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Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of trade progress between the US and China, and on Brexit.
But first, American housing starts fell sharply in September from August and barely above the same month a year ago. Residential building permits fell too on the same basis, but they are still almost +8% higher than a year ago. Markets weren't expecting the sharp pullback from August however.
September American industrial production also fell, and this too was more severe than expected. The two largest retreats were in the oil patch, and for business equipment, both key leading indicators. Capacity utilisation is now at two year lows.
This same trend is reflected in the next regional Fed factory survey in the industrial Pennsylvania region. Current growth has almost stalled there.
Although it slipped back from a very strong August result, the Canadian ADP jobs report has delivered its third rise in a row, up +28,200 in September and more than making up for the decreases in May and June.
In the trade war negotiations, the Chinese now say they and the US are working on the text of a partial trade deal "and the goal is to end the trade war and cancel all additional tariffs". The goal is to wrap up this phase at the next APEC Summit in Chile next month.
In Hong Kong, in addition to banning umbrellas and masks, China has now banned to export of black clothing to Hong Kong. China is no place to be an All Blacks fan.
At the EU summit, the European Union and English negotiators overcame a major hurdle to Britain’s exit from the bloc, reaching agreement on the draft of a new Brexit deal that EU leaders approved. But that now faces a knife-edge vote in the London Parliament. Most analysts say it contains tougher conditions for the UK than the deal the previous English prime minister had negotiated. The bottom line on the Irish border issue is that customs border shifts to the coast and the Belfast province will in time be absorbed by the Irish Republic. Needless to say, this will be contentious in the London Parliament. If there is no Parliamentary approval, there will be an extension to the October 31 deadline.
Equity markets are quiet today, with only minor movements in all the major markets. Yesterday, the ASX200 closed down -0.8% which was one of the largest falls worldwide. The NZX50 was down -0.3%.
In Australia, their biggest bank is struggling with a "technology issue". More than eight million customers are affected be a system flaw that won't let customers or branches transfer money.
The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 1.74%. Their 2-10 curve is positive at +15 bps. Their negative 1-5 curve is back down to just -2 bps. Their 3m-10yr curve has disappeared, now at +1 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +4 bps at 1.10%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.19%. The NZ Govt 10 yr is now at 1.21%, up +2 bps since this time yesterday.
Gold is up again today, up +US$5 overnight to US$1,494/oz.
US oil prices are little-changed again today at just under US$53.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is just on US$59.50.
The Kiwi dollar is stronger by a full +½c today, now at 63.5 USc. On the cross rates we are just under 93 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 57.1 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at just on 68.5.
Bitcoin is firmer at US$8,081 and up +1.4% overnight. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».