Equity markets resume sharp retreat; US factory orders fall; air cargo capacity dives; China shows what's to come; UST 10yr yield at 0.72%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 61 USc; TWI-5 = 67.2

Equity markets resume sharp retreat; US factory orders fall; air cargo capacity dives; China shows what's to come; UST 10yr yield at 0.72%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 61 USc; TWI-5 = 67.2

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news official rescue efforts haven't allayed deep fears about the immediate economic situation.

Friday's +9% equity market bounce on Wall Street has been undone today - revealed for what it was, wishful thinking - with the S&P500 currently down -9% so far today, and falling. Update: The S&P500 ended trading in New York down -12%. The US Fed's rescue package, one called for and applauded by the US Administration, has had the opposite effect of shoring up confidence - it in fact undermined investor confidence. Markets are watching the cumulative impact of consumer and business decisions, none of which are positive as fear pervades all decisions.

A remarkable thing about the weekend US Fed move is that they fired as many bullets in one weekend day as they did over the whole of 2008. With sudden financial largesse like this, there are sure to be huge and unexpected distortions flowing around the world. We are in a monetary policy black hole.

Wall Street is following Europe and adding to the decline. European markets were down about -5% overnight. Yesterday, key Asian markets were down about -3%.

In the US, we are seeing the first of the regional factory surveys diving. The New York survey reported sharply lower levels similar to those last seen in the GFC. The collapse in new orders is a big worry.

Getting goods to market is now going to become a major problem for firms that have orders. The unprecedented shrinkage of passenger travel by air has removed vast amounts of air cargo capacity. Approaching 200,000 flights have been cancelled in the past six weeks and the remaining capacity is focused on urgent medical supplies. Given there are about 100,000 flights per day globally, and that the reduction has been sudden and concentrated in the past two weeks - and is growing - the situation will be very tough very quickly.


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Will the rest of the world be 'saved' by China's re-emergence of the other side of the virus emergency? It will have some impact, but nowhere near enough to 'save' the US, or Europe. But it might be  an ameliorating factor for Japan, and important for New Zealand.

China's February industrial production was down -13.5% year-on-year compared to the usual rise of more than +6% pa. China's retail sales were down -20.5% on the same basis, a shift from +8% rises. These are enormous changes striking at the heart of the Chinese economy. It is unlikely that this data will be any better in March. But as big as these falls are, they still have their economy ticking over - things did not come to a complete stop. And we are seeing returning export activity from New Zealand to China.

But in February, Chinese home price growth stalled, and 19 major cities had zero new home transactions in February. None.

The thing about these sharp drops; these are the sorts of changes the rest of the world is looking at in March and April. It is going to get much more ugly than most in the West are assuming. Monetary policy can't save us from that.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 175,300 of officially confirmed cases, up +54% in a week. There are now 94,240 cases outside China, a rise of nearly +20,000 in one day as the numbers keep on jumping. The new hotspots are Spain (up 8x in a week), Germany (up 5x in a week) and the USA (up 6x in a week). In the rest of the world, the number of reported cases has quadrupled in a week. Globally reported deaths are now approaching 7000.

The UST 10yr yield is falling today, down almost -20 bps from yesterday and resuming its downward track. It is now at 0.72%. Rate curves are still sharply positive as short pricing dives. But their 2-10 curve is a little less positive at +45 bps. Their 1-5 curve has also turned much less positive at +24 bps. while their 3m-10yr curve is still out at +59 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -7 bps now at 1.02%. The China Govt 10yr is up +3 bps at 2.74%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also very sharply lower, now at 1.01% and down -19 bps.

Gold keep falling. It is down -US$27/oz today to US$1,503/oz. It no longer operates as a price hedge against uncertainty.

US oil prices have dropped sharply today, down another US$3/bbl to just under US$29/bbl with the Brent benchmark just under US$30. Vanishing demand is accentuating the Saudi/Russia fight and they seem to have lost control of it.

The Kiwi dollar starting today with a bounce higher. It is now 61 USc. On the cross rates however we are have leapt against the Aussie dollar which is still getting marked down. We are now at 99.4 AUc, a rise of almost +1c in a day and at that level we are just a whisker off its all time modern high and very near parity. For Kiwi sellers of AUD, we are well past parity. Against the euro we are little-changed at 54.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now at 67.2 winding back some of the 2020 overall devaluation.

Bitcoin, like gold, is also lower, down to US$5,014, a fall of -5.3% since this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

185 Comments

Good old USA, they've moved on from guns and toilet paper.. #bankrun

Someone mentioned starting this again i think its a great idea :P
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/recession-job-loss-tally

Looking at that. AirNZ only cut about 300 jobs, they are talking 11x that already.

Better dust of those gardening skills, and dig over the back corner of the section (if you have one).

Also with China, who's to say that they don't have a second wave of infections once they relax the lock downs. That much humanity living that close together ( not that you mentioned China, I just thought I'd put all my thoughts in one post - in these times you have to make savings where you can)

That's right. If you don't have immunity, it doesn't matter when you are exposed. Now or in a years time when people in contact with Wuhan virus carrying people are not being isolated any more.

in fact better off getting it now while hospital beds are still available ; could you spare some virus ?

Why you must act now!

a lesson possibly too late for This Government but it makes a very good read:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-...

The government already acted on Saturday.

REINZ's loss of 3900 looks brutal among all those 10-50 job losses per company. Let's hope REA's learned their lesson and built up savings instead of buying Porsche Cayennes and Audi RS's.

35
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If you think house prices can never go down in NZ you may soon be very surprised.

All that is required is for credit to evaporate.

And the elephant in the room is that we still do not have any kind of deposit guarantee scheme on Kiwi Island.

When this storm has passed we probably won't even need one anymore.

Don't worry, guys.

Ashley Church says there is no need to worry.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/37695

12
up

Mark Me Me Richardson on TV3 trying to back peddle from his "Nothing to see here re the Virus attitude."
Cringe tv better than any reality show.

I don't watch any of these things on tv. The presenters are given free reign to put their personal opinions in there. I disagree a with almost all of the PC stuff they a spout on about.I don't think this person is the worst.

Lol, so he believes everything else can crash and the housing market is immune.

This is going to have a huge impact on jobs and revenue for the self employed. Those with high DTIs and have an income hit will be under pressure

He may believe that the government and central should step in and have the current and future taxpayers prevent any loss to property. Or feel entitled to this happening.

Much like the ironically named Taxpayer's Union has come out yesterday basically suggesting that taxpayers should buy shareholders' shares at the current price then sell them off later so folk can buy in again, essentially asking to be insulated from the risk of their own investment decisions. They don't actually appear too representative of taxpayers on the whole.

I've said it before, but I'll say it again...

" Live by the sword, die by the sword"

It lools like China and Russia are sharpening their knives.

Wait, this time he actually said: "house prices may go backward" as a tiny little sidenote hidden in that wall of gibberish. Note how he didn't say "may go down". Nope. The word "down" is forbidden by the Church.

There's always an out.....

11
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Church is a buffoon. I love that when talking about the impacts he thinks it will be about "less people attending open homes". We are about to receive a global economic shock (possibly on par with 1929) and he thinks it will only impact NZ if we get widespread infections here? Wake up, the economic impacts will be felt by every country irrespective of the localized virus spread.

He doesn't know what he doesn't know ...

And he is too arrogant to actually learn what he doesn't know.

I couldn't agree more.
Following this shock we should set up a nice little isolated village for the likes of Church, Alexander, Hosking, Richardson et al.

Any ideas on what we should name such a village?

.

Nymad - with the attitude of the people around me re house prices you could call it Auckland Minor and personally I would approve it being set up on the Auckland Islands.

I wouldn't. That place has had a hard enough time ecologically as it is. How about White Island instead? After all, that's one of the other attributes they all have in common...

14
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Whatever it is called, there's going to be real competition for the village idiot each year

Tothe Point

Y Vil-lage

Could it be a house called The Man2-sion instead?

Mr Church really only does have one mode. If prospective home buyers are taking his advice it may well turn out to be very very irresponsible of him. We only need to look to what is happening in other countries with suspension of events and schools including Australia that we are heading for an inevitable lock down.

Don't question the ProPeRtY CLoCk

.

Well look at what has been happening in China due to the virus. Quote from today's report: "But in February, Chinese home price growth stalled, and 19 major cities had zero new home transactions in February. None".

14
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Ill volunteer to be the upvote for anyone that believes that this is the big reset for the can kicking thats been happening since the dotcom crash, if someome would like to volunteer to be the downvote for the opposite view by saying so in a reply.

That is the thing - I don't think this is the reset. This a fear based panic. As mentioned above so long as there is credit that is all it is. When credit stops then be worried.

Don't want to rain on your parade but credit ceases to exist during deflation.

How long can credit run when half of the world isn't working for months..

Now this is the fear I am talking about. Currently there is no evidence that "half the world" will not be working for months. It is possibly true that this will eventuate but is not guaranteed - if enough people believe this then it could be a self for-filling prophecy.

"Currently there is no evidence that "half the world" will not be working for months."

I would argue two things that would suggest otherwise

1. The closure of schools will force many parents to stop working. UK has just closed schools for 12 weeks. That is over 7 millions kids who now need to be looked after. Assuming 1 parent per 2.5 kids. The workforce has just dropped 3.5 million workers.

2. The closure of all workplaces. Look at Italy, Norway, Spain, and France. USA and Canada likely to follow shortly.

Granted some can work from home, but reality is that is not the majority.

3. Trade slow down. Even if you are not on lock down, orders, supply chain drying up.
And that is the forst round before mutated virus returns as per the Spanish Flu.
I'm guessing over half of the developed world not working for at least a month. Remember the late 1980's crash and trying to buy a part and you had to order it. Very little in the way of stock on the shelves and that slowed progress up massively.

So currently it is indeterminate how long people "may" be out of work. It may be months it may not. I don't doubt there will be an impact but thinking like this is not helpful. Fear was useful on the savanna but no so much today. Just saying.....

I think it is very safe to say months. Most places around the world appear to be shutting down for 8-12 weeks. That is 2-3 months. Not to mention the time it will take to get fully back up and running.

Fear is very much useful today. It is what leads us to prepare.

Do you really want to be solely reliant on the NZ Govt to cover your A$$ in a crisis?

So in other words you are making an assumption that the world will shut down for 2-3 months. While some stores (and countries) are closing for several weeks at present - it doesn't mean that that will extend to several months. The UK seems to have abandoned even attempting to control the problem - which is a problem in itself and will most likely mean the country will be isolated by the rest of the world as a precaution (fortunately it is an island).

Prepare or go headless chicken (toilet paper comes to mind...) - there is a difference. The thing is you are still relying on the government to a certain extent - to maintain law and order etc unless you intend to head for the hills.

Prepare for the worst but hope for the best.
Fail to plan, plan to fail!
You do what you think is needed and we'll do what we think is needed.

I'm not saying don't plan - there is a difference between planing and headless chicken however.

We're not doing the headless chicken, jusr yarning over the possibilities.

The reason why some countries aren't closing schools is that grandparents would be more likely to end up looking after the kids. Which risks the kids spreading it to their more vulnerable grandparents. Closing schools could be a very dangerous vector for spread, without even considering the economic impact, or that medical staff can't stop working but would end up with kids at home not being looked after (not entirely unusual when I was a kid).

This is the giant elephant in the room.

Working parents are going to be expected to look after/teach their kids and still work from home to keep the job/income going.

In Melbourne parents keeping kids at home, so example given is 3 kids turned up to home room.

Billeting of in home child supervision will be required. Should be a tonne of out-of-work singles, or uni students that can do it for a few months

Look at the falls in economic activity in China when they went into lockdown. Now look at the number of countries where the spread of the virus will necessitate a similar lockdown.

When 20 countries see this kind of fall in economic activity at the same time it will have a cascading impact across other economies.

While true in the short term it doesn't have to be a long term problem.

Whats the difference a reset is a reset regardless of the cause. Really all that anyone is interested in at this point are the impacts not the name you try to pin on it like the WHO. Im focused on the timeline and what events trigger the next phase. Its the uncertainty thats leading to fear and thats very unpredictable.

Can it be the 'great reset' if there is no fundamental change to the embedded economic theory that drives Government policies and bank practices?

Perhaps it too early to say Murray.

So this isn't the great reset?

Well since Trump giant bazooka failed to rise to the occasion he might be forced to keep it in his pants and actially rethink policy (with help from a grownup). Same goes for the Fed.

I suspect a fear based politics is all the US knows. I don't doubt the US administration has made things worse but it doesn't mean the entire world has to act like headless chickens.

I guess if it's not the big reset it'll be another round of massive borrowing from future generations' standard of life, to allow people right now not to suffer too much?

Nice basic lesson about debt. Debt is forever regardless of asset values.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-dominoes-fall-world-insolvent

As net worth crashes below zero, debts remain.
Anyone expecting the financial markets to magically return to January 2020 levels once the pandemic dies down is delusional. All the dominoes of crashing market valuations, crashing incomes, crashing profits and soaring defaults will take down all the fantasy-based valuations of assets: stocks, bonds, real estate, you name it.
The global financial system has already lost $100 trillion in market value, and therefore it's already insolvent. The only question remaining is: How insolvent?
Here's a hint: companies whose shares were recently worth $500 or $300 will be worth $10 or $20 when this is over. Bonds that were supposedly "safe" will lose 50% of their market value. Real estate will be lucky to retain 40% of its current value. And so on.
Where is the bottom? There is no bottom, but nobody dares say this. Companies with negative profits have no value other than the cash on hand and the near-zero auction value of other assets. Subtract their immense debts and they have a negative net worth, and therefore the market value of their stock is zero.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/

Even those who do have lots of money in the market can be consoled by the fact that lower prices today mean higher future returns – not exactly a disaster story. Link

I have read alot of bad takes in the past few weeks, this is up there.

'@MarcGrbesa
Futures are down because non bank market makers are insolvent this evening and the Fed's action didn't help them as they run complex portfolios but with tons of leverage ie 7-20x so it doesn't take much to wipe them out. Now its all about cleaning up ie selling assets globally.'

I also saw that. Have you seen any confirmation of this? Or the organisation(s) involved?

15
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I like zerohedge, he does some good statistical analysis but is a bit alarmist.

I find it sad that if there is a serious recession, the media, history books, politicians, the financial elite will attribute it to the covid-19 pandemic. I do not believe this is true. I believe it’s been a long time coming and a result of the debt bubble, which has created bubbles in assets, in the stock market in all sorts of weird and wonderful financial systems.

This pandemic would only have been the trigger for an unstable system resulting from the low interest world we live in. The mismanagement of central banks in continuing to lower interest rates is akin to throwing gasoline on a fire, even if they manage to extinguish it this time, it’s going to flare up again and be even more aggressive.

Averageman, before I started raving about Deflation I was raving about Net Worth. Why is this so hard to understand for people? Honest question.

Here is one for you to chew on Guwop. The quantity theory of money, M.V=P.Q, doesn't' account for interest. I put it in. (M.V)+i=P.Q

Good question. I think there is a generation that has never see really tough times, and there are the narcissist sociopaths to in their own delusion just think is all pink fluffy unicorns in their own debt stacking greatness. Debt leverage is fantastic on the way up, but it is absolutely heartless on the way down. Now its global roller coaster time.

"Why is this so hard to understand for people?"

Their key underlying belief is that property prices do not go down by much. This belief has led to a willingness to take on high levels of debt.

These are some reasons given in the mainstream media, property market commentators, property market promoters, bank lending promoters masking as bank economists, real estate agents, property market mentors & other sources as to why property prices in Auckland will not fall by much and that there is a low probability that property prices will fall dramatically:
1) during the GFC, house prices in Auckland fell only 7-10%
2) over the past 50 years, house prices in Auckland have averaged 7.2% per annum (or commonly referred to as house prices doubling every 10 years). This trend can be expected to continue into the future - https://youtu.be/Agp9xFWoBX4?t=172
3) there is a shortage of underlying housing in Auckland, so property prices won't fall by much - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/97513/auckland-councils-chief-econom...
4) there is a growing population which means that there will be more demand for houses - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...
5) we have inward immigration which means more demand for houses
6) Auckland is an attractive city with an attractive lifestyle - that makes it desirable and attracts foreigners to move to Auckland and hence raise the demand for houses
7) lower interest rates are supportive of rising house prices
8) lower interest rates make debt servicing easier for borrowers
9) Low interest rates were also forcing retirees and those nearing retirement to look for investments that would produce income, such as rental property. "Plans of the baby boomers to retire and live off a conservative yet well-yielding portfolio have evaporated with low interest rates," he said. "[They] are seeking assets and buying investment properties. They are also seeking assets they can hold and live off of for three decades in retirement rather than just 15 years given advances in health and medicines." - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-auckland...
10) we mustn't forget either the vested interests in ongoing stability. No government, central bank or trading bank with mortgage exposure wants materially lower house prices. Nor does an incumbent Beehive want falling house prices going into an election campaign https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110499233/think-house-prices-are-going-...
11) the economy is doing well, with low unemployment - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110499233/think-house-prices-are-going-...
12) there has been insufficient construction of new builds to meet the housing shortage - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...
13) there are high construction costs to building a house. House prices cannot fall below their construction cost. - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...
14) people don't sell their houses at a loss - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...
15) continued inflation means that house prices will continue to rise in the future
16) The fact is, debt levels have barely changed from the beginning to the end of those 10 years, compared to GDP levels, compared to household assets, compared to household disposable incomes. And much more importantly, debt servicing is very much easier now, an item that is almost universally overlooked. We are not pushing out to unsustainable levels now, and even if they creep up a little, we are far from that point. https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/95894/if-you-think-new-zealands-house...
17) in aggregate household debt servicing is low in New Zealand - currently at just under 8% of disposable income of households - https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-household-debt
18) property market participants & commentators who have been correct in their predictions about recent property price trends have more credibility and hence their predictions of upward prices are believed by a wider audience (such as Ashley Church, Tony Alexander, Ron Hoy Fong, Matthew Gilligan, etc). - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-auckland...
19) previous warnings about a house price crash have been wrong - property prices have continued rising upward significantly since these warnings were given, so there is little reason to believe these warnings.(such as Bernard Hickey) - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-auckland...
20) its unlikely Auckland prices collapse. I think the main two reasons though are:a) Affordability has been this bad, and worse, in the past and it only resulted in about a 10% drop. b) The number of homes built over the last decade has been too low and will take some time to recover - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/100670/housing-market-continues-hibe...

"Then the speculative asset bubbles re-inflate, and the household takes on more debt in the euphoric expansion of confidence to buy a larger house, expand the family business and enjoy life more."

Remember those deposit recycling / equity release techniques used to finance additional purchases of investment property?

The driving forces that drove the GFC are different to the driving forces emerging with the Covid-19 Pandemic

In 2008 the behaviour of the Merchant Banks and the bailouts by Central Banks, produced outcomes and actions that still overhang today

In 2020 it's the behaviour of the masses

The intellectuals are dishing out the same medicine. TARP. QE. Interest Rate cuts. Didnt work 2008. Will they work this time?

10
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On the money. This shock is bigger than the GFC and central banks have used all their ammunition. No way it works, it'll just distort the market and cause even more volatility.

And meanwhile, back in the real world... you know, the one where we have to blast rocks hundreds of metres below ground to get oil,..where plastics are replacing fish...where topsoils are depleted,...where drought and bushfires persist,........ where the rivers are filthy,...

Ask yourself, where does turning on the debt spigots take us to?

https://medium.com/@moritzlaw/work-resumption-plan-cancelled-in-hubei-ep...
Work Resumption Plan Cancelled in Hubei, Epidemic is Not Under Control in China

I was very skeptical of the claims they were 'past it'

China have screwed the world with the scale and depth of the misinformation they have been publishing about Wuflu - meant that world didn't take it seriously enough. First case now known to be Nov17. Typical 2 week 10x seen elsewhere means there were 10000 infected before Wuhan was locked down - not 200 claimed, but likely a lot more. Probably a million or more infected in China during peak - and it's everywhere there now waiting to pop its ugly head up again should everything reopen. Chinese no longer trust what their govt says given obvious lies, so are (where possible) still staying home.

Here’s the thing - Italy has 1/20th the population of China. So, 21,000 cases in Italy should equal 420,000 cases in China. The CCP couldn’t lye straight in bed if they tried.

This logic makes no sense - there are too many variables to just compare populations to predict number of infected people. I have no idea if the China data is accurate, but the recent evidence suggests they're doing a pretty good job of getting on top of things. We'll see if Europe and the US does as well in the next few weeks.

Yeah and tianamen square didnt happen...

Agreed, having set a frame to reduce transmission, the crisis management part that examines data sees and incorporates feedback is important.

A poor out come today would be a "set and forget" response. This was the concern regarding the CT view of time to politically change society.

Expect Putin to relax on the preasure as much as The States did when Russia was in trouble.
An eye for an eye!

Could this be the event that makes the Republican party turn pro-American again and anti-Russian, though? Perhaps this could increase nationalist solidarity in the USA.

Hard to shout USA USA when you have no job and under military lock down. I don't think The States is going to come out of this well.
China and Russia are going to put the boot in and let it all fall apart. Leys face it Socially and economicly The States has been falling apart for a long time now.

Bet the US finally get socialized health care - one ray of light amongst all the dark.

On the other hand, they have banded together well in wars. If they succeed in creating a "them" to be "us" against, they may well be able to band together as a country. The one thing they have in spades (in addition to weapons) is patriotic fervor.

But it'll depend in part on whether the Republicans can afford (personally) to turn against Russia.

I dont think they are tough enough to go the distance now days. They fall apart when the body bags started rolling in the Vietnam days.
They are already very divided, Trump haters / lovers. No common ground and basically a 50/50 split.

interesting perscpective on the 1957 Asian flu pandemic. "Worldwide, this flu strain killed somewhere between 1 and 2 million people. More than 100,000 died in the U.S. alone. And yet, to the best of my knowledge, governors did not call out the National Guard, and political panic-mongers did not blame it all on President Eisenhower. College sports events were not cancelled, planes and trains continued to run, and Americans did not regard one another with fear and suspicion, touching elbows instead of hands."
https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic

Yeah, funny how people expect the standard of living to improve in the future and mean that things we accepted in the past because they largely had no alternative or control over them are no longer acceptable because we do have alternatives and control over them.

DJI down 11.5%. This is it. Today is the day.

Trump doing the same thing he tried on Friday, speaking before close to try and buy some PR with a late-day rally. It's not working.

The Fed, BOJ, RBNZ...all intervened yesterday. And the net effect was nil. The market is back where it was in 2016, having compacted all that delicious cheap central bank money since into nothingness. The taxpayers still have the liability on the national balance sheet. But the thing we bought with it is gone.

The banks must increase term deposits or they can't lend.

Banks use money from mum and dad depositors to lend out.

People who say banks create credit by purchasing securities are peddling nonsense. .

10
up

Come again? I think it’s pretty common knowledge on interest.co.nz that banks lend “bank credit” and not deposits.

Ok Yvil. Yesterday you said anyone commenting on Interest should financially contribute. Just confirming I have done that.

The beginning of the end of the globalisation as we know it - "Designed in the United States, Made in the People's Republic"

Was probably going to happen to some extent anyway. Rapid improvement in machine learning makes increasing swathes of manufacturing automateable.

If you don't mind a bit of profanity ...
Read this from CACTUS CATE
https://asianinvasion2019.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-socialists-wet-dream.html

Sums it up nicely - a bit incoherent in places where she gets excited

"Sorry, the page you were looking for in this blog does not exist."

It has been taken down - somebody got to her

Everyone is a socialist in a recession.

A lot of people in NZ have made a lot of money off selling houses in the past 3 years. This has been at the expense of FHBs dipping deeeeep into their pockets, or holding out for a rainy day such as today to begin to lower prices again. Time will tell whether holding or going all in was the better strategy in this economic poker.

32
up

That's the problem - it shouldn't be a game of poker. Housing is a necessity not an asset for speculative poker.
Once it isn't, then is the time to buy, and that is with property prices WAY below those you see advertised today.

Well said mate. People should purchase a home when they are the appropriate stage of their life. They have job stability and are settled in an area and have a sufficient deposit. But due to stupid asset inflation it became a game of "rush in before you are ready, or miss out".

Unfortunately, a lot of those people are about to find out they weren't ready.

This is why, at times, I have had a short temper with the landlord class. Many have good intentions, but when they own multiple properties, they have been pushing up prices and making life very difficult for young families who simply want to buy a home for stability and raise a family. They don't want that asset to be a speculative gamble - which is what the greed of many has turned our housing market into.

In my opinion its next to fall - and I've been saying on here for years now that I think it could fall 50% - just didn't know when/or what would be the trigger. This could be it.

Rubbish!
Investors don’t force the prices up of houses at all, quite the opposite.
The owner occupiers are the ones who pay more .
Investors buy for return and generally always want to buy under true market value

You mean investors buy houses that they would never want to live in themselves?

extortionate rents need to be dealt with, it's collapsing a generations standard of living. RB sets interest rates to low and you guys make off like a robbers dog, it's very destructive in the real economy.

Well, this requires good quality thinking and morals in society and governance, prepared to manage housing as part of society as had been done in the post-war generations in NZ. When housing was part of the foundations of society and access to affordable housing was seen as a good that would enable families to then focus on being productive.

Not as a speculative investment vehicle for a few generations at the expense of Kiwis before and after.

As Buffett says 'be fearful when others are greedy' - and there's been a lot of greed in the NZ housing market post GFC. I could see prices falling back to 2008 levels.

That's arround a 50% drop. She'll be ugly out there!

As of this moment New York is drowning
the Presidents Plunge Protection Team has given up

So not the dreaded 3,000 point apocalypse today then - but 2,999!

It wanted to keep going, but it suddenly pulled back 0.4% in the last minute. Symbolic intervention?

The US Fed's rescue package, one called for and applauded by the US Administration, has had the opposite effect of shoring up confidence -latest Fed TOMO/POMO graphic evidence.

Emergency Fed Repo Fiasco: Funding Markets Remain Frozen After Dealers Balk At $500BN Operation

Inert reserves locked on the Fed's balance sheet are no substitute for actual reserves in the real world.

The QE Market Meltdown - Currency Inelasticity

I have been aware this meltdown has been coming for well over 3 years , and said as much , and acted accordingly by exiting the NZX and ASX , .

Recently I was thinking I did this maybe too soon .

I expected nothing more than a huge correction in asset prices, but the size and depth of this fall has even surprised and shocked me .

This rout has gone way too far , and it does not look like its going to stop anytime soon .

Is there a hiding place Boatman? I suspect OBR and negative interest rates will shortly give cash a haircut as well.

Exactly - we're in capital preservation mode. He who loses the least capital, wins (or perhaps is 'better off' would be a more appropriate term than win).

Bonds go up when interest rates fall, so if that's what you are expecting ..

theres a real gap in peoples understanding about how its all or nothing for the economy
its doesn't shrink (for long) without imploding
theres a reason central banks have been throwing EVERYTHING at deflation
capitalism requires growth in consumption & resource use
otherwise it doesn't function

take this....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120302507/coronaviru...

"It would appear that the agricultural sector will get through this relatively unscathed. Farmers are basically self-isolated all year round anyway.
From an economic perspective, the world still needs to eat and it looks as if China's demand will come to the rescue of our agri sector once again."

No mention of how they would pay ...

it just might take some time, the US hamburger market could stall if people stop going to Macas, In & out etc.

https://www.beefcentral.com/trade/export/covid-19-extended-blank-sailing...

In the meantime it is so dry here, the 1ml today isn't going to make a difference the damage from this drought will be with us for the rest of the year.

Just asked a mate in the States, he said the beef market is a train wreck.

Why?

I'd imagine it's supply side, will ask him

Ok, he said beef has flown off shelves box prices are up but futures have been hammered, so basically they are all in wait and see mode, and worried about next season.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=LC

Container shortage
https://www.beefcentral.com/trade/export/covid-19-extended-blank-sailing...

They are going no meat burgers etc.

Um, by swapping mass produced plastic trinkets for milk. duh!

I thumbs upped the comment but it’s not capitalism that requires perpetual growth and resource use:
Capitalism - an economic and political system in which a country's trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit, rather than by the state.
The required perpetual growth is from our monetary system and inflation targeting. The inflation Targeting has increased asset prices by more than they are worth making them susceptible to “value” drops should our financial system have a shock like we are. It’s the funny money that’s is and has been the issue since the 70’s and 80’s.

positive return on capital is whats required
cant have capitalism without profits
which requires an increase in energy surplus (to underwrite profit)…
When we hit soft limits in energy surplus (70s), we added leverage and fake funny money growth to keep the show on the road…

Now a collapse in debt quickly becomes a collapse in supply chains

Why does profit require an increase energy surplus? That would be required for a perpetual growth scenario (like we have) but isn’t intrinsically linked to capitalism in itself. Again, it’s our monetary system that relies on an ever increasing money supply, not capitalism.

without the increased energy surplus, you get inflation only (devaluation of existing money claims)
ie profit is an increase of (monetary) claims over what (physical) goods the market can deliver in the future...
If there isn't an increase in the physical goods available, all monetary claims eventually devalue

I disagree with your definition of profit but I can see how you say what you say if you assume your definition. Same issue with your definition of capitalism, you’ve added an assumption that both require perpetual growth which again, isn’t inherently part of either.
Profit - a financial gain, especially the difference between the amount earned and the amount spent in buying, operating, or producing something.
There are two systems at play here, capitalism (not that what we have is actual capitalism) and our monetary system. The monetary system is the driver of perpetual growth whereas capitalism is the distribution and control of profits.

My whole life I've heard people deride whatever small political party was advocating printing "funny money" at the time.
And yet that has been the monetary policy that's been run over that whole time but people refuse to see it.

absolutely
always under the guise of "once we lift our productivity" …

its worth noting that without the funny money largesse, debt collapse would have kicked in long ago
Chinas credit card kicked in the last 15 years to keep things on track ...

“ With sudden financial largesse like this, there are sure to be huge and unexpected distortions flowing around the world. We are in a monetary policy black hole.”
There are already huge distortions with our previous financial largesse. This is just par for the course but over a shorter timeframe.

Shipping freight is out of kilter as well.

According to my source, there is a shortage of containers in Europe because they are still all parked on the wharf in China and other ports.

Plus what containers they do have are now hard to move because the ships are also all parked in China and are not going to come back empty just to pick up from Europe, or at least not at someone paying the extra cost.

How are people's "Growth" or "Aggressive" KiwiSaver funds doing? What kinds of percentage losses are you looking at (on paper)?

Do the (highly paid) managers of these funds mitigate losses by cashing out, or do they tend to ride the falls all the way to the bottom?

My KiwiSaver is a "growth" fund and it looks like 14% down over the last two weeks.

Zachary, 14% seems to be pretty light.
I would say most growth funds in sharemarkets will drop by at least 40%.
True balances won’t be currently being shown or it will create more panic if that is possible.
This is going to affect first home buyers dramatically

I would think that most largely have their hands tied by the funds they have defined. A growth fund is XXX equities, YYY debt, etc, and not to be changed because the manager gets cold feet.

Members can change, though, e.g. swap from growth to conservative. In fact our plan sent out a memo last week trying to discourage people from doing this...

I'm in an aggressive fund, had just over $40k in my kiwisaver two weeks ago, now I have $32k. I understand it's not constantly updated with the fund unit values so it could be even worse than that, but thats a ~20% drop. I'd say they are riding this one all the way to the bottom.

My Sharesies, which is all in high risk managed funds has dumped by 25%, cashed out most of it 2 weeks ago. Claiming the win.

Ray Dalio’s thoughts on events - based on what he/his researchers are looking at, things could be worse than what I was previously thinking:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/implications-hitting-hard-0-interest-rate...

I would recommend a thorough read of Michael Reddell's two March 16 articles.

In the latest one, he lays out an approach - radical, in his own words - to coping with the crisis, with four main aims (his numbering goes awry - ignore it):

What it is designed to do is (a) share the inescapable) losses fairly, if inevitably a bit crudely, without removing all risk from individuals or firms (b) support the existing level of credit and a secure basis on which existing banks could lend to cover shortfalls, (d) dramatically cut servicing burdens (and returns to depositors) as is normal in a deep recession ,and e) support/create confidence in an absolute commitment to keep medium-term inflation up at around 2 per cent, avoiding seeing real interest rates rising into a savagely. deep and at least somewhat prolonged recession and deflationary shock.

In the earlier one, he lambasts Orr for his lack of depth and general (as he sees it) unfitness for office, and the MPC for the yes-man approach to NZ monetary policy.

Interesting times indeed....

NZX down sharply at the open, unsurprisingly. Will be interesting to see what the govt announces today. I'm thinking it better be huge.

10
up

they should let the market do it's stuff, same as interest rates, keep govt's thieving fingers out of the free market, don't socialise losses.

I agree they shouldn't be propping up asset prices, or at least that shouldn't be the goal. But the coming cash crunch, insolvencies, and job losses are something that need to be addressed so that we can come out the other side of this.

if they bail risk takers out, they will just take bigger risks knowing govt has their back. I don't think they can do much with demand collapsing, it just is what it is, just get economy up and running asap. Distorting markets is always a bad idea.
China's economy is built around exports, they must be terrified.

"risk takers" being NZers with jobs? getting the economy up and running is exactly what I'm suggesting.

If the government provides wage subsidies, this could be seen as socialising losses as the payments may go towards covering rent payments and therefore shielding property investors and property prices

It's a fine line, I agree. But it's hard to see how allowing major insolvencies and job losses, in places that were viable before and will be viable again after the crisis, is advantageous.

god help the service sector.

Its a shame because either way, the renter and FHB is no better off

I don't think NZers with jobs are the risk takers.

I think that it is absolutely essential for government to step in to help people who have lost their jobs, and not the shareholders and executives (at end of the day, the justification for shareholders percentage of profit is that they are taking the risk!).

I think charging interest on owner-occupied properties of those who have lost their jobs must stop, and their repayment delayed for a year. Government can step in to fill the gap for liquidity of the banks if necessary (i.e. the government can repay the principal portion of the loan to the bank, and you will own the government the money).

There must be an equivalent for renters (but as I do not intend this to turn into a subsidy for the landlords, i am not sure how best this can be implemented. Maybe if landlords share a reasonable portion of the loss, via something like reducing the rent plus postponing the repayment of a portion of the rent to future as an interest free loan, government then can pay the remainder of the rent at present and recovering it from the renters when they find a stable job in future).
I think if housing costs and housing related bankruptcies are taken care off, there is a good chance that NZ can recover from the current situation within a reasonable time frame.

When is the announcement due??

2pm

Kodus to Idria Elba.
Shares testing positive.
And Asymptomatic spreading.

https://youtu.be/uj9IyepNUmo

WHO saying test test, test, isolate and contact trace.
Rinse & repeat.

Today's S&P 500 trading volume was the lowest it has been in over 22 years. Can anyone explain the meaning of this?

Everyone turned the bots off?

no buyers at offers

We are down 5% so far, were in growth and switched to conservative two weeks ago, KiwiSaver I mean.

Peak Prosperity.

Testing, testing testing.

https://youtu.be/_8QiUTWVnjQ

And while all our attention is focused on the virus, the oil companies are shamelessly screwing us. At the present oil price and exchange rate the price of petrol should be less than $1.57 to $1.62 per litre. The cheapest that I can find locally is $1.87.
The totally useless government continues to stand round doing nothing. They are not even engaging in their typical vapid rhetoric. The Oil companies must be just laughing at them.
If it were me the officials of the Commerce Commission accompanied by the police would be raiding the oil company offices and taking possession of all their records and computer files then going through them like a dose of salts.
If we were paying a fair price for our fuel then this would probably make a bigger contribution to our economy than anything that the government is likely to announce this afternoon.

I found Mobil 1.81 - last night, less plus smiles.

Was still $2.08 at the local Caltex last night, although cheaper than the BP down the road at $2.20.

How about looking up how much of that $1.80 is just pure tax?.. I think you'll find the biggest beneficiary to fuel prices is actually the government... just saying...

My analysis takes all that into account. 74 cents tax plus 15% gst

Lol tax on tax... so $0.851 out of $1.87 so roughly 45.5% of total cost is Tax - and we gripe about oil companies who actually refine and ship it from other parts of the world and likely make 30% or $0.305c per litre....

And we wonder why gas is so expensive....

No it is more than that. The GST goes onto the whole pre GST price not just the taxes as you have calculated. At a retail price of 1.87 the GST component is over 24 cents so the combination of tax plus GST is over 98 cents. I don't care how much the government taxes. It does that for good reasons and if we were not paying our tax in this form we would be paying it elsewhere. It is the obscene profit that the oil companies that concerns me plus the implied collusion and monopolistic behaviour. Profit margins of this order are not consistent with honest competition.

Chris-M, and download the slides

https://youtu.be/GHmKIVIgyjM
Macrovoices

Once this all settles down, you will have a whole generation scared to invest in the share market again. A number of those listed companies are doomed I suspect.

Fingers crossed we have multiple generations scared to invest in property again. Those investors with multiple properties on interest only loans expecting capital gains are doomed, I expect.

S&P 500 Plunged Most Since 1987, Gave Up in 18 Days the 42% Gains of Past 3 Years. Boeing Shares Collapsed

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/16/sp-500-soared-42-in-3-years-lost-all-i...

But don’t cry for Boeing shareholders: Boeing blew, wasted, and incinerated $43 billion on buying back its own shares to “unlock shareholder value” and “return value to shareholders,” or whatever Wall Street BS-nomenclature might have been used, starting in 2013, which is when the above chart begins. So you can see the effect of share buybacks, and what happened afterwards. And now, in its effort to survive this crisis, Boeing could use every penny of that $43 billion wasted on share buybacks. But it’s gone.

I think if you research the speed of the initial decline - it has surpassed any time in US history

Buybacks are not 'gone'.. it was just transferred to the bonus checks of CEO's whose performance was tied to stock prices and also to investors/ traders who rode the wave of buybacks and cashed out

Why is nobody talking about the fact that the fed just removed the major banks reserve ratios?? i.e. trying to delay a bear sterns type event?
Reserve ratios are there to ensure banks have capital cushions so now the fed is meddling with the definition of solvent as well?...

If the banks now have no capital requirements and fed interest rates are basically zero everywhere this can only end badly unless govt and central banks provide direct targeted support to consumers,
Already businesses are retrenching and going full ham re corona virus precautions including working from home, and 'social distancing' etc including cancelling travel and public gatherings is only going to erode demand in businesses further which is only going to weaken the economy faster
Its all fuelling fear and emotion based decisions which are seldom good ones

The note is directly on the feds own website here....
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm#:~:text=Res....

The ASX is up, defying belief.

I can only conclude the RBA has incinerated a staggering amount of money to keep thing moving. It just does not pass the sniff test.

NZX sharply higher just as ASX opened, too.

So will they announce a Deposit Insurance Scheme at 2pm? Does anyone here see a bank run or the preconditions for one yet?

I've done my bank run, I'm sure others have as well.

Not yet thats way down the line after asset prices start falling in response to the stock market and the real panic starts. Funny thing is Governments have been trying to phase out cash for years anyway. This may be the end of cash ?

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