Covid-19 explodes in the US; consumer confidence dives; the Fed shows what 'unlimited' means; Canada and India cut & stimulate; Australia struggles; UST 10yr yield at 0.73%; oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 60.1 USc; TWI-5 = 66.6

Covid-19 explodes in the US; consumer confidence dives; the Fed shows what 'unlimited' means; Canada and India cut & stimulate; Australia struggles; UST 10yr yield at 0.73%; oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 60.1 USc; TWI-5 = 66.6
Motunau Beach, Hurunui, North Canterbury

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the economic impacts are getting worse worldwide.

The US is getting explosive increases in its coronavirus infections and deaths, becoming the world's epicenter for the disease. State shutdowns are spreading in the absence of any Federal leadership to deal with the crisis, except on a financial level.

As a consequence, consumer confidence is diving, almost its steepest decline ever. Not only is it likely to get worse, it is likely to get much worse as people realise the policy failures have been toxic. It could get ugly for civil society there.

On the economic front, Congress has finally passed its US$2 tln stimulus and bailout bill, which the President says he will sign. Commercial property owners like him will get its aid soon. Workers and those now without jobs will get it on the drip-feed.

And today, the NY Fed bought US$223 bln in repos, taking their weekly total to US$650 bln. They also bought another US$34 bln in mortgage-backed securities taking the weekly total to US$472 bln. And they bought an eye-popping US$47.5 bln in US Treasuries today, taking the weekly tally to US$306 bln. All up, these three categories total US$1.427 tln. That will soon dwarf Congress's fiscal plan for the whole crisis. And we haven't even mentioned the Fed's activity in supporting their USD swaps market. That's another US$206 bln in just this week. Oh, and we should also mention the US$178 bln of Fed support of the NY securities dealers so far this week. You get the idea of what they mean by "unlimited support". It a propping up of the whole financial structure. The Fed may have "awesome powers" but it is virtually powerless to fight the virus and its impacts.

In the real economy, the dive in economic activity is having many costly effects, not the least of which is that back-haul freight opportunities have vanished leaving only one-way traffic and effectively doubling the cost of moving goods.

And here's another major impact. It is something that could shift demographics globally for a generation.

Across the now-closed border, Canada cut its official interest rate by -50 bps overnight to 0.25%. But that was just part of a coordinated response with their government which included a 75% wage subsidy for affected workers.

India has also cut its official interest rate by -75 bps to 4.40% and unleased US$30 bln of stlmulus.

In the UK, senior members of their government, including their prime minister, have tested positive for Covid-19.

China has now effectively closed its borders to travelers who are not citizens, worried about undoing their hard-won and painful Covid-19 containment gains. Their recovery rate is now up to 91% but it has cost them 3300 deaths so far. But China is increasingly optimistic it can restart its economy and a number of innovative 'helicopter' measures are being deployed. New Zealand's immediate economic future probably depends on these being a widespread success.

In Australia, confused signals continue and there is still no nationwide lockdown. Some state borders are closed, many businesses are shuttering, but many aren't. And many people are ignoring the risks. They have a fragmented and dangerous situation brewing.

For the record, the S&P500 is down -1.3% today so far. European markets fell twice as much overnight. But it is crystal clear equity market pricing signals now mean squat as investors have no idea how to price their holdings. Time won't be friendly to pricing decisions taken over the past week.


You get our daily news coverage free. Corporates are starting to pull advertising. That is a big problem for us. You enjoy reading our website, and I am asking you to Become a Supporter now. I personally want to say a big Thank You. (If you are already a Supporter, you're my hero.)


There are now more than 368 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another 85 new cases yesterday, including six important clusters.

Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 530,000 of officially confirmed cases, up +71,000 from this time yesterday and accelerating over the week. There are now 484,000 cases outside China and almost all of them are in five core countries. We will cease reporting the "outside China" number now because Italy is about to have more cases, joining the USA in this category. China is no longer the epicenter. That has moved to the US which now has 93,000 cases, up +23,200 (or +33%) IN ONE DAY. Covid-19 is has exploded there. Australia is now over 3100 cases, and 13 deaths. The pace of global infection is accelerating even quicker and global deaths now exceed 25,000. New Zealand is about to get its first Covid-19 death, from the eight people in hospital with the virus, two in ICU.

The UST 10yr yield is soft again today at under 0.73% and down -5 bps in a day. Their 2-10 curve is still very positive at +48 bps but slightly less so overnight. Their 1-5 curve is positive at +30 bps, also less so, and their 3m-10yr curve is still way out there at +73 bps and also less so. Short rates for UST bills turned back positive overnight. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.89% which is down -2 bps in a day. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged overnight at 2.68%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also little-changed at 1.10%.

The Fear & Greed index we follow is still on the 'extreme fear' side, but only just and not at the critical level we had this time last week. The VIX volatility index is still very elevated however, now at 65 when the average before this latest crisis was about 17. And it's rising today.

Gold is up again today, up +US6 at US$1,638/oz.

US oil prices are down sharply today to under US$21.50/bbl and the Brent benchmark is also sharply lower at just over US$24.50/bbl. Both represent drops of almost -US$1.50/bbl. Prices are dropping because there is nowhere to store the oil being produced as demand crashes. The US rig count has fallen sharply this week, back down to levels last seen in early 2017. Most analysts expect even sharper falls in the weeks ahead.

The Kiwi dollar is starting today firmer again than this time yesterday, now at 60.2 USc and up +½c overnight. And that is a remarkable +4c rise in a week as the greenback takes a hammering. On the cross rates however we are still high at 98.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also up at 54.4 euro cents and a +2c rise in a week. That means our TWI-5 is up to 66.6 (yes) and its highest in more than a week.

Bitcoin is now at US$6,658 and little-changed since this time yesterday. But it is up +7% in a week. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

194 Comments

David, how would you define success?

15
up

Try Johnny Cash. Success means having to worry about everything in the world except for money.

Great question Scarfie. Best of the YTD.

A re-valuation may be called for.

13
up

Edited: Success is owing no money to anyone, working for nobody, having zero stress, having a mortgage free home.... and not doing drugs.

So stoned under a bridge?

If they are happy, who are we to judge? or tell them to live their life otherwise?

For me success is happiness and contentment

Agree. Which seems to stem from quality of relationships, plus a dash of self-actualisation.

19
up

I predict massive un rest in the USA. Too many guns and too many loonies, and with Orange face at the helm will blame previous administrations. Or a women.

16
up

Crazy to think all Trump cares about is the stockmarket and none of his response plans address the top priority, minimising the deaths of thousands of americans.

Yes the USA now has the highest number of cases currently 100,390 infected. And president Looney wants to order his people back to work by Easter (12th April). Trump quote: "I think Easter Sunday and you'll have packed churches all over our country, I think it would be a beautiful time. And it's just about the timeline I think is right," he said in an interview with Fox News. I think he's looking for a political resurrection rather than the safety of his citizens.

The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coro...

And yet, Trump orders General Motors to make ventilators under Defense Production Act.
Your disdain for the man (which I understand) is clouding what is actually happening.
This is also the perfect time for GM to repay their bailout in 2008!

Only after countries like the UK started to ask their manufacturers to switch to making ventilators first, so get your facts right. Trump is still way behind the curve as usual. Here's some evidence for you: BBC Nissan halts carmaking in Sunderland and may make ventilators. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-51972329

Could we,

http://www.trekka.co.nz/trekka-kamper/

Kiwi ventilator.

Question some strategic thinking, coming soon.

I think, from memory, Nissan was stopping it's Sunderland carmaking anyway, due to future EU car exporting difficulties.

I would have thought the timeline on tooling up and actually producing would negate this as a useful venture ? Or is there a warehouse just next to fort knox, lets call it Space Force, full of ventilator parts that need screwing together.

He's finally invoked it, eh? Wow. Must've been a real contest of influencing parties persuading him one way and another.

Just yesterday he was saying "We don't need" the act.

So they've finally managed to knock enough sense into him to get it done.

"It could get ugly for civil society there."
And people mocked the response of those going to gun shops......
Sounds like a rational response to me.

12
up

Because a large number of new guns in the hands of untrained, inexperienced, and frightened people will do wonders for civil stability?

A massive amount of guns in US military hands has created mass destruction of countries to control oil.

And bananas.

Trivia...vaguely related...?

Guns in the hands of idiots is the link.

Lastest from CNBC
Trump signs $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill as the US tries to prevent economic devastation
Note the word tries.
He knows it will only slow it down.
This is going to be bigger than 1929.
When you shutdown most of the world and have record low interest rates to start with the diagnosis is not pretty.
We are going to see a massive reset to industries.
For every week a factory is closed can make a 2 month lag in in production times ???

What do you expect to see to play out the next 12-24 months? Won't hold this against you, just to understand what you see happening.

10
up

People are still in bubble mode yet to see the bad news and realize the game is over for now just look at the NZX versus ASX people still trying to play games thinking we are back in the good times.
Dow under 18000 this weekand then 15000 maybe 12000 next 1-3 months depending on how the figures flow on the growth front.
Many small businesses fold as turnover drops average 20 plus percent but some businesses ok.
Loss of confidence in tourism results in total wipeout across the board big and small companies which then flows to businesses that support them.
Business travel may never come back as after 6 weeks of this and they realize you can do most things online to save money and they are the profit makers for airlines.
Also watch out the USD is taking a dive and if milk price drops more and our dollar stays strong even more pain on that front and petrol prices jump backup above 2 dollars next few months.

Thanks for your perspective.

The US is looses global currency status.
US dose not come out of this well and it fractures.

I wonder what they will resort to in order to try to preserve their global reserve status.

Perhaps should not have let the stockmarket and bankers drive their national financial policy. What a mess they've made. Selfish idiots.

They are throwing the kitchen sink at it at present.
It ends badly once they hit a million deaths and still carry on higher. The US has issues when the body bags get too high.

Blame Hillary - tick in both columns!

What's not to like.

a return to chants of 'lock her up' with the possible addition of 'and cough on her', you reckon?

One of the US forums I'm on there are a lot of people invested in what the idiot President says. It's not just the cult like support of him but there is a lot of emotion. One financial organisation posted the US infections on a log chart and the plot was just an unwavering straight line. Many people just do not understand exponential growth, and lag between action and results (claimed to be 10 days according to one of Dr Siouxsie Wiles tweets).

So far the US has not had any effective change on the growth rate, but I know of people that got a lockdown message in their state the day after we got ours. So we should see some results in about one weeks time both here and in the US (I hope).

Exactally!
Too many well armed nutters coming into contact with scared teenagers, with very limited education, sitting on a Humvee with a 50 cal.
The there will be the shortages of heroin, crack and the rest create strung out zombies looking for a fix.
The States is going to fall apart and fast.

What a load of absolute nonsense Kezza. This isn’t the opening scene of the “walking dead.”
The US military is highly trained and disciplined.
The US is also in a financial position to weather this better then NZ, or any other country in the world. If you’re a drug addict, it’s probably the perfect time to give it up.

12
up

Not rubbish Gen hubbub, I've called it basically how it's played out so far. You on the other hand have predicted nothing, except over inflating my words. I say there will be strung out junkies, you say it's the walking dead and I'm on drugs WTF are you on about? It sounds like you a PR product of the military yourself.
US military is a joke, Russia showed the world what an effective military can do in Syria. The US can not win a war to save themselves, so much for your admiration of the US oil control mercenaries.
Fact, the average US gun slinger isn't smart by any measure. Maybe their commanders are but they are not the ones with their finger on the trigger.
The US is broke and printing dollars out of thin air, further complicating the issue.
No drugs here but a fair helping of logic of understanding of the real world.

So let me get this straight. You are predicting the downfall of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful nation? Cool, I’ve locked that one in.
You are also claiming that by the Russians supporting Syria with chemical attacks on unarmed civilians, they did a better job than the US, who didn’t do that? Have you seen the state Syria is in?
You are showing how ignorant you are. Get a grip man and calm down. You have absolutely no understanding of the real world.
Ps I never said you were on drugs. I said it was a good time for junkies to give up drugs.

SMH

I doubt America will be the worlds most powerful country forever. Empires rise and fall. Not saying I expect a rapid decline, but my personal respect for America has certainly dropped significantly since Trump has been in change - I almost find it to be a bit of a joke now. Trump reminds me of that incompetent manager in 'The Office' (played by Ricky Gervais).

11
up

Unlikeable as he is, he hasn't actually invaded anywhere as yet. I was astonished when he ordered the attack on Iran to stand down when it was in mid-flight. Hillary would have clapped her hands in delight, as would Obama and Bush 2 , of course. Probably also every other president since Eisenhower.

The scariest thing about the US is that Trump was the best presidential candidate, by far. It confirmed my faith in democracy, that the American people could see through the lies they were being told. However, it doesn't say much for America.

If Hillary had won the world would be in war. Luckily the US people voted for the lesser of two evils.

Mind you he also murdered an Iranian general to distract people. Bit nutty, that choice.

Small theory, the general had become too popular hence the Iranian regime leaders not exactly heartbroken. Stalin had the same problem with Zhukov but he was only sent to the wilderness.

$100 that the US looses the global currency in the next year bet donation to Interest.co.nz. NZD that is, not soon to worthless USD.
Russian chemical attacks, yeah those false flag attacks blamed on Russia. Yes the US which intentionally created instability in Syria, moved it's troops in and couldn't actually win the war it started and then walked out again once the country was screwed,like it has done to many other countries for decades. Your beloved US is screwed, good riddens.
Let's add another $100 NZD donated to Interest.co.nz that a large part of the US is put under military control due to massive civil unrest.
Another $100 on over 2 million deaths in the US.
I hate betting unless it's a massive probability that I will win, I get pissed off if I buy a lotto ticket and don't win and don't buy another for a year.

I'll bet $500 that the US$ is still the global reserve currency this time next year.

My charity is Maori Womens refuge, you can choose whoever you want.

I only bet when it's a massive probability in my favour.

I'm dealing with hubhub who has a big mouth.
Do you know Te Kooti's Bluff / Look Out (known by both names) at the junction of the Mohaka and Te Hoe rivers? I spent a lot of time there as a kid.

No problem. No, can't say I have, it's a beautiful part of the world. He spent time all around the cape into the BoP.

In the 70's and 80's we used to camp there and go fishing and hunting with permission from a local Maori princess married to Jack O'Sullivan the ex deer culler. The gate posts to the par were stored in the rafters of a hay shed and evidence of the old whares dug outside were still there. The area had it's own buzz to it, a kind of magic in the air. I didn't get that feeling of a tapu that I have felt before in other spots. I hate that feeling and I get out of there fast. I'm sure you know that feeling.
I have long wondered if the impressive peak of Te Kooti's Bluff is the site of his famous escape from the armed constablery, when they wove flax into ropes and escaped. I'll do some digging into that, I've got a bit of time on my hands. It is certinally in the right area and the peak is definitely the formation with a steep defendable slope with a bluff on the back.

Have you met many US military in recent years? Maybe back in the days of the Vietnam War and the R&R trips to Bangkok they had a questionable reputation, but that's a long time ago. Irrespective of rank, US military almost always impress me and are some of the nicest, most polite people you could meet. And if you get to know some of the retired guys of some rank, you'll be extremely impressed when they tell you about all the systems they have in place for controls, discipline and whatnot. I know a heap of former US military (army, navy, marines but not air force) and they always impressed me. If things do go pear-shaped in America and it got so bad that the military had to step in to help, the country would be in excellent hands.

It is not these guys with their fingers in the trigger. It is the 20 year olds that will be scared.

Newsflash, drug addicts don't just "give it up".

Really? Gasp! Watch me run around with my hands in the air screaming that the sky is going to fall...

Yeah, you missed the point again hunhub.

The United States recorded a government debt equivalent to 106.90 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2019

New Zealand recorded a government debt equivalent to 19.90 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2018.

Some more facts for you General

I’m not going to engage with your hysteria and ignorance anymore. But I would encourage you to get out of your echo chamber and start looking a little deeper at the real world.

After you..

FYI the real world is on lock down and the global economy that was on shaky before this is now by far worse but apparent nothing to see here, move on says Gen Hunhub, stiff upper lip and all that. Pip pip let them eat cake.

A must watch.
https://youtu.be/9Z4P39ZbtUw
This is going to happen in The States, maybe not to the over 65's, it maybe the poor.
And you think it will go well and there will be no kick back or civil unrest.

12
up

Also watch crime spike here as borders are closed and short supply of drugs create price rises while people have lost income to pay for it.
I have already had someone come up my driveway and try and take bikes of the back of the car in broad daylight but they where locked and I heard them banging them so they failed whe I came out but they did take all my spares and tools.
I have never had a problem like this before.
People need to make sure your properties are secure and you have a plan to protect your family as home invasions may spike as this takes hold and the police will have limited staff to help.

Oh not again. Rolling my eyes. There has always been crime in NZ. Am pretty sure the gangs won’t accept payment for meth with a kids bike...

They are worth more than an average Kiwi car but not the point crime is going to double if not triple in next 6 months.
Anytime we have mass unemployment crime spikes and this depression will cause a massive spike.
I hope the goverment ramps up support for the police.

Really hubhub, gangs don't accept payment in kids bikes?? Yes they do, that is a fact. They have houses set up with stolen goods that are like shops. They have everything from food to lounges. Obviously you have no clue if what is actually going on. Just because you don't see it from your two bed unit in your gated retirement home, doesn't mean it isn't happening.

Saw a drug deal go down in a park on day one. A young couple, maybe about 18. No point reporting it. I suspect those sorts of congregations risk further spread when all else is sacrificed for the sake of a fix.

USA is going to see mass looting and desparate crime for months until this over.
But mostly in major cities as the amount of people with nothing will be massive and you know what desparate people do.
Just look at Australia and people fighting over toilet paper.
Watch when people are hungry and broke.

Fazzie, I predict your prediction will be wrong.
Many in the US approving now.

On Trump's handling of the pandemic, Gallup found 60% of American adults approve. A Fox News poll out Thursday found it lower, at 51%. Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov polls similarly had it at 49%.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/27/822043781/trumps-approval-hits-new-high-b...

Thanks Honkey...but your Comms are all over the place lately...quoting fox now? Did they survey include 1586 dead?

Check this out Henry.
https://youtu.be/9Z4P39ZbtUw
It's looking like the US & Ozzy are the next up for this and I don't think either of those populations will remain calm.

The daily White House briefing. Starts soon, great viewing, an american perspective.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/

Looking at the queues outside Gun City on the news, some of us aren't that different to the yanks.

They had a really good sale going.
It was clear that the US would go into lock down and they produce most of our ammo.
If you are on lock down and you can hunt you may as well stock up.
With time on their hands they can do some pest control.
Very few would be stocking up for protection.

A suggested text for our Prime Minister to issue over the course of the day:

“Today, I spoke at length to Prime Minister Morrison in Australia, and relayed our concerns to him over the treatment of New Zealanders in his country at time of great anxiety for us all.
Sadly I have been unable to convince him to provide the assistance to our citizens that we do to his , even if it is on a temporary basis whilst we continue fuller discussions on the matter during a more normal time.
I have to tell you that Mr Morrison is not prepared to extend such a kindness, and as such he has destroyed the last vestiges of the ANZAC spirit that has bound our two countries together for over 100 years; through thick and thin, War and famine, fire and flood, Kiwis and Aussies have stood shoulder to shoulder.
That is now in the past. The ANZAC spirit, so strong at other times of adversity, is no more.
So I announce today that from 11.59pm on 31/3/20 all arriving Australian citizens to our country will be treated the same as any other. The CER that we have enjoyed has come to an end.
I expect no different a policy form Mr Morrison, which is in fact already in place in Australia today.

Look after yourselves, my fellow Kiwis. Kia kaha.

JACINDA ARDERN. PRIME MINISTER OF NEW ZEALAND. "

Pretty emotional.
How would this make New Zealand a better place?

Have looked through all the pros and cons, the costs and benefits of your thinking?
Any strategic thinking.

It's up to us to make New Zealand a better place. We don't need Australia. We didn't when they entered Federation ( and NZ decided not to become a State of the new Australian Commonwealth) and we don't now. It's 'fear of the unknown' that stops any us from releasing out full potential.
Australia has been edging away from 'us' since 2001, when The Rules were formally changed. In truth, it had been going on a lot longer than that, as those on non-Australian passports found themselves without a Permanent Resident Visa if they missed crossing just one 't'.
Strategically? Again. It's up to us. Australia will be the isolated party in the coming New World - Britain, the USA etc are already on a new path, and so should we be.
What we had before, is gone.
Clinging to vestiges of the past in no way to create a better future.

What's the new path (UK, USA are on).
Is it the same path NZ you suggest for NZ.

I'll suggest Brexit and "MAGA" are new paths, but even if you don't agree with that - whatever path they ,and we, were on before has been changed. It's gone. We have to decide how to go forward from here, and if it's being beholden to Australia, then we may as well join up ( if they agree to have us as we crawl towards them on our knees) and become a State of the Commonwealth.

Has anyone heard anything g about kiwis losing jobs in Aus, and how they are coping. It must be happening... I can't recall seeing anything recently

As the coronavirus pandemic destroys jobs across Australia, New Zealanders who have lived and worked here for years are finding they have no access to welfare

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/no-safety-net-and-now-no-j...

Thanks BW. Good article as usual from the Guardian.
This is very worrying. 650k kiwis in Aus!
Seriously worrying.

Check this out Ftriz.
https://youtu.be/9Z4P39ZbtUw
Shocking.

Yes it's happening.

I've got mates in Sydney, Kiwi's who've been working there for years. Their boss sat them down on Thu last week, cried, said maybe one more weeks pay. This is on the back of drought then fires reducing sales.

The boss will pay them all their leave then they're out. He'll change the business to online sales then maybe get one or two back after but who knows when or if but probably not don't rely on it.

On the plus side everyone including Kiwis can access $10k of super so thank God they've had compulsory super. But all the super balances dropped of course. My mate will live with their partner (currently not living together). He loses his job next week too.

As an aussie he'll get $590/ wk net dole which includes six month covid supplement and rent assistance. Their landlord said they don't need to pay $250/ wk rent if they have no job. They are extremely lucky.

He has a classic panhead he restored as insurance to cash in one day but who's going to pay a premium for a bike now. Maybe gangs laundering money... but he'll be devastated to part with that pannie for cheap.

So, two people, both older, 52 and 63 unlikely to ever get work again $590/ wk combined not including the $10k super EA they can both drawdown. They're not worried and can live off an oily rag so they're ok. All good while landlord lets them live rent free but landlords ancient might die or go to a home soon.

Another mate on gold coast lost a job teaching after school tutoring, no warning, just gone, income down to half. They don't seem to be able to get mortgage assistance from what I gather. So now down to one part time job in healthcare, an essential service. The husband did council maintenance fulltime so can't work, unlikely to be paid once used up all his leave.

Another mate's friend owns a rural IGA, a bus load of Asians turned up and stripped the shop. Took everything. She feared for her life, called the cops.

Things don't sound great in Aus from what I gather but then they're looking at us wondering how the hell NZ will pay for all the handouts and money spending.

The future will pay for it.

Cross fingers there is no big EQ on the way.

In that case, we'd better also declare independence from China and ask our political parties to do so also. We do not want to lose our existing alliances only for MPs to be selling list places to China and compromising our sovereignty (and food security).

Suggest NZ has more need of Australia than vice versa. Like it or lump it in other words.

Why do we need them more than us? What is it that they provide us today that we can't source elsewhere ( and in fact already do!). What do they do for us? If it's "But we get to go Visa free, to work there" and that's all, how will having to apply for a Work Visa be any different to what they require of all other countries? None. And if 'they' want to work here - ditto.

Looks like you just answered my 9:12 post above.

Suggestion. Think through the strategic position, then work up the pros, cons and costs/benefits.

Fair enough. I'll leave it to you to see how Kiwis in Australia are supposed to eat given that they get NO support from that country during this crisis. As you watch the news of destitute fellow citizens scrapping a living as best they can or 'coming home' to get some sort of comfort, then think of what the alternative SHOULD have been - ie: What we do for their citizens. As I said,the spirit of ANZAC is over.

This is the massive elephant in the room. I assume plenty will try and bunk down with mates over there.

BW.
Keep an eye on ABC aust live feed.
The state structure adds a degree of complexity.
Refer Sydney cruise ship ballsup. State v Feds.
https://youtu.be/G-sCNxj2M2M

Citizens of NZ can come back, have been advised to already.
NZ pr folk in Australia have been encouraged to go dual passport for 15 years.

https://youtu.be/G-sCNxj2M2M

In spirit of ANZAC we should be offering anything we got, including experiences (and we are).

ANZAC Spirit has been over for decades. Many Kiwi's had the opportunity to become Aus citizens for free before 2000. Many who have gone over since could also have become Aus citizens. Most deliberately chose not too.

Both NZ and Aus allow dual citizenship. So it's not like they had to give anything up.

Yes we do stuff for their citizens, but that is our choice as a sovereign nation. We could have limited the rights in line with Aus. We chose not too.

I have no sympathy for Kiwi's over there. There is always some risk in living in a foreign country.

A big brother in case of war sounds like a good reason.

Do you reckon any Big Brother would be much good in any modern War?
It's not "Over the Top, Boys!" anymore.
Chances are in any serious War none of us would even here the drones bearing the MOMD coming....

Man Of My Dreams?

Ground forces are said to still be very necessary. Apparently it's not all just dropping bombs from above or afar.

Ozzy has by far more chance of being invaded than NZ and Oz wouldn't let anyone get a military base on their doorstep.

Wrong. What do kiwis do in Aussie? They all work and pay taxes.
In fact it was unusual to find an Aussie on a construction site there, hell I hardly saw one in a workshop as well.

There is a big difference between paying taxes and being a citizen.

Be careful. Half the readers will think it was actually Jacinda talking. I say look after the Aussies, even though it costs us. We have always got the money back in spades from Aussies visiting us and saying what a better place we have here.

Will we either know the real numbers of Sick and Dead from China? Likely not. There is no way those numbers are real.

The numbers will be from the Ministry of Propaganda so as to avoid an uprising. The reality can only be inferred and there is no certainty. The link below says that China has 21 m less mobile users. Most are likely to be seasonal workers and students that have gone home, but they estimate hundreds of thousands or one million dead from the statistics. Can you be certain about this? No, but it's the best I've found so far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7qxMBqRNZs

Probably not know.
We may never know, they may never want us to know.

Here is a US view
At around 16 minute mark.
The CCP is a direct descendant of Mao.
Still his party, and now there are about 500,000 elite members that will say & do anything to.
1. Continue their luxurious & powerful existence - the patty's survival.
2. Stage manage people & events to their perception of national advantage.

https://youtu.be/fbOMSNJq-4c

David interested in your fuel figures yesterday showing large drop in AKL to an average discounted fuel price of 1.84 for 91.

GASPY doesn't confirm this. Neither does https://www.pricewatch.co.nz/Default.aspx?lyr=2&price_type=avg

Both show mid to high 1.90s (before 6c discount in a lot of cases. Personally if we were at the same prices as Victoria and taking into account taxes we should be around 1.50 to 1.60.

Not really relevant I know as nobody is driving.

I can see the press release from the petrol companies now when questioned on fuel price rise after lockdown...

" It's important to note that for the last 4 weeks we have had substantially discounted rates at the pump..."

Dont forget many of the petrol taxes in nz are fixed. The cheapest price in Akl according to Gaspy right now is $1.87. $1.09 (58%) of that is taxes (excise, ETS, gst, regional fuel tax). The effects of decreasing barrell prices will diminish as the product cost becomes a smaller proportion of the total price.

Comparisons with austarlia are pointless on this basis.

Christchurch got $1.76. Wednesday.

The American dream quickly becoming the American nightmare.

Unfortunately Trump's inept leadership will not help.
How can States individually try to have effective lock downs when you have the importance of these being undermined by Trump harking on that that the virus' economic impact is more serious and we will have all back to normal by Easter. Mixed messages at the best.

I get the feeling that if you're not wealthy you don't really matter in America - #JustaStatistic

Yep, you either grease the wheels or get run over by them.

The American Dream sailed off in the 80’s when the US started exporting its manufacturing / jobs to China.

That 1st one, 1st video, any idea what the office is. It's not a bank is it?

I translated some of the comments.
Heres an example

"The police from Jiujiang, Jiangxi hit the Huangmei police from Hubei, and the police cars all overturned. Reasons for battering: private checkpoints to block entry of Hubeiese"

Italy over 900 deaths in 24 hours (source BBC).

"China has now effectively closed its borders to travelers who are not citizens, worried about undoing their hard-won and painful Covid-19 containment gains." Clearly this will apply to New Zealand; once we have contained the virus, expect an additional period of Level 2 borders closed to follow.

Only open the boarders to other countries that have fought the virus and won? If one of the major countries had that policy the rest of the world would probably follow suit.

Probably will be one of the progressive steps taken. Will need to be alert to the continent hoppers though. Guess immigration would be able to track the full itinerary of each individual incoming?

Only allow people onto a flight here if they have been tested negative 20 minutes before getting on the plane.

Future air travel may have to be like that. You may have to go into weeks of quarantine after you fly (and perhaps before). Its just a nightmare to even start thinking about it - unless we build herd immunity over the coming months - which if that's the case - will many people die?

14
up

Wait. Didn't the Chinese tell us that closing borders is "racist"?

It’s hard to see what Trump is thinking. He will lose the next election unless he stops the spread of the virus. I guess he is hoping for a vaccine soon - but even if there is one in a few months, a lockdown would save a lot of lives in the mean time. Surely a lockdown is inevitable (can you imagine if Italy hadn’t) - why wait until it is too late? Isn’t waiting worse for the economy?

I think Trump is trying to control the dialogue but doesn't grasp the fact that you have to abandon that strategy when the issue affects everyone's lives and the results are visible. He also doesn't realise that by downplaying the seriousness he is going to draw this out for much longer. That fact that people are looking to Governors for leadership says a lot.

He's playing the game of narrative economics - but it needs to be kept realistic. The statements are borderline falsehoods (fake news?) which could become problematic for him.

Trump has lost the change room that is why the governors are coming out along with the health officials.
Unfortunately he hasn't lost the fans.

Excuse the sports analogy. Theres just nothing on Sky sports atm except reruns.

non-lockdown countries need to decide whether they are going to accept the virus and allow it to kill a percentage of their population or not. If not I just can’t see why they are prepared to wait before lockdown. It will just make the inevitable lockdown take much longer. Can anyone realistically see a scenario where the US or Australia aren’t in lockdown some time next month? Why wait? Personally I think our government got the timing perfect.

Every man in Australia complained about only getting 30 minutes in the hair salon. Got to have good looking hair for isolation.

Or 30 minutes isn’t enough time away from the kids.

Will , as did Sars for example, CV19 run its course and disappear for good or will it lurk around like TB. Theoretically China should work that out first, but who could trust their findings?

Well covid 19 is in the same family of viruses as SARS so let's be hopeful it f#$ks right off!

ditto!!

Sure lets just hope and here's a comparison for the new virus to the 1918 flu. CNBC: The coronavirus may be deadlier than the 1918 flu: Here’s how it stacks up to other pandemics. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-fl...

SARS is/was extremely deadly. This new strain of SARS is clearly far more contagious. There has been no data published as yet to show exactly how the SARS-Cov-2 differs from the original SARS strain other than that there is only a 5 nucleotide difference. Undoubtedly some of those 5 will be in how much more contagious it is.

I don't agree. If they followed their own procedure when it hit two countries they were meant to shut the border.

Why didn't they follow their own procedure????

"A 2018 study by the University of Iowa found that Kinsa could anticipate seasonal flu outbreaks three weeks before they happen using its temperature data. Now, Singh says they’ve “broken the forecasting barrier” and can predict flu outbreaks 12 weeks out.
...Kinsa is telling anyone willing to listen — hello, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — exactly where flu-like illnesses are spiking at an anomalous rate, county by county across the U.S. Fevers are a leading indicator of a COVID-19 cluster that requires quick testing and, perhaps, quarantine. A first look shows the New York City area and most of Florida as the worst hot spots right now, with suspected flu-like illness running 2 percent higher than what would be expected in normal conditions."

https://www.ozy.com/the-new-and-the-next/the-man-mapping-coronavirus-wit...

David,
The other day you were complaining about system 1 thinking on Wall Street yet here you are using emotive works and capitalisation to emphasise certain figures you consider relevant. Who is engaging in system 1 thinking. Just saying.......

He didn’t capitalise about the looming CONDOM SHORTAGE, def think that’s a big, Hard fact!!!

Don't quit you day job - your puns are terrible :-)

S&P500 had a bit of a tumble in the last 30 mins and closed at -3.37%.

I looked at the market around midday New York time and it was up. I thought that was completely crazy, closing with a drop makes more sense as the market has been completely overbought.

What are you looking at?

The S&P500 and DOW both opened negative and were negative all day
The professionals close the market
In the last half hour the S&P500 fell 83 pts and the DOW fell 691 pts
83 S&P500 pts = 664 DOW equilvalents

I am feeling much better now as OneRoof are saying there shouldn't be a house price crash, this is very different to the GFC

Haha.
Also, I like the irony (excuse the pun) in the name of this publication. People should own one roof not 2,3,30...

Yip its almost like a cult, a gang with their on belief systems.

I guess their gang initiation rite is the fleecing of the prospect then.

I think it really denigrates what is already a questionable newspaper. It totally lacks balance and objectivity, all the things you seek in journalism.
They need to draw a bit more of a disconnect between it and the paper proper. They won't of course.
Luckily there are still some good writers and thinkers at The Herald. Wilson, Fallow, O'Sullivan, Hooton.

Wilson. Haha.

Don’t rain on their parade...

Would make a good Tui billboard- yeah right.

One roof has a vested interest in properties being sold. If prices drop they will not sell. It's like listening to a real estate agent, it always the right time to buy.

And today, the NY Fed bought US$223 bln in repos, taking their weekly total to US$650 bln.

They did not - frankly, David you have gone off the reservation in terms of posting false observations concerning a number of financial data sets.
For the record: Fed reverse repo (RRP) draining operations (-$210.794bn) overwhelmed diminished TOMO(+$12.001bn)+POMO(+$73.68bn) system "liquidity" injections today. Graphic summary.

The Federal Reserve conducts reverse repo operations (RRP) daily, and has for more than half a decade. These are very different from the “liquidity” operations the central bank has been deploying since last year’s rumble in the repo market; the latter merely mimic a repo transaction and are intended to push bank reserves the Fed creates on the spot out into the Primary Dealer network.

A reverse repo, as the name implies, is the reverse of that transaction. Its purpose therefore is not bank reserve-type liquidity but to establish a floor for depository institutions. Those who are cash rich have the option of “lending” that cash to the Fed receiving in return SOMA holdings as collateral.

Given that option, who in their right mind would ever lend into money markets at a rate less than the RRP? That’s the floor. As far as risk goes, you’re never going to do better than lending cash to the central bank on pristine collateral.

This goes for money markets and money equivalents alike. A 4-week T-bill, for instance, is a money equivalent in this sense. Why would anyone lend to the US government at a return less than what they would get at the RRP? These are near equivalent transactions; in the former you are left holding a 4-week bill while in the latter you’ve received government debt as collateral. Link

But the real story today is the shortage of dealer collateral to participate in the Fed's reserve creation program.
In Stunning Development, Dealers Run Out Of Securities To Use In Fed Repo Operations
Stocks Tumble After Fed Announces It Will Reduce Treasury QE From $75BN to $60BN Per Day

I see one problem with this shut down.
The rest of the world except China are letting it spread and will be able to open back up in 6-12 months to normal travel and trade but NZ/China? have to wait for vaccine and be shut off from rest of the world.
What if vaccine never arrives we will face a difficult choice.
Also maybe it is not as bad as we are being told yes it will kill millions but lets watch Boris and Prince Charles.
They are coming out of winter with lower immunity.

I have never heard that immunity drops over winter. My bull&hit detector is sounding loudly on that one.

There is quite a lot of research that demonstrates the effect of Vitamin D on immunity.
Levels are lower in winter with less sunshine.

Vitamin D. Take supplements.

OR take sun. Even for someone fair skinned like me, I can stay out for one hour in the middle of the day at this time of year and not worry about getting burnt.

Where do you get the idea it will kill millions?

I really hope Labour spend up big to employ people straight after this. If done well, NZ could lead the world in terms of economic recovery. I also hope they finally value primary producers for the contribution they make, drop the proposed regulations.

Climate change initiatives and rules all very well but an ideological fantasy, very low priority if no functional economy and society first.

Cameron Bagrie has good suggestions on Twitter.

Bollocks, on all points.

Spending up big is actually going into debt big. Going into debt big, is expecting the future to do the re-paying, big. That's theft.

Climate is merely the effect of the exhaust gases of our energy-use, but the fact that it's planet-forcing tells us how overshot we are, both in population and in consumption.

And Bagrie is just another growth-mantra-chanter. You cannot have a consumption-based 'economy' at this level on this planet - we're drawing-down and it will therefore cease. Whether this is the great re-set or a stagger on the way down, is moot. The rest is fact.

Get with the programme.

Lead the world in terms of Economic Recovery... not sure that is too realistic given how the economy and workforce has been configured in 2020:
New Zealand's tourism industry is a billion-dollar earner for the country, and it's set to increase with an industry goal of growing total tourism revenue to $41 billion a year by 2025.
One in every five dollars of export earnings is tourism related, with 188,000 people directly employed in tourism and 332,000 indirectly. That's one in every eight jobs reliant on the tourism industry. That’s a combined total of 520,000 workers out of the total private workforce of 1,830,000 (plus 403,000 Government jobs local and national). Thus Tourism and related jobs account for 28% -make that nearly 30% of the New Zealand private workforce.
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/6974-the-tourism-new-zealand-report
https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1809/2018_Hospitality_Report.pdf

Yes and it may take years before our tourist numbers get back to where they were - if people return to normal travel behaviors post COVID19 which isn't a certainty.

Or they could release a vaccine tomorrow and people could head out on holiday after being isolated so long.

There is zero chance of a vaccine tomorrow. If there was a vaccine within 12 months ready for us, it would involve every single stage of the process to go optimally and with fluke luck.

18 months to 2 years is a much more realistic expectation on a vaccine roll out.

Takes 6 months for the flu vaccine doesn’t it?

Was growing to that.
But that's in the past and frankly I hope it stays in the past, never to be let happen again.
Everyone I've spoken with, and I mean everyone in the south is so relieved the tourists have gone.

We need to find another way to keep people here busy. I could have said another way to earn money, but at the end of this money isn't real

I have said before that we just have to get some of the 3 million kiwis who head overseas every year to come South instead, the perceived problem will be solved. And they will be able to actually drive, and stay on their side of the road. That combined with sending everybody on temporary work visas home will practically solve any employment issues

wirehunt, I'm not happy tourists have gone, maybe you should talk to some people working in the tourism sector who have lost their jobs… bet they won't be that happy "tourists have gone"

Wrong way to look at it.

Which is what I think often when I read your posts.

My prediction is china will come out of this as the top nation. Comments?

Possibly - but it was trending that way before COVID19. Ray Dalio has some interesting thoughts on that topic. Suggests you should be investing in China long term - thinks you'd be crazy to think its not going to be a significant player in the world economy in the coming decades.

It’s not the US you need to worry about it’s China. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hubei-residents-riot-after-quaran...

All those trillions of US dollars going into the US markets .....
Wonder how much of that will reach the povertied lot who got foreclosed and ruthlessly turfed out of their homes by the Merchanteers during the GFC. They've never recovered. And how much will reach the first nations down on the reservations. The Seneca, Arapoho, Comanche, Navajo, Pueblo etc - if they survive

Little as is humanely possible to deny those most in need.

humanely possible is one of the more ironic typos I've seen in a while

No doubt Mar A Lago & Trump Tower will be top of the list. Corporate welfare is alive and kicking in the free world. Merely hastens their continuing decline in relevance to the rest of the world.

No lockdown in Sydney. I think Scott Morrison has lost the plot and should be held liable for what is going to happen in Australia because of his inefficiency and inaction.

He does not want to use the word lockdown, can understand as no one is interested in what word you use but more interested in action by whatever name. Aleast act and close down everything except essentials and call it what suits you.

Is he ignorant and fool and stupid and still doing the top job in Australia.

Remember the role the State Government plays as well, often more.

The Berejiklian government is warning young people that unless they curb their socialising they will spread the coronavirus, as backpacker hostels were still hosting parties on Friday night despite tough new restrictions.

More than one third of NSW’s 1405 coronavirus cases are people aged in their 20s and 30s, prompting concerns other young people with mild or no symptoms could be unwittingly spreading the virus.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/young-ignore-social-isolation-as-pol...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_New_South_Wales

This is not the time of just warning but being strict and enforcing.

Desperate time needs desperate measures.

Yep. Australian army are deployed. They are masked up and at Sydney airport now, managing arrivals having medical checks (temp), interviews, marked distancing.

Can’t say I blame them really. Hardly seems fair for the oldies to be calling in a favour from the millennials does it?

As predicted made up 18 percent of purchasers last year.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120551805/firsthome-buyers-plans-on-hol...

wow even Mcdonalds wanting rent relief give me a break.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120644517/mcdonalds-asks-landlords-if-t...

Fair enough I say. If the property is no longer in demand then the price should come down shouldn’t it?

Astounding stuff I say. Can the franchiser (mcdonalds corporation) not assist any struggling franchisees. Instead Maccas point to Grant Robertson's intervention "Stevens pointed to Finance Minister Grant Robertson's comments urging commercial landlords to be flexible with their tenants." A pandemic cannot be insured for so IMO the govt has to untimately compensate for consequential losses of this.

MoH update.
Note the change of tone.
New distance between speaking lectern.
and words.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/covid-19-media-update-2...

And
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120581185/antivirus-meas...
.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120422887/coronavirus-...

And
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/20/1092200/why-urgency-not-gradualism...

And I'm at a loss as to why more is not being done: we're simply not going fast enough. Our Government seems committed to a failed policy of gradualism dressed up as faux-decisiveness.

Expect to see more change of tone, and faces.

Are the 50 recovered people allowed to return to work? I sure hope so.

They didn't plan 2 months back and now they are scrabbling. Having people mixing in supermarkets and in queues outside is an appalling indictment on the preparation the govt didn't do. What the hell is the point of lockdown if you don't do the job properly?

As mentioned before, collapse looks like a glut, not scarcity
Oil everywhere and no buyers or storage
This spells big supply chain problems coming up

Peak Prosperity guy

https://youtu.be/yN3BWaEH3tY

In the Interests of everyones' mental health, and via the inimitable Jo Nova, here's a thought for whiling away these long days of confinement....

Fear is the strongest of emotions, if one can inflict fear into people, especially fear of illness and loss of their own lives, one can get the masses to believe and do anything.

Nope. Promise them more in the future. Doesn't matter what more, just more.

And avoid telling them the consequences (planet-trashing, lack of habitat, extinction).

You'll get them laying their bets every time.

Until there isn't another.

Korea - “...we are at the point where we can manage the situation.”

Remarkably – and contrary to Chinese and European practice – South Korea has achieved this without nationwide, province-wide or even city-wide lockdowns."

If you need a reason to stay indoors.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120651219/are-we-ready...

Junior doctor Dr Rebecca Fisher, based at Christchurch hospital, told Stuff she and her colleagues had paid for their own PPE as the DHB was "holding scrubs ransom" for theatre staff.

And, very sad news.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120655743/coronavirus-...

One person has died in New Zealand of Covid-19, says Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield.

& a number of health workers in 14 day isolation.

worth a watch at 1 min 46 seconds into it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqmR2EsZJY0&feature=push-sd&attr_tag=caR...
The Australian property bubble just popped.