American jobless claims surge again; US Fed adds US$2.3 tln of expanded help; Canada's jobless in huge spike; China's food prices up +13%; Aussies rush for cash; UST 10yr yield at 0.73%; oil lower and gold higher; NZ$1 = 60.8 USc; TWI-5 = 67

American jobless claims surge again; US Fed adds US$2.3 tln of expanded help; Canada's jobless in huge spike; China's food prices up +13%; Aussies rush for cash; UST 10yr yield at 0.73%; oil lower and gold higher; NZ$1 = 60.8 USc; TWI-5 = 67
Sunrise at Waihi Beach

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the giant American economy is still taking body blows.

In the US, efforts to keep businesses operating and workers employed have so far failed to stop massive job losses as the economic impacts of the virus tear through their economy in devastating ways. Consumer sentiment is diving, as you would expect.

The number of claims for unemployment benefits came in with another huge jump, adding +6.6 mln people last week to the prior week's +6.9 mln (itself revised higher). And don't forget the +3.3 mln in the week earlier than that. In these three weeks that is almost +17 mln people suddenly out of work on top of those that have had hours or pay cut but still retain their jobs. Officially, their unemployment rate has been said to jump to 5.5% (from 4.4% in March and 3.5% in February) but with plummeting participation, the labour force impacts will be far higher than that.

The US Fed has vastly expanded its backstop lending to companies that are now in dire straits, chiming in with a new US$2.3 tln program on top of the trillions previously announced. It's a move so big that essentially, the US Fed now controls the US bond market. And it is a move that has the Fed supporting companies with risky debt situations. The Fed finds itself completely unsupported by the fiscal authorities, applying monetary solutions to a fiscal problem.

And just how un-resilient the American Federal fiscal resources are, was emphasised today by the state of their financial position. The federal budget deficit grew 8% in the first six months of the fiscal year, as government spending outpaced federal tax receipts, and that was before the big hit expected from the pandemic. For the year to March, they had a budget deficit of -US$1.04 tln, up 20% in a year and 2¼ times higher than the situation this Administration inherited. By any standard, its a record of mismanagement in "the good times" making them uniquely vulnerable now "bad times" have arrived. They damaged rather than repaired the roof when the sun was shining.

It is not only the Americans who are suffering. North of the border, more than 1 mln Canadians lost their jobs in March and that was double the level analysts were expecting and a breathtaking surprise. Officially, their unemployment rate jumped to 7.8% but of course with a labour force of 20 mln, and a rapid fall in the participation rate, the real jobless levels will be far higher than that.

In China, their consumer price rises are moderating, taking their recent CPI jumps lower in March. Their CPI was up +4.3% and down from the February increase of +5.2%. Still, food prices rose more than +13% of which beef prices were up +22% and lamb prices up +12%. There were big falls for fuel, and for fresh fruit. Prices are not rising in the industrial sector however, in fact declining as deflation sets in there again after a brief respite.

And new loans extended by Chinese banks surged in March, their aggregate financing hit a record high and their money supply grew at the fastest pace in three years, after a big pump of liquidity to support their economy. New bank lending climbed to NZ$670 bln in March, surging from NZ$215 bln in February.

In Australia, their reserve bank has revealed (top of page 11) that extra cash had to be emergency trucked to bank vaults after depositors rushed to withdraw large amounts - in some cases millions of dollars - when the markets tanked last month because of fears about the pandemic.

Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 1,673,000 and up +208,000 this time on Thursday which is a rising tide. Now, more than 29% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +83,000 since Thursday to 486,500. This is a faster rate of increase. Less than 6% of all US cases have recovered so far. China's recovery rate is now 94% and they claim they only have 5100 active cases nationwide now. Australia has now over 6200 cases, 5000 active, and while the rise in infection is slowing, deaths are not and now exceed 54.

Global deaths now exceed 100,000. Death rates in Europe are frightening and rising; the death rate in Italy is up to almost 13%, in the UK to just over 12%, and in Spain is touching 10%. But they are much lower elsewhere in Europe. The US rate is up to just over 3.7% and now exceeds 18,000 people and about to soar past Italy's level.

There are now 1283 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +44 new cases on Friday and lower than the +29 +50 increase on Thursday. That is the lowest daily increase in two weeks. The number of clusters remains at 12. Now two people have died here, and there are 16 people in hospital with the disease, with five in ICU, and two of those are in a critical condition. The latest death is a woman in her nineties from a nursing home in Christchurch. 29% of all New Zealand cases have now recovered.

In New York, equity markets ended Thursday up +1.5% and that caps a weekly gain of +4.6% for the S&P500. That means since the peak on February 19, the S&P500 is now down 'only' -17.6%, dragging the losses below the -20% bear market definition.

The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at just on 0.73%. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged today at +49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is less positive at +16 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also flatter at +54 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.99% and a rise of +1 bp. The China Govt 10yr is up +3 bps at 2.54%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down a sharp -11 bp at 0.98% and unusually lower than the Australian level.

Gold is up sharply again, up by +US$44 to US$1,686/oz.

US oil prices are a little lower at just on US$23/bbl, down -US$1/bbl. The Brent benchmark has stayed low at just on US$32/bbl. This fall comes despite a Saudi-Russian agreement to cut output, probably because the agreed cuts were far less than markets expected. And the US rig count took another steep drop in the past week, down to 602. That is a cumulative fall from 805 at the start of 2020 and down from 1,022 a year ago which was just after its recent peak.

But the Kiwi dollar has strengthened further against the greenback, up now to 60.8 USc. On the cross rates we are lower however at 95.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 67 and its highest in a month.

Bitcoin is now at US$6,875 and a -6% fall from where we left it on Thursday, a fall said to be based on "profit-taking". The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

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224 Comments

26
up

The US equity markets remind me of Wile E. Coyote, legs spinning, suspended in mid air at the end of the cliff. We all know what comes next!

Are you certain it is not a case of they know something you don't......

This end of history rhetoric is getting tiresome.

Have a look at what the stock market did in the depression: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/Harga_Saham_Wall_Str...

We're about 6 weeks into this.

This downturn is likely to be somewhere between the GFC and the great depression, with more downside risk that it'll be even worse than that.

There are the monetarists, who believe that the Great Depression started as an ordinary recession, but that significant policy mistakes by monetary authorities (especially the Federal Reserve) caused a shrinking of the money supply which greatly exacerbated the economic situation, causing a recession to descend into the Great Depression.

The money supply is on an exponential trajectory and another great depression won't happen, but there is a hyperinflation risk. A share that was $10 can be bought today for $5. How many deflated dollars will you require to buy it in 5 years time? We might end up with $100 cauliflowers!
Ben Bernanke What tools does the Fed have left? Part 3: Helicopter money

Money supply irrelevant cf velocity of money.
Banks do not send it out to wider economy as too focussed on equity in housing
2008 nothing compared to what is coming.
Australian central bank still saying usual mantra about how sound their banks are.
What are those banks equity ? House loans. Yes, an asset is in fact a debt. A debt many no cannot pay.
Prices fall, equity falls, share price falls, I won't bother with rest.
EU banks are worse. Of course ur elite did 12 years of extend and pretend and here we are again

Look at all those dead cat bounces.

One for each life, it seems...

I would argue we (as talking, thinking primates) really don't have any idea. Yes we can look to the past and seem doooom and glooom but I am still optimistic. Are there difficult days ahead - certainly. Will things change - yes - but how cannot readily be determined.People will made educated guesses but they are just guesses - and of them are just WAG's - wild arse guesses. If we adopt a pessimistic attitude at the outset we condemn ourselves from the start. The government has a model of how the pandemic was likely to evolve - they have used that as a justification for the lock-down but the true evolution of the pandemic is actually unknown. Firstly because our behaviour has been modified and secondly we just don't have the data. Iceland has tested 10% of it's population but

"To be clear, Iceland has not yet been able to provide definitive explanations for the most pressing coronavirus questions vexing scientists, politicians and public the world over."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120966816/coronaviru...

The idea of testing the entire population has it's flaws also - it only gives a snapshot of a particular day and time - it is not a time series of information. In the future we may have a better understanding of the virus but at present I would argue it is mostly speculation and really some bad conclusions (eg 5G is associated with Covid19).

Yes looking a graph for the 6 million people out of work it does look almost comical (Nice graph comparison in the attached BBC article). Not sure how Trump is going to survive this major balls up for the next election. BBC Coronavirus: US weekly jobless claims hit 6.6 million. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52231929

With the economy tanking, I doubt that anyone would want to take on the fix it job that is basically impossible. May as well step back and watch Trump struggle and fail then come in.

Yep that's basically why Sanders bowed out, no point in fighting for vital infrastructure and medical care reform when their economy is rapidly disappearing down the plug hole. Though apparently since Boris is recovering from the coronavirus, Trump feels that Boris will shoot up in the popularity ratings, to quote Trump in a recent press briefing; "Boris Johnson's popularity must be 300% - Trump". So lets hope that he might think his getting the virus will give in the ratings boost that he so desires above anything else. ;)

How is Trump going to survive?

Well, he's focusing first on removing all oversight from how he can distribute stimulus money to mates.

Read that there are more. The key constraint is the processing capacity of initial jobless claims ...

So far about 16mn in last 3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/Mr_Brownstein/status/1248689682474549249

Remember the St Louis FED estimates potential unemployment of 30%.

Lyn Alden, in laymen's terms, where the USA is headed for:

https://www.lynalden.com/great-depression/

Followed by the mass burials, you'd think that plague pits couldn't exist any more in a Western country. BBC Drone footage shows mass burials in New York. "Operations in Hart Island, which has been used to hold mass graves for 150 years, has ramped up". https://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audio/headlines/52243289/coronavirus-...

Would be amazing to see someone do that kind of analysis for NZ.

I am struggling to see any way of avoiding a really bad time here unless we crank up QE until we get inflation 5 -10% above interest rates. It is grabbing the tiger by the tail though.

US dollar was worth 1/20th of an Oz of gold.
$84.15 if it was the same today. That is a serious loss of buying power.

Long but very thorough article thanks and backs up what I've read elsewhere, first deflation, then inflation. That's my take on it anyway.

39
up

It's going to be a bad time to be a landlord if there is nobody working. They may actually have to pay their own way in life and not leech off other peoples hard work. What a shame!!! This horrible coronavirus may actually be the great leveller that this society needed, bringing fairness back to the world.

18
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Not just landlords but those that get interest and dividends, excessive salaries, bonuses, all leeching off other people's hard work when you think about it.

Pretty much defining capitalism there Zach - well done!

10
up

The issue you see & describe are the Rentiers.

Rentiers have always been problem.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/books/2016/oct/26/the-c...

11
up

Oh no problem for the leechs. They have their hooks in tight.
Think Universities and local government salaries and all the rest.
Not going to share the pain.

This from someone who the other day complained that

"They're costing me money!"

Are you a socialist or a capitalist or only a socialist when it suits you.

33
up

Yes it'll be great to see one less distortion in the property market. People who were born earlier than others that use some imaginary wealth in their house as a down payment to outbid future generations out of home ownership, using resulting house price inflation from rampant investor activity as a means to justify the need for their existence.

23
up

It's a ponzi - the last one in loses. Which I think will be the FHB's (or any of those crazy investors) the last 5 years or so. They're left carrying to debt so that older generations can have high valuations on their properties.

22
up

The major losers are going to be the short term lets and Airbnb's, there's going to be very few locals that can afford to go on holiday right now and as for international tourists renting them, we'll that could be a distant memory for a while.

Not being able to afford to go holidaying and tripping around the world is not going to be confined to NZ

44
up

I will be fuming if government gives any assistance to landlords.
If they are in trouble sell and give someone else a home at what the real market can afford.
They will most likley make a loss but thats life

23
up

Completely agree. Its all about sticks and carrots. And we've been feeding carrots to fools when they need sticks - its destroying the quality of our society.

47
up

Given how vehemently landlords opposed a capital gains tax, it would be the height of hypocrisy to expect a bailout. If you aren't willing to pay your fair share of tax when times are good, you are on your own when times are bad.

22
up

Govt has been subsidizing them for years, they even call it a rental subsidy.
That should end right now, then we will see true house prices. And save the country billions on the way.
Let's make it a real reset....

It will be a reset and no thanks to government or bank or any agency.

You can include most "Government" MP's with rentals in catering for their own tax free nest and pocket...sadly.
So little honest chance of a fair outcome for poor people. Real markets have been plundered and abused and leveraged, beyond all common sense. Key figures fixed it and benefited mightily. Reversing that trend...fat chance...I am afraid.
Supporting the ponzi will be their main aim.

10
up

Not for me. My tenants have the fortune to be civil servants (one a teacher, the other a policy wonk). They have the good fortune to be on a taxpayer funded holiday indefinitely (having only recently received very generous salary increases, and already looking forward to the next). How lucky they are!

Good for you Jack

Yes the ten yrs experience teachers recently got the 14k increase agreement to 90k, guaranteed income. A good tenant for you yes.

If your tenants are civil servants they are unlikely to be on 'holiday'. They are most likely working from home, and may even be busier than usual getting ready to start teaching online or working on the response (depending on what policy area your tenant works in).

How lucky they are? How about how lucky YOU are to have tenants with secure jobs who will keep paying your rent...

10
up

It doesn't preclude they might want to move to either a nicer property, or a cheaper property as rents come down. A nice ex Airbnb for the same money?

Heaven forbid his golden goose goes missing.

Its not missing, its on the rotisserie next door :)

11
up

Lucky they are, who will be able to purchase their own home in the very near future

C'mon FB both private & commercial Landlords have been announced often here as providing 'Essential service'. Now, as we speak - All those govt loan borrowed from future, to subsidy workers wages that lost jobs.. more than half of each amount individually credited to the workers bank account, it already being 'AP/automatic payment' by workers bank account straight to the Landlords.. 'it's contractual obligation'.

16
up

While I agree we need to restore a balance in our housing markets - the current situation is cripplingly our societal cohesion. I feel this constant attck on landlords is unjustified. I think we can agree that there are some terrible and greedy landlords. But the majority of landlords are middle class "mum and dad" investors (you can look up the stats).

Mostly that are just trying to get a bit extra for retirement or their children's future (but of course taking someone else's future). Housing was seen as a safe tangible investment over shares.

But this situation was created by the central banks, governments and the big wall Street guys. Instead of sucking it up after the GFC they did everything they could to keep the party going which lead to massive inflation in asset prices.

So instead of spending your energy attacking the people who are the symptom of the problem, maybe you could attack the cause of the problem which is poor leadership and greed AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS - if people could regulate themselves we wouldn't need governments.

Also there's lots of industry's that just clip the ticket, do supermarkets really add any value - they take farmers, and factory's work and just mark up and pass on. Or a hire company like Hirepool - they have something you need so you pay them to use it then give it back - you must really hate them!

Then there's the arguement about how houses are essential and shouldn't be for profit. Do we expect Doctors, Teachers, farmers to work for free and not make a profit?

All I'm really asking is that you be consistent and balanced - and by you I mean all the people who seem to just zero in on landlords - and go after the actual cause of the issue and not the symptoms.

36
up

Funny how you say Mum and Dad investors who just want a little bit extra for their retirement and their kids. But by going to auctions and out bidding their kids, how are they helping them? I personally find that there have been many Mum and Dad investors running on FOMO who are like stuff the next generation - I'm buying as many properties as I can.

If they're crazy enough to buy multiple properties and they tank I feel no sorrow for them. The greed on display in NZ (and other countries) wrt property post GFC has been embarrassing - disgraceful even.

11
up

Corona Virus has pressed Reset Button.

Wait and See.

26
up

They are not outbidding their kids- they are outbidding other people's children. Because who cares if other people's children can't afford decent housing, right?

Yep and they may have to give up some of those houses when their children find out they have lost their jobs and careers with this mess. Unless they work for government. .

15
up

You must call things by their right name. Greed is greed and apathy is apathy. Many mothers and fathers have been greedy and apathetic in their willingness to collude with banks to wage financial warfare on future generations by depriving them of home ownership. If the central and retail banks are the Devils then property investors are beelzebub's handmaidens, "mums and dads" included. Their signatures were needed to create the unproductive debt that inflated house prices higher and they were more than willing to sign.

Great term.."wage economic warfare"

15
up

Societal cohesion relies greatly on people having a stake in their community and the best stake one can have is the ownership of their own home, which of course, means landlords need not apply. The sooner that starts happening again, the sooner we will see more of the cohesion you seem to crave.

13
up

The situation was created by the banks, yes - but the Mum and Dad investors who took full advantage, knowing full well they were contributing to screwing over the generation that followed, deserve blame too. It's not as if buying a house was ever the only option available for putting something away for the future.

Yes the banks were the enablers, cheered on by the REI/media, with the politicians conveniently looking away. The Mum and Dad "investors" were just the vehicles of convenience that allowed banks to offload risk and make huge profits. Obscene

Annual NPAT for NZ Banks
2019 $5.71billion
2018 $5.77billion
2017 $5.15billion
2016 $4.80billion
2015 $5.13billion

"But this situation was created by the central banks, governments and the big wall Street guys."
" the cause of the problem which is poor leadership and greed AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS".

Imposition of a maximum debt to income measure requested by the RBNZ as a macro-prudential measure to ensure financial stability was reportedly stopped and not approved by one decision maker. That decision maker has now left the political scene, leaving their successors of the next few generations to clean up. Had this been instituted, this would have reduced the magnitude of the current issues, and the impact on future generations. That was one key policy decision that will have ramifications for generations to come.

Since then property prices have continued to rise.

But lets just remember that when it turns into a bloodbath that having some of the worlds most expensive celebrating 'is worth celebrating' (JK/BE).

For owner occupiers:

1) Ireland instituted debt to income limits of 3.5x - http://www.moneyguideireland.com/new-lending-limits-for-mortgages.html
2) UK instituted debt to income limits of 4.5x

Imagine if these limits had been introduced in NZ before property prices got above, say, a house price to income ratios 5.5-6.0x.

Imagine indeed. It is election year after all. 3-4x income policy would see Labour rule alone.

Agree entirely. Adding to the problem, many of those at the very top have made most investment returns not meet investment risk. Failed finance companies, exorbitant directorships and executive salaries, share buy backs for the benefit of the a for mentioned, insider trading, and poor dividends.
Thus encouraging those that have spare to invest, to look towards the tangible and reasonably uncomplicated residential property.

To be fair it is going to be a helluva lot worse for tenants living on the streets.

11
up

If they're on the streets they aren't tenants..

Somehow I don't think there will be many tenants living on streets, especially if empty Air BnBs make themselves back onto the rental market. The properties that fail to find tenants in the short term will likely drop their rent expectations until a tenant is found.

where are Air BnBs properties located though? what are their average size? how many of them are entire houses in locations with work? unless we know the answer to these questions, it is a little bit premature to assess they becoming available to the rental market on rent. What about hotels sitting empty? quite a few of them are in good, central locations, maybe they start letting their space to residential tenants now?
imagine that, I think the government can house everyone on their house lists in these hotels and motels for a reasonable price for at least the next couple of years.

Great questions. I don't think anyone can quantify that for you, but relax the market isn't going anywhere but up.

Hotels, well LOL that's another story all together. They'll just be empty forever eh? No way they'll encroach into the rental market.......

By the way you're screaming "overleveraged".

Nah. They just squat in the empty houses.

Could live in a caravan, bet they are going cheap at the moment too. Once domestic travel eases up, working remotely from a caravan sounds pretty nice to me!

Death rates in Europe are not that frightening. You only get counted as infected if you end up in hospital.

Except, why worldwide borders are shut? - answer for NZ, let's bring back the blue team.. to do the 'selective opening', we need capital $$$!

25
up

You're blinded by the need for more.... Have you seen the carnage that type of thinking has cost the UK and New York? Thank God we don't have the ineptitude of National running the country... Our health care system would have been overwhelmed!

I'm glad you catches my sarc.. I'm beyond ineptitude of blue team selection, my sickness is more terminal than you with regard to them..to the point? of .. I just realised what might needed to 'accelerate' the inevitable... when plane is going down? I won't choose expert pilot, I put the opposite. Now, you know how sick the state of affairs is.

I hear you KO...

Yes - it will be interesting to see how the "Remain" feel in the UK now about their open border policy.

DP

What's scary is when you look at it, the Fed are the financial market at present in the US - and they don't create earnings. So how do you go about pricing anything over there? You can't discount future earnings of zero.

lots of their stuff is still up and running. It’s not like here where the whole economy is shut down.

Our whole economy has not shut down .... about 30% (essential workers) at least are working, not counting those who are able to work from home.

How about that earnings 'from offshore', surely you've read on this website.. that Mr Orr+team has decided to buy another two years of phantom numbers from US?

Earnings? Come on man, things are different this time, you don't need earnings anymore!

another +44 new cases on Friday and lower than the +50 increase on Thursday.

Wasn't there only 29 new cases on Thursday?

aagh! correct. fixed now.

Higher infection rate yesterday maybe the result of higher testing rates.

Maybe
But maybe just a little fluctuation.

You forgot to mention two deaths. Average age 85 or so. In both cases, neither was said to be caused by coronavirus, but by coronavirus linked symptoms. And they wonder why we all want to go to our cribs for the weekend. The stats show how much harm we are doing by shifting our bubbles around. As this philosophy driven project goes on, more and more Kiwis will refuse to put up with it, and those in control will be even more shrill and unbalanced than they are now. The next few weeks will be great fun and full of entertainment.

The first lady that died was only 74. She had some minor lung disease that was well controlled by medication and was fit and active - gardened and chopped her own firewood (according to an interview with her daughter).

Corrrection? "There are now 1283 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +44 new cases on Friday and *higher* than the *+29* increase on Thursday

No need to worry about a bank run, people only taking out a few million (per person) at a time!

David - you wouldn't have a link to this by chance would you?

I know that I had family in various parts of the country that were taking out tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars last month - many hiding in their homes or backyards! They were very concerned about a run on the banks here (obviously).

Try and open an account in Oz. $250k deposits guaranteed. This list shows the banks are the same banks that we have here so why are we left in such a risky position?

https://www.apra.gov.au/list-of-authorised-deposit-taking-institutions-c...

Unless? if perhaps you take that big chunk of yours then move it to OZ bank that not leverage heavily into RE loan book?eg. Ag banks?

"if perhaps you take that big chunk of yours then move it to OZ bank"

That is the reason for implementing bank deposit guarantee in NZ. If people in NZ feel their deposits are unsafe, then that is exactly the behaviour that the RBNZ is trying to prevent.

If one nearby country does it, then other countries need to do it to reduce the likelihood of movement of cash by depositors. This happened in Europe during the GFC, when there were deposits leaving Greek banks and into German banks.

It is also why the NZ government did it during the GFC on a temporary basis.

The link is in the paragraph above. Here it is again, see the top of page 11.

Thank you

Could a bank run actually happen?

A bank run on cash can only happen if the banks actually open. Currently they are closed, although that's odd because banks are deemed essential and it's hard to see why bank tellers can't work if checkout operators can.
The daily withdrawal limit on ATMs is $2000. There may be a very slow run happening at ATMs with those small amounts dripping out.
I'll be interested to see if banks open again once we move to Level 3. If they do, I wouldn't be surprised to find there is a limit of, say, $10,000 a day.

I read somewhere that a $10,000 limit has now been activated.

There were forms of effective stops in place before the lockdown! By around 5 days before LD withdraws had cleaned out the usual cash reserves.... many branches had run out of cash and so then there was a wait to for the physical cash to arrive. At that point...you couldn't just walk in a take your cash out....you had to fill in a form and wait and number of days. The bank clerks were reminding every person withdrawing their savings that they would only be insured via their contents insurance up to $10k also. They were really trying to dissuade people from making the withdrawals!

I could be construed that the RBNZ topped up the supply of notes in banks' vault storage in Dec '19, presumably at their request - view data.

Here is one example of the effect that this Chinese virus has had on Kiwisaver returns. Sure, its published at the recent low point which was pretty much at the end of last month. But that may only be a local minimum? Who knows.
https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/kiwisaver/returns-to-investors.html
But its a graphic example of how this rhetoric that in the long term, growth stocks are better. Well it all depends on what the two dates are. Notice the "since inception" figures: all very even. Punters may remember that just after kiwisaver started there was a risk off period where stocks dropped. So that is included in the since inception figures.
Its quite a fascinating table.

Here is one example of the effect that this Chinese virus has had on Kiwisaver returns.

Hmmmm... I am not so sure, investors can be their own worst enemy.

Our view is that no form of investment risk is always worth taking without regard to valuations, fundamentals, economic conditions, or market action. The strategy of buying and holding index funds for the long run is essentially a strategy that says that market risk is always worth taking. Yet the iron law of investing is that a security is nothing but a claim on a future stream of cash flows. Valuation is a crucial determinant of long-term returns. The higher the price an investor pays for those cash flows today, the lower the long-term rate of return earned on the investment..

The corollary is also true. The lower the long-term rate of return demanded by investors, the higher the price moves today. So clearly, changes in investors' attitudes toward risk will strongly affect short-term returns. If investors become more willing to take market risk, it is equivalent to saying that they are demanding a smaller risk premium on stocks (that is, a lower long-term rate of return). Prices rise as a result. Now, the fact that current stock prices are higher also implies that future long-term returns will be lower, but that's part of the deal. Link

Thanks for posting that table Uninterested. It's clearly a tortoise and hare race... I wonder if Mary Holm has seen it? She should...

And for those who may have missed it - an interesting thread re one of the Covid-19 Auckland clusters https://twitter.com/kirsty_johnston/status/1248470614446243840

China cough (but hiding it), US sneezes, then the rest will be in history for the world. Who swim naked next? - worldwide neo-liberal musical chairs of passing on debt between countries suddenly stop, cartel phantom capital movement suddenly also stop due to severe restriction of people movement, Yip we're in good position to sell sky high price for our fresh produce, but alas countries need to draw $ from the bank (albeit from phantom loan/printing money borrowing), .. wait did you mention OZ cash run?...dung.. dung.. dung.. - how's here in NZ rock star economy? - ..wait, renters,landlords,banks,rbnz,county are all shall be united - by Sir blue superhero.. coming to save us.. once again.

How about NZ food prices they must be up similar to China rise this month.
USD looking weak now versus AUD it was 55 cents mid March now nearly 64.
NZD now giving back to AUD only few weeks ago it was near parity.
Maybe markets are picking Australia to be the winner versus NZ as they are not trying to eradicate it at all cost but rather manage it and also save economy.
In a few months I am picking Qantas will be restarting slowly while we will be stuck virus free but in big debt and wondering what we can do to make some dollars.
I worry that everyone is saying add value to milk etc but if it was that easy why has it not been done.
My pick is we need to get all costs down including housing/rates/fuel/industrial rents to give as a chance to make some products that are affordable for us and to export.

With Phil Goff in charge in Ak, rates will never ever come down.

I know I was just dreaming what could be.
Maybe we need someone like Rob Fyfe/Rod Duke to come in and look at it as a real business and start cutting jobs in a nice but real world way.
I know it is brutal but I noticed my local council was very well staffed and paid everyone well above market rates.
Also the amount of jobs added in my council has been huge I am surrounded by people who work for them and it gives me an insight into how poor the council is with our rates.
They hire people for social media to gloss things up.
They have a contractor that comes around almost weekly and roundups sprays the local play ground etc when it is not needed.
They run events that cost money and sometimes have purchased these at great costs from private events companies (bail out).
If a council in NZ could run themselves very well maybe they could attract people/jobs into their town (wishful thinking).

Totally agree Becnz ..... I think you are describing the QLDC?

QLDC are incompetent fools. All about the money gathering and NOT about their main jobs.
Case on point: rabbits.

Yes a few years back QLDC and also CCC and Waimakariri District but they did not buy any events but are build a 20 million dollars plus recreation centre that the will be empty for most of the time on the edge of town.

I dont exactly agree with your take on councils who are largely staffed by good people. You say they shouldn't do weedspray until its needed. Trouble is that when its needed is too late and by then the public are noticing the park or roadside looks scruffy. Btw how much rates do you personally pay

I pay my rates in full 3.4k per year but my point is a playground with the smallest of weeds in a crack that someone spends 30mins every few weeks to hunt down to spray is a complete waste of my money.
These are not overgrown blackberries etc just a little dandelion in a crack???? overkill is an understatement.
Go to Europe and they let them grow as it is not good for the environment to spray so much and it even looks quite nice and kids are safe to play and they are not wasting dollars.

I regard Goff as a sad remnant of the failed - and arrogant - Douglas putch.

But I regard your comment as bigoted and lightweight.

Exponential growth on a finite planet, was always going to result in relatively increasing rates and relatively worsening infrastructure. Blame him for the blind belief years, but not for the rates problem

Maybe if immigration falls away and more people leave Auckland we might see rates flattening out.
I am a bit sympathetic to the councils on this. It has been central government policy that has resulted in our high rates of population growth and massive pressure on council infrastructure and services.

And the dopey 'four well-beings' recently re-inserted into the LG Act 2002 as TLA's primary purpose. That 'social and cultural wellbeing' bit is a deep, wide, unfillable ratepayer money pit. For your delectation, here's the legislation:

10 Purpose of local government
(1) The purpose of local government is—
(a) to enable democratic local decision-making and action by, and on behalf of, communities; and
(b) to promote the social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being of communities in the present and for the future.

10(1)(b) can cover every conceivable human activity, so that's why rates are headed for Buzz Lightyear territory unless ratepayers wake up and demand a return to the core: 3 waters, roads, bridges, minimal parks, minimal recreation, simple libraries and so on.

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Again a friend of mine who was looking for a house just before the lock-down got a call from RE Agent from Barfoot trying to convince him to put in an offer as the competation will be low and when query about house price - the house price expectation was same as was before - trying to create FOMO and at his stage someone will fall for them - trust them.

Buying a house, specially for FHB is good but now when know that the housing market going future will be soft ( even if it does not crash and may not be heavy fall like stock market) but still if can wait now as have got an opportunity for FHB with jobs/ business and cash - will definately get more for their deposit so why rush at this stage when everything is falling apart.

Be Aware of any RE Agents for now.

One does not have to be an expert or economisit as any person with common sense can see what is happening around them.

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There should be a law where if the price falls within a year the agent is liable for 50% of the drop. See how that changes their moral compass.

I find there is quite a big difference between dealing with a broker and dealing with a real estate agent. Both make money via the transaction. One will openly tell you about the risks and why you shouldn't buy something, the other tell you there are no risks and you must buy now. You can decide which is which.

Independent_observer .......This is a real joke. Thanks.

This is NZ .. FB, it's always been easy to declare bankruptcy, then restart again using different name/entity/person in charge etc. - ALWAYS!

"it's always been easy to declare bankruptcy, then restart again using different name/entity/"

Especially prevalent in some industries - e.g property developers- many learn their valuable lessons in the first cycle, then some go on in the next cycle.

The issue is that there are new generations of people becoming small time property developers in the next cycle. Then they go on to learn the same lessons firsthand of the previous generation of property developers. The economy needs willing entrepreneurs to create employment in each cycle ...

An example ..

Although today Clarke controls a multi-million dollar business, less than 10 years ago he was so broke he could barely afford 50c lunches.

In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) he was declared bankrupt after 12 of 27 companies he owned went into receivership, forcing Clarke to survive on the dole for the following two to three years.

Although Clarke lays the blame at the feet of his bank lender at the time, he says the experience was "one hell of an education.

"It was the most expensive MBA you could get," he says. "I estimate it cost me about $80m all up. I ended up on the benefit, could barely afford 50c lunches and had to watch my wife wash her hair with soap.

"I remember one day we were moving some junk around in the house we were renting and I found $500 in one of my old suits. Well, that had us dancing in the living room - and we went out and blew it on a bottle of wine and a meal out.

"It materially affected the way I see the world," he says. "I felt under extreme pressure, especially to provide for my family, and I had no pride in being on the benefit.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/du-val/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504459&objectid...

My brother too got a call for a house that he had seen earlier in Pakuranga with CV of 910000 and price expectation was 950000 plus and now agents were trying to sell ( knowing very well that once the lockdown is over - house price fall will be inevitable) and will succeed as you are correct that some may fall for it, not realizing that world has turned upside down in last month and should understand that if the agent/ vendor is taking conditional offer ( which they use to be allergic to) it is only because that they know that if not done now may not even get 900000 so are trying to bind some innocent FHB now and this is not Barfoot but rawhite.

I too support that all buyers specially FHB to be patience at this stage and keep away from Real Estate Agent as much as possible who all are trying to trap with conditional offer but you too can be smarter if have put in a conditional offer and can come out of it in future - do so to get more for your $$$$$$.

Maybe a good chance for someone to start a business for buyers agents and get price down and drive a bargain as the average person is not very good at it.

Have you not heard : Birds of a feather flocks together......be it Barfoot or Ray white or.........

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Scum bag agents will just want money and will tell you anything to get a sale but not all agents are scum bags maybe 90 percent.
Maybe record them telling you market is great etc and if not tell them you will see them in court to collect the difference in price in 6 months.
Maybe someone could do an covert op and record a few agents and if they are telling lies then they need to be fined etc as they seem to rhink thet are above the law.

The roof analogy applies to households not governments who are the issuers of the currency. What this episode is revealing is that the prior level of public debt in no way constrains the ability of the US government to spend. As long as the spending is replacing private spending that is stalled it will not be inflationary.

True for the US but for a different reason. As long as they keep the petrodollar going (and therefore being the worlds reserve currency) there will always be demand for the dollars they conjure up out of thin air. That’s why they start wars where they do. This is definitely not the same case for other countries.

I am so grateful to live in a country where both political parties understand the need to pay back debt during the good times. I just can’t understand how rich countries like the US can vote in someone who takes on massive debt unnecessarily. Why take that risk for a small amount of unnecessary sugar?
As much as kiwis like to whinge about our politicians, both sides of our political spectrum are very sensible. Even our extreme parties are probably more centre than other country’s centre parties!

Off course, nice to say when you're on different platforms.. but honestly, you might be interested with this piece of reading:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1507/S00101/the-fire-economy-new-zeala...
Ed. can we have a piece interview with her?

Nice point.
Cue 'We don't know how lucky we are'

For governments to run endless surpluses with a current account deficit and sustain spending, it requires the private domestic sector to increase its debt. So strong public bslance sheets result in fragile private ones. Also infrastructure is run done so that when the rainy day comes in the form of a monsoon we only have a shanty town to protect us....as Steve Keen said recently. Governments in our context should run deficits to allow households to accumulate savings. Governments cannot run out of money. Households can.

Some useful graphs for those wondering about mortality rates:

European Monitoring of Excess Mortality

Those that are claiming mortality is the same as it ever was are sort of right and sort of wrong. You can see in the graphs that winter brings more deaths like clockwork however this year's northern winter had a mild flu season. However we now see what looks like the flu season starting a month later with Covid-19. The conclusion is that mortality is in fact higher for this time of year.

It will be very interesting to follow these graphs over the next few months so I suggest you bookmark the link. We should be able to watch what happens with Sweden compared with other countries.

I actually like Sweden's approach which is basically, yes there is a dangerous virus, but everyone must act responsibly. A well ordered society of intelligent folk could handle this event without coercion and without too much economic damage....in theory. Let's see if Sweden can prove it.

Was interested in this one as it helps understand why it's been so devastating to the health system.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/?fbclid=IwAR0GFp_wG...

Number of deaths for influenza is average over 365 days ie 153 x 365 for annual total. Whereas they mostly occur during winter. Which also leads me to think how many of the normal influenza deaths have been incorrectly classified as death from covid

You know that March is not winter in the northern hemisphere right? Flu season peaked in Feb and the virus didn't take off in Europe and America till after then. But also, credit clinicians with a touch of nous will you? They know what flu looks like. Are you are actually suggesting highly trained and experienced ICU staff in all the multiple countries infected, don't know what flu looks like? Why did China even bother reporting a new novel virus December 31st if it just looked like flu? *HEADDESKHEADDESKHEADDESK*

Most people seem to fit into one of two camps about COVID: either that it is the end of the world or that it is nothing. I think it is somewhere between those two extremes: it’s something to take seriously but not really the death threat the media and governments are making out. Personally I think the best response (and probably the eventual response unless a vaccine is created) is to isolate older and vulnerable people. The death rate in under 60’s is very low. The economic consequences of isolating pensioners would be fairly low. Seems like the best trade off (although very boring for those isolated). Maybe it should be optional.

We've had that comment before, and the flaw is obvious. I'm 65, my partner is 57. What you gonna do, separate us after 40 years? I don't think so.

It's a good lesson though - to think through the implications of things which might appear good in that first instinctive rush.

In that case you could either both isolate or both not isolate. I wouldn’t be opposed to giving the pension early to partners in that position. The real problem would be aged care workers. I think they would need to isolate too but again I am not opposed to the government giving a big payout to those people in compensation.

It would be voluntary. It doesn't have to be across the board rigid isolation just a large percentage doing it. Also taking much more care, limiting large gatherings, wearing face masks and frequent and effective hand washing. If we all did that we could manage this.

The most difficult would be households that have old people living with young people. The now classic Western style of old folk living in their own houses rather than inter-generational living would be better during this crisis.

I don't think isolation is required. Just some common sense and basic hygiene.

Maybe the only legislation that would be needed, would be to increase sick leave, or companies to provide more working from home options. So that if you are sick (For whatever reason) you can stay at home.

Why seperate you? You can go into isolation together.

I think the same as you. I would rate it as about four times as dangerous as influenza. It appears to be more contagious. However we should fight it on various fronts. Yes more isolation for older and vulnerable folk. More awareness from all sectors of society. Actively manage the threat. The initial lockdown is good but after that we have to manage it.

Looking at the per country graphs it is far more obvious in the countries with serious outbreaks.

https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html

Too many of the elderly and the vulnerable because of health conditions are teachers. Some are doctors and nurses. Not saying it is impossible but it would not be easy. Although the under 65's with no health conditions do usually survive Covid-19 it can leave them in hospital for extended periods.

870 deaths in Sweden so far... number of cases climbing. Swedish government considering locking down.
“Internationally, New Zealand has a high prevalence of asthma, with one in seven children (13 percent) aged 2–14 years (110,000 children) and one in eight adults (12 percent, 452,000 adults) reporting taking current asthma medication.”
So adults aside, with a ridiculous open for business policy, you could be exposing 13% of children who already have breathing issues, to this deadly virus....

Hiding behind the children General?

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Crass comment Smith... but no I don’t. I stand in front of them to protect them from people who will exploit them for their own personal gain and lust for more... people like you.

Sorry Sir, was a bit harsh. Yet Intelligence reports:

No one under the age of 20 has died in Sweden:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths...

its very much an age related illness, barring other health conditions. This isn't news to anybody.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105431/covid-case-fatality-rates-us...

Obviously news to the General who has expressed concerns about young people in previous comments. Generals, always fighting yesterdays wars. This isn't another polio epidemic General.

The world is also full of young people with asthma and diabetes etc. Seems almost everybody has some condition or another these days. the young can't ignore it, and aren't immune.

They're largely immune to the fatal consequences of the virus. There are a lot worse things for them to die from out there and they shouldn't lose any sleep worrying about catching it themselves except for passing it on to others. The statistics are quite plain. More are likely to die from the consequences of global depression, especially in less developed nations but also developed ones, than would die from the virus. I am quite sure about that.

Well crack on there, Trooper Smith. Doesn’t matter then if the kids get sick and take up valuable hospital beds. Just as long as they don’t die. After all, what doesn’t kill makes you stronger, aye?
As for those over twenties, they are all expendable.... give ‘me hell soldier!

For those under 20 only about 2 in a 1000 of those showing symptoms will require hospital care and only 1 in 10,000 of the symptomatic will require critical care.

Always easy when someone else is dying to make you rich. You are a despicable human.

I think Boomers and the Silent generation are being despicable. They want to totally ruin the economy and put the younger generations into debt forever because they cannot be bothered self isolating and taking extra precautions. That's all that is required. They've had it good, mostly have mortgage free houses, many are retired on superannuation. Now they want everyone to hide under their beds so they will be safe. They haven't been called to make any sacrifices at any stage of their pampered care free lives. When the call finally came they wanted everyone else to sacrifice everything. They don't seem to care at all about the misery that will be inflicted on the younger generations. Makes me sick.

You are them!

Yeah, I was just looking at Sweden. A few days ago they were sitting at around 50 deaths/day. Now it's up to 100/day. They absolutely need to go into lockdown ASAP.

The deaths appear to be leveling off. Sweden can activate new rules when it sees fit but for now it is holding the course. It's an important and brave strategy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden scroll down to "Daily new deaths in sweden" graph.

Looks like a trend that is growing, not levelling off to me. A couple of low days (which happen to be the weekend, so probably a data reporting issue) , then straight back into a full-throttle climb.

Your link shows yesterday Sweden had 544 new cases and 77 deaths. Quite a significant drop from the day before which was 722/106.

Also a public holiday, so quite likely a reporting issue, like the two quiet days on the graph.

And talk about cherry picking, take a multi day average and follow the trend.

Sorry that you totally lost that one.

*chuckle* check back in a week see where the trend had gone.

Are the deaths leveling off or are the pathologists at capacity?

Apparently plenty of capacity. The country's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said about Sweden's response, "It's producing quality results the same way it's always done. So far Swedish health care is handling this pandemic in a fantastic way."

That statement is in relation to general health care. Pathologists on the other hand will be the ones determining cause of death. If they're at capacity then the growth rate in Covid Deaths may appear to be levelling out but a backlog will be growing.

Sweden turning into a shit show.Cfr now 8.98.
There is recent research saying the R0 rate is tracking at around 5.7,meaning 82% immunity required to reach herd immunity level.

Brave? How the hell is killing hundreds of citizens per week brave?

Suicidal moves are often called brave.. but usually only when the decision is made by those that are the sacrifice.

The Swedes are effectively providing a scientific control for our own experiment. We need the control to be a similar society and economy.

Lockdowns might save lives in the short-term, but risk a second wave of deaths, and years of ill-health from unemployment and deprivation.

We really wont know until a number of years down the track.

”We really wont know until a number of years down the track.”
And yet, you are willing to sacrifice people to keep your greed going... in the hope you are right “in a number of years down the track.”

Too soon to say they're levelling off. Within a larger trend there will always be local peaks and valleys. Maybe April 7 was the peak but using the same logic one might have thought April 2 was the peak too. Certainly an interesting one to watch. A useful experiment for sure, but one I'm glad we're not running.

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Deaths per million population:

Sweden = 86
New Zealand = 0.4
Australia = 2

Tests per million population:

Sweden = 5,416
New Zealand = 11,548
Australia = 13,269

And if you are not testing widely for COVID, you're not tracing either and your death rate will likely be under-counted.

Deaths per million population:

New Zealand = 0.8

Tests per million population:

New Zealand = 12,182

Deaths lags onset of disease and the test that proves it. Maybe it should be matched with new cases and testing volumes from about 3 weeks earlier.

You're right, I checked the data before they added today's data from NZ;

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?

The US Fed has vastly expanded its backstop lending to companies that are now in dire straits, chiming in with a new US$2.3 tln program on top of the trillions previously announced..

Another day, another new Federal Reserve “bailout.” As these things go by, quickly, the details become less important. What is the central bank doing today? Does it really matter?

For me, twice was enough. All the way back in 2010 I had expected other people to react as I did to QE2. If you have to do it twice, it doesn’t work. And if Ben Bernanke grew so concerned he felt a second dose was required…

Put another way, if a central bank keeps doing “bigger” things, that isn’t a basis for optimism because it calls for a starkly sobering re-assessment of a situation that just so happens to be causing central bankers to panic. Monetary policies since August 2007 aren’t a fix, but a warning. The more they have to do, the worse it is likely going to be. Link

It's got to the stage where I'm passed screaming at the screen "Can't you see what you're doing!!!" and just stare at a post like that and silently move on.
ANYONE should be able to read that link and understand what's happened and IS going to happen. Even Adrian Orr. But no.
So I'll move on. Perhaps that's the objective? We all just move on, and pretend it's all going to be ok.
Thanks again for the link.

To do the same thing over and over until you see different results?

When banks start becoming oil companies, then you really have to worry: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-energy-assets-exclusive/exc...

Great link.

For a decade, hereabouts, I've been pointing out that energy underwrites money, and that the energy remaining was of ever-lessening quality. It seems the banks were as blind as the economists in NZ, in this respect. And the NZ media - with the exception of Kim Hill's wee energy pieces a few years back.

Society is an energy equation, and globally it can no longer afford itself. Which is why it should come as no surprise that were are where we are, now. I suggested recently that Trump will have to step in to rescue fracking - maybe it will be via banks....

Whereas during the Great Depression, the US Government seized/nationalized all gold as a means to deal with the crisis, this time around they should repeat the exercise on all energy assets (before the private sector banks do).

We now know the cost of freedom of movement (as practised), 20mbpd.

Who has the best COVID-19 policy. Oz or NZ? You decide...

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=NZD&view=1W

Australia.
To our fortune Australia was keeping NZ aligned to closing down borders. Including us like one of their states.
To yesterday Australia had less cases per million of population than nz.
239, v 257.

Australia may prove to be our biggest export market, the one that has headroom to increase the most, as we fight our way out of the economic mire.

The PM needs be less shitty toward SoMo, more diplomatic, Shaw & Co need appologise over bush fire narrative, remember smelling the breath of climate change.... (no one remembered the Lange link to nuclear) and any way anti nuclear has proved a loser strategy now with gen4.
An apology for saying cc was the one thing that would kill us all. Taking all the attention and planning mind space and money away from other potential threats - such as.... a pandemic.

Any country would swap New Zealand's 'deaths per capita' stats for theirs, any day - Australia included. That will change - for us all.

Here is a date for your stay at home schedule:
Register now.

https://covidcon.org/

What is COVIDCon?
COVIDCon is a virtual Oslo Freedom Forum event presented by the Human Rights Foundation.

This two-day event, open to global audiences, will feature presentations and panels about the current pandemic and its relationship to state censorship, disinformation, surveillance, and civil liberties. COVIDCon sessions will showcase the difference in the responses of authoritarian regimes and democratic governments to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

Looks interesting. Will certainly watch.

Some talk of stopping share buy backs in the US. If that happens the US Stocks will enter free fall back to a fundamentals basis. Some funds and banks wont survive that. A bank here, a fund there, and pop goes the everything bubble.

FHB now is the time for patience. Once a bank or 3 tank overseas, interbank lending will get tight. Somewhere a bank will move first to protect itself and then it's margin call time, everywhere. With the govt here propping up the banks with interest only, wait untill 2021.

Have a look closely, this continuous map update: Note, most that darker colour countries economic are all subject to spectacular growth of RE/GDP numbers, courtesy of opening funds channel into their FIRE economy from CCP elites of 350millions populations... (which actually in the background being supported by their 1.3billions peasant workers) - remember 'capital out/investment' won't happen without it's 'people movement' - off course you can put to that: 'Educations, Tourism, Hospitality exports'.. but in the end?.. the eyes is for RE, without RE? you can't execute your 'magic weapon', you need permanent agent base to do that.
https://google.com/covid19-map/?hl=en

Personal observation:

At this stage of our credit card cycle our expenditure is 15% of what the average has been.

Sure, there was the 'buy up' before lockdown, but if this pattern is reflected across New Zealand, the coming retail sales figures are going to look...well, poor.
A real problem arises for our retailers; of all kinds, if this pattern becomes ingrained behavior. My view? It already has.

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Airlines, Travel and Hospitality industry along with Retail and International Student business/ sectors will be in hibernation for a long time to come and many may not be able to surivive and die.

Real effect will start to trickle once the lockdown is over and should be prepared for bloodbath and hope for the best.

My big expense for the year was a planned holiday to Europe - maybe we would have spent $20k. Now it might be going to new plumbing and garden fences and sealing the ROW - and a couple of cheap holidays in NZ. We will put a little away for a rainy day but the main effect out of lockdown will be like pulling the cork from the sparkling wine. Those small businesses that cater for locals not tourists could do great. If they survive the lockdown.

'The end of the lockdown could be just the beginning of troubles for both residential and commercial landlords, Greg Ninness says

Agree with Greg that real problem for Residential and Commercial property will start when the lock-down is over as now fall in price that is inevitable is in freeze mode and have also given the likes of B&T and Raywhite machinery to try and sell under lock-down to those who had been to open house earlier before lockdown or as soon as lockdown is over as many who have not been adversly effected or not realizing may fall for their talks and buy only to realize later that this was not normal time and should have waited to get more for their money.

Many (even experts) are still not realizing that this is not normal recession and will only know what is left or can be salvaged after the carnage and it be on a scale unimaginable by everyone just like 2 months back no one could have thought that all borders will be shut and the entire population will be under lockdown with economy and social activities comming to a virtual halt with lot of unknown / questions.

Time to sit and wait before making any decession.

(1) Any potential buyer who is a cash buyer is likely to know what's happening. That's why they have cash!
(2) Any potential buyer who needs a bank to finance any aspect of any future purchase ie: needs a mortgage, is going to have the bank looking over their shoulder and saying "Yes or No" to any purchase. The banks KNOW what's happening; probably more than we do, just as any cash buyer should.

There will be a tiny number of buyer's "caught out" - there always is, but in general ? No.

Even if tiny number of people are hit badly - watch for Domino effect.

Those buying now are doing, knowing so responsible for their stupidity and lose of money/pain but will be many who bought last year between October to March during all time peak and of them some will be fine but many will be hit hard who have bought by streching and seeing lose in equity - hopefully do not go into negative terrain.

Well said Alittle and agree with you.

Anyone putting an offer now, knowing the situation = A fool and his money are soon parted.

As always, worst hit are those who enters at height of peak BUT still those who have bought within their budget for long term and can survive the virus will be fine but for many (As during peak most have to stretch beyond to buy) will be a nightmare.

Sports freaks, here is a view into the new sports media landscape.
Its must see stuff.

https://youtu.be/f2BZNowCXws
Brings back memories of Grand Slam tours

Henry_Tull

absolutely brilliantly funny video link

“Mortgage Forbearance” is Suddenly Hot, Hits Shadow Banks, which Clamor for Bailout from Taxpayers and the Fed

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/10/mortgage-forbearance-hits-shadow-banks...

Yes it certainly looks like a wealthy disease alright. Perhaps someone knew exactly what they were doing right back in the beginning.

Have a look at this.
https://youtu.be/zeF2rkyxDIo

With regards numbers, govt is stage managing.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/485425-west-china-covid-19-figures/

Regarding numbers. I am perhaps alone in thinking that the govt are fudging the figures. As a skeptic, I have tried to look up numbers from different angle. In other countries, some reporters simply chose to look at the registrar of deaths.
Dept of stats nz have a complete table for 2019, giving an average of 2855 deaths per month. The deaths for January, February and March 2020 are unavailable. I find it hard to believe that stats for January and February are not available, I know the national govt seriously rearranged the dept, yet surely they still have a computer or 2. So, I will wait with baited breath until such figures are available, as I think it will be the only way to get an insight into what's actually going on. No doubt I will find an increase in the number of sudden, and unexplained deaths, and a high incidence of death caused by influenza, yet just a few credited to covid 19.
Think about it. The numbers article I posted above is worth a read.

This property was bought for $530k in Sept 2018, 5 Dunlop Road, Te Puke. They have removed the old original house and split the section into 4 plots putting a small house on one plot and selling 3 small plots for $245k each. Good value?

https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential/sections-for-sale/auction...

Someone was looking for a 7% return property yesterday.
https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction...

The markets already started dropping. Imagine once LD ends.

After the Lockdown ....show will start......where will it stop has to be seen.

Might want to invest in a "P" test before buying. Decontamination can cost a bomb!

You could hardly say that the owner has put a lot of effort into getting the most for it!!

strange that at that price the tenant wont buy it

Agree/disagree? What happened the the PPE.
Answer below

https://nzmessengers.com/2020/04/11/setting-the-record-straight-no-to-xe...

Here's the latest look at things from a US perspective from Robert Shiller. Some great data driven insights (although not if you're black and/or not college educated):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/opinion/coronavirus-us-ec...

What herd immunity? A marathon seems an understatement...
Covid 19 coronavirus: 100 people in South Korea test positive for coronavirus after earlier being cleared
https://nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324210

there are reports coming out of cleared people recatching it and immunity only lasting a short period

WHO = China

https://youtu.be/3kLYAiv4TkA

All agencies and experts are biased with hidden vested agenda. Time to reset.

https://youtu.be/ROqZD3a0Ttg

Interesting.
Interesting because there has been nothing stopping the CCP take mainland china to be as Taiwan, or to be as Hong Kong.

What they have done is move the joint closer toward Nth Korea, rather than Taiwan or HK.
Pity FG
Pity the Uygurs,
Pity the Fentanyl end users.
Pity the HK students

Dr M shouldn't be doing these presentations.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/covid-19-media-update-1...

What's the big secret about the Auckland 35.
The private gathering.

The secrecy here smears the other information too.
Dr M struggled again today replying to questions about PPE.

Q: does any know more about the death at Pullman Hotel in Auckland last night?
Could be no. 5.

Penetrating the bureaucracy.....

PPE. NZ can be told, it's not like keep it a secret from the virus.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/union-claims-waikato-...
And
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120972690/dhbs-accused...

Testing.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120971046/coronavirus-...

But, Aged Care Association chief executive Simon Wallace said the testing regime for rest home residents and staff had been far from comprehensive.

Purchasing and procurement of basic supplies.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/120912415/coronavirus-how-tindall-morgan-...

"Some of us, Sam Morgan and I in particular, realised there was a lot of stuff not getting done. We basically took the bull by the horns along with the guys from Zuru, and used our own money and ordered up a whole heap of PPE gear. There's actually seven planeloads coming. Two have arrived already."

And, I will phone a friend thanks Eddie....
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120954236/inside-jacin...

When friends overseas painted a bleak picture of the advancing pall of coronavirus, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern listened.

"[They were] saying, 'Go, just shut down, because here I am in lockdown with thousands of people dying. Just shut down'," she tells Stuff's Coronavirus NZ podcast.

It helped make the decision to "go hard and go early", to close New Zealand's borders and enforce a lockdown.

It didn't have to be this way.

NZ public & current govt, would love to watch this - during the lock-down period:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGrBCtOt4Qs

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1507/S00101/the-fire-economy-new-zeala...