China's exports tumble but imports hold; eyes on domestic China demand; Aussie retail trade weakens; markets ignore US jobs gains; Fed struggles with liquidity support; UST 10yr yield at 0.77%; oil drops hard and gold higher; NZ$1 = 63.6 USc; TWI-5 = 68.4

China's exports tumble but imports hold; eyes on domestic China demand; Aussie retail trade weakens; markets ignore US jobs gains; Fed struggles with liquidity support; UST 10yr yield at 0.77%; oil drops hard and gold higher; NZ$1 = 63.6 USc; TWI-5 = 68.4

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news data is emerging that China is being seriously hobbled.

China's exports tumbled -17% in February from a year earlier in US dollar terms to US$292 bln, a sharp reverse from December’s +8% rise. Imports declined -4% to $300 bln, down from the previous month’s +16% gain. That resulted in a rare merchandise trade deficit even if it was minor. The sharp impacts of the coronavirus are doing what the trade war initiated by the Americans couldn't do - slow down their exporting prowess. The impacts in yuan were less than when converted to US dollars.

So far, China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at US$3.1 tln.

But Chinese bankruptcies are starting to emerge, and bad loans are piling up. It will only get worse, even if the virus emergency there is topping out. The economic impacts will only grow from here. And the Chinese authorities are fighting the economic impacts with "more debt" which can't end well. And official news accounts of "economic progress" are laughably unrealistic, undermining what must be huge efforts being made to stabilise a worsening situation. All eyes are now on domestic Chinese demand levels; a sharp fall will trigger another economic shock.

Key prices of some international commodities seem to be hanging in there, although others aren't. Iron ore prices haven't dropped and neither have those for (steel-making) coal. If anything they have firmed. And just like air-freight rates, shipping rates are rising sharply. It seem s that freight capacity is being removed faster than freight demand. But prices for copper, nickel and aluminium are all now falling.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 107,836 of officially confirmed cases, up +22% in a week. There are now 27,237 cases outside China, a rise of +2230 in one day. Although the numbers keep rising in the three hot spots of South Korea, Italy and Iran, they are now rising faster elsewhere. 19,763 are in those three countries but now 28% more are in many other countries. The American cases are growing quickly now. A week ago that outside-China number was 8558 so it is still trebling in a week. Inside China, the growth of reported cases has stopped.

In Australia, retail sales were weak in January, weaker than expected, dropping to a gain of just +2.1%, the slowest January year-on-year gain since 2005. This slowdown is concentrated in January which actually shrank, all due to bush fire and drought effects. None of this January decline is due yet to coronavirus.

Australia is working on an economic stimulus package to avoid its first recession almost 30 years.

In the US, consumer debt grew far slower in January than was expected. It was up +US$12 bln in the month to a record US$4.2 tln, an increment well below the December +US$21 bln and lower than the monthly average for the past year of +US$15 bln. It might be a sign American consumers don't think now is the time to raise their debt leverage.

US non farm payrolls rose by +273,000 in February and that was more than expected. But this data was collected in surveys in the first half of the month and so precede the sharp bite of the coronavirus fear effects outside China. It also displays outlier results. This last time an unusually large gain was reported, it was reversed with a sharp correction the following month. Their low participation rate (63.4%) made no progress. Hourly wage gains slipped again to +3.0% pa. Strong employment gains were noted in healthcare (+57,000), foodservice workers (+53,000), and government workers (+47,000) These three sectors accounted for about 60% of the February rise. Factory job levels slipped.

But a dramatic decline in long-term bond yields last week is scrambling the Federal Reserve’s recently updated playbook for counteracting a downturn. It also helps explain why officials’ calls for a stronger fiscal policy response could grow louder in the weeks ahead.

Wall Street was gripped with fear again on Friday and even the strong February US jobs report failed to ease the mood. Equity indexes started negative and ended down -1.7% on the day. The S&P500 ended last week, having been unable on three occasions to sustain any rally.

The bond markets are showing even more fear. Many commodities are weak although gold is firmer. Public bailout programs haven't been announced yet even though may investors thought they would by now. Now the worry is, when they come they will be inadequate. The NY Fed's overnight repo purchase activity is now at levels only before seen during the 9/11 emergency, and were at a record high on Friday. This level of support indicates the authorities are having trouble maintaining market liquidity.

The most spectacular move over the weekend was been the extreme risk aversion shown in the bond market. Demand is rocketing for the safety of Government benchmark bonds. The UST 10yr yield is now just under 0.77% which is a very sharp -15 bps drop from the previously record low 0.92% on Friday, and a stunning -35 bps dump from this time last week. Regular readers will know a -1 or -2 bps daily fall is a lot in this market. The rate curves are still in that strange transition behaviour we have seen for the past week. Their 2-10 curve is more positive at +26 bps. Their 1-5 curve has turned sharply positive at +19 bps. but their 3m-10yr curve is still negative, just less so at -2 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -5 bps for the week to 0.68%. The China Govt 10yr now at 2.69% and down -11 bps for the week. The NZ Govt 10 yr is down -11 bps for the week at 0.95%. The NZ and Australian rates also involve drops to unprecedentedly record low levels.

Gold has risen to be now at US$1,673/oz, a gain of +US$5. That means it jumped +US$101 in the past week, a rise in that time of +6.4%.

US oil prices are sharply lower at just over US$41/bbl and down more than -US$4/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also lower at just over US$45/bbl. And a long-standing informal deal between OPEC and Russia has collapsed after Moscow refused to support deeper oil cuts to cope with the sharp demand drop, and then OPEC retaliated by removing all limits on its own production. Apparently Russia is trying to knock out the US shale industry with low prices. If they succeed, junk bonds will also be a casualty.

The Kiwi dollar will start this week sharply higher, mainly on a sliding greenback, at 63.6 USc, up more than +1½c in a week. On the cross rates we are little-changed in a week at 95.6 AUc. Against the euro we also little-changed at 56.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now at 68.4 and a minor net gain.

Bitcoin has fallen hard this morning, down -8.8% from where we left it on Saturday. It is now at just US$8,292. Most of the fall has happened in the past few hours. Other cryptos have fallen harder. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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95 Comments

22
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Buckle up guys! We are in for one hell of a ride! Global recession on the way!

Today might test the metal of market traders. If there's one day that combines all the necessary ingredients for panic, it's today. How many trading rooms will have called their day-dealers in for a 6 am meeting today? Most, if they have any sense.

I thought the same about last Monday, to be fair.

Today, reminds me of '92, when the UK was under pressure from Soros et al, and 'something' was about to give with the pound and the ERM; what, no one knew. But I recall issuing the order "No live sterling prices today. Take orders only, and fill them as you can" ( we weren't cable bookmakers). But sure enough, one dealer didn't listen, and it cost us dearly when Lamont left the currency peg. Caught when overnight interest rates hit 46%, and then froze...

This week will be different (worse or better depending on your position) because this week the CDC will get a million test kits in circulation in the US and actual notified infection rates will explode, if that doesnt panic the American market nothing will.

How deep and how long are the questions.

There was always going to be a crest and fall, even for a piece of artificial hokum like GDP. What is more interesting, is what is going on with energy. The Saudis will be remembering '73 and the tip-over difference from '68. Shale hasn't turned a buck ever, and the Russians hold the biggest gas-tap in the world. Add in that the EROEI of US gas is so terrible, and that all energy is still being evaluated in $, which are themselves debt-issued and therefore requiring future energy (or ever-more existing-asset 'valuation' rises) to be repaid. So we are seeing a high-stakes game of poker, complete with feedback-loops (Saudi 'wealth' stored in western RE or shares for instance) by players who can see an end-game looming.

Perhaps we might see the US govt. bail out distressed oil frackers. (Shale bail?) Of course under the guise of "energy independence".

What's more important, some arbitrary numbers on a computer (money) or actual usable energy. Makes sense for them to do this if it's needed to keep the industry afloat.

I personally cannot wait to see all the small business owners vote for Labour in this year's election owing to their impending pro-business policies.

Nah they will still vote for their beloved Gnats

Nah surely not. They won't take the money and run.
You watch Morrinsville will #turnred and trend the hashtag #taxindapaidoffmyboat

Depression is now the highest probability IMO. Interest rates going to zero. Corporate debt. It's going to be one hell of a year.

"Technology is a key ally when you’re fighting an outbreak, Taiwan realized. So they leveraged the national health insurance database to create a smart system to warn citizens and keep an eye on the situation.

The database was integrated with the customs information to generate a pool of big data. This data generated real-time alerts based on people’s travel patterns. It used QR code scanning and online reporting of travel history and documented health symptoms to classify passengers’ infectious risks. Then, Taiwanese authorities acted based on what the data suggested — and took some pretty draconic precaution measures.

People with the lowest risk were issued fast travel clearance, but people with higher risk were likely to be quarantined at home, whether they liked it or not. "
https://www.zmescience.com/other/pieces/how-taiwan-managed-to-avoid-a-co...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

Wealthy Asian countries have done a superb job of limiting the outbreak using smart focused and vigorous controls, even though they had more initial exposure. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESf4LayUUAIwou_?format=png&name=medium
Rest of west is screwed due to their lax response - and will kill several times as many as it should have (hospitals overwhelmed in coming weeks) as a result.

Yep. It's good thinking.
I would go mobile too.

People are told to ring ahead when visiting GPs (without the background of why).
Let's make this first call ahead a video call and prelim check. Add to the Wellington Dr request/petition that virus reception centers be setup

Video call app in a medic wrapper could be pushed to every phone in the country.
Same an app could be pushed to every tourist phone at point of entry.

It would be brilliant for comms to HCWs too.

Current border control only interested in students not businessmen. Guys still coming in from China, with residency, straight to meetings. The lack of a plan, or any implementation, is going to be untidy.

Cases outside China were up by 4001 (4056 Inc China) yesterday and currently up by 3600 today (since 00:00 GMT), likely to come close to 5k today.

Best source for updates and data here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

France Germany and Spain are only a week to 10 days behind Italy. It's about to go 'Boom' everywhere.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESkCJHvUEAEhP9H?format=png&name=medium
South Korean systems seem to be limiting the spread - rate of increase hasn't changed in last week.

Poms have reduced their worst case mortality projections from 500K to 100K and the NY times now believes the death rate in developed western countries will be about the same as a severe seasonal flu outbreak.

UK: 60 million. 50% infected = 30million. So they are hoping for just 0.3% deaths from those that get infected (flu is 0.05-0.1%). That's spectacularly optimistic govt propaganda given data (unreliable Wuhan, but still) points to 7-8% dead once hospitals are overwhelmed in a few weeks time. Italy is currently at 5% - still not a particularly reliable figure given rapid spread but at least indicative of order of magnitude.

As if anyone needed any more proof that Boris and his cronies are in way over their heads...

@middle man ..........And that's IN ADDITION to ordinary old flu , which kills people every year .

This virus has killed 3000 people out of 100,000 known cases ......thats 3 % ...........in under 90 days .

March - People queuing up at supermarkets for toilet paper.
April - people queuing up at banks for cash.

It could happen.

Hopefully not at the Zimbabwe stage where you might as well use the cash for toilet paper.

March - Aussie women fighting each other in the isles of Woolies for loo paper.

People queueing at banks won't be the same problem it would have been before the banks instituted a 30-day break period for term deposits to mitigate that possibility...

May, June July, August and September - best ski season ever. Self Isolated people queue for ski lifts :)

But a dramatic decline in long-term bond yields last week is scrambling the Federal Reserve’s recently updated playbook for counteracting a downturn. It also helps explain why officials’ calls for a stronger fiscal policy response could grow louder in the weeks ahead.

The Federal Reserve has been trying to propagate two big lies about the economy. Actually, it’s three but the third is really a combination of the first two. To start with, monetary authorities have been claiming that growing liquidity problems were the result of either “too many” Treasuries (haven’t heard that one in a while) or the combination of otherwise benign technical factors.

The other one has been about this epically tight labor market, which, Jay Powell points out, should keep the US economy on track whatever any minor fallout from the first problem or anything else in between.

Putting those two together you end up with a completed recovery and economic boom. That’s the third lie. An awesome labor market which was given the space to materialize because the Fed fixed the financial system with four QE’s and trillions in bank reserves.

If you start questioning repo, especially the ridiculous previous explanation of “too many” Treasuries, you don’t see a fixed financial system at all. Link

The 3-month Treasury bill’s equivalent yield has plunged, absolutely plunged. It was 1.45% last Thursday. Today? All of 45 bps. A one-hundred bp drop in six trading sessions. One hundred. Six days.

Rate cuts, right? Sure, that’s the premise. Like eurodollar futures, the front end of the yield curve is saying that there are more of them coming. The Fed’s unscheduled fifty will be augmented by another fifty at the next FOMC meeting in a few weeks. If not sooner. Link

but their 3m-10yr curve is still negative, just less so at -2 bps.

How can this be right, given these Bloomberg quotes?

13
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just be thankful we dont have a dense population like many of the countries struggling with this.
maybe having a smaller population can be a good thing in times like this.
authorities are asking people to stay2- 6 metres from each other which is impossible in some countries
take note politicians a lot of us did not vote for a massive increase in population

28
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..but successive govts and business 'leaders' seem to think that we need to import more people..when it's blindingly obvious less is the answer. Our leaders are basically thick.

18
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It's instead of biting the bullet and enacting real, useful economic policy. Recent governments have relied on the short term sugar rush and the increase in nominal GDP to allow them to pretend they've done a great job economically.

A small, sustainable population is sufficient to maintain high living standards across the board (good social infrastructure and economic opportunities available to all).
However, given our current economic structure built on tourism, bulk agricultural export, standardised construction, etc., we needed all these low-wage arrivals to keep this sweatshops running while we import items of value from developing countries.

This virus could be the very straw that breaks the camel's back!

Not thick; they are self-interested.

25
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Having a smaller population/low population density is always a good thing...always...and especially in a time like this.

29
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Have to make it clear to politicians, cramming more and more people into NZ is totally unacceptable. The right have some sort of myopic cultist drive, to fill every empty space with another human, fulfilling their impossible obsession of eternal exponential growth. Meanwhile the left are too terrified of being called xenophobic racist, to find any balls needed to change direction either! Time for politicians to grow up!

China's manufacturing operations were paralyzed, not only because of the outbreak but also due to the forced quarantines the authority put in place as the countermeasure. China is now trying to find a middle ground so that it can resume bau while keeping the infection to an acceptable level. China will start exporting again. The real question is who is going to buy MIC if the West gets overrun by covid19? If this bug is to be here for a while, perhaps the only way to get out of the mess is through a Sino-America collaboration. It is likely that America will come out with a specific drug or even the vaccine to deal with the virus, while China needs to provide the world with the needed medical consumables (such as surgical masks).

It will not matter who comes up with the cure first, one thing you can guarantee is that they will leverage it for money and political gain, that's real life.

Israeli team seems the closest, imagine what they will want in return for their benevolence in giving away the cure with that corrupt murderous idiot in charge. Maybe his equally idiotic best pal in the US will benefit first

True, it is how international politics work. Some reports suggested that Beijing already sent a signal to Washington, suggesting they hold the key of the global supply of some critical medical consumables, which is true.

Most corporations around the world will be forced to rethink their 'eggs in one basket'-modeled supply chains. Could this be the 'phoenix moment' for local manufacturing in the West?
Surely, someone in Aussie sees opportunity in re-employing laid-off automotive engineers to produce TP in South Australia.

China virtually shut down to contain this thing, quite a heroic effort really and now we are going to see that it was all for nothing!

Europe, Iran, the USA and ourselves have totally dropped the ball and now its a Pandemic, unstoppable from this point IMO.

And what we will probably see is that China will start gaining infections from people travelling back into China...

Without immigration starting in about 1985 and as we know just going crazy, can you imagine the tax on ciggies tobacco and alcohol!. The politicians favourite revenue streams for so long. A couple of recent PM's did a "Nelsonian Eye" on immigration in the early 2010's and only got knighthoods, Horatio got a Peerage.

Economy damage has been done and repercussions of corona virus will change everything and depending how early it is controlled it can go from bad to worse.

More than economy consequences, one has to be more aware of health issues and hope that it does not spread outside China as it has done in Iran and Italy speialy for us in NZ (When thier was zero detection in NZ, we had a panic situation in end jan/early february and now with few confirmation is getting worse. Just imagine what will happen if it spreads in community (Cannot be ruled out) and many suburbs ot cities are shut down.

Normally is a a good tactic to buy on dips (Stocks) but not in present scenario where supply is also hit and beyond control at the moment and the same applies to housing sector for if it continues the way it is for another month - housing too will be hit as earing/jobs/market sentiment will take a hit.

It is advisable to wait and watch as no experts have any clue, how all this will unfold even the Fed and reserve banks along with governments and will trial and error till a solution to corona Virus is found.

I dont think anyone is going to give a crap about house prices in a couple of months time.

How about mortgagees & mortgagors in a mortgagee sale?

And banks.
*Knock-Knock*
"Who's there?"
"Your personal ANZ/Westpac/ASB/KiwiBank debt collector agent. Kindly deposit $120000 dollars within the next 48 hours to avoid home repossession. Thank you for understanding!"

Air NZ statement;

Air New Zealand suspends 2020 earnings guidance

Due to increased uncertainty surrounding the duration and scale of the Covid-19 outbreak, Air New Zealand has today announced that it will be withdrawing the full year 2020 earnings guidance it issued to the market on 24 February 2020 and reconfirmed at its interim results announcement on 27 February 2020.

Air New Zealand has taken numerous steps to mitigate the impact of reduced demand resulting from Covid-19, including reducing capacity on its Asia, Tasman and Domestic networks, redeploying its fuel efficient 787 Dreamliner fleet to drive operational efficiencies and using tactical pricing to stimulate demand on the impacted sectors. However, the airline now believes that the financial impact is likely to be more significant than previously estimated and with the situation evolving at such a rapid pace, the airline is not in a position to provide an earnings outlook to the market at this time. An update on earnings expectations will be provided when appropriate.

Over the course of the last week the airline has seen additional softness in demand with a decline in bookings across its network. The further spread of Covid-19 to countries outside of China, including New Zealand, has driven a downward shift in demand.

Chief Executive Officer Greg Foran says that it is increasingly clear that Covid-19 has created an unprecedented situation and it is difficult to predict future demand patterns.

“We have been continuously monitoring bookings and in recent days have seen a further decline which coincides with media coverage of the spread of Covid-19 to most countries on our network as well as here in New Zealand,” says Mr Foran.

In response the airline has implemented further capacity reductions to its network, which include extending the suspension of its Shanghai service through to the end of April, and additional consolidation of services across the Tasman, Pacific Islands and Domestic network in March and April.

As a result of these actions, Air New Zealand has reduced total capacity into Asia by 26 percent, and total overall network capacity by approximately 10 percent since the outbreak of Covid-19 started.

Like the vast majority of its industry peers, the airline is also pursuing a range of mitigations in response to the swift decline of demand. These include the deferral of non-urgent capital spend and non-critical business activity across operational and corporate functions.

Chief Executive Officer Greg Foran has voluntarily offered to reduce his base pay of $1.65 million by approximately 15% ($250,000) with the support of the Board, and Air New Zealand’s Executive team will extend their salary freeze that has been in place since May 2019. On top of this, the airline has implemented a hiring freeze for all roles that are non-critical and will offer operational staff the option to take unpaid leave in addition to managing annual leave balances.

“Air New Zealand is a strong and resilient business operated by a world-class team with deep experience having navigated prior shocks to our business and industry. While we have already made swift adjustments to our operations, we are prepared to take further actions to address the ongoing demand impact of Covid-19,” says Mr Foran.

Summary of Air New Zealand’s response since the Covid-19 outbreak
• Overall capacity reductions of approximately 10% across the network, including:
-Asia capacity reduction of 26% through June, including extension of Shanghai route suspension through April
-Tasman capacity reductions of 7% through June
-Pacific Islands capacity reductions of 6% through June
-Reductions across the Domestic network of approximately 4%, with a 10% to 15% reduction in March and April
•Various labour initiatives including a voluntary reduction in CEO pay, a hiring freeze for all non-critical roles and voluntary unpaid leave for operational staff
•Deferral of non-urgent capital spend and any non-critical business activity

For investor relations questions, please contact:
Leila Peters, GM of Investor Relations & Financial Planning
leila.peters@airnz.co.nz
+64 21 743 057 Kim Cootes, Investor Relations Manager
kim.cootes@airnz.co.nz
+64 27 297 0244

Ends.

Lack of insurance in the event of a pandemic means international travel is out of the question (perhaps exception of reciprocal countries..Aus and UK I suspect).
Who is going to risk having to foot the bill for hospitalization or forced self isolation in a foreign country when the scanner goes off?

Lucky for AIRNZ it has a shareholder with big pockets.

Lufthansa looking for government support.

If Air NZ needs government support, then it could be diluting for existing shareholders ...

True , but air NZ is very small can quickly adapt by mothballing planes and cutting routes, cutting staff or sending them home on part-paid leave ( this can be done under emergency powers enacted by Government ) .

And if called on to do so , Kiwis will use Air NZ in preference to Asian , African or middle eastern carriers .

Lufthansa is a monster business , as is British , not easy to turn , cut and stop routs and services .

Call it parochial if you like, but we need to look after our narrow self interests

Lebanon default. Argentina default. Venezuela default. Dollar debt rising. Expect DJIA to drop much further this week. Oil crashing. Anything else? Yes bond market chaos and confidence crushed. Debt needs earnings. When people cannot work then more defaults will plainly follow. The debt edifice is crumbling

@MIKEKIRK , IT DOES NOT STOP THERE .........

Greek technically bankrupt
Portugal ditto
Spain ditto
Italy ditto
Iran ditto
Turkey very close due to credit fueled growth in Q4 of 2019
South Africa very close (70%debt to GDP )
Brazil in real trouble (82% debt to GDP )
India facing impending economic crisis (70%)
Argentina (85%)
Egypt ( 87%)

Now some can service those debts , but many cannot , and worse much of the debt is in US$ and the debtors have weak currencies and weak forex earnings

we are collectively bankrupt
that's how a globalised economy works
all debt is ultimately energy based (or pegged to the Oil Barrel = US$)
all that credit & IOUs pays wages but also promises increases in available NET energy from where the last bit come from ...

..expect a flood of cash into NZ housing because it always goes up. Internationally recognised safe haven asset. True....

Lets be honest here nobody knows how bad this is going to get. There is however a threshold level like there is with so many things and if we surpass it the outcome is going to go from bad to really bad pretty quickly in an exponential way. The best thing that can happen is everyone pull their heads in and try and stay calm.

That reminds me of an interview I watched with a woman who survived a plane that crashed on landing in the UK some years back. The pilot came over the intercom when the damaged plane had come to a halt "Everyone stay calm and we'll get you off'.
The woman panicked; clawed her way over all and any passengers in front of her - men, women and children - who were standing in line to take their turn getting off and she got out through the escape door and ran across the tarmac just as the plane exploded in a fireball.
Had she not panicked, she along with everyone else who was standing calmly in line, would be dead.
Life, eh....

China can’t set monetary policy anymore without devaluing the yuan peg.

Comment I read the other day...

"What might seem as alarmist today may seem insufficient in 2 weeks time"

I dont want sound alarmist , but I have a not-so-good feeling about this virus that has come from eating things people should not be eating .

Roughly 3% of people who have contracted this virus have died .............of the 100,000 reported known cases, 3000 have died , and China is only reporting the deaths of those in hospitals.

Peasants who have gone home after New Year could be dying at home , and not be reported

And the remark that "Flu kills more people " is just stupid .

Flu continues to kill people at historic rates , this virus mortality rate is over an above the normal flu -related mortality rate

..you are so off the mark. For example, the death rate should be compared to reported cases about 3 weeks back. But a bit of research and you can find all this out for yourself.

@rastus .....fair enough , but the fact remains .............the death rate of 3,000 per 100,000 over ANY period is a worry .

The murder rate in the world is about 50 per 100,000 PER ANNUM , and that's alarming enough .

With this virus we are talking 3,000 per 100,000 in just 90 days .

And , the last time I checked , we treated murder quite seriously .

It looks like the death toll is going to spike up today.

As Italy reports 133 deaths in one day!!!

I told you ........ this is a big problem that may end very badly

Real Estate PR is on :

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/37653

Be prepared to hear news/analysis from so called experts to create FOMO in FHB despite no one knowing what the current situation, if not controlled may lead to (Hopefully should be fine but should one take risk with a million dollar house in this scenario unless having deep pockets). If it continues even so called developers and speculators will flee the market for now so Wait and Watch and be aware of false propoganda.

Seeing lots of SOLD signs around in Auckland.

So it seems the property market is trucking along quite nicely, oblivious to what is happening..... for now

Well I was told the case of a civil engineers' family who have just arrived from Spain being put up in a motel , cant find a decent rental in North Auckland so its little wonder that the market is bouyant as these high-earning skilled folk can afford decent housing in a 'normal ' market , if its available

What? There are plenty of really good rentals on the North Shore. Look over $600/week and the world is your oyster.

For now being the important bit. How many friends do you have to hear of taking a hit from"
a) self-isolation for two weeks for the entire family
or b) reduced hours due to supply or demand issues
or c) redundancy..

before you think hoarding cash and riding out the storm is a good idea?

The firm that handles logistics for stuff we import from China is in their formal communications with us telling of a more rapidly recovering transport network than is suggested by media reports. Deciding who and what to believe about the state of chinas internal supply system is difficult. Tracking of a recent container load order over coming days may throw some light.

From today's perspective we must acknowledge that, yes, China was reprehensibly late to admit that they initially had a problem with Corona virus, but I suppose you must admire the speed and organisation with which they acted once they admitted they had a problem; they had to be utterly ruthless and they were. After Sars, swine flue, Coronavirus, etc, China will have the opportunity to deal with its food hygiene problems once and for all, hopefully.

I would suggest that all airlines should be made to obtain the full itinerary of each passenger before accepting them on board a particular flight. Our government should make this mandatory as a condition of landing at our airports; why should airlines not shoulder some share of responsibility?

Iran's inability to deal with its Corona outbreak I would put down to Trump's embargoes over the past few years.

The last time Italy acted in a united way was when the dictator, Mussolini, ran the show prior to WW2. Italy is a real basket case.

This idiotic Government is proposing to construct "drive through covid clinics ", you know, like KFC ?

Birdbrains !

Or hare-brained ?

I would like to know which out-of touch-with the -real -world idiot in Taxinda's Cabinet came up with this daft idea.

Just how are they going to construct or erect these drive-through facilities within any realistic timeframe

It takes about 10 years for Mc Donalds to get a Resource Consent for a drive through burger joint , let alone actually build it , in an environment where we have a building skills shortage and a supply chain issue.

Its a farce

It's a good idea. One could use specified existing bus shelters. Husband rang the GP this morning for an appointment - not for flu symptoms or a cold... but the point is they didn't even ask the question regarding what he wanted to see the Dr. about. That's simply dumb. It's as if we have no pandemic protocols in place at all.

Prevention of spread is the only 'cure' at present. No action in that regard is daft.

Of course its a good idea , in a sensible country where you CAN erect drive through facilities in 24 hours without needing Resource Consent taking 10 years , and where a labour-force of skilled workers is readily available to erect the clinic(s)

And suitable for countries that are able to pre-fabricate the buildings and erect them on public open spaces like parks ( such as Auckland Domain ) in under 24 hours .

Not here , it will never work , we just dont have the capacity , the staff , the skills or the organisational ability to do this with any sense of speed or alacrity.

A full clinic purpose built for a drive-through ?

My bet is that it will not happen , ..............all we may end up doing is driving through a hospital parking lot with a hapless nurse taking your temperature in a windstorm or rainstorm possibly in the dark

For goodness sake - now you're saying the RMA will be to blame for our inability to manage the COVID-19 response. It's beyond comical, Boatman. Do you actually think that in a time of crisis the government of the day, no matter who it is, wouldn't just exempt such facilities from requiring RC?

But more to the point, there are an abundance of existing facilities that could be commandeered to provide such premises/facilities.

'Abundance of existing facilities that could be comandeered " for use as drive through clinics ?............. could you name just one such existing facility?

You really don't even need a facility. A portacom cabin with power supply for the fridges, a room or two for the workers to change, and store appropriate PPE/supplies, and a temporary canopy and pretty much any carpark could be turned into one.

South Korea is doing it and it is very effective

The last time I looked ............... we were not South Korea

Boatman it will not be cabinets idea. It will be that of the medical experts working on this. Save the criticism for when we hear that this govt is not following best advice.... or would you rather politicians design the response.

@Rastus ...........I doubt that anyone is actually "working on this " .

We cant even basic get things right , like paying doctors and nurses what they should be paid , let alone ensuring that mental health patients get basic help .

Now suddenly we are going to have this plethora of fully functional drive through clinics magically sprouting up all over the country ?

Do me a favour , get real .

In China they have used the army (the PLA) they have box-type mobile clinics in their armed forces ( which total around 2,500,000 people), and they have redeployed these , and we would not be able to do anything like this with our puny Medical corps.

So even at the most basic level we are not able to use a portable clinic , as we dont have anywhere near enough of them

Day of reckoning tomorrow for US junk bonds;

https://www.ft.com/content/c048d870-6138-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

maybe but even the NZX is still trading today above what it was on the 9th of September 2019.

Wrong ...the NZX ALLSHARE index is at 3600 right now , the last time it was this low was 4 years ago on 5 February 2016

Gold has just broken into the US $1700 territory.

Nice. Mining stock are cheap. They will also be benefiting from cheap oil...a major extraction cost, so get onto the ASX and get gold as a hedge if you haven't already. This is only the start.

I would not be buying gold either ..............my view is cash is king .

But I am no expert

.

Gold ETF’s are worth a look also.

BREAKING NEWS ................... 54 nurses in North Shore Hospital put into isolation

NZD now 0.617, after brief dip to 0.6116, started at 0.6356. Why the drop, the health workers put into self isolation?

And the ASX200 just hit 6% down for the day.. Glad i've got almost nothing in equities at the moment.

What time does Wall Street open today ?

Its not COVID 19 that's a problem ..............its the OIL price collapse that is a huge problem

We need to hold onto our seats , this is going to be a bumpy flight

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