The S&P500 drops sharply on China impact; global PMI data sanguine; huge lockdown in China; action against stats fraud; Aussie PMIs contracting; UST 10yr yield at 1.68%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 66.1 USc; TWI-5 = 71.4

The S&P500 drops sharply on China impact; global PMI data sanguine; huge lockdown in China; action against stats fraud; Aussie PMIs contracting; UST 10yr yield at 1.68%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 66.1 USc; TWI-5 = 71.4

Good morning, wherever you are. Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the China public health emergency is having a global economic impact. WDKHLWA.

Equity markets are in full risk-aversion mode today. On Wall Street, the S&P500 was down -0.9% at the end of the week. Overnight European markets were actually very positive with most up more than +1% but that just made back earlier losses so they are flat for the week.

Yesterday, Shanghai equities crashed -2.8% taking the weekly loss to more than -3% and pushing the 2020 levels below where they started. Hong Kong and Tokyo were flat and just on the positive side overnight.

Back in the US, the flash internationally-benchmarked PMIs came in marginally expansionary. And that was the case for both their factory and services sector and both were a pick-up in activity. But the movement is small.

There were small improvements in Europe as well in the same PMIs, but their factory sector is contracting, even if less, while their services sector is expanding.

In Japan, the same PMIs are recording a rebound to start 2020. A good rise for services back to expansion is more than offsetting the contracting factory sector which also improved and is now close to a steady state.

In Canada, retail sales data for November was much better than for October but the rise was pretty much as analysts were expecting. These gains were built on much better car sales, otherwise its not such a pretty picture.

China of course is gripped by the Wuhan coronavirus flu emergency. The large-scale lock-down now affects three core cities and more than 30 mln people. The local response is impressive. But so close to the Spring Festival break, for many it will be a bit like cancelling Christmas would be for us. And the effects are spreading far wider, even if the absolute numbers of people infected seem tiny. There are already major economic consequences and they will grow as fast as the medical emergency. The Chinese food sector is in for an uncertain time as people start stockpiling.

And a recent crackdown on "statistics fraud" has seen more than half of China's 30plus provinces lower their 2018 GDP results. But the same audit saw 17 other provinces get their GDP revised up. And the net effect has been an upward revision.

Both the Australian factory sector and their services sector are contracting now, according to the latest PMI update for January 2020. And the rate of decline is getting steeper even if neither is large yet. Their factory PMI is at 49.1 and their services PMI is contracting faster at 48.9. (A score of 50 is a stall.) This is data released by CBA using the internationally benchmarked Markit series.

The UST 10yr yield is sharply lower again today at 1.68% and that means over the past week it has declined -16 bps. That is its largest weekly drop in more than three months. Their 2-10 curve has narrowed to +20 bps. Their 1-5 curve is holding at +7 bps. And their 3m-10yr curve is sharply flatter at just +20 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -3 bps overnight at 1.16%, an -11 bps fall in a week. The China Govt 10yr is holding at 3.03% overnight but still also an -11 bps weekly fall. And the NZ Govt 10 yr is also unchanged overnight at 1.46% and that is a -9 bps weekly retreat.

Gold is sharply higher today, up +US$10 from yesterday, now at US$1,574/oz and that is a +1% gain in a week.

The Fear & Greed index we follow has moved back close to neutral after a long stint hard over on the 'extreme greed' side. Volatility is low, with the VIX now at just under 15 with a rise for the week. The average for the past year has been 15. Both represent a risk-aversion change for the week.

US oil prices are also sharply lower again, now just under US$54.50/bbl and the Brent benchmark is down too at just under US$60.50/bbl. Both represent falls of more than -US$4/bbl in a week. The US rig count fell this week, and to levels near a three year low.

The Kiwi dollar has settled back a bit overnight and is now at 66.1 USc and broadly similar levels to this time last week. On the cross rates we are more than +½c higher at 96.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also higher for the week at 59.9 euro cents. The net of these shifts leaves our TWI-5 at 71.4 and almost the same level it was this time last week.

Bitcoin is down -1% from where we left it yesterday to US$8,473 and that is a weekly loss of -4.6% from this time last week. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our up-to-date exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.


Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

This China virus. Why are people not screened before getting on planes?

We know what virus is like. M Bovis.

It's too big a risk, screen, vett stop, lock down people from infected hot spots, at least until we get a handle on this.

Temperature screening has only limited value as yet we do not know whether one could carry the virus but not yet be displaying the fever symptom;

The CCP has done the right thing to quarantine those in the center of origin, but we can only wait and see to what degree that stems the flow of new infections.


Screening for temperature should be a usual airport protocols, you know infra red etc,. Like video surveillance, facial recognition - always on.

We should be vetting and standing down at risk travellers. Because, the risk of transmission is high, unknown and only downside.

While in this period of unknown, anything we can do to make it harder, less likely to transfer is of value.

The sit on hands and observe is a bad strategy for here and now.

Since breakfast

Report on one of the USA cases:

China has
1,287 cases.
237 critical.
Panic buying of virus masks
16 cities locked down
16 cities, population 46,000,000.

QC not as we'd be familiar.

Look further in twitter to see in country video of the virus, health hospital conditions. All over social media, images & video.

First Australian case confirmed this afternoon.

Authorities warn it is "highly likely" there will be other cases in Australia and it is still possible more passengers on this man's flight will be diagnosed with coronavirus.

He arrived in Melbourne on January 19 from China and displayed no symptoms on flight to Melbourne, she said.

Minister of Health David Clark says coronavirus is no biggy .. . He says its not terribly contagious..... there'll be a couple of nurses at the airport , and they'll intercept anyone getting off direct from China flights who looks sick ...

.... solved ! .... in the same manner Julie Anne-Genter solved the measles outbreak a year ago ... haaaaaa ....

Bovis job.
If it's not a mess, it will do until the mess gets here.

You can have the virus up to a week before symptoms start to show, airport screening is better at quelling the masses than it is at actually halting transmission.

Those face masks are largely in the same bucket...

... put the face masks in a bucket . .. they are 100 % useless ... you spend good money to look completely stupid and then you - ATISHOOOOOOO - catch the Wu Flu anyway !

Correct GBH, we as healthcare staff just smile about it. It's merely indicating the raise awareness. But man, this airborne not much differ than normal Flu.
It's the second time from China, airborne type, mutated germs more & more lethal this germs mutations & adaptation. The effective vaccine must be developed quickly, and certain habit of unhygienic spiting everywhere must be eradicated. One day in the future though, this super mutated, adapted, polymorphic germs - will win.

... remember though , it's not actually in the viruses best interest to kill us .... it just " lives " to spread and replicate ... it will not win if it kills all its hosts ... it ceases to be , too . .

Kate did you see the rest of the Guardian

UK seeks 2,000 air passengers from Wuhan amid coronavirus fears

UK government officials are systematically working through every passenger who has arrived from Wuhan over the past 14 days – the incubation period for the virus – and checking up on their health.

The complex task involves cooperation between airlines, the Department of Health and the Border Force: and the most recent arrivals will be checked first.

While the government emphasised that the risk to the public was limited Prof Paul Cosford, emeritus medical director at Public Health England (PHE), said it was still “early days” in the course of the virus, and that it is “highly

NZ Government makes no comment on China Virus.

Interesting to see The Provincial Growth Fund is putting $10m plus into Kaikoura.

The spend is:
As part of the Kaikōura Marina Development Programme, the following two projects will receive PGF funding:

A $9.88 million investment to begin the design and build of the Wakatu Quay
$1 million to look into the potential of South Bay Harbour and surrounding areas.

Looks like a shovel ready project has been nicked from NCITR. But be done by the same crew!

Our well drilled response may be under the influence of.

Insider comment on China. China virus.

Theme: Watch the CCP in action.

Hey Kate.

The spread of a deadly new virus is accelerating, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned, after holding a special government meeting on the Lunar New Year public holiday.

The country is facing a "grave situation" Mr Xi told senior officials, according to state television.

Many experts expected the WHO to declare a global health crisis this week, which would see emergency measures put in place. But the organisation said it was “too early” to do so, in a decision that baffled many.

“The criteria for declaring a public health emergency of international concern have been met,” said Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.


Hon David Clark was first elected as the Labour Member of Parliament for Dunedin North in 2011. He came to Parliament via a circuitous route – having run a University of Otago residential College, worked as a Presbyterian Minister, and worked as a Treasury analyst.

One of the key reasons David stood for Parliament was because he was concerned about the growing gap between rich and poor, which he sees as limiting New Zealand’s social and economic potential. Inequality featured strongly in his maiden address to the House of Representatives in 2012. He believes we can, and must, achieve a fairer society where everyone has an opportunity to succeed.

adjective formal
UK /sɜːˈkjuː.ɪ.təs/ US /sɝːˈkjuː.ə.t̬əs/

not straight or direct:
a circuitous route/path
a circuitous (= long and indirect) explanation

A day late and a dollar short.
This is bad administration. Poor governing in action.

Public health staff will begin meeting flights from China from tomorrow, to actively look for signs of the novel coronavirus and provide advice, information and reassurance to passengers.

Health Minister Dr David Clark says the additional measures are being taken following the arrival of the disease in Australia, via flights directly from the city of Wuhan.

Read the full text, comments include; as there have been no cases in NZ, there is nothing to see/worry/have done. This appears as a massive failure to understand how virus work and the concept of pandemic.

Reading the ministers statement you kinda for miss the fact that New Zealand produces some of the finest freshest food in the world, and exports food to all points of the globe.

I understand his wish to reassure the travellers that may have the virus, (putting aside the responsible traveller issue) however there are a couple of other stakeholders he has ignored and forgotten. And a couple of expected action items missing.

Hint, some domestic Japanese food producers record staff temperature as they check to work each day. Noted on attendance records.

Hanging out with the models.
Modeling what's happen so far - explain why Xi is going full court blitz....

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

25 January 2020 - Imperial College London‌
Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
Natsuko Imai, Anne Cori, Ilaria Dorigatti, Marc Baguelin, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Neil M. Ferguson
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UK


Note: This is an extended version of an analysis previously shared with WHO, governments and academic networks between 22/1/20-24/1/20

Summary Report 3
Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan.
We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories.

This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. It is likely, based on the experience of SARS and MERS-CoV, that the number of secondary cases caused by a case of 2019-nCoV is highly variable – with many cases causing no secondary infections, and a few causing many. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China and the extent to which the populations of affected areas have adopted risk-reducing behaviours.

In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China; uncertainties include the severity spectrum of the disease caused by this virus and whether cases with relatively mild symptoms are able to transmit the virus efficiently.

Identification and testing of potential cases need to be as extensive as is permitted by healthcare and diagnostic testing capacity – including the identification, testing and isolation of suspected cases with only mild to moderate disease (e.g. influenza-like illness), when logistically feasible.

Why baffled, who do you think the major donator for WHO? China? or? ..? - We all knew as we speak the CDC already had this bugs sample on it's 6/more story high deep into the ground, analysing, coding it, study, R&D antidote against it (to limit the spread first, before antidote effective development) - In Dunedin, you can approach all those Lab MP via formal means - Nat MP member however, wow different.. nice cars though.

The gold price reacted, presumably in response to the threat and upheavels from Coronavirus. Interestingly enough, the silver price was up nearly 2%. Those who follow PMs will not that this is not too common.

Keep an eye on USDJPY

Why not take advantage of our being an island state.

Why would anyone leave the Democrat utopia of California? "More than 86,000 Californians picked up and moved to Texas in 2018, according to a report by the Texas Realtors’ association.

Texas had the most total inbound moves of any U.S. state but Florida, with 563,945 new residents in the year."

Affordability AND plenty of jobs

The people running the joint from good to bad.
There are learnings for us.
Victor Davis Hanson

Axe grinder detected....

At any given point in time ( 24 / 7 ) there are around a million or more people in the air .. 1 to 1.2 m people flying somewhere .. scattered around the world ...... in planes .. flying domestically and interntionally ..

.... the very idea that we could contain a genuine pandemic is risible : we can't !

But , coronavirus is not the big bad one ... its just a nasty Wu Flu . .. not a scary super bug ...

Gummy re chatting with murray Friday you seen this guy?. Makes for happy post roast Sunday snooze. We have more fun in the happy crowd.

... cool .... I'll get two copies , one for me ... and one to send by sail boat to Greta ... though , I doubt that her Mummy will let her read it ...

Greta is a funny fish, seems you gotta be careful in the photo op dept.
Looks like Greta & Co a little racist.
Read the twitter comments, explained away as optics!


Our PM must say something, & J Shaw & Co.

... whites only , for being a doomer ... wow .. who knew that ...

I'm all for people of any race , color ,creed , sexual disorientation being allowed to be hysterical about climate change . ..

Hope your correct Gummy..but don't think you and Henry are Virologists, so maybe keep the comments to real world data rather than your rants and obvious false news.

"But , coronavirus is not the big bad one ... its just a nasty Wu Flu . .. not a scary super" Gummy prediction you heard it hear first.

Frazz, you never said how many kids you got (nutrition question that was).
Next question, what sort of livestock do you run, do any plant protection work?.

Asking for a friend.

Zero kids H...dont run with livestock...swim with them or eat them, you? I water my plants..and keep them indoors sometimes but cannot afford 24/7 security. How many friends do you have apart from your online pal Gummy?

... growing dope , huh ... now it all makes sense ...

Bugs are always relative, they don't affect peoples from different Nationalities/races on the same result. For many obvious physiological reasons. Fascinating factual.

Chinese leader warns of 'grave' coronavirus crisis as US diplomats prepare to leave Wuhan

Wuhan has a govt/army bio weapons lab, close to reported ground zero.

The 1918 influenza pandemic killed between 3 - 5 % of the worlds population .... but Pacific islands were hit hard , Samoa lost 22 % of their people ... even in NZ , Maori had 8 times the death rate of white kiwis ...

AJ. What do you make of it?.

The middle link.Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. Their simulation showed it could kill 65 million people.

We observe the belief climate change models and claims of "must follow the science", that our leaders talking point style advise.

And yet with a front and centre medical situation, medical situation supported by science and models, our same leaders are eerily quiet, deathly silent.

- not even a fact sheet on hand washing, glove wearing and mask use.
Note to self. Hugs will only make the situation worse!

And yet with a front and centre medical situation, medical situation supported by science and models, our same leaders are eerily quiet, deathly silent.

Because politicians and their foot soldiers don't yet know how to guage public sentiment surround Coronavirus. Climate change is completely different as the average armchair expert has already formed a consensus with other armchair experts about what they want to believe.

Here is an online petition requesting arrival screen start

Circulating wee chat, as we speak.

Yep, feels like a power play is on.

dont think we done much for the SARS epidemic in 2003,seem to remember we gave up screening at the airport.the chinese built a hospital in 7 days then.nothing from the govt yet about how we are going to handle it when it surfaces.

This article by VOX could be applicable to so many arguments that being put forward by so many people on so many topics

“Flood the zone with shit”: How misinformation overwhelmed our democracy

Harvard expert calls coronavirus outbreak 'thermonuclear pandemic level bad'

I'm hoping that Barry Soper on New Stalk ZB is correct , in that the Maori Party re-emerges after the 2020 election with some seats ....

.. that ought to spike Winston Peter's power ...and the MP worked well with Jolly Kid & the Gnats .... ironically , cos the centre left had always claimed the Maori seats in parliament .... it will be exciting to have them back ...

China is banning tourist parties from leaving Monday . It’s very serious transmission before symptoms

China is banning tourist parties from leaving Monday . It’s very serious transmission before symptoms

Wuhan citizen seeking help from the world

Two Nasty Traits of This Coronavirus, Typically Not Seen Together

OK ... so it wasn't just me ... they had a political panel chat on New Shrub radio this morning .... and , they said it was utterly disgraceful that NZ sent no one to the Holocaust 75 Year Anniversary in Jerusalem ...

... Taxcinda gave some pathetic excuse about security ... as if the Israelis don't know anything about terrorism and security ....

Pathetic , Taxcinda ... embarrassing & pathetic ... you've made this country look like we're scaredy craven little weaklings ....

Wow, that's bad

Bigger stuff to worry about at the moment GBP...better stock up on that beer front. Better throw away your frozen bats as well...

Gummy, yeah, security.
Jacindamania spreads as Jeremy Corbyn urges New Zealand’s Ardern to ‘do it for us’

A few days ago, however, Ardern proudly shared an endorsement she’d received that may have caused a few Jewish Kiwis some discomfort. This was from UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn – a man seen by many progressives as a hero of the left. But for the vast majority of UK Jews – and many Kiwi Jews too – he is seen as tolerant of anti-Semitism, if not actively anti-Semitic.

Nurse from Mishs link, looks out of control, someone in NZ is going to have to make some big decisions tomorrow that will affect us all.

... let's hope for all our sakes they don't put Phil Twyford in charge of it ...

In that case . .. yes ... I would go into panic mode ... , full blown Gummy meltdown....

Gummy let us know your bunker address in case of a pandemic, especially if PT is in charge.
I trust you have enough food to survive for a couple of weeks, and then at least 2 months worth of beer after that

600 miles away
BREAKING: China's city of Shantou, with a population of over five million people, to close its borders and go into lockdown.
The city has a combined population of 10M (metro+urb)

Gummy's going into lockdown , AJ ....

... in the man cave ... stretched out in the lazy boy rocker .. with a beer fridge full of goodies . ..
Bring on yer Wu Flu .. I'm juiced and ready . . HIC !!! ... pardon moi ....

I been working on the car all afternoon.

Time to stock up and lock the gate

I'm watching 28 Weeks Later.

If Wuhan is a bad as some of the social media suggests, I'm guessing someone in authority will come out tomorrow with an instruction for those in Wuhan (and possibly other cities with high infection rates) not to approach hospitals/GPs/clinics but to stay at home and fight the virus with traditional methods for the flu: isolation, hand washing/sanitising, masks and lots of fluids.

And if someone dies - then ring the authorities.

... yes ... best if everyone stays home ... 'cos hospitals have no cure for it ....face masks are worse than useless ....

Stay home ... make a pot of tea ...relax , and read a little red book ...

Eat some bats balls, they boost your immune system.

Please, don't advise them to stop spitting freely on the ground.. that's against culture. Or is it?

we can relax now,after tomorrow there will be a public health nurse at the airport available to take the temperature of any traveller who feels unwell.

Should really cancel all in bound visitors from mainland China flights. Suspect our govt is waiting for WHO to make that determination.

Now Kate, be careful on that. It's good, logical steps. BUT every local supports agent will announce that as Xenophobe.

NSW. "It's a moving feast"

Sky News

Their comms are better than ours.
Dual language too.

I wonder what Mr X thinks?
His home country, lower-middle income and communist, and a breeding ground for killer disease.
Glad as heck I don't live there!

... yeah .... but the food is pretty good .... well , if you're not chewing on a bat's wing or a hedgehog's testicles .. . Otherwise , top nosh .....

The Abiding Balding.

Let me explain the information environment in China during times of crises using the Princess Bride. In this classic scene the hero challenges one of the kidnappers to a battle of the wits to the death and puts poison in a glass of wine telling the kidnapper to choose one of the glasses. The kidnapper uses logic to try and figure out which glass the poison is in but ends up trapped on logical circles.

The same problem applies in China. Despite the idea that everything Chinese state media is a lie, they clearly sprinkle in a healthy dose or at least just enough truth so that people struggle to tell what the truth is. Chinese know that the government lies about an enormous amount but not everything. Why? Because if the government lied about everything just do the opposite.

·However, people generally treat the government as more of a continual liar rather than a random 50/50 chance game. Chinese friend told me a story, cannot perfectly vouch for accuracy but just the legend even if not true is revealing. After the Fukushima nuclear accident a rumor started floating around China that iodized salt would protect people from radiation fall out. The government, accurately, issued a statement that iodized salt would not protect people from radiation fall out. This precipitated rush on iodized salt in China. This drive
another less understood problem. Because no one trusts the government or state media, everyone has much higher probability to believe friend, the internet, rumors. The rumor mill in China and the prevalence of conspiracy theories is truly like nothing I could compare it to.

This happens because people are much more likely to believe a) anything from unofficial sources b) from a trusted friend or family member even if it is absolutely crazy. Finally, add in this issue of impacting health. If there is one thing the Chinese public knows it is that the Chinese government is the biggest liar ever on anything health and public safety related. Why do you think stores around the world have signs limiting milk powder purchases for Chinese tourists more than a decade later? There is zero revealed trust in government.

The Chinese public is like the Princess Bride kidnapper. Clearly I cannot chose the glass in front of me but then you know that I would know that so clearly I cannot choose the glass in front of you. They also know the game, having played before, that the government has put poison in both glasses, so they put on masks, stay in doors, and simply refuse to drink from the poisoned glass of the CCP. There are many more layers to the information than simply saying state media lies and people do/don't believe what they are told. Done.

The fan is looking brown.

China has stopped its citizens from booking overseas tours as part of the country's efforts to curtail the spread of coronavirus in a further blow to Australia's beleaguered tourism operators.

State media reported that the China Tourism Association had already halted all domestic holiday hotel and flight bookings through travel agencies on Friday and announced on Saturday it would do the sam

Point is, if infection rates escalate really quickly and it looks like the CCP have lost control (i.e., unable to treat), millions will want to flee - and then what happens once they land elsewhere and try to claim refugee and/or asylum status? Nightmare.

Yep, and looking through the modelling from Imperial College (above), they say, that we (all locations) must test as many people as they have capacity to test. I.e. throw the kitchen sink at it.

Would refugee status apply?

I feel the coronavirus outbreak could be China's Chernobyl moment.

No way, they're super power - China is for Chinese & every Chinese is for China, always been like that the past 5000yrs or more. China have ample preparation on this, their funding systems, their apparatus have been develop massively the past 30-40yrs for handling the outbreak, anything from Radiation, Chemical, Biological (such as this one).. don't underestimate that one. You can simply observed their mini economic activities in AKL imported courtesy of Nat co. - Anything almost absolute, deal only with each others, shared resources, very consistent, persistent & systematic regular/random which in the end about the same goal - Initially I felt the same, but naah.. China already fully prepared for it, now it's just a matter of field test. We can only watch. I'm just not so sure about AKL/NZ, when 4-5 detected in MelB? - Can NZ do the same detection? - be prepared though.

Depends on your body resistance, you could be the carrier for months to come not a single temp check/scanner can detect something that slowly developed inside you, then when it manifest firstly just showing a similar flu/cold/cough symptoms, this one is airborne spread. Chinese don't like you to mention about the spitting habit. When those infectious sputum, phlegm dried & blown by the wind. Then the same like TBC in olden days, we need to develop effective vaccinations quickly against this new airborne disease. Last time airborne SARS, now CORONA, couple months back the Ebola return...folks, eventually the super tiny germs will claim a winner, at a cost. But don't worry China is super power now, so super they don't need world collaboration on this, BUT may be? this could be a wake up call to China elite ruling CCP.. that after all we're all stuck on this fluid interconnected, inter dependency world of little blue planet we called Earth. Remember this is the year of the Rat - pest infestation, breed, greed, consume, more, and consume more.