Fed scrambles to stabilise the greenback; US confidence falls; PMIs weaken; Chinese PMIs bounce back; Australian confidence at record low; UST 10yr yield at 0.67%; oil holds and gold down; NZ$1 = 59.3 USc; TWI-5 = 65.8

Fed scrambles to stabilise the greenback; US confidence falls; PMIs weaken; Chinese PMIs bounce back; Australian confidence at record low; UST 10yr yield at 0.67%; oil holds and gold down; NZ$1 = 59.3 USc; TWI-5 = 65.8

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news it is the turn of currency markets to be roiled.

First, the US Fed is scrambling to ensure that the foreign exchange markets continue to function property. Even after today's new FIMA repo facility scheme, the greenback rose on strong demand, something they are trying to prevent. (The RBNZ has since March 20 been providing liquidity in the FX swap market and re-established a temporary US dollar swap line to US$30 bln with the US Fed.)

And this is despite consumer confidence falling sharply in the US in March, mirroring an earlier survey. But the fall was not as much as most analysts were expecting.

And the widely-watched Chicago PMI also fell sharply, but also not by as much as was expected.

With the civilian aircraft manufacturing industry all but shut down in the US, all eyes are now on the car industry, awaiting March sales results. A key analysts sees this industry, which sold 17 mln vehicles in 2019, only selling 14.2 mln in 2020, making it much smaller than the also-falling Chinese car market which will probably sell 20 mln vehicles in 2020 even after the steep virus cutbacks. The fall in US sales will cascade through their manufacturing base even harder than the aircraft situation. And it will sharply affect China component factories.

But there has been a stunning bounce-back in the Chinese PMIs for March, a recovery that was as swift as it was unexpected. This is the official data; cue questions on credibility. But it may underpin Western expectations that we will get a similar effect when our virus emergency passes.

Large development deals involving private industry, including many foreign firms, have been signed up in the past week, worth some NZ$100 bln. China is racing to capture more of the world's capital investment budgets.

Meanwhile in the West, it is very much all about economic survival and subsidies. In Canada, it looks like there will need to be a $1 bln bailout or more of public transit systems. And that is probably the tip of a global iceberg.

And the World Bank is warning that after the crisis, there will be growing poverty in most countries that will need to be addressed.

In Australia, consumer confidence has sunk to its lowest on record, and the expectation is that it will fall further from here.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down -0.8% after starting lower, then posting some net gains, only to fall away again in afternoon trading. It's a wild quarter-end settle-up there. Overnight, European markets were all in positive territory again, and yesterday Asian markets booked gains - apart from Tokyo. The NZX50 joined the gainers, the ASX200 fell away with a substantial -2% loss on the day.


You get our daily news coverage free. Corporates are starting to pull advertising. That is a big problem for us. You enjoy reading our website, and I am asking you to Become a Supporter now. I personally want to say a big Thank You. (If you are already a Supporter, you're my hero.)


There are now 647 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another 58 new cases yesterday and well below the 75 new cases the prior day, now in 14 important clusters. One person has now died here. We have 14 people in hospital with the disease, two in ICU.

Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 823,500 with another global pickup in infections overnight especially in the USA where more than 21% of all cases globally are, and up +27,000 in one day. Australia has now over 4500 cases, and 18 deaths. Global deaths now exceed 40,600 and more deaths have been recorded in the US (3415) than China (3309). (The US level is now also higher than the 9/11 deaths.) The Americans are not happy about that stat and are questioning the accuracy of the Chinese data. They probably have a point.

The UST 10yr yield is unchanged today at under 0.67%. Their 2-10 curve is slightly more positive today at +46 bps. Their 1-5 curve is less positive at +20 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is at +61 bps and little-changed. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.76% which is down another -5 bps. The China Govt 10yr is down -3 bps at 2.67%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is going the other way, up +6 bps at 1.09%.

Gold is down sharply today, adding to the recent declines, down another -US$19 today, to US$1,592/oz.

US oil prices are holding at their new low levels today, at just on US$20/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also low at just under US$23/bbl. This is despite US-Russian talks aimed at reversing the price falls. The US is pleading with them to halt output rises in the Russian/Saudi standoff.

The Kiwi dollar is starting today very much softer than this time yesterday ending a week of elevation, now at 59.3 USc and down almost -1c since this time yesterday. On the cross rates we just a little softer at 97.2 AUc, down -¼c. Against the euro however we are much lower, down to 54 euro cents and a fall of -½c. This shift down has taken us back to levels we had at the same time last week where the TWI-5 was at 65.8.

Bitcoin is now at US$6,453 and up less than +1% since this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

129 Comments

It's interesting what the Virologist mentions about this new virus mutating when it reaches other countries and becomes more aggressive. That's exactly what the Spanish Flu did in 1918 but that was spread more slowly due to being limited to boats to transfer on mass. Here's an short documentary on it: 1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary | Swine Flu Pandemic | Deadly plague of 1918. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

Yes that's how they evolve.

Amazing watch. Thank you AndrewJ for the link to Korea Times / virologist information.

That's right goldbugs.

Just here to remind you of US$ 800/oz.

Rest assured, the world has not come to an end. It is only locked down and deflating.

Stay solvent boys and girls <3

Is that your prediction of where its going?

It's either an ice-cream with two scoops, or a very small stick and two cherries!

I thought you were "dun with this site"?

I would not be surprised to see a drop in gold prices in the coming months. Yes, there is a growing disconnect between the paper and physical prices, but despite those at Zero Hedge frothing over it I think it is an at best temporary issue.

I cannot see anything in the region if $800USD however. The strength in gold is largely determined by the strength in the dollar, and in that respect what you are predicting is outrageous.

Any method to your viewpoint, or are you just going to state "I've posted about this before"? I'd be interesting to know.

Hi Masher, a (euro)Dollar shortage + Deflation in the short term.

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World bank warning of impending poverty. Just extend them credit lines, that will fix it.

I live here in Australia and society is basically living off the state at the moment.

Universal income is inevitable, and this coming from a guy that viewed it as laughable a few months ago.

Just need to speed up money printing to pay for it yes?

Which spot would you rather be?

A very good question mate.

Like for like, same economic situations - always Australia. I know is varies from case to case but for me is financial idiocy (from experience) to move back to NZ.

I know we've got this coronavirus pandemic at present, and although perceived differently through some media outlets the reality is we are in lockdown over here (we're not allowed to call it that though). I'd say life would be about the same in both countries at the moment.

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Media all over the world starting to consider their relationship with China.
The Washington Post led the charge last week but the Telegraph in the UK and the Age in Oz are some of the many MSM asking serious questions. The Oz are particularly pissed at the Chinese nicking all their Virus PPE in early March. Foreign purchase of Australian property now needs permission for anything over $0.00
Meanwhile about the only thing Trump is getting right is calling this the China Virus and highlighting how they sat on it for more than a month.

We priced our market to perfection. We don't have many arrows left in the quiver, it's going to hurt.

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Some are now suggesting that China should be forced to pay reparations for it unleashing its Wuhan virus on the world and its accompanying increase in govt debt.
If it does not do so, maybe countries could start thinking about Nationalizing things that China has such as the Darwin port, that Debt Diplomacy one in Sri Lanka or belt and road assets.

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Boycott made in China. Most of it's crap we don't need anyway

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The WHO also needs to take responsibility. They are supposed to be THE neutral global body and yet they denied that the virus was a problem in the early stages and denied need for travel ban with China. A travel ban with China at that time would have still hurt global GDP, still disrupted supply lines but NOTHING like the mess we have now.

Also, the WHO is still pandering to China https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52088167

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Yeah they are a shocker

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The WHO is a joke. Very few believe a thing they say now.

They also said it wasn't a serious threat and there was no evidence of human to human transmission.

Too late. The device you use to access interest.co.nz is likely to be MIC, or at least some components of it.

Most of the margin for complex components in electronics goes to countries like Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Japan and the United States. They're the ones who make the highly technical components like screens, batteries, chips.

It may be assembled in China with Chinese plastic, but actually most of the money you pay is going to other companies in other countries.

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Yep be careful where you buy your protective masks and equipment from: BBC Coronavirus: Countries reject Chinese-made equipment.
"A number of European governments have rejected Chinese-made equipment designed to combat the coronavirus outbreak. Thousands of testing kits and medical masks are below standard or defective, according to authorities in Spain, Turkey and the Netherlands".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52092395

Have you ever visited Kmart?

The French had a navy ( Andrew's lin above). Like as not that will happens to any Australian Navy if they Nationalised China's Darwin outpost.

What you are talking about essentially is the end of globalisation. The question is, will the big players allow it? It only happened as a means for the large conglomerates to make more money faster. For it to end, they will have to accept some level of restraint. How will/could that happen? Don't forget we are basically talking human psychology here, not money theory. Greed and lust for power always wins out!

The same numpty who said on 26/2 that soon the USA would have zero cases? What do you think he would have done with another month?

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The anger hasn't really got going yet, but it will come. The great reset will be the Wests relationship with China.

Investment opportunity. Get the rights to 'NOT MADE IN CHINA !'

His efforts to create a different farming model may have struggled but I enjoy reading the regular articles by Glen Herud. I find them enlightening and thought provoking. I don't always agree. I don't believe he is as pessimistic as he makes out in the above article. Optimism and almost childlike exuberance (a compliment) permeate all his writing - I don't know if Glen knows how to be despondent for very long.

DU

I was thinking like that a year ago as we were due a major slow down / recession and made plans to ready myself for that. Until February I sat there thinking I had made the wrong call but in hindsight, it was spot on.

People are fleeing northern Italy for southern Italy. This will probably get a second wave underway which is unfortunate.

New York has a number of deaths over 1500. There's a doubling in New York state every 1.5 days compared to the US deaths doubling every 3 days.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Plenty of New Yorkers are fleeing the state to head to Florida. Florida isn't really responding with anything, not even social distancing. It looks like Italy and the US have a lot in common which is really bad.

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Asking cities to prepare when they have 15 years to do so is like expecting Auckland to actually build the roads that it needs to function. Having politicians and Mayors investigated by the SFO shows where their priorities really were.

And what state power is thought by many to be involved in the donations to those politicians, perchance...?

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Yes. China has a perfected soft power propaganda arm and its tentacles are everywhere. Even Interest.co is not immune with some of its authors having very, shall we say for diplomacy, strong connections to Beijing through "employment" by Chinese companies. Not that the farmers will ever consider how they are being played.

Wonder if Ximon is planning any more fact finding tours of China over the coming years. He could swing by Wuhan. I understand to encourage tourism they are pairing with a European city. Pripyat.

....and then theres Jian Yang.

Great comment, Smalltown! Spot on...

"unnatural population densities .."

the core of the problem

Yes and at present the world is learning that they can work remotely and don't need the flash Alk office with all its glitz and glamour. Also possible that people will sit up and think about their work life balance more and not want to do the large commutes. Air NZ just announced that they will be international cargo and national transport maybe that is how they see it playing out as well.
Big city property prices could fall hard and provincial NZ to prosper. Alk could be come a manufacturing hub all run remotely.
Guess that isn't what people want to hear but there is a good chance that it could play out like this.

Florida was warned - from March 20: "Kinsa is telling anyone willing to listen — hello, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — exactly where flu-like illnesses are spiking at an anomalous rate, county by county across the U.S. Fevers are a leading indicator of a COVID-19 cluster that requires quick testing and, perhaps, quarantine. A first look shows the New York City area and most of Florida as the worst hot spots right now, with suspected flu-like illness running 2 percent higher than what would be expected in normal conditions."
https://www.ozy.com/the-new-and-the-next/the-man-mapping-coronavirus-wit...

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Incongruous that the USA needs to reassure itself that its death toll is lower than that of China. Absolutely meaningless & counterproductive. We lived for a while in a middle class blue collar neighbourhood of the USA. Great solid community, capable, self reliant, even tempered. Talking to our old neighbours there are now some signs in the locality of general panic emerging. A body count theme of reporting will just add fuel to the fire

How unAmerican!
They ALWAYS have bigger n better

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And it hasn't even hit hard yet. The US is going to be a mess in less than two weeks.
Expect the military to start blockades to keep people in their own cities to stop the spread and that will not go down well.
Same with Ozzy they don't understand how bad it is going to get due to their own procrastination.
Both of them have a high degree of optimism that they are somehow immune to financial and health issues that the rest of the world has to deal with. This isn't something they can throw bullets and money at to overcome, their over inflated patriotism is about to be adjusted.

You know KR thinking about it a bit more this is what the USA stooped down to in the Vietnam war. Think it was called the body bag count. On a daily basis if there are more of theirs than ours, we must be winning. Mind boggling.

Yep, exactly and that was a PR campaign to keep the population in the fight.
Once the body bags start to arrive stateside in mass the public didn't want that war anymore. It broke them. War after that was geared up to limit US deaths by killing from a greater distance. This isn't something a drone can bomb from a thousand Km's away. The US has the 'don't leave anybody behind' mentality and that is going to be shattered once the hospitals all over the country can not cope. That is going to play out badly in the US brain and they will react badly. They will see a shift from USA, USA to ME ME ME.

And on TV1 tonight exactly that same dreadful scenario. Body bags being wheeled out virtually on pallets in NY city. The Americans have not the stomach for these sort of scenes. Then again who would.

This is well worth a watch (from Monday night Mar 30): Coronavirus: 4Corners investigates how coronavirus spread around AUSTRALIA and whether critical mistakes have been made https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NloOWphI5bw

Some on Oz do understand how bad its going to get. On the daily video call with work, one of my co-workers said her daughter who is a nurse aide in Oz told her that they are preparing for things to get bad, they've basically already set out protocols that once the workload is past a certain level, if you are >65yo, you don't get a ventilator, you get put straight into the hastily set up palliative care ward.

That is going to go down like a cup of rotten puke seved in a dirty ashtray. Throw it on top of the bush fires, drought and a massive slow down and Ozzy is broken. If NZ keeps this contained, we may see Ozzies and Kiwi expats throwing in the towel and crossing the ditch in mass.

A mate of mine said this:
"That if shares have dropped by 33 percent you can make 50 percent profit when they go back to the original price."
He might be on to something.

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It works for housing too. If the value of your house goes up by 50% it only takes a 33% drop to eliminate that value.

Nicely put!

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Wait until you factor in leverage... Having crowed about the benefits of leverage over the last 10 years, I think many are about to learn about the flipside! Its going to get very ugly...

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deflation is the arch enemy of leverage

and we have busying leveraging for 40 years

Its going to hurt

StuckAtHome have you missed what's happening? Im not sure how to break this, the flipside is:
1 that the trading banks have come to the aid of mortgage holders with lengthy mortgage holidays, both homeowners and investors benefit
2 the RBNZ has slashed the OCR and both floating and fixed rates are down to the benefit of homeowners and investors
3 the finance minister has a 52B imprest fund which is going to workers and beneficiaries to the benefit of homeowners and tenants (investors indirectly)
Sorry to be the bringer of bad news for you.

No I'm completely up to speed. These measures are all designed to reduce the shock, but the outcome is inevitable:
1. Deferred payment only - might help reduce a sudden fire-sale of properties from people laid off (and hence delay the inevitable correction)
2. Might help to reduce the severity of house price falls, but again will have a big lag as most mortgages are fixed
3. Drop in the ocean... Unemployment to 200k+, reduced incomes for those fortunate enough to be employed, reduced rents - only points to one outcome for house prices.

Hahah that's a dodge from dictator if ever I saw one. You arent one of those who's share portfolio collapsed and you want to spread the pain?

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All asset prices are going to fall. All of them....No one will escape from this unscathed. It's just a matter of how deep the scars are.
(NB: Even those who had the sense, or luck, to be positioned correctly into this, will experience a deterioration of life in general. That's what happens when a society's living standards fall)

Well said.

Even those of us who have seem something like this as inevitable (and have striven to insulate ourselves) will find life of lesser quality.

But we're still ahead of the blind, levered believers.

The big fish (hat tip bw) has arrived to this little corner of interest.co.nz. Thanks for the explanation, I am glad you qualified your statement "it's a matter of how deep". Until this is over there will be many opinions on the housing effect. The effect on shares though is pretty plain, so for those who feel confident and comfortable (no not you bw I'm aware) to have a go then have a go and start small. Ps i wouldn't buy any air nz or tourism holdings right now. Be selective and research the company first

It's a deliberate jab. There's no safe asset class to flee to. I'm expecting dividend payments to be cancelled, people are going to have trouble paying rent, people having issues with mortgage payments and corporations defaulting on bonds. Cash might retain some value in the short term, and bullion is going to be volatile. No one is immune from the financial fall out.

Perhaps some are trusting in the prevailing welfare orthodoxy of the last decade(s), the property prices shall never be allowed to fall and wealth will be reallocated as needed to make this so.

I think those that are old enough to have lived through tough times are looking back through rose tinted glasses.

Key word here is "when"
People v keen on quoting stocks return since 1980.
Year 1910 - 2015, NYSE returned 1.3% over inflation.
1929-53 it did not move AT ALL.
1973-79 it fell.
Inconvenient facts eh

Yes. If prices drop by 50%, they then have to rise by 100% (double) to get back to where they were before.

Creates great buying opportunities for those in position. The fears have calmed quite a bit from 8 to 10 days ago but at one point there was a lot of needless selling at price levels below what they were 5 years ago. Crazy but it is a free world... Pandemic or Pandemonium what's the difference.

'when' is the problematic part of that sentence.

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Late last night the IRD emailed this out:

Inland Revenue will write-off any penalties and interest for businesses unable to pay taxes on time due to the impact of COVID-19. Don’t worry about contacting us right now. Get in touch with us when you can.

So, don’t worry says the IRD. Never thought I would see the day.

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it just shows you ALL the rules no longer apply
anything to keep this old girl on the road ...

This was always the nub of the problem.

The old paradigm is doomed, a new has to be created, and those who set up new-oriented structures (like Transition Towns, or Farmer's Markets) are not in demand until the tidal-wave breaks. So they chug along voluntarily, as a discretion, and will be inadequate when the demand cascades.

Excuse my ignorance but what is a transition town?
Edit: have since googled so nevermind.

The have thrown in the white towel.

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"But there has been a stunning bounce-back in the Chinese PMIs for March" - first Tui Ad for April.

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What im hearing is there has been a bounce in March as factories come back online but in the last week have been met by an avalanche of cancelled orders from the West. I suspect its a dead cat bounce.....

The Chinese economy is going to pay a heavy price for what they unleashed upon the World.

they are reaching out to NZ business but most are deferring orders or cancelling as they manage cashflow and don't know when things will improve.
and I suspect it is the same all over the world
makes you feel good that NZ is a primary producer and we are in a different situation, our food is wanted more now

An economist was just on RadioNZ predicting house price gains of 10% this year. Safe and solid housing, very low interest rates, most people in good paying jobs will retain them.

We should be challenging RNZ.

They are public broadcasting, no commercial irons in the fire. (Theoretically. One assumes the Board has remnant political-appointee overtones).

But they are hell-and-gone from understanding resource draw-down, overshoot, degradation and the Limits to Growth. They're away back at the 'balance between environment and development' stage - a 1980's level of discussion. Still believing in 'money', refusing to acknowledge it is 'debt'. We are entering a new paradigm, one long predicted by some of us. It will not be like the old paradigm. Which means that those with their hands up the Shane Jones puppet, are on the wrong track.

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/people-get-ready/

" How will the big cities be able to manage their infrastructures with municipal bonds massively failing? How will they provide social services when tax revenues are down to a trickle? The answer is, they won’t manage any of this. They grew too big and too complex. Now they have to get smaller, and the process will not be pretty"

Exactly - Its the shift from (non resilient) complexity of supply chains to local and simple where the pain will come ...

Economists, other than Equub and Robin and Keen, I am afraid, predict all sorts of bull and no come back for being wrong.
Housing market at present is a total irrelevance.

"Economists other than Equub ... predict all sorts of bull and no come back for being wrong."
April fools joke hahaha you had me going there Mike starting at the very first word economist.

Eaqub is a left-wing activist dressed up as an economist.

This is the guy who told people not to buy in 2014 just before the property market took off. Talk about predicting bull and being wrong.

He blithely upstaged one of Phil's housing announcements and virtually took the mic off him to state that 100 thousand was not enough of a target. Friggin goood. I see where he is coming from but he has it all wrong, on that basis he'd make a good polly and win a tonne of votes ... I had better shutup

Shams for Minister of Finance!!!

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UK scientists advising government that China under-reported deaths by "15-40 times"
So, yes USA "as a point"
UK too is under-reporting.
Also, notice 18 reported deaths in Australia, v 4500 cases. Errr??? That is 0.004% death rate when average for world is 4.5%. Questions please.

NZ is under reporting too. The NZ testing regime has been designed to significantly underestimate the spread of COVID 19. What is not identified, is not recorded and what is not recorded is not included in the stat. Easy as.
WHO has lost so much credibility over this (sucking up to China instead of acting independently) that they will be better of being dissolved. I understand that COVID 19 does signifies the ever increasing importance of global cooperation for future similar events. But that is exactly why WHO must go! an international organsiation than can stand up to US, China, Russia, UK and France is needed.

"designed"
That implies intention to mislead... or is it the lack of available test kits? Testing to be ramped up ...

The government has been saying that there is no shortage of capacity from the get go. So I have to assume that they did it to mislead.

When do you think we will get the more accurate infection rate figures. When those come out then some of the public could be rightly miffed at the tight LD imo. The govt could delay the release

BBC Coronavirus: US Navy captain pleads for help over outbreak. "The captain of a US aircraft carrier carrying more than 4,000 crew has called for urgent help to halt a coronavirus outbreak on his ship.
Scores of people on board the Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for the infection. The carrier is currently docked in Guam". https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52110298

shouldn't have put into port. He's basically screwed unless he can off load all those positives and stop the spread on board. If the complement are clean, and I'm picking there are a few navy ships that will be, then the best place to be is at sea. Do UNREPs until everything is back under control. Will be painful though.

There would have been crews flying in from stateside on a regular basis anyway, so even if they'd stayed at sea they still would have ended up as a floating petridish. Hopefully they can generate some good data on the R number in a closed environment.

Plus a generally young demographic with few, if any co-morbidities.

Yes it will be revealing. I reckon about four times as bad as normal flu, probably a lot less as the patients will be quite fit.

"On Sunday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said in a statement that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could be prescribed to teens and adults with COVID-19 "as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," after the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization. (EUA) That marked the first EUA for a drug related to COVID-19 in the U.S., according to the statement."
https://www.newsweek.com/fda-says-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-can-use...

"When economies contract, life expectancy declines, due to, among other things, a rise in poverty, violent crime and suicide. During the global financial crisis of 2007– 09, the suicide rate in the United States increased by 4.8% according to the Center for Disease Control and in Europe by 6.5% according to the World Health Organisation. Philip Thomas, professor of risk management at Bristol University, has calculated that if the UK’s GDP falls by more than 6.4% per person as a result of the lockdown, more years of life will be lost than saved, using Dr Ferguson’s estimates. Professor Thomas points out that GDP per head fell by 6% in the UK during the financial crash of 2007 – 09 and many economists are predicting the negative impact of the lockdown will be at least twice as large."
https://thecritic.co.uk/has-the-government-over-reacted-to-the-coronavir...

The best science in the world has modelled that without lockdowns and government intervention, 40 million would die.

And if you think that many dying wouldn't just trigger people to naturally self isolate and live in fear in their homes anyway, if you think that letting the virus run rough shod across the world, wouldn't have created a much worse or at the very least, equal recession anyway, you are deeply deeply deluded and in denial still.

Run rough shod? Korea and Singapore have demonstrated what can be done without a lock down. Real world examples vs. a 40 million dead model.

"During the coronavirus task force briefing on Wednesday, Dr. Deborah Birx reiterated why the media's apocalyptic projections about the Wuhan coronavirus are not only frightening but also misleading.
...With some projections showing that 50 or 60 percent of the population could become infected with the virus, Dr. Birx explained why such projections are so misleading.
"The only way that happens," Dr. Brix explained, "is if this virus remains continuously moving through populations in this cycle, in the fall cycle, and another cycle, so that's through three cycles with nothing being done."
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/03/25/dr-brix-caution...

It's not a good argument to call people deeply deluded and in denial. I will tend to dismiss the entire argument after reading that.

Also "the best science in the world" - the ones who recommended not wearing masks?

I am not a fan of his, but this is good from Shane Jones:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/120725850/coronavirus-govt-wont-...

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as someone that started his working career at the MOW I would love to see it return, they trained so many trades people, and they were trained well, it was a major training department for NZ.
when it was closed along with railways and that role was handed back to private enterprise guess what happened, now we just import tradespeople from overseas

Same with NZED

I was talking to a farming friend this morning about exactly this, councils and roading spend need to change big. The days of contracting out and getting patchwork jobs needs to end.

And we need to decentralise too with more regional hubs. Young people could leave school get a local cadetship and become a qualified civil engineer (or mechanic, or fitter etc etc) all while staying in their local area.

Maybe NZ First will do much better in the election than we thought a month ago?

Nationalisation is always a likely scenario in a downturn. Probably a good thing.

'Twyford believes a major lesson learnt from past failures to get big infrastructure projects off the ground was that there has been a lack of capacity to drive them forward at the scale needed.

"Government needs to have strong organisations capable of making these big projects happen," Twyford said.

If it is run by the govt especially this one) it is going to be a shambles despite their PR BS and non measurement or accountability.

Why are NZpost bonds trading up at 7%, when Wellington airport bonds are 3%. Has someone got a fright, or plain just no buyers.

On a similar line, why are buyers demanding higher yields for infratil bonds, which repay in cash, at the same time as infratil shares are holding up, after earlier drops. I would have thought the bonds have better yield and security than their shares in the current market.

Even after today's new FIMA repo facility scheme, the greenback rose on strong demand, something they are trying to prevent.
What Is The Fed’s New FIMA? The Potential For A SHADOW Shadow Run Is Very Real

Published data.
What happened with one index case in a care facility.

https://youtu.be/NV72c3l_0jo
1 to 165 cases.
USA.

Really interesting video.

The RBNZ has since March 20 been providing liquidity in the FX swap market

The RBNZ has been in and out of this market continuously over recent months - detail section 7 and 10

From 20 March 20 it reinstated publication of FX swaps intervention, previously suspended by ex Deputy Governor Grant Spencer.

It's worse than what is described. Why? Because by bailing them out, they are also actively encouraging them to keep doing it again and again. The insanity of this system which enables people to borrow money which is spent on buybacks (which enriches the people doing it) then bails them out when this exact thing get's them into trouble...

People should be very, very angry that their children are being asked to pay for corporate greed. However the complacency you see in people does not make it at all surprising. Don't worry everyone, just go and watch another episode of your favourite reality TV show and zone out instead of thinking about your children's future.

I made my teenage daughters watch The Big Short with me yesterday.

Just to recap -. The guys who knowingly created the GFC got bailed out and then used the money to pay themselves big bonuses.

It was interesting to watch it again, as the numbers seemed huge a few years back - 3 billion, 15 billion etc - as we stare down a potential 2 - 4 trillion bailout it seems like chump change.

Peak Prosperity guy

https://youtu.be/-5bTkoHt-kk

Michael Reddell has a couple of posts spanning yesterday and today (April Fool's day, remember....). He makes a couple of very pertinent points:
Infrastructure:

And if there is a strategy it appears to be infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure…..without much regard for the twin facts that (a) whatever infrastructure projects might have passed decent cost-benefit tests six months ago now (a subset of those actually approved), fewer will today, and (b) relatedly, whatever we thought we needed six months ago, we will need less in the next few years. I’m not opposed to sound infrastructure projects getting accelerated go-ahead, in principle, but if the government believes high-speed rail from Auckland to Tauranga or Hamilton, or lots more Island Bay cycleways, are the answers, they will simply be on the path to making us poorer.

And on the Saint Michael Joseph Savage comparisons:

Labour might have a sentimental attachment to the man – who seems mostly to have been a decent sort as an individual – but it is distinctly unnerving when one reads senior government figures, including Grant Robertson, evoking those times and policies as an example for now. Did I mention that part of what that government kicked off was the retreat from the world – going into the 1930s we had probably the highest per capita exports of any country. This time we start already having the lowest share of GDP accounted for by exports of any modestly-sized advanced country. We need an outward focus, as much as possible, to whatever extent is reasonably possible, not a guiding philosophy that thinks we can get rich mostly, as a very small country, simply by taking in each others’ washing.

Superb

Makes the whole obsession with property investment instead of productive export business that much more regrettable.

Estimates about the collapse of share buybacks emerge
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/31/estimates-about-the-collapse-of-share-...

Chiefio (E.M.Smith) has sound advice about the YoYo Support Principle re WuFlu. Core elements - PPE to the max possible if venturing out to shop, and asymptomatic spread/super-spreaders as the biggest threat.

Here is the value of the Epidemic Response Committee.

https://youtu.be/fBQXvPnjHDU
That it needed to pull the govt along is frustrating.

Todays briefing.
Think about who is not there.
What's not said.

Its confirmed there is to be more testing.
Its expected there will be more cases, based on the more testing.

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/live-61-new-covid-19-cases

Meaning of the term Triage in hospital situation.

DW news.
https://youtu.be/HOpDcuPDmIc

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