it'll be fast...

by Yvil | 11th Sep 19, 2:50pm 1568170254

It will happen and when it does, it will be fast but it won't happen for a while yet

by Kezza R | 11th Sep 19, 2:52pm 1568170368

-1.7% today and going down consistantly.

by Pragmatist | 11th Sep 19, 5:00pm 1568178027

annoyed as heck, logged into my account yesterday and went to sell my MCY shares, and forgot my FIN. Looked it up last night, and by the time i got round to trying again today they were down 27c.. will see which way the market moves on open tomorrow and be ready to sell.

by Voiceofreason | 11th Sep 19, 2:52pm 1568170344

I like hearing things like "this is the new normal" and "it won't happen". When a lot of people start saying that, a turn is not so far away.

by Kezza R | 11th Sep 19, 2:53pm 1568170436

When the masses are all in, it's time to get out!

by Voiceofreason | 11th Sep 19, 3:02pm 1568170963

Or if you already have some good compounding stocks bought reasonably, hold them (like Buffett) and take the expected hit, and buy a lot more as they become a buying opportunity! The trouble is, fear takes over and people don't!

by Kezza R | 11th Sep 19, 5:21pm 1568179277

Or sell them now and biy back later at half the price.
2.00% down for the day, that's a kicking. Kiwisaver / pensions accounts will be taking a kicking. More will be moving to low risk.

by Averageman | 11th Sep 19, 3:06pm 1568171171

Labour promised 30,000 or less - Fail. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/10/what-labour-promised.ht…

NZF promised 10,000 - Bigger Fail. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-detail/114288594/the-detail-govern…

Reality check next year - no one will suffer their leftest ineptness in managing everything else with out delivery on this policy. Add in allowing hidden inflation destroying the value of cash in the bank for retirees, picking NZF to go the same way as the Moa/Dodo next election.

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 3:26pm 1568172403

From your link (2017) "" New Zealand's annual net migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures) reached a record 72,400...... Labour would reduce net migration by 20-30,000 people a year, mostly by limiting the number of people granted student and work visas. It says the population is growing too fast for housing, schooling and infrastructure to keep up.

So their promise is 52,399 or less. Just need to get another 323 Kiwis to leave. What is their record at keeping promises?

by Foyle | 11th Sep 19, 3:47pm 1568173645

But it wasn't 72400 was it (due to stats mis-estimation). More like low 60's, and they promised a reduction of 20-30k. So they promised 30-40k. You can argue the desirability of that promise, but not that they have failed to deliver.

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 5:00pm 1568178026

I think we are agreeing. That link says 20-30k drop so promise was between 72k less 20k = 52k or 72k less 30k = 42k. Only needs a very small nudge to hit target. But this is a silly target because no govt can plan for Kiwis returning or Kiwis leaving so it is a target that the Australian govt has more control over than we do.
Where there has been progress (or at least progress in my opinion) is the reduction in granting permanent residency visas. From over 50k to about 34k. But even that target is a bit of a joke - it is the quality of the immigrant that matters to NZ and there i see little change so today being typical I met my Doctor (from Iran or Egypt) who is wonderful and I met his receptionist (from Russia) and I met supermarket checkout operators (Philippines & India) - each adds something to NZ but some are more useful than others, some pay more taxes than others, etc.

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 3:10pm 1568171416

Which is worst the net migration gain of 52,722 or the net emigration of 13,600 New Zealand citizens?

by kiwi_overseas | 11th Sep 19, 3:39pm 1568173187

1) The immigration rate is too high thus depressing gdp/capita growth. It needs to come down to a sustainable level and managed to maximise gdp/capita growth as well as price stability and full employment.

2) The higher than needed immigration rate requires a high amount of spending in infrastructure improvements which requires tax dollars (in Auckland where most immigrants remain there are dis-economies of scale). This again is not productive use of capital when compared to the option of using the capital in value added export businesses.

by Foyle | 11th Sep 19, 3:54pm 1568174090

Is it really too high? Those coming in are predominantly higher than median tax payers who will pay up to a million in taxes during their lives that boosts the NZ average and GDP per capita as we screen out the low skilled under-performers that make up a large proportion of our population. Without those immigrants we would be doing far worse.

by RickStrauss | 11th Sep 19, 4:38pm 1568176703

Three of the top four skilled migrant categories in the recent NZ Initiative report on migration were in retail and hospitality. They're not highly paid. I even know quite a number of such migrants, and quite a few of then are on WFF and/or the accommodation supplement.

by loveyourwork | 11th Sep 19, 6:19pm 1568182786

Wow three of the top four...

by Lapun | 11th Sep 19, 5:04pm 1568178288

Hard to think we could be doing worse. NZ used to be level with USA and ahead of everyone else. Now we match GDP per capita with places like Slovenia, Finland, Poland, etc. Worse and we would be in line with Turkey.

If prolonged very high legal immigration is such a great idea why don't other countries copy us?

by Carlos67 | 11th Sep 19, 3:50pm 1568173815

Looks like I will have to get out and vote next election after all, I mean there is also a vote on Cannabis in 2020 as well so may as well give that the big tick, after all it looks like all our politicians are already smoking tons of the stuff looking at their performance.

by Property Leader | 11th Sep 19, 9:27pm 1568194047

The good thing about this is most arrivals apparently start off as tenants.
I have found migrants are consistantly good people with good tenancy habits. Sure occassionally we need to give them a few pointers about our enviroment like how to look after their rentals in a high rainful country. But nothing major like drug taking, wild parties or other bad habits.
This is not a failure by the government it is business as usual. Surely us landlords have to have something to thank the boys and girls in Wellington for.