Markets turn seriously risk averse; benchmark bond prices jump; NY Fed struggles with liquidity support; US jobs data ignored; Aussie's mull stimulus; UST 10yr yield at 0.74%; oil drops hard and gold higher; NZ$1 = 63.6 USc; TWI-5 = 68.4

Markets turn seriously risk averse; benchmark bond prices jump; NY Fed struggles with liquidity support; US jobs data ignored; Aussie's mull stimulus; UST 10yr yield at 0.74%; oil drops hard and gold higher; NZ$1 = 63.6 USc; TWI-5 = 68.4
Lake Tarawera hot pools

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news European and Asian markets fell hard yesterday to end the week and American markets are no better today.

Wall Street is gripped with fear again and even a strong February US jobs report is failing to ease the mood. Equity indexes started negative and have stayed negative, down -3.2% from yesterday in mid-afternoon trade, and sinking. If they stay at this level the S&P500 will end the week unchanged, having been unable on three occasions to sustain any rally.

The bond markets are showing even more fear. Many commodities are weak although gold is firmer. Public bailout programs haven't been announced yet even though may investors thought they would by now. Now the worry is, when they come they will be inadequate. But NY Fed overnight repo purchase activity is now at levels only before seen during the 9/11 emergency, and were at a record high today. This level of support indicates the authorities are having trouble maintaining market liquidity.

US non farm payrolls rose by +273,000 in February and that was well more than expected. But this data was collected in surveys in the first half of the month and so precede the sharp bite of the coronavirus fear effects outside China. It also displays outlier results. This last time an unusually large gain was reported, it was reversed with a sharp correction the following month. Their low participation rate (63.4%) made no progress. Hourly wage gains slipped to +3.0% pa. Strong employment gains were noted in healthcare (+57,000), foodservice workers (+53,000), and government workers (+47,000) These three sectors accounted for about 60% of the February rise. Factory job levels slipped.

Data on American consumer debt levels will be released about 9am NZT and if there are significant movements, we will update that here. Update: Its growth slowed slightly in January.

Canadian employment grew strongly as well in February, but again, their survey was early in the month too. Their rises were pretty much all from full-time job gains. Their participation rate (65.4%) was unchanged as well.

In China, bankruptcies are starting to emerge, and bad loans are piling up. It will only get worse, even if the virus emergency there is toppig out. The economic impacts will only grow from here. And the Chinese authorities are fighting the economic impacts with "more debt" which can't end well. And official news accounts of "economic progress" are laughably unrealistic, undermining what must be huge efforts being made to stabilise a worsening situation.

Key prices of some international commodities seem to be hanging in there, although others aren't. Iron ore prices haven't dropped and neither have those for (steel-making) coal. If anything they have firmed. And just like air-freight rates, shipping rates are rising sharply. It seem s that freight capacity is being removed faster than freight demand. But prices for copper, nickel and aluminium are all now falling.

Australian retail sales were weak in January, weaker than expected, dropping to a gain of just +2.1%, the slowest January year-on-year gain since 2005. This slowdown is concentrated in January which actually shrank, all due to bush fire and drought effects. None of this January decline is due yet to coronavirus.

Australia is working on an economic stimulus package to avoid its first recession almost 30 years.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 101,583 of officially confirmed cases, up +20% in a week. There are now 21,010 cases outside China, a rise of +3389 in one day as the numbers keep on jumping in South Korea, Italy and Iran. 15,976 are in those three countries (76%). A week ago that outside-China number was 5931 so it is still quadrupling in a week. Inside China, the growth of reported cases has stopped. But global deaths are now up to 3460 and 3044 are in China (86%).

The most spectacular move overnight has been the extreme risk aversion shown in the bond market. Demand is rocketing for the safety of Government benchmark bonds. The UST 10yr yield is now just under 0.74% which is a very sharp -18 bps drop from the previously record low 0.92% yesterday, and a stunning -38 bps dump from this time yesterday. Regular readers will know the a -1 or -2 bps daily fall is a lot in this market. The rate curves are still in that strange transition behaviour we have seen for the past week. Their 2-10 curve is more positive at +25 bps. Their 1-5 curve has turned sharply positive at +21 bps. but their 3m-10yr curve is still negative, just less so at -2 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -5 bps for the week to 0.68%. The China Govt 10yr now at 2.69% and down -11 bps for the week. The NZ Govt 10 yr is down -11 bps for the week at 0.95%. The NZ and Australian rates also involve drops to unprecedented record low levels.

Gold has risen +US$5 overnight to US$1.668/oz. That is not a big daily gain, but since this time last week the yellow metal has jumped +6.1% or +US$96/oz.

The Fear & Greed index we follow is now near a record at the 'extreme fear' side of the dial. The VIX volatility index is at the same high it was a week ago, now 48, up from just over 17 two weeks ago and its highest since March 2009.

US oil prices are sharply lower overnight at just over US$42/bbl and down more than -US$3/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also lower at just over US$46/bbl. The US rig count is surprisingly stable at its new low level but is hard to see it staying at this level for much longer. A dive is imminent, you would think. And a long-standing informal deal between OPEC and Russia has collapsed after Moscow refused to support deeper oil cuts to cope with the sharp demand drop, and then OPEC retaliated by removing all limits on its own production.

The Kiwi dollar is ending the week sharply higher, mainly on a sliding greenback. It is now 63.6 USc, up more than +½c in a day and up +1½c since this time last week. On the cross rates we are little-changed in a week at 95.9 AUc. Against the euro we are softer by -½c for the week at 56.2 euro cents. We have slipped against the Yen. That means our TWI-5 is now at 68.4 and a minor net gain.

Bitcoin is now at US$9,090 which is very similar to where we left it last night, but it is a +6.5% weekly rise, making back a little of the sharp losses in the prior two weeks. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

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144 Comments

I was reading the Paymark February release last night - some surprisingly positive results. Does anyone know how these might correlate with the Stats NZ figures next week?

"Spending with China-issued credit cards was down 39.3% in February from a year earlier but had been up 19.8% in January. Total foreign-issued credit card spending was up 4.1% in January and 12.7% in February, with the high February figure in part due to the leap year effect."

https://news.fuseworksmedia.com/f1d4006d-b612-44ab-bf29-eede6cf39d6c

As I have said before, hospitality will get whacked massively by the virus

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=123...

We're looking very good till end of March but it could indeed become difficult afterwards

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without trying to appear mean, that is capitalism at action and something we need every twenty years, the weak companies will fold the stronger ones will pick up their customers to make it through and when the dust settles new companies will spring up.
it favors those with good business plans and management skills and penalizes those that have been using the good times to get by without looking to keep improving their business.

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Sadly our current leaders do not understand that and they will set to propping them up.

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Current leaders? That EXACTLY how the last ten years have been ruled. Think south Canterbury finance and that insurance Co and any number of prop ups perpetrated by previous governments. Infact that is the only modous operand used world wide, hence the bubble.

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Pretty sure all the regulars round here know Kezza (and several others) has a thing for pouring scorn on Jacinda for any reason at all, regardless of whether if its exactly what National would do too.

Come on the clear majority knew weeks ago that action was required, what have we got so far.. not much at all.
I don't think Bridges is much chop either espically with his Chinise conections. I would be as equally as sconfull on him if he was mucking arround.
The time to back this or that fraction and politicking is gone and strong actions and leadership is required. In less than one month parts of NZ will be in lock down, the hard calls need to be made now. OCR cut, so banks can drop rates and those savings can be passed on to renters. Bucks alocated for health and builds modifided to accomodate people who require care and quarenteen. NZ is not China and 5 day builds impossible here.
Will we see action or continuation of stay calm Jacinda has got this when we know it's a 80% chance that she hasn't.
Blind faith for one party over another dosen't cut it, it is time to call a spade a spade.

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Wait, you think OCR cuts will be passed on to renters? Pull the other one.

If people want to keep someone in their flat, yes I do. Maybe it needs to be made clear that the saving need to be passed on. Worth a crack, do you have another idea?

Keep someone in your flat as opposed to them all moving out to where exactly ?

Old people can die from this, if tenants in 20s,30s want to move home I'd be telling them to stay away

They can always go somewhere when it comes down to dollars. Emergency housing for example.

Young people can die too

Concentrate on the here and now Redcows, what has occured in the past is the past. Decisive action is required NOW and dwelling on the past changes nothing.

Sadly that is what happened in 2008 with quantitive easing and low interest rates which only puts off the inevitable.

Agree and if this continues over April, situation will get worse and it will be a while...... before things get better and by that time lot will change and asset value (Stock / Houses) will be reset and current high that have been experienced will be a distant dream for now - IF current situation gets worse and not controlled by next month.

For now best to wait on side and watch as this is not normal economy downturn that can be controlled by easy and cheap money.

It's ridiculous. In particular America holds itself up as the model of capitalism ( everything privatised like healthcare) but then embark on a programme of continued corporate socialism - hand outs for the rich.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

by Cowpat | 6th Mar 20, 4:26pm
If Wall St falls tonight , RBNZ will get the nod and cut OCR Monday morning

We'll find out on Monday morning then, Cowpat

Orr should drop 50 points but Jacinda won't want to create fear. Too late we all know this is going to be worse than 2008. Hit it and hit it hard, now is not the time to mess arround. It won't stop what is coming but at least some of the interest rate sting will be gone.
Can Jacinda face up and admit what is coming or continue to play it down?

They need much more than OCR cuts. Probably lots of targetted financial assistance needs to be dished out

By far more than OCR cuts and that was clear to the majority on here a month ago.

The one thing that will get me in the streets is assistance to mortgage holders or (MORE!) accommodation supplements.

they will drop interest rates because they worry about people ability to pay.

Exactly - banks will restrict lending to those that certainly can pay because they have collateral and pre-existing wealth to cover most liquidity issues. Inevitably interest rates will fall further since the majority of economic players are excluded from adequate funding to grow productive GDP qualifying capacity.

You realise Orr/RBNZ is independent.. they don't bow to Jacindas wishes, and No Labour MP is on the monetary policy committee?

Not at present he is part of the sit down planning crew and he needs to tow the line and do his bit. independant yes but there is preasure on him to act or not to as the case maybe from the round table.

Do you *really* think they are 100% independent?
Structurally they might be, but I don't think for a second they are oblivious to political expectations.

I'm sure they are aware of the political ramifications, but I don't believe they are anywhere near under the thumb, or would make a decision that is significantly out of line with their mandate for political reasons.

How many do you know from those committee that don't own any property? - well, that's is your subconscious answer. Most likely they'll cut it by 75 this Mar 25th, then another 25 on May -in attempt to flog / stimulate the plastic unicorn pony to run. To entice daring truck driver to break barricade for extra $ incentives - When some part of township need to be isolated this coming winter months. Those Orr's group of committee may be independent, but they're human like the rest of us, have family, owned properties, have a mortgage. Like that slogan: They're us - so their herd subconscious decision? your own safety first. Not going to be a dead heroes for sure.

it was a massive fall then last minute turned into a small one as last minute buyers came in

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Was the last minute buyer the Fed/Plunge Protection Team by chance?

it was a massive fall then last minute turned into a small one as last minute buyers came in

Interest rate cut will not help for few reasons :

1 : More than demand this is supply and health issue.
2 : Interest rates are already low and by dropping to zero will not make much difference as it did when dropped from $5 or 4% or may be even 3% - As anyone heard of LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURN.
3 : Fear is more powerfull than greed (People who were throwing money are more panicky - look around you)
4 : Federal reserve's and government world over : soon to run out of options at least the traditional method and will than be trial and error - Hit or miss.
5 : At this stage no one has any clue about this virus that is spreading on a daily bases -All over the word
6 : No one can for definite say when all this will end (As of today) and what damages it has already done to economy and what more it can do.
7 : Fed and govt world over will be soon entering unchartered territory of negative interest which may force all middle class families to move away from traditional deposit and Will be exposed to high risk area.

So government / fed at this stage is helpless and facing consequences of their own action of the past and corona virus only acted as a catalyst and that too a deadly one.

On top of it being election year will try hard and take more chances as cannot afford sit and look doing nothing and may be do more harm than good.

Wait and watch.

Kellyanne Conway
Probably where conversations here will go but for some reason not be circulated here yet.

https://youtu.be/3rBPNPUoFbY

USA funding $8,3 billion dollars. Virus fighting.
Trump talking of ramping up testing.
Production and shipping of testing all on schedule.

https://youtu.be/gxpnQLS4HIQ
4 million tests for next week.
Pop. 320 million.

NZ can do 550 per day, say 3,850 per week (working weekends).

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Hang on, that is an entirely partisan (and inaccurate) spin. The US Administration asked Congress for US$1.2 bln to deal with the emergency, but Congress (especially the House) baulked at the inadequate response, forcing on them a program seven times as large. So far, the Administration hasn't reinstated their steep funding cuts to the NIH (and CDC) budgets which gutted them, other than agreeing to not oppose this latest funding. But yes, this latest catchup is a good thing, even if it should have been unnecessary if they were properly prepared.

NZ needs to add some serious bucks now as well. The writing is on the wall, it is coming, act now Labour! You are only a month late, maybe you could pull it together in thw next few weeks.

Yep it's pretty funny.
Trump asked for $1.2billion and they gave him $8,3billion.
The inference is he is doing such a good job, he's good for the money, here is some more, they like him so much more money.

Mind you if he went big, dems would do opposite, so he went low Dems went opposite big, mega cash, deal done. He gets to sign the bill.

Its classic, straight out of Art of the Deal, if you want to know what happens next.

I found find it, the whole of America approach, the leader out in front owning it the ramping up testing mega funding, it's in contrast to what we are doing.
The optics.
Nurses complaining, virus case people complaining, little testing (picking & choosing).

Lol. HT spins so much we can hire him out to a lab to power the centrifuge for separating the samples.

Prag, check your assumptions.

List us 3 things that nz virus response is better resourced, quicker or more well planned than
Soth Korea,
Singapore
Or Australia/USA.

P.S. South Korea have tested 140,000 people.
This test blitz is providing brilliant data, useful to whole world.
And also the type of test kit is of importance too.

Medcram - vgood
https://youtu.be/Eeh054-Hx1U

Dr Campbell, - good
https://youtu.be/XDSq3cgWaAg

Yep it's pretty funny.
Trump asked for $1.2billion and they gave him $8,3billion.
The inference is he is doing such a good job, he's good for the money, here is some more, they like him so much more money.

That is what i was referring to, what a load of twaddle. and no, i'm not going to pay your stupid question game (now or ever), I have better things to do.
South korea has aneed to test 140,000 people, they have a massive outbreak. We don't.

Prag, see this, you won't like it, Trump with CDC folk, talking about testing and the cruise ship.

https://youtu.be/ivy-5viN-88

Twaddle or otherwise, there are a lot of people in USA that see the same set of facts in or with a different interpretation.
A lot of people say Trump will win again the election.

The point here is, seeing nz response to virus in context and contrast to what others are doing.
Q. Why not blitz test like Sth Korea, why not run comms like Singapore.

Yes blitz test shiuld be done, maybe not yet but soonish. The problem with that is reinfection via people arriving in the country.

There is nothing wrong with the comms we have at the moment. They are entirely appropriate for the actual level of the issue we have.

And again, we don't need to blitz test, we have 3 cases (5 confirmed patients) with covid-19. all of which were imported from overseas, we have no community tranmission except within two of these families, and they are already in isolation.

Prag, can you understand the text here about the cruise people, the air nz flight and the North Shore Hospital worker standing down?
When did they get off the boat?

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/fifth-case-covid-19...

As part of appropriate measures, a number of North Shore Hospital staff (where the woman was treated) are regarded as close contacts and have been stood down for the balance of the 14 day period. Over 80 staff identified as having treated the woman - 43 are classified as close contacts and now in isolation.

We can't keep having medical folk drop out like this..

And maybe one or two of the 43 will be tested for COVID19... Most likely not, as none of them came from China or northern Italy... The low number of confirmed covid19 in NZ is primarily a function of testing numbers at this point instead of actual infection.

Again, the response is entirely appropriate, nothing to make a fuss about here, move on.

Sure, 1 patient: 43 medical staff off roster & quarantined for 14 days

All good.
(Could we guess you are not front line medic).

Mate it all follow the leader, follow the leader with the pragmatist. Thinking for themself, yeah not so important. Follow the leader, follow the leader.... same song as Xing.

Lol, no, i just get tired of your one track whinge.

WOW how bullying of you.

wtf? Bullying? ok snowflake.

Followed by more name calling. Great work

Lol, what sort of hypocrite are you:

"Mate it all follow the leader, follow the leader with the pragmatist. Thinking for themself, yeah not so important."
"WOW how bullying of you."

Glass houses, throwing stones...

Guess again Pragmatist. Jacinda hasn't got this on grip. Bad maths also.

That you know of yet...

But it's out there spreading. Guaranteed.

And will spread faster due to the current leadership starting that people who do not show flu symptoms can not pass it on. Come on, dose she think we don't read up on this???

TAG having to revise thinking.
Yep, and see the change yesterday in TAG directive to clinicians.

Period of communicability
Provisionally, the period of communicability is considered to commence 48 hours before onset of
symptoms and continue until the case is symptom free for 48 hours.

See post lower in thread.

WTF 5 infected all put of the country except two.. and another case that was transmitted on a flight to NZ and maybe actually in NZ... seriously Pragmatist ???? Wake up mate!
2 cases came in, 3 in NZ! You and Xing are cut from the same tow the party line cloth.

You're such a big girls blouse Kezza, stop getting your knickers in a twist. You're getting hysterical over very low numbers.

WOW how sexest of you!
Yep 100k infected or have been infected and you don't get that there will be a million current soon, followed by a billion.
Yep keep your head in the sand, nothing to worry about here, move on.
Let's talk again in a month, when the magnitude of this will starting to becoming clear.

CJ, here is a non emotive item for you, gives practical background.- see the ones before todays too.

There is good sense in being pro active compared to reactive.
Can we guess you don't spend much time in areas or environments with exponential systems or populations.

Dr Campbell
https://youtu.be/UVTyl7Y4IMo

Except i'm not a Labour supporter or party member, I don't even think that much of Jacinda, and this current coalition is shite. I just don't agree with your massive over-dramatisation of what is currently a minor issue. Just because you are running scared, doesn't mean the rest of us need to.

As much as I wish you were right, you are just indulging in wishful thinking. So many other countries have been where we are a few weeks to a month back- all have slid rapidly towards epidemic. NZ is not special. Govt preparation and response is weak, and it will soon show up in large numbers of infections.

Yep, there are going to be larger numbers of infections later.. its unavoidable. Doesn't mean the current response is wrong.

We will see about that! Let's talk again in a couple of months when the current leadership has been exposed.

Yeah, I know you'll think it was wrong, you have a one track whinge going on. There is no way to avoid this disease getting here and spreading, the best hope is somebody discovers a treatment regime or get a vaccine fast tracked.

How out of line of me to demand action from those in charge.

They are taking action.... sensible and reasonable action.

Keep on believing that despite a dismal 2.5 years of non delivery action.

I was talking about the Corona-virus response. You seem to have pivoted to something else. You are quite right on the kiwibuild BS etc, they suck.

Prag, do you agree "they" made some significant changes yesterday, about definition, clinicians guidelines, testing capacity and occurrence. Pretty close to a reset.

The reset was coming with or without the WuFlu.
Prag isn't happy. If I hadn't seen this coming and prepared accordingly, I would be freaking as well.

I'm not happy??? Its you two that are freaking out and bitching about everything constantly.

Bitching wow man. Chill!

lol, fucking hypocrite.

Everyone has to sit up and do what Prag says.

How can we believe what China sayes in regards to no new cases of the virus exists in their country. How realistic is there death numbers. Obviously, a high number of business people from Iran and Italy have visited China to do economic arrangements and have been infected as a consequence.
Due to China's slow reaction of finally admitting the virus will cause countries to reevaluate their dependence on manufacturing in China and look to revert back to their own countries work force even it means increased costs for their products. At least they can be assured of being able to supply the marketplace.

The UST 10yr yield is now just under 0.74% which is a very sharp -18 bps drop from the previously record low 0.92% yesterday, and a stunning -38 bps dump from this time yesterday.

Bond market (now stocks) at DEFCON1. Why is that? It isn't just about coronavirus fallout. When officials have been lying about the two biggest pieces of the economic puzzle for years, it doesn't exactly instill much confidence. Link

It already dropped below last year so we were going into a recession within two years from that point.

One of the best appraisals I've seen:

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-03-05/coronavirus-synchronous-fa...

"The global system is currently on the brink of multiple simultaneous crises. Intersecting energy, economic and environmental crises have formed destabilizing amplifying feedback loops with social, political and cultural systems".

Clearly the writer 'gets it'. The virus may or may not be the trigger, but a trigger there will be.

You don't get it pdk. All the comments above should help. We just need more money thrown at it. ;)

That's just crazy. Throwing money at it wont work... we need to tax it!
Starting with increasing GST (Got Sick Tax)
if that doesn't work, we should go European and implement VAT (Virus added Tax)
and if all else fails, I know everyone on here fully supports a CGT (Convid Gains Tax)

Exactally the Labour way, increasing tax at present will have her out of office by the end of the month.

Right on the button Powerdownkiwi. We are are looking at several things falling apart at the same time. That will have massive effects on everything. It is looking like the barter system maybe on the cards due to money printing. A loaf of bread maybe a million USD soon.

Borrow EURs and buy US stocks, carry trade unwind? Causing a EUR/USD short squeeze?
https://www.tradersinsight.news/traders-insight/securities/macro/why-the...

But NY Fed overnight repo purchase activity is now at levels only before seen during the 9/11 emergency, and were at a record high today. This level of support indicates the authorities are having trouble maintaining market liquidity.

Record high today?- not quite - the outstanding net RP injection high was recorded on 3/1/20 at $254.67 billion - today $176.68 billion - graphic evidence
The Only Thing That's Normal Is How Nothing Is

I wonder whether political rallies in the lead up to the US election will be cancelled/prohibited? Particularly given the ages of the candidates!!! ....

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-03-06_10-16-42.jpg...

Lol, your vote or your life?

https://www.ccn.com/rebel-analyst-2020-will-be-part-two-of-the-2008-mark...

If Corona Virus issue is sorted in next few weeks, we may see market making new high by early nrxylt year but if not and rxtend to next month than yes - prepare for very bad time ahead

That is the question, nrxylt year or rxtend to next month

That is a jolly good question and one I will ponder for the rest of the weekend, Yvill.

A lot off $$’s has gone rushing into the safety of bonds.

When this virus blows over – a lot of those $$’s will rush back into stocks – could be quite a ride.

When this virus blows over – a lot of those $$’s will want to get out of bonds in a hurry – don’t want to be the last ones out – could be quite a bath.

Even if 1.3 million Americans are dead? Not to mention those in Africa ( Didn't Bill Gates - whose charity specialises in disease eradication suggest 100 million globally?)
That's a lot fewer consumers of all sort of things that those companies that manage to survive ( many going the way of FlyBe?) will need to justify their share prices? In which case interest rates are going to stay put for decades ( ie: no need to panic sell bonds?)
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/
Of course, none of us knows. None of us. But if there is one market that seems to have had a handle on it, and has had on the economics of the Globe for some time (40 years?)- it's the Bond Market.

The first bull market started after World War I and lasted until after World War II.... the U.S. Government kept bond yields artificially low through the inflationary period of World War II and up to 1951. It wasn't until these restrictions were lifted that the bond market began to reflect the new inflationary environment.... from a low of 1.9% in 1951, long-term U.S. bond yields then climbed to a high of nearly 15% by 1981. This was the turning point for the century's second bull market.

I’m just putting one possible scenario out there – your scenario could equally be valid.

Also would depend on the short, medium or long term viewpoint.

Agree with some of your sentiments regarding the bond market – although you can also read numerous well considered articles suggesting various bonds have been horribly mispriced for the last 10 years or so - as they might be currently.

If China gets on top of the virus and the USA gets walloped by it, then watch China offer to send in medical teams to assist the floundering USA medical response. Remember that wealth is very unevenly distributed in the USA; between 80 to 90 % of the population could not afford the specialized and intensive treatment that would be needed if one caught the virus.
China could greatly benefit under this scenario:
1. USA would feel obliged to cave in on the Trade War dispute.
2. China could employ their medical assistance as a trojan horse and infiltrate all sorts of USA vulnerabilities.

Remember you heard it here first!

And collapse the USD at the same time.

So we should all be looking forward to cheaper petrol prices.....Ahahahahaha...

We already are getting them.. https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/commodities/oil-and-petrol

slide the slider to show from the start of the year till now, and they are in a declining trend.

Jokes aside, can we move on from 'cheaper oil prices' please?

It is energy which does work which produces things. So it is the net-available energy (minus efficiencies) which underwrites money. You cannot have 'cheaper' fuel as your EROEI descends the right-hand side of the graph......

Peak Prosperity

Note New Zealand gets a mention approx. minute 26

https://youtu.be/4InhmRCIpow

Excellent youtube video Henry. It really sums it all up.
Funny thing is, we don't hear of the Scandinavian countries having cases yet.....altogether too clean and too well-organised I suppose. For instance, I don't think they would countenance the spitting in the streets that we see here. Or the taking of medical advice from witchdoctors and quacks.
With NZ's geographical isolation we, of all countries, should have been able to avoid this altogether.
Jacinda up to now has seemed only interested in international acclaim after 2 1/2 years at the helm; she's allowed the door to be opened with the result that our government should now be on a war footing. But I can't see any person in any party currently in parliament that I would have sufficient confidence in to handle a crisis.
I suppose you could say that we get the politicians we deserve.

Maybe Collins, she would ruffle some feathers but she would deliver and not give a toss about about the abuse from the side lines.

***FIVE CASES NOW***
We were told very little to no chance of spreading. .
NZ needs to demand action and stop the bloody lies from the top NOW!

The way this needs to be looked at is like the All Blacks / Silver Ferns going into the world cup. Do we confidence in the present management / have they produced results in the lead up? NO and NO.
This is not about my team / your team we are all on the same team but the management is not proforming and it did not deliver in the lead up, it is very doubtful they will manage this situation at present. To continue to back the management no matter what they do is not the way forward for Labour followers, they need to voice their views back to head office and demand results.

11
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oh ffs, stop being melodramatic. it is the partner of an existing case, already in isolation, totally expected that they would test positive after catching it off their partner. Its a non-event.

Other than in country transmission.

Inside a household that is already in isolation. A non-event.

Caught in the plane by sitting within 2m of the first case. Half a story Prag.

Where is your evidence for that? Like actual reputable evidence, not some scaremongering blog post or youtube video.

1st case was someone that had returned from Iran, a woman in her 60s.
2nd case was a woman that had returned from Italy,
3rd case was someone with family that had recently returned from Iran.
4th case, husband of 2nd case.
5th case, partner of 3rd case.

All have travel links to overseas outbreaks. Who caught it on a plane exactly?

And when called on to backup his rubbish statements, not a bloody word to be said.. Except in the 5 or so other posts made or edited after the time of my previous post.

Sorry I not waiting on your beck and call Sir Prag. So the 2nd just happened to be sitting all ready had it and was sitting in the 2m zone as case 1. Yeah great blood detective work there.

Again, where the hell is the evidence they were even on the same flight? I haven't seen anyone but you mention it, I'm sure if there was anything to it I would have seen others screaming about it. Are you going to back your claim up with evidence of some sort or is this just another load of complete cobblers.

Yes Sir Parg anything you say Sir Prag.

Not man enough to admit you got nothing but fairytales?

FFS this is going to be a shocker under Jacinda's 'leadership'. Very few have faith in her due to her 2 plus year history todate.
According to Jacinda there was little chance of infection sitting within 2m of an infected person BUT IT HAPPENED and from reading about this virus from external press it happens a lot. She has told us a person who dose not show signs can not pass it on also incorrect. She can not get Kiwi Build sorted in a country of pine trees and it's clear she will not be able to provide food in a country with food. Her track record is dismal to say the least!
Relax Jacinda has got this... said very few!
Your last Labour one person Gov't was a lot better than this one!

Keep it in perspective, eh?

No political party could - or would - have done more, or less. The only way to solve it would have been a 100% cessation of travel, immediately. You got any idea how the screaming would have sounded from those 'losing money'?

And remember that something like this had to happen:
https://overpopulation-project.com/what-is-the-optimal-sustainable-popul...
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/tag/paul-chefurka/

There was time to prepare and she has not used that time effectively. Her track record is shocking.

Stop being such a drama queen. Not once have you mentioned what you think it is that Bridges would have done differently, not once, and do not answer "more" or "faster" as that would be meaningless, what would he do. You can't answer because beyond tax cuts he has not offered one single thing.

'Drama queen' Sexest comment.
It is about here and now and not following party lines.
Jacinda has not delivered and she will fail to deliver on this as well. History repeats.

' You bang on about leadership as you run around like a headless chook.- but continue to demand the event be amped up ( preferably by Bridges and Bennett) - business people apparently - lol.
Oh and you want the failed property bulls bailed out yesterday.

Bridges isn't much chop and Bennett is compleatly useless.
I said no such thing as prop up property. Let property drop like a stone. It was clear from the start that it will fall. Let everything fall, it is time for a clean out, which has been clear for months and I took steps to get out of everything to be ready.
If you didn't see it coming, TOUGH COOKIES all the info was there to see.
It is looking like the ones talking this down are the ones who will be caught with their pants down when the tide goes out.

Case case case case case this week next week will be cluster cluster cluster from 4 weeks ago exposure (possibly Wellington or Queenstown) then boom??? and everyone will say what a suprise. Lets see where Italy ends the next 7days and also Seattle to where we are headed.

Yes, still a lot on here and in the govt with their heads in the sand.
90k infected present and past and the global economy falling apart.. Let try a million currently infected and then onto a billion.

This morning's TAG group has been doing some work.

Check the url and download the pdf dated 7 March 2020.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-nov...

Of the many changes, this one of note.

Clinicians should also maintain a high level of suspicion and consider testing in case of doubt.

No bad thing.

And
Period of communicability
Provisionally, the period of communicability is considered to commence 48 hours before onset of
symptoms and continue until the case is symptom free for 48 hours.

A financial crisis could be looming where people least expect. This is not a potential black swan event, but most people are unaware of.

Holding more than $3tn in assets, Japan’s regional lenders are bigger than the Italian banking system, and their excess deposits make them a crucial buyer of everything from collateralised loan obligations in the US to covered mortgage bonds in Denmark. 

“Japan has built up the world's largest net foreign lending position. Japanese financial institutions pump this capital out to the rest of the world: they are the beating heart of international capital flows,” said Shannon McConaghy, an asset manager at Horseman Capital in London, who follows the regional banks.

https://www.ft.com/content/80846e92-d07f-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

Yeah.
I don't view the virus as the thing that will crash the economic system, although it will weaken it and hasten the collapse.

Not looking flash at 100k cases, when we get to a billion that is a different story.

but will there be cheaper petrol next week?or cheaper airfares as planes are flying with empty seats.how good is sir john,resigning from airnz the week after the first case was reported.

Z ENERGY share price has now fallen so low , its dividend yield is almost 12 %.

It fell in December after a profit warning , but recovered strongly .

Its now down again and this time it looks lime its staying down . At $4.07 per share its the lowest in 5 years

The market must be expecting jet fuel sales to drop ............ a lot .

Or is it something else ?

I just looked at the S&P 500 on the "Market Watch" website and all the energy companies are taking a hit , some shares falling 16 % + in a single day

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w

A must watch!!!!

Special mention for NZ at the 26 minute mark. Its not good!

Here is Todays Peak Prosperity

https://youtu.be/3etuaYTDwFI

The narrator was basically lost for words on the NZ response.

I'm with you Kezza but your facing human nature. Many people are still in the denial phase and only when it hits them personally will they change. All flights into New Zealand should have been stopped weeks ago except for returning NZ Citizens and even then they should have all gone into quarantine. We simply didn't have a government with the balls to do it and we didn't have any specialized quarantine facility to handle the arrivals anyway. Too late now its game over and the outcome is just an exercise in maths. The USA is totally burn't toast in May. The fallout from this is going to be legendary. Labour is going to loose the election in a landslide in the way this was handled, thats if we will even be able to hold an election by then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI&list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEk...

I can't see Labour 'loosing' the election if Simon Bridges is planning on relaxing the foreign buyer ban.

If Labour handles the WuFlu badly they are gone, it dosent matter how bad the next team is

What government "had the balls" to do as you suggest ?

apologies for repeat comment

Only a very small chance they won't screw it up.

Italy is to quarantine more than 10 million people, with a lockdown in the region of Lombardy – which has Milan as its capital – and a dozen northern provinces. The decree has now been signed off by the Italian Prime Minister. It would give authorities the power to fine anyone caught entering or leaving the region and would see the closure of schools, bars, cinemas and public events until April 3.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/07/tourism-contributed-10-to-gdp-in-franc...

This gives us a taste of what will happen in NZ to the tourist sector if the virus takes off.

It's been said that the past couple years of OZ Banks milking NZ? - now, it's about payback time. Please, don't panic all - They do understand their social obligations - as we typed, there's a coordinated effort by them following G/Robertson request - to be lenient to the local business. Salute! (tui ads)

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