China left as our one only hope to restart our export economy if we step back from Level 4 lockdowns; NSW cuts Land Tax, UST 10yr yield at 0.73%; oil lower and gold unchanged; NZ$1 = 60.8 USc; TWI-5 = 67

China left as our one only hope to restart our export economy if we step back from Level 4 lockdowns; NSW cuts Land Tax, UST 10yr yield at 0.73%; oil lower and gold unchanged; NZ$1 = 60.8 USc; TWI-5 = 67
Karangahake Gorge, separating the Coromandel and Kaimai ranges

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we may be crushing our curve, but many countries that are key customers of our exports are a long way behind us.

As this is the Easter edition, we are going to look at what has been going on in some other countries, other than the US, China and Australia that are important customers of our exports - actually just our own goods exports because our service exports are dominated by tourism - and tourism is stuffed for the foreseeable future.

We all know our largest export market is China. They purchased $17 bln of our exports in the year to February or 28%. Australia purchased 15%, Europe 10% and the US 10%. That leaves 38% of all our exports purchased by all other countries. So how are the main ones in this second tier faring?

Japan is our next-largest customer (5.9% of our exports). Although they have a far larger population, Japan has about the same number of Covid-19 cases as Australia and only marginally more deaths. Japan's disadvantage is the age of its population and its population density. Japan thought it was on top of its outbreak but although minor, overall infection rates have started rising again. Physical distancing will be particularly difficult and with an impending tightening of their lockdown, it could mean they will only be allowed 2 hours outside - per week. Even though the Japanese are respectful of authority and socially compliant, that will be a very severe restriction if it comes. Hospitality will collapse and our food exports to Japan will be in big trouble. So far, only 13% of cases have recovered in Japan. A new potentially intense lockdown means Japan is unlikely to be an early customer of New Zealand exports.

And we should note that Japan has earmarked NZ$3.7 bln of its economic support package to help manufacturers shift production out of China, as the pandemic disrupts supply chains between the major trading partners.

South Korea (2.8%) was an early hot-spot and they flattened their curve in early March. But a chronic level of new infections has persisted since. Still, 70% of cases have now recovered and to ease the economic dislocation, their Government has given each household NZ$1300 - except to households in the top 30% on all incomes. Being early and effective means South Korea is a good candidate as a market open for New Zealand exports.

And we should note that Korea is moving to reduce its dependence on Japan in its supply chains.

Hong Kong (2%) has done a very good job of limiting its health exposure to the virus that originated in its parent. It has only 1004 cases and four deaths so far and it benefits from a regionally superior health system. And even though its people are independently-minded, they innately understand the benefits of isolation and the perils of easing too early. But it is a city that was already reeling from protests resulting from the assault by China on its freedoms, so it started with an economy already in recession - and a severe recession at that. Covid-19 on top of that means that demand in Hong Kong is very weak at present, not an attractive market for our products. In fact, in February, retail sales were down a massive -44% year-on-year.

Singapore (2%) is suffering the same fate. Sharp falls in retail sales, and its economy shrinking means Singapore is an unlikely place to find sales, let alone increased exports.

Taiwan (2%) is one country that has managed its virus emergency well. With only 388 cases and six deaths in a population similar to Australia's, it is a go-to place for public health standards. And it is expecting 2020 economic growth to be +2.4%, but retail sales will be hit hard as the population continues to self-isolate. Still, their shift to online sales will limit the downside there.

The bottom line for these second tier countries is that we will be very little help in export demand from any of these that will be meaningful for us. China may have been identified as a core concentration risk, and perhaps it still is, but demand from them is the only thing that could possibly save our 2020 economy.

In Australia, the NSW government has conditionally cut their land tax by 25%. Landlords of both commercial and residential properties will gain AU$440 million worth of tax relief - provided they assist tenants to at least the same level.

Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 1,827,000 and up +154,000 this time on Saturday which is a slower rising tide. Now, just under 30% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +55,000 since Saturday to 542,000. This is a slower rate of increase. The level of US cases that have recovered is 7.5% up to 23%. The UK now has more cases than China and three times the death level, in fact a death rate of 12.5%. Australia has now over 6300 cases, 4500 active, and while the rise in infection is slowing, deaths are not and now exceed 60.

Global deaths now exceed 113,000. Three mutations of the virus are now spreading.

There are now 1330 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +18 new cases on Sunday and lower than the +29 increase on Saturday. That is the lowest daily increase since March 22, three weeks ago. The number of clusters is up one to 13. Four people have died here, all geriatric patients, while another five are in ICU. One of those is in a critical condition. 35% of all New Zealand cases have now recovered.

The UST 10yr yield is holding at just on 0.73%. Their 2-10 curve is unchanged today at +49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is less positive at +16 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is flatter at +54 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.99% and up +23 bps in a week. The China Govt 10yr is at 2.54% and a fall of -7 bps in a week. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -4 bps in a week at 0.98%.

Gold isn't really trading and is still at US$1,686/oz.

US oil prices are a little softer at just under US$23/bbl. The Brent benchmark has stayed low at just under US$31.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar will open the week at 60.8 USc. On the cross rates we will be at 95.7 AUc and against the euro at 55.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 will start at 67 and its highest in a month.

Bitcoin is now at US$7,115 and a +3.5% rise from where we left it on Saturday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

222 Comments

13
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China left as our one only hope to restart our export economy if we step back from Level 4 lockdowns..

No chance if Five Eyes' spooks get their way - UK spy agencies urge China rethink once Covid-19 crisis is over

2 articles written by top military researchers & published in US navy magazine, urged the US gov to pay pirates to attack Chinese ships & prevent China from doing trade, to destroy #China's economy. Still think China is overreacting in the South China Sea? Link

We need to be very careful about lifting restrictions too early, otherwise we'll be spinning out of control like the US is right now. If you haven't seen this info graphic form the BBC and Johns Hopkins University the data show the rapid spread of COVID-19 since January 2020. You really should take a look.

Times Standard article: https://www.times-standard.com/2020/04/10/bbc-johns-hopkins-university-t...

More info from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

14
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Why are we not at level 3? We are doing the economic equivalent of shutting down the road system to eliminate road deaths. Many people are able to work in isolation - why are they not allowed to do so?

'Level 3 Restrict -
Heightened risk that disease is not contained.
Risk assessment
Community transmission occurring OR
Multiple clusters break out.'

Perhaps we are shutting down the road system ....to repair the roads?
Keeping traffic off them; Level 4, allows a better repair job to be done.
Our economic roads are knackered and badly need repair. Let's take the time, and the opportunity, to do it properly. "Experience is a great teacher" and all that.

11
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If we're anything like Queenstown Airport the opposite will happen. They have the perfect chance to repair the runway properly instead they are patching it.

Edit to add: the reason for the patch is the CEO cut corners to save money not long ago, he was worried about getting a bigger bonus.
You can't make this shet up.

And that's the risk - we do an economic patch-up job instead of overhauling the whole system.
We have to do it properly; we have just one shot at this, and if I have one fears it's your 'Queenstown runway' analogy.
Our politicians; any politicians, aren't designed and haven't been trained to do the job that just landed on them
Their job is - to get re-elected. Nothing more, nothing less.
They now have to completely redesign our financial and social systems.
Let's hope they can multitask.
I reckon they can!

If you want a redesign of the financial system then at least we have the right government in power to do it properly.

27
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It's already there.
National, under John Key, showed it's expedient colours. I voted for Key, based on his understanding of 'what needed to be done' He told us all so before the election. "You don't get out of debt by borrowing more money" being one of his catch cries.
And what happened when he got in? He'd done his job; got elected and went back to what was basically in place before hand.
National ARE NOT a viable choice for sorting this situation out. Have a read of Steven Joyce's recent missives. They'll make you cringe!
Labour may be, only by dint of the fact they never expected to get in,in the first place, and have no legacy issues as a result.
Labour aren't Socialist Labour in this country , they are a faction of Government that swaps colours from time to time.
IF we have any shot at change, it's with the current Government.
As I said. I hope they pull it off, for otherwise it will be "business as usual' and that will be a disaster beyond just replacing Ardern with Bridges.

16
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Lanthanide if the current government, with all their resources, can't build a house sucessfully you really think they can redesign a financial system?

16
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If you're hung up on Kiwibuild, then I have no answer for you.
Kiwibuild was an aspiration; a goal, and it wasn't achieved. Why? Because they tried to do it within the existing framework, so as not to frighten current property owners.
Well, guess what? Those same property owners ARE now freighted, and for good reason - financial hardship awaits many if not most of them.
Kiwibuild could be part of the solution; the rules can be changed to suit the current environment. But is that needed now? Migration is dead; so too tourism. Kiwibuild the least of our worries.
Labour has a shot at massive reform - Keating like stuff from Australia; perhaps Lange type stuff from here. Those initiative suited the times and worked until they needed reform - that never came - politics as usual took back over. Vested interests had their sway Politics, in other words.
We have a situation before us that none of us has either seen or expected. What Labour and Ardern do from here will shape not only this, but many generations of New Zealanders into the future.

I think I’d rather take my chances with Covid-19 and Anarchy. Are electric fences and baseball bats on the essentials list?

Not sure about that when you're living in a nice house that's also close to GI...?

There’s no Macca’s or KFC in Kohi. They won’t come this way.

Oh boy, if there's ever been a "careful what you wish for" comment on this site, that was it.

Keating and Lange were both very sharp minds, and had more sharp minds in their governments.
The mobs leading both countries these days have a massive talent and IQ deficit...

I wonder if anyone here read The undeveloping nation : New Zealand's twenty-year fall towards the Third World (1992). Which talked about all the deferred maintenance of the nation and its long term cost. $1 not spent here being $20 in the future etc.

Sounds interesting. Just looked it up on the university library system but they don't have an online version, only a physical one.
I'll put it on the list to get once things open up again.

23
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While getting mushrooms from the golf course(unmowed) next to Queenstown airport yesterday, I noticed vehicles zooming up and down the runway doing something that looked quite interesting. Frankly, if we never go back to 60 flights a week from Aussie, I won't care. And if we get rid of all the foreign temporary visa workers, who only benefit a few of the usual suspects, I won't care either. If we go back to a bit of trade in summer, an off season, then a bit over the ski season, then another off season , I won't care. However with Jim in charge, all efforts will be made to bring back mass, lowest possible common denominator, tourism.

14
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Ah, magic mushrooms, that would lighten up the lockdown

Is Porter up to his usual tricks? Saw an article filled with his usual self promotion the other day. The 'convention centre' and gondola dusted off... and ready

They start repair work on the runway tomorrow, and I hope you killed a rabbit or two while at the golf course.

11
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There will be no repairs or capital expenditure of any great consequence. The vast bulk of the $40-50b (I’ve lost track, who knows) will be sent on subsidies, welfare and other “operational” expenditures...so basically gone with no economic return whatsoever and another $50k of govt debt added to the average Kiwi family. However, have no fear as the RBNZ will simply print up endless amounts of money to cover all the govt spending required. Don’t worry, somehow we will make that debt disappear, so it’s no big deal. Alice in Wonderland here we come...

There is a time and a place for government to be stingy, middle of a pandemic is not it.

16
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We just need to hang in there for another week or so. The government should make noises about dropping level 4 though. Also the old and vulnerable should still isolate and take precautions like wearing face masks when we come out of level 4.

That's literally part of level 3 - those over 70 to self-isolate.

Is it Lanthanide? I don't see it there:

https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/covid-19-alert-system/#level-3-rest...

If it is there it's worth reiterating for the oldies here. I believe some want the level 4 to continue forever because they cant be bothered doing that.

Over 70s self-isolating is actually a Level 2 element, so implied also in Level 3!

Thanks for the link to level-3 restrictions. They need tweaking: re-open libraries and cautiously restart elective surgery.

What is the chance of developing better prevention devices for the vulnerable over time as part of a post lockdown solution? Something that covers the face in a clear sealed mask with an effective filter. Most of the masks being warn are only good for containing a little of your own cough and near pointless as a preventative. Cover the eyes, nose and mouth. I rode a motorcycle two hours a day commuting for years, it took time to get use to but I did. I'm not seeing a load of effort in things like this but hopefully they are being considered and worked on.

Yeah it's very likely there will be at some form of reasonably effective tech solution like this in the next few months, one of many possibilities the lockdown is buying time for, at which point all the people falling over themselves to throw the oldies and healthcare workers under the bus for a buck are going to look even stupider than they already do.

11
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Because we have the chance of totally eliminating this so we will not have to worry about it after the lockdown. That us a better outcome than worrying about social distancing for the next year.
If Labour stopped this at present they may as well pack their bags and not worry about the election.

I really dont think we will eliminate it, unless you test the whole population. From what I have read, many could be suffering with very mild to no symptoms, they arent on the radar. The whole thing needs a big rethink.

If they can't eleminate Jacinda is gone. She should have acted sooner but kept to her 'I'm still going to be hugging people'. Add that to Labours ability to handle the economy and she is long gone no matter how bad National is at present.

16
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Because going too early is likely to undo all the good work done so far. The health/economic equivalent of opening up the road bridge before the last span is in place.

The direction of travel is good at the moment. The messaging is clear and people understand what's needed. The aim is elimination which will be the best health/economic outcome for NZ. It may not be a popular sentiment but I trust the experts.

Elimination is not the best economic outcome. And likely not the best health outcome. We have to quickly learn how to live with it. Just like other countries learn to live with dengue fever for example. " I do believe this is going to be something that is rite of passage for most people. Because like I said, this is a virus that has the transmissive ability of common cold causing coronaviruses, so this is something that eventually is going to be unavoidable."
https://www.magic.co.nz/home/news/2020/04/infectious-disease-and-pandemi...

"And likely not the best health outcome" - to those living and breathing today in NZ - we strongly disagree.

Lucky you are not waiting for cancer treatment/testing or on the economic edge frazz.
All of the people who are usually treated at these hospitals will not have had all of their their health issues disappear.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/49-hospitals-furloughing-w...

11
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Profile.
No matter how much you try and push your adgender, fewer than 5% are going to agree.
The lock down is happening and will continue to happen despite whatever you think and the cost to you.
Hopefully we can stop talking about this now because it has been talked to death on here for over a month. We're over hearing about how bad it is, it is bad for everyone.

14
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Rubbish (I personally know someone with cancer). Treatment has carried on but with safe systems added. Your link is to the US - were your mate Orange Face ignored all the facts and only relented when the pandemic was steering him the in face. Luckily our current government listens and respects science and professionals - not TV jocks and keyboard warriors with nothing else to do.

Not rubbish. I know people not geting cancer testing. Fingers crossed for them. Where is the suicude data published?
Thanks for the Trump virtue signalling. Trump to compared to who? He acted far faster than Jacinda, setted up a C19 task force in January. Jacinda likely didn't impose a travel ban early enough due to her TDS. Pelosi was trying to extend the impeachment during a pandemic and encouraging people to attend SF Lunar NY celebrations to show they weren't racist. Biden calling Trump racist for imposing travel bans. The NY Health commissioner tweeting - "As we gear up to celebrate the #LunarNewYear in NYC, I want to assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or certain parts of the city because of #coronavirus,”

Eliminations is the best way forward.
Profile.
There are people who will go broke no matter what and if you are worried about it now it is most likely to late for you.

My Sister has just started another round of chemo. All this happened for her under lock down.

Best wishes to you and family - we hope it goes well for her.

Yeah you're right, people with cancer would be way better off if the hospitals were overloaded to 7x capacity with COVID patients.

One possibility you've overlooking - and fair enough since the MSM hasn't really aired this at all - is for delibetate low dosing of the virus.

Everyone's pinning their hopes on a vaccine, but that may not pan out in a reasonable period of time for many reasons. So what is the alternative? If we are sure everyone is going to get it eventually and it's going to become a standard circulating disease? That's probably ok for the bulk of the population, but not those over 70 or with other health concerns.

Back before there was a vaccine for smallpox, one technique used was to deliberately infect children with a very small dose. I've seen it said that only 1% is these cases went on to develop a bad case of the illnesses and for the rest it was mild. They then had substantial resistance or immunity to it thereafter.

So if vaccines don't plan out, one way to bring about a level of herd immunity would be to deliberately spread weak versions of the virus. Since we'd know exactly who had it, those people can be isolated and cared for and the roll out can proceed at a pace that the health system can cope with. Now maybe one of the reasons vaccines might fail is because they don't convey useful levels of immunity, but one of the reasons this virus spreads so rapidly is there is no pre-existing resistance to it. A weak and managed infection of the virus could be a realistic approach for those in at risk populations.

Sounds interesting.

10
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How long did it take before it was safe to attempt the low dose herd immunity response to Smallpox (prior to the vaccine)? How many centuries had it existed within populations before that was possible? They found Smallbox is Ancient Egyptian mummies 300BCE!!

This is a new novel virus. The virus is less than 5 months old so we don't have a clue how the mutation patterns will go within different populations with slightly different genetic profiles. As per the article linked to with the briefing, we are currently still in the phase of tracking mutations.

Do we know that it won't mutate to cause permanent damage to fetus within pregnancy like many viruses do? Do we know it won't mutate to higher mortality? The more people a virus infects, the higher the rates of mutation and the greater opportunity we give it to become more lethal and less predictable.

If we are lucky, it will mutate to be less harmful but it's unbelievably reckless, ignorant and shortsighted to play guessing games with a new virus. The recent Cambridge research showing that the C strain is more prevalent in Europe might come to explain why the death rate is higher there.

I'm not advocating the plan, but it would probably work. Isolate the population. Call for healthy volunteers aged between 18 and 40, give them a small infective dose which will hopefully give them immunity without causing any mortality. Those who develop antibodies form the work force.

It's not as good as trying to get rid of Covid, but probably better than some countries are managing.

A welcome breath of sanity, GN. Having just read Willis Eschenbach's tale of Malaria and its deviousness, I too would not urge mass innoculations just yet. Blood plasma transplants - just maybe. Antibody and antigen tests - yes, please, yesterday....

Staggering that this is still been talked over GN. Somehow logic just gets a back seat for their own short term gain in people's heads.
I get it that they are hurt and going down the drain but bloody hell we all knew there was an end of cycle headed our way and it was likely to be big. It happens everytime but still people make the same mistakes over and over again.

Hi gn,

As you are from the medical field, have you looked in-depth at some of the recent info like the below links show? I am curious to hear many different medical or scientific opinions as I am not a scientist myself. I have healthy distrust of governments of any ideological camp, in any country. However, I do believe that eventually the full truth will emerge, if only we dig and look hard enough...

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/who-investigating-nearly-100-recovered-...

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/explosive-report-wuhan-biolab-captured-...

http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-game-is-over...

I don't work in a medical field currently but I did, yes. I am *not* a specialist in virology or even respiratory issues but I remain a big science nerd (evolutionary genetics is a pet hobby). Both my sisters work in the NHS in different specialisms and along with ex-colleagues and friends, there is a lot of sharing of research and data at the moment. I cannot feel complacent about this virus with some of the first hand stories I am hearing. Several friends have had it or have it, they were all supposedly mild cases but even weeks after recovery they are experiencing loss of full function. One close friend in Australia had her entire cancer ward closed after deaths of several patients to the virus. Another friend who manages a residential facility in the UK is currently infected, she is losing patients every day, but they are not recorded in the official numbers as non-hospital deaths.

I tend to go to science based sources. For instance the study below highlights some issues about the mutations that have occurred within different ethnic populations. This publication asks whether the mutations explain the mortality variations;

"Some of them have a predicted binding moiety in a SARS-CoV-2 RdRp hydrophobic cleft, which is adjacent to the 14408 mutation we identified. Consequently, it is important to study and characterize SARS-CoV-2 RdRp mutation in order to assess possible drug-resistance viral phenotypes. It is also important to recognize whether the presence of some mutations might correlate with different SARS-CoV-2 mortality rates".

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-20304/v1

So Boris Johnson attempting this path and immediately scoring an own goal on himself and nearly dying is not a sufficiently cautionary tale for your liking?

Road deaths don't exponentiate.

Getting tired of saying it.

sorry David, I see you already linked to this, wonder if USA will do it even bigger?

I see now companies in the USA wanting the taxpayer to PAY them to bring production back from China. facepalm

Have no doubt that corporates will be working all angles to grab some taxpayer cash. Those politicians that accepted large corporate donations (eg Winston) are being "advised" by their friends how to handle the crisis.
I will say it again...we need to do away with political donations in favour of taxpayer funding.
It will cost us far far more than we realise if we don't.

Absolutely. Witness Trump's work to get rid of all transparency and accountability on how money can be handed out.

I'd suggest that if politicians here ultimately take working taxpayers' wealth to hand it to speculators and their mates, those politicians will find themselves in danger from an enraged population.

The current system doesn't go backwards, so this will only work if you break the FIRE sector first to restore purchasing power.

NZ's third largest export market is now being supplied by Australia. An industry that is fully mechanised from stump to ship, works under a two tree length rule and mostly communicates via radio.

No doubt flooding the market with all that burnt wood.

The charred look

they have huge radiata forests, I had friend in the business a few years back. Better to mechanise because of all the Snakes in summer. Also a lot planted on easy country for mechanical harvesting.

Do You have a link? Have family in the forestry game so am interested.

The major exporters here load out of Oz, US and NZ. Right now all out of Oz - and stocks here are run right down. Off take in China is good. So we will have to decide quite quickly if we want to reatain our third largest exporter. Safe to pick and pack an apple but not a log.

If I read Jeff Snider correctly then you would add in the US consumer as having a role in the expansion of the USD, and they have not been playing the game. So the FED's actions could be seen as taking up the slack. Who'd of thought not enough debt is the problem? A shortage of new debt to pay the old debt. It is both a demand problem and a supply problem at the same time.

Indeed, fractional reserve banking means that an initial Eurodollar can be multiplied up (e.g., Eurodollar 100m can be used as the base for a larger Eurodollar loan, and leverage increased further).
Not necessarily:

The problem in the wholesale model is defining what, exactly, is being “fractioned.” In traditional banking, someone deposits actual money and the bank “produces” several competing claims upon that money. They do so because they believe it is profitable and estimate not all claims will be presented for satisfaction at once.

The problem in bank panics, thus, was how claiming (convertibility) events were clustered. The panic in 2008, beginning in August 2007, was essentially no different in terms of generic, systemic processes. What is difficult for many to comprehend is what was being claimed – it surely was not cash, currency or anything about real money. In essence, what banks sought was balance sheet risk factors that could provide “capital” relief.

In the modern, wholesale framework, the true “money supply” is far deeper than currency or even ledger “cash.” Because of the VaR-style framework for balance sheet construction, tied back to capital ratios and regulatory ideas about them, the ability to control risk management calculations amounts, in perfect kind, to a form of money supply; you might even go so far, as I would, as to recognize it as the form of money supply. If you can hedge at a definable price, you can define how much of a particular security or asset class in which to be able to invest. Once invested, that leverage is defined exclusively by the math!

These links amplify the concepts:
https://alhambrapartners.com/2015/06/26/anecdotes-on-eurodollar-money-su...
https://alhambrapartners.com/2015/06/26/anecdotes-on-eurodollar-money-su...
https://alhambrapartners.com/2016/03/09/the-perils-of-citi-the-last-of-t...
https://alhambrapartners.com/2016/03/09/the-perils-of-citi-the-last-of-t...

16
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I have the option to live in many different countries, I'll take my chances with New Zealand if it's all the same. Everyone is screwed but if we can eliminate the virus we will be slightly less screwed.

Is elimination realistic? "Remember this is the seventh human coronavirus that we’ve discovered, and four of them are with us every year during every cold and flu season, and this looks to be the fifth. So I don’t think this is going to be eliminable from a population, but something that we are going to have to live with, and what we want to do is get through this first wave without having a disaster in our healthcare system.

...I do beleive this is going to be something that is rite of passage for most people. Because like I said, this is a virus that has the transmissive ability of common cold causing coronaviruses, so this is something that eventually is going to be unavoidable.

...And then I think it's gonna be up to individuals to decide what risk they want to have in their lives."
https://www.magic.co.nz/home/news/2020/04/infectious-disease-and-pandemi...

Retirement village restrictions will be staying in place for a very long time up to a year at least until there is certainty that the virus will not cause waves of old people deaths. Residents and their relatives will be pleased they are in a close-knit village environment with the extra care and protection. Demand for places will no doubt increase in my view.

the opposite is true, no-one wants to be locked in an enclosed space with a large number of people when a single violation of the bubble will undeniably result in mass infections and a significant number of early deaths especially when the entire population of the bubble is in the very highest risk group with actual personal isolation impractical due to the whole groups medical profile.
Resident numbers will fall as more are affected and as more potential future residents shy away just because of this higher risk, leaving no-one to buy out the Right To Occupy contracts and the village operators to keep paying all the outgoings (albeit the staffing costs will fall slightly).
This is a long term issue which may take 5 years to come back to a reasonable operating level and ceratainly crimp any shareholder return possibly to zero in the meantime with the added bonus of a falling share price

Health and safety procedures will come to the fore, it wont be in any village operator interest to have an outbreak. I think most people know that

To improve health & safety they should provide onsite accommodation for their care-givers.

Except most village operators continue to collect the 'body corporate'type expenses from the owners of the empty retirement unit, until the Licence to Occupy is sold to another party. In my family's case this took over 18 months and these costs were taken out of the final settlement amount, along with a$14K 'admin' fee. The whole system is a big rort and the village owner was not pleasant to deal with.

Generally people sell their house to get into these places. Think about that. Inflated house prices had a massive impact on our economy, now what?

From what I have heard, the people who were planning to sell have decided to wait for the dust to settle.. there will still be sales including my own house in two-ish months but listings will be down to compensate for buyer hesitation. I'm not nervous but rather looking forward to how it will do. March results (now out of date) showed hellishly strong buyer demand on a shortened month, perhaps that is an indication there will be some life left. Those who feel the need to sell will do so but yes you make a good point.

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Which is part of the reason for the mighty drop in retirement village operator share prices - anticipated drop in unit resale returns as these operators are forced to cut margins given new inmates have less cash because their house prices have crashed. The landlord faith based believers in an eternal life of ever increasing house prices believe investors have en masse lost their head. I know who I think is calling it right !

See my above comment about other approaches than vaccines.

Another thing you're overlooking here is treatments. There's not any real treatment for the common cold because it's generally so minor. Not so with COVID-19.

Even if we can't get a vaccine, it is likely we will have treatments available that can reduce the severe cases to moderate or mild and save lives. In such a case, letting the virus become endemic in the population would not be so bad.

The thing with the common cold is that people get it year after year - we haven't developed a natural immunity - and never will.

Profile.
We have seen your view that you want the lock down lifted above and ir has been explained that it will not be.

The LD has already been lifted a lot since it was first brought in. First it was a few big corporates given the green light for contactless sales. Then it was butchers and green grocers that already had an online platform... Sweet JA did her best to say that was always the case from day one. More revisions will come this week and this is only day 19. The progressive rollout had started before day 28 not from day 28

It is working, we will not going to level 3 until the due date comes and that may increase.
I doubt that local area LD will be lifted before total elimination.
You guys may not want it but it was always going to happen. The more people that try and sweep this under the carpet and try and justify the end the longer the LD will extend. Fill your boots, I've got plenty of time.

KezzaR. Suggest you are not giving enough weight in your considerations to public appetite for LD continuation in some form. Many people, like myself, are highly resistant to officialdom imposing restrictions our lives but have submitted in the common good to the health authorities recommendations with an important caveat - they from their position of scientific expertise believe elimination is achievable. If, despite all the sacrifices we make, isolation fails then getting buy in for an even reduced form of lockdown will be a hard sell. Presently we are looking past the infantilising pronouncements from government politicians, the Mike Bush style heavy handed threats and the severe damage being down to the economy but it had better pay off otherwise the credibility loss will demolish public support for centralised imposition of movement controls. The only next step available will be an advisory government approach with voluntary rather than imposed compliance.

Agree middleman. I definitely don’t want to be locked up much longer considering my chances of dying from COVID are almost 0. Isolate the people who are likely to die I say (most of which don’t work and get a weekly payment from the govt anyway).

Domestic violence is rising. Tensions in our household rising too. Cabin fever and all that.
We need to get out of phase 4 in a week and a half and manage this, rather than having almost everything in lockdown.

Ditto to the having plenty of time bit. Just cant get stuff fixed right now, like lawnmower, weedeater, truck reg cant be done because cof expired, dentist... etc. Tenant has been calling for minor repairs. Others will have other needs so I think it could get pretty busy when we can get out there.

We are budgeting for a boomer May and then after that an off the cliff freefall for our residential division.

Is that residential "construction" division. Do you think by June a lot of the fear will have dissipated if there is a whole month of good trading.

Yep, our division that suppliers the house building segment. And no, by June the post 'holiday' impact on personal balance sheets will be fully apparent and wallets shut. Robertson's wage subsidy is saving jobs just now but it's inevitable there will be heavy losses. We have our layoff schedule worked out depending on the rate of decline in our T/O. It makes sobering reading. It's right that Ardern allows the white coats to run the national lab test for now but she must take some personal brand risk by months end and end the experiment if it hasn't worked. If she delays decisive action she faces history quickly looking through tabloid Ardern imagery and conferring on her the Ruth Richardson austerity mantle.

Let's remember that if Jacinda had done as she said and that was to prepare and control arrivals we would be out of luck down by now. She screwed up and ot is in her head if it is not contained. The ones that will die if the hospital system gets over loaded will be her own voter base.
Logic says she will continue to it is under control or totally stopped.
The economy is taking a smash one way or the other.
The US is about to descend into food shortages and some crazy things going on.

One gets the feeling that by you advocating for an extension it sits your personal agenda. If you were going to make more money you would push that view

I couldn't give a toss either way. The economy will tank anyway. The way it will tank less is when we are Wuflu free.
From where I am sitting Houseworks and Profile are tanking and need to get their show back on the road before they go belly up. It will be too little too late if we are not virus free.

This is not boasting but Houseworks is far from tanking. Thankfully we have already sold a longterm hold property which left us with spare cash and other existing passive cashflow as well. The reason for my comment is that you are searching for quick profit and wealth creation. Yes we are looking for something as well but not at the expense of the SMEs that make up our community. The ultimate case of no covid is in my opinion unachievable.

It's not unachievable if people took it seriously and didn't flog it off as a common cold and the cure is worse than the virus.
There will be plenty of opportunities for all if the LD stops now or later.

"Thankfully we have already sold a longterm hold property "

Houseworks,

Just out of interest, given your recent comments about property prices, why did you sell your long term hold property?

You need to put yourself in Jacindas head. She mucked around at the start continuing to hug and 'prepare' away and then not to totally eliminate she is toast. This is not about what is good for anybody else at present it is about Jacinda holding on to power.
That 'I'm going to continue to hug' will bite her hard.

NZ has 5 deaths and is coming to the bottom of the new daily case curve. Not that I disagree things should have been done sooner, but politically she'll be measured against how other countries fare, not some imaginary scenario in which she single handedly stopped it altogether. No one got it right. She got it a lot more right than most.

It was clear that we were at the peak.

It was clear that we were going into a recession months back and if you didn't insulate yourself for that, you don't stand a chance anyway.

Common cold..??? Really...??? I think it is "up to individuals" to hold governments around the globe to account! Fill the streets when the emergency has subsided sufficiently to enable a protest broad enough that the world's various country's governments have never seen before either...

When I read details such as the horrifying state of human arrogance and greed (see article in below link), I get incredibly mad at how apathetic humanity has become... is it any surprise that we end up being take for a ride by politicians of every colour imaginable at every turn??

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/explosive-report-wuhan-biolab-captured-...

Profile and Houseworks leading the charge that the virus is nothing and we should all go back to work.
Nothing to see here. Yes stunning they haven't got the memo yet.

“Ahmedabad-based Zydus Cadila, which had $1.9 billion in revenues in fiscal 2019. We have ramped up our production of hydroxychloroquine from 3 metric tons per month to 20 to 30 metric tons per month and can scale it up further to 40 to 50 metric tons if there is a requirement.

Ipca Labs, which has 20-metric-ton capacity, can produce 100 million tablets a month. “The Indian government has placed a significant order,” says Ajit Kumar Jain, joint managing director of Ipca Labs. “We can increase our manufacturing capacity to 26 metric tons in a month or two.

...Meanwhile, the U.S. FDA has issued an “emergency use authorization” to treat adults and adolescents who cannot participate in a clinical trial. The WHO has also included the drug in an international clinical trial called the “solidarity” trial which is currently evaluating four different treatment options.

But an article in the medical journal published in the Lancet on April 1, warned that “virologists and infectious disease experts caution that the excitement is premature.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/anuraghunathan/2020/04/09/indias-drugmakers...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(20)30089-8/fulltext
https://abc13.com/amp/coronavirus-drug-covid-19-malaria-hydroxychloroqui...

Statistics NZ great regional figures https://www.stats.govt.nz/infographics/new-zealands-regional-economies-2019, provide a timely breakdown of each regions recent GDP growth ., and which 'industries' have contributed
https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/which-industries-contributed-to-your-reg....

It also states "This information could assist in exploring questions such as:
How susceptible is the regional economy to external factors or shocks (for example, commodity price changes)?"
When linked to recent regional house price growth , it is not difficult to appreciate which regions will see the most change in pricing.
RBNZ needs to cut the OCR initially by at least 1.5 bps ,it needs to rapidly lower the currency, to support what remains of New Zealand's export market, but importantly to lower borrowing costs , not to save the housing market or the over indebted ,but to maintain a semblance of confidence and to prevent a possible chaotic outcome when outcomes are so uncertain Flatten the curve, as it were.

Pity stats nz can't release the number of deaths for January, February and march 2020.

From NZ stats website for 12 months of 2019 the Deaths 34,260 which is less than net migration = 43,765. Divide by 12 for rough monthly totals. My interpretation is Covid-19 and its lockdown is deaths in NZ will be slightly reduced with fewer accidents and deaths by excess. Net migration is harder to judge - I'd expect as the world goes into severe recession for many Kiwis to return and some bring their foreign families with them.

Yeah, thanks Lapun. I saw 2019 figures last week, it's the 1st 3 months of this year that I can't find. The 2019 figures are interesting, an average of 2855 per month. With a steadily increasing rate over each month, which illustrates the shrinking population problem nz and indeed all western countries have.
I just find it hard to believe that figures for at least Jan and Feb aren't available. Nobody seems interested, other than a few.
I really have no faith in the numbers being fed in the media, the link shows how easy it is for each govt to choose an approach, and feed the numbers accordingly.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/485425-west-china-covid-19-figures/
Comparing monthly stats is the only way we can get to see if there is any spike. Not if, however, they've already thought of that, and are fiddling the numbers before being released. Data probably on a memory stick at the bottom of a box of scorched almonds!

Food shortages and the issues that it creates, on the way for the US. It is going to get ugly.
https://youtu.be/_J2NHjBkRmI

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I think we need to be very, very cautious about hitching our wagon up to an ever increasingly totalitarian society, that is prepared to infect the world with a virus rather than get onto it as soon as the information is there, resorting to locking up those who sounded the warning bells, instead, in case they make the authorities look bad.
I think I rather we didn't get too tangled up with this lot.

I'm confused...are you referring to the US or China...sound much the same.

The only difference is that The US inflicts death on other countries populations and China kills it's own population.
Other than that they are both very manipulative and focused at being number 1.

Well, the difference there is that China declares those other places part of China while killing people there. But it'd be ambitious in the extreme to pretend China is not the next imperial power on the block.

Yeah but I am guessing that the US with it manipulations, wars, restrictions and all it's other little dominance games arround the globe they kill a far greater amount. Killing is killing, no matter who you are killing.

Historically, yes, quite likely - across the globe so far. China is still the new imperial kid on the block there.

However, if we look back over the last couple of centuries since the USA has come into existence, China has killed an awful, awful lot of people through its own manipulations, wars and other little dominance games you're listing. Likely far more during that time. E.g.

Taiping Rebellion, 1851-64: 31 million
Panthay Rebellion, 1856-73: 1 million
Chinese civil war, 1927-49: 10 million
Laogai system, 1945-76: 20 million
Tibetan uprising, 1959: 85,000
Great Chinese Famine, 1958-62: 25 million

That doesn't include killing of Uighur people, and smaller pogroms and conflagrations such as Tienanmen or Hong Kong over the last year.

Take your pick, I'd rather have rid of all of these megalomaniac societies to be honest

I won't be buying from either of them if I can help it.

The issue there, though, about 'not buying from XYZ' is that in any even moderately complex product, it's quite impossible for the end consumer to ascertain just where each of the hundreds-to-thousands of components actually originated from. It's the old Bill-of-Materials (BOM) explosion problem. But stick to single-component stuff like bananas - no problemo.....

We can all just survive with less unnecessary crap, regardless of where it's made.
Spend more of our discretionary income on 'experiences' - things that benefit the local economy - dining out, domestic travel etc.

2021 - world start to reckoning to de-couple from China, good luck on that NZ ;-) seriously?, no one seen this coming? - as a Male I can see even the flaw of this minority female voices in interest.co.nz - let alone the whole troops, with vested interest that cling on silently on to neoliberalism.
Neoliberal creators, contributors, protectors, actors in this crash movie are easily identified, mostly males & always advises/act to socialise the private debt loss, they purposely created a program 'without' undo button - NZ, wake up!, then wake up the rest of OECD with this, remind JA - we can do this:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1507/S00101/the-fire-economy-new-zeala...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGrBCtOt4Qs

It's significant that we don't appear to have any mass infections from air travel. This tells me that we don't have much to fear from particles of the virus lingering in the air. Most infections must come from droplets recently expelled by coughs and sneezes and smears on surfaces ending up on hands and transferring to eyes, nose and mouth.

We can definitely fight this with a degree of social isolation and good hygiene and facemasks.

To get it to a level of chronic infection wouldn't be so bad as you could say we have lived with chronic flu for ever.

We must also resist these stories of this virus somehow being an irresistible enemy with super powers. This is an ordinary virus with the usual infection qualities.

Think I'm missing the point of your post?

I just think it's a significant clue that the virus spread more at parties and on ships than it did in the confined space of an aircraft. Filtering the air possibly helped much like a face mask.

Also we are constantly hearing tales about the extraordinary features of this virus because the media loves scary stories. I'm warning against taking too much notice of this. Most people are hardly affected at all.

Today's article mentions the word chronic for South Korea which I think is more bearable than acute.

People should be alert and not afraid.

Given many of the C19 infections in NZ arise from travellers suggest we cannot be confident about the efficacy of aircraft air filtering systems.

Errm, have you got any evidence to back up that claim.. like even a single case of someone returning from somewhere CV19 wasn't widespread that caught it on a plane?

ahem .. do you have any examples of places where Covid19 is not widespread ?

Yes but aircraft travel allowed the virus to spread to pretty much every part of the globe in theory within 24hrs (i.e. you can get anywhere in the world in a plane in around 24hrs). Weeks/months for that to happen on a ship and at least on a ship it is contained to a certain extent - even if that side of things was managed poorly with many examples of such.

Agreed - alert v afraid. Although if I had a weakened immune system for whatever reason then that might be quite difficult to achieve.

Yes, difficult but it's your and my individual problem to deal with not the nanny states' (except in public care facilities, individuals directly dependent on the state for daily care and other sensible exceptions). We have a much loved 90 yr old mum whom we are keeping hermetically sealed under a strict regimen. She is our responsibility and if we fail and she contracts C19 she dies, it's a simple as that. That'll be the future if we don't wipe this virus out. The alternative is economic stasis and resulting social and health disaster that'll make C19 look like a side show.

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When house price were going up, no was feeling bad for millennials and for all those people who were looking for a home for themselves but suddenly when it is clear that house price will fall and may be like never before (as whatever is happening now is like never before) than sympathy for speculator and so called investor is on rise as home owners buying for themselves have nothing to worry mostly as are not in it for short term.

https://www.ccn.com/these-entitled-millennials-are-cheering-for-a-housin...

When now it is very clear that house price will fall than even hard core supporter / propoganda machinery are forced to accept and this indicate how bad the fall may be going future.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=123...

So FHB should be aware and if have been talked by RE Agents to put in a conditional offer as they are fully aware that going future house price will fall and you will lose part of your equity/deposit - you too can use condition to back out of the contract legally to avoid lose.

RE Agents are convincing FHB that to avoid competition put in an offer - conditional offer during such time to fix the price and secure a house BUT actually are fixing the price to protect and secure the price for the vendor at your lose so be AWARE.

Still if any RE Agents tries to convince ask him if he can assure that price fill not fall drastically in future as little bit fall is understandable as with any buy but should not be substantial and see how he backs off and also to note that any RE Agent who is trying to convince you otherwise is not your well wisher and is harming you so to avoid such person in future also as knowing is trying to trap you.

Yes it doesn't make sense for millennials to have to pay the debts of their parents so they can have expensive housing portfolios. Given older generations have had it so good - they won't mind taking a hit and seeing house prices drop so that future generations don't have to carry their burden (sarc)

Haha Independent Observer .............."older generations had it so good "

Just in case you are not keeping that tongue firmly in cheek , lets not be silly now , you are obviously quite clueless as to the hell we went through in the 1960's 70's and 80's ,what with wars , communism, a fuel crisis , a weak economy , collapsing meat and wool prices, inflation , stock market collapses , recessions , interest rates of 25% on mortgages when people lost their homes ,............. and you could not even think of owning a car unless Nana died in England and left you a few quid .

I had never even heard of a Latte and Smashed Avocado , let alone the idea of a cellphone ( we waited on a list for years for a landline phone) or a PC . Laptop was the nickname for Nana's cat, and tablets were something you took if the Doctor prescribed them , unless you were in a Grade 5 Egyptian History class learning about heiroglyphics

Mortgages were (at times ) simply not available , you could not get one unless someone in your family had a deposit with the institution .

Houses were cold and damp , the heat pump and insulation as you know it did not exist .

Then we had banking crisises , foreign exchange control , and at times stuff was even rationed .

Things are so easy for this generation , and this covid 19 is going to change things for the Latte, Prozac and gym gear girls

Think you missed my sarcasm - I'm sorry you've suffered so much. Must have been tough. Sounds like its been a great way to build your quality of character.

Each generation has its challenges. Back in the day we had nuclear armageddon to worry about, if not climate change.

Why bother comparing the consumer driven society we have now with what what limited offering there were back then?
Even the lowest socio groups now days can afford many consumerables, cheap air travel etc.
Property on the other hand being extortionate now, was dirt cheap back then. My mother bought her first one at 19 while working part time in a shoe shop while at uni for heavens sake. No student loan to worry about either.
It’s beyond a joke the disparities between generations in this and many countries and I hope through this you boomers get levelled because of it. You’ve had it far too easy and too good at younger generations expenses the majority of your lives.

Comments like this are why you shouldn't be surprised my generation wants to see your generation crash and burn. Why you think this kind of arrogance won't come back on you in spades politically is beyond me. Don't forget who is going to be running the country when you're dribbling in the nursing home.

Oh Herald... you still don't know how to hide the premium content from non-paying readers...

Premium articles show headlines under the app. Am a herald premium customer but still they say to look it up under herald website. Then when I go there the article is missing and does not show in search results. So frustrating and waste of money.

" from non-paying readers" with a rudimentary knowledge of html, and Notepad++

Why would anyone read NZ Herald let alone pay for it? Appallingly low quality journalism. Not even sure if you can call it journalism. It's undigested and unedited press releases, regurgitation or just adverts.

There's some really good stuff from about 3 journos there. But that amounts to about 10% of the content. Yes, the rest is drivel.

C'mon David-Every neoliberal understand, capital movement 'have' to be accompanied by people movement. NZ tourism,education etc. 'Export' to China? - oh forgot, we can do it cheaply.. remotely.. by virtual visits. (tui ads)
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1507/S00101/the-fire-economy-new-zeala...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGrBCtOt4Qs

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From where I'm sitting we have a huge opportunity to fix the mess, so why not start at the top.
CEOs. What a joke, massive pays plus massive bonuses then at the first sign of trouble they put the companies hand out because they have mismanaged it. They are a fraud yet we don't jail them for it, in fact we celebrate it and give them another bonus then pay for the mess they leave behind.

Same can be said for banks. Let a couple go under.

Kiwis are soft and let sh*t slide, but I don't know that they will this time. It would be a very wise politician that took note of the feeling in the air. To even mention tourism is a fools errand, people are enjoying have their country back.
Makes you wonder how many companies will bring production home after this.

I would enjoy having my country back if I was allowed to travel and see a bit of it! The only way to stop tourists coming here is to price tourism out of enough tourists' reach. The only way to bring production back to NZ is to tariff competitors' products off our market. We used to do that. But our exporters will be nailed identically so it is a lose lose situation. Our other conundrum is what to do with nonKiwi businesses shovelling all money made to their bosses overseas as quickly as possible. Countdown, Bunnings, ANZ, BNZ, ASB, McDonalds, etc., etc.

Tax them on money they take out of the country instead of the b.s. situation now where a lot of them pay nothing. And i mean tax them, 80% has a nice ring to it.
If kiwis buy NZ made, and I do know how hard that is to do these days, then there will be less call for the imports so they will drop. I also believe kiwis will be looking harder to buy NZ made.
Maybe govt should be giving companies a hand to bring manufacturing home.

What is NZ Made? Assembled in NZ from imported parts?

We don't have the resources to actually manufacture here.

@wirehunt , I agree but Government should lead by example , we cannot have Auckland Council employees earning over $200,000.00 a year , even if they were nuclear physicists !

Not can we have the outrageous situation where the former head of Watercare earned $900,000.00 per annum , more than the Prime Minister and the Governor of the Reserve Bank combined !

The people that agreed to pay that just get put in jail for theft of public funds.
How much did that rooster from Fonterra get paid, speiling or something? How much money did he lose? Jail. That was criminal. 10 years in the pen, along with the fools that agreed to pay even half that much.

This white collar crime is exactly why we as a country are in this position and no one is held accountable. Yet if I swipe the stapler off the desk of one of these lying thieves straight to court.

In fairness, it's not even 20% of the price of a typical Auckland house. So not that much.

One thing people may not be aware of is that Level 3 is almost as restrictive as Level 4:

COVID-19 Alert System

We really want to get to level 2 or less as soon a possible.

We need to take this opportunity to reorganise society into the most resilient form we can.

Because BAU is not coming back. I've been surprised by the speed, but not the direction. This was inevitable, was de-globalisation. Localisation is overdue.

Fear, denial, vested-interest, status, will all be drivers, but if we don't grasp this chance with both hands, we're gone burgers. I have reducing sympathy for those who bet on biggering and biggering (Loraz/Seuss), I'm tending to suggest they be allowed to fail. If they want to sue the MSM and the economics profession, though, I'd tell then to go for it. We could have had this discussion more than a decade ago, and those echelons quashed the stirrings. Which raises the question of how we become informed in a post-Bauer-type world, and how do we avoid the pimps? (as per the ones who comment here; red/blue political hacks, ideological hacks).

Interesting times....

PDK. 'avoid the pimps' .... just 'avoid' ?. Mellowing a bit during the easter festival are we ? You were recently advocating such people should 'starved of oxygen'.

Extending the LD or drawing it out on level 3 will be killing the golden goose that keeps politicians in power. NZ is a nation of SMEs and forcing them to stay shut for longer under level 3 cant be justified. We will start getting more reports of how other countries eg aust are getting back to work and sport and there will be an uprising here against the govt that the govt will not be able to stomach. Jacinda will fold like a deck of cards

But Cindy has pronounced it is not a dichotomous choice between the economy and human life. Sounds very wise but it's nonsense because that is exactly the tradeoff choice which must be made if elimination isn't successful. An increased death rate from a less restrictive LD is inevitable and directly causal. It'll be interesting to watch her being forced to make one of the few profound decisions she has been unable to out source.

Lol, maybe on paper, but in the real world i suspect you'll find level 3 = BAU, plus some token efforts for most businesses.

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Can we stop comparing numbers to China they are obviously BS. By repeating their lies you just legitimise the lies.

A Telegraph reporter of Chinese heritage went into Wuhan when the lockdown was lifted. She spoke to a worker at one of the city's eight crematoriums. He said he has 5000 bodies to cremate when he normally has 24.

The herald did have it but can't find it on there now but this is the original but behind a paywall

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/11/coronavirus-diary-postcard-w...

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I'm with you and do not really trust any info coming out of Beijing

Well I definitely don’t trust those numbers - 5000 deaths instead of 24 implies this virus is killing 400 x the number of people as all other causes put together. That is utter nonsense. 4 million people die in China every year of heart disease alone. If it was 400 times worse than heart disease then it would have killed almost the entire population by now.
The media will stop at nothing to make COVID out to be much worse than it is. It’s a pity the general population just believe it instead of doing the maths themselves.

How do you explain the unusual load on hospitals in NY State if the virus is no worse than the flu?

Best data I've seen so far suggests 4x the mortality rate of the flu: https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-...

Down on the earlier London Imperial estimate of 0.9, but still significantly worse than the flu.

Not that I trust the Chinese Communist Party (it is disgraceful seeing our politicians fawning over them) but if the Wuhan cemetaries had been in shutdown for say 100 days then that 24 per day would equal 2,400 as a backlog and then add the over 3,000 that China admits died of Covid-19 mainly in Wuhan and maybe the 5,000 figure is not suspicious. The failure to count those who died without getting to a hospital and being tested would distort China's figures but probably distorts Italy and Spain's too.

Yes that is a fair point. So we can assume, at least, that there is 2500 above normal. If we times that by 8 crematoriums that is 20,000. And while many deaths in countries like Spain and Italy wouldn't be reported they don't have the history of deceit, lies, propaganda and oppression that CCP do. Remember officially in China Tiananmen Square never happened.

Also another article today, on CNN I think, saying all virus research publications have to be audited by the CCP.

My point is I'm not inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.

You are assuming the crematoriums are of equal capacity but it is most likely the journalist chose the largest and the unnamed worker picked a general figure that he thought the journalist would prefer. Figures for the deaths in the USSR under Stalin's famines are revealed by the number of conscripts a few years later in WW2 - but that is discussing millions - if instead of 3,000 dying in Wuhan it was 30,000 or 300,000 it will hardly be noticed in a population of 11 million. Of course anyone can go to Italy and knock on doors and ask how many died - not so easy in China - not easy to ask and not easy to trust the answer - that tells us what we need to know about China's government.

We can't trust anything coming out of CNN either.

Was wondering if anyone had any thoughts for any potential ecomnomic upsides if we did manage to stamp out virus?

It's been fascinating to see how our meat export industry was so quickly able to diversify away from china during their LD and find alternative markets. Clearly china's burgeoning middle class offers a lucrative market but it does beg the question of how much of our trade with them is because that market is simply easier than others.

When you say 'we' I'm assuming you mean NZ not the world. 250,000 fewer people when work visas expire. No international tourism. Debateable international education - will it sell without the promise of potential residency? - and not until next year. Smaller international markets for our exports. Even more desperate middle-class people from 3rd world countries trying to get into NZ by any means - so more mail-order brides and 'traditional' weddings. Different classes of quarantine - arrivals choosing to pay for cheap Auckland hotel rooms converted to a kind of prison or rent a room on a cruise liner or pay more for luxury waterfront hotel with discrete security on Waiheke. If population drops significantly demise of our building industry. Bottom end of Auckland Queen st abandoned by tourist orientated shops. International sport replaced by local intercity competitions. Auckland Blues to flatter to deceive - some things never change.

Wally was asking for economic *upsides*.
I think the answer depends on *our* response.
For example, if the govt took over lots of the consented residential developments in Auckland that will now be binned or deferred, and sold them at cost to FHBs, then clearly that is an economic and social upside.
Another economic upside is clearing out a lot of the wastage in our economy.

My lazy reading again. Read 'upsides' as 'effects'. I would like to see the govt take over any residential development that is currently under development - just to get them finished because that keeps construction industry active. It does have a touch of forced nationalisation but desperate times need desperate measures. Iwish I could believe you about clearing out of wastage - I reckon many fine competitive businesses will go under and some civil servants will find ways of making themselves essential.

Yep, I agree that sadly some good businesses will go down. But generally, I can see the poorer ones going down more.

Global deaths due to CV over the last 3 months of 113'000 are less than the normal DAILY death rate of 160'000 people! To be clear, worldwide, 113'000 have died of CV in 3 months, while every single day 160'000 people die of all other cases, that's 14'430'000 in 3 months or 128 times more than CV

Are you talking about others who die of all manner of things, from heart attacks to cancer, from traffic accidents to drowning, from malaria to measles, to natural causes? If you are, it might an idea to break down the number of deaths from each different cause. There is bound to be far, far more than 128 ways to die.

Global deaths from mass shootings are also lower per year than the normal DAILY death rate of 160000 people! Let's not ban mass shootings!

Thanks for helping make my point CJ. Indeed we do not keep a tally morning, lunchtime and evenings how many people have been shot, have died and have recovered world wide from gun shots. And as you suggest wouldn't it be great if some of the resources to fight CV could be used to reduce gun deaths.

Or heart disease. Compulsory exercise for example would probably save more lives than COVID and be far less invasive.

Level 4 has done just that. Every man and his dog is out pounding the pavements these days.

Maybe every weekend should be L4?

Yvil, if we're going that deep, shouldn't we also include the lives saved by the massively reduced pollution? Chinese people can finally breathe actual air instead of exhaust fumes.

And as you suggest wouldn't it be great if some of the resources to fight CV could be used to reduce gun deaths.

Problem is likely to be the overlap between people who are highly vulnerable to a virus like Covid-19 (thus wish to be protected) and those who are shareholders in arms manufacturers or influenced through their bribery (lobbying).

So we're very unlikely to see the same level of dedication to reducing gun deaths, because they don't affect those folk so much.

Agree Yvil. Obviously your numbers are a bit biassed by the fact that most people haven’t been exposed to COVID yet. But I would say in the worst case scenario the worlds death rate could double. So should we shut down the whole world just because we have twice the chance of dying as normal?

JJ, I don't think you get my original post. 2020 will have no more deaths than 2019 or 2018 or 2017

God this is tedious now. It's the exponentiation that matters. A heart attack does not exponentially create more heart attacks. Are you actually this mathematically illiterate or just in denial? It's one of the two.

A few have been working the posts today trying to convince everybody that this is all over the top.

Amazing isn't it? The more the data prove them wrong the harder they cling. It's like inverse science.

Boris johnson thanked two nurses who risked themselves and saved his life including one originally from invercargill. It's cool how nz always gets a mention. I love it the number of times contestants on the Chase say they plan to come to NZ if they win... nz comes up as a destination "exponentially" more times than our west neighbours

Covid 19 coronavirus: Kiwi nurse Jenny McGee 'overwhelmed' after British PM Boris Johnson credited her skills for saving his life
Covid 19 coronavirus: Kiwi nurse Jenny McGee 'overwhelmed' after British PM Boris Johnson credited her skills for saving his life
https://nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324386

Houseworks. Don't know how much you travel ( err, used to travel) but the international interest in NZ is widespread. It's common to be interrogated about our country. Our brand is so strong that I watch with dismay the swarming crowds of low yield tourist that we encourage to swamp our scenic gems. I'd like to think C19 was used as an opportunity to lift our sights to target higher yielding lower volume tourist categories but am not holding my breath.

I agree and said earlier that we dont need the dirty freedom campers from europe that are virtually penniless. Not an overseas traveler at all, but looking forward to it in next 5 years. Will definitely travel within nz this year while its quiet.... maybe freedom camping (kidding)

Yeah, as a regular visitor to more remote parts of our fabulous country I admit to strongly negative feelings about the crapped out vans masquerading as 'mobile homes' dotted about the landscape. But I did read a comment from the tourist industry some time back claiming that many of these young scrofulous tourists in vans later become higher end travellers who return with found memories of their young days here. I'm conflicted as I've met a number of these young mainly european travellers and rather enjoy them. I note with interest the Lufthansa pilot of one of the German repatriation flights (an unsurprisingly efficiently organised operation) saying how he backpacked here when younger here and loved it so was quick to volunteer to fly down.

A simple change to the IVL (like raising it from $35 to $3,500) might assist. I'd bet it is subject to a Regulation so could be done by lunchtime tomorrow....

What a great idea.

"Exponential" is a word with a meaning, it doesn't just mean whatever you want it to mean.

This is a repost from another article, I thought it is more pertinent on this article:

Is people's, media's and government's reaction to CV, the biggest over-reaction in human history and the largest self-inflicted hardship of all time?
Do people realise that worldwide, less people have died in March 2020 than in any March of the preceding 3 years?

Yvil. Is this not a false equivalence though ? Surely the comparison is how many deaths would we experience if we let Kung Flu loose?

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You need to watch what is happening in New York. They are literally burying people in mass graves. Their hospital system is overwhelmed. Your belief in your right to make money at all cost, including at the expense of other people’s lives is grossly unpleasant. Oh and spare me the nonsense of everyone has to die. Indeed we do, but like the young men who were forced to go over the top in WW One, they shouldn’t have to.

You seem to have an obsession with money, you always mention it. My post was not about money, I made no mention of it. My post is about how much people are going to suffer because of the reaction to CV

I don’t think some people get it do they. It’s not just our individual incomes on the line, it’s the whole economy. Our reasonably good economy is why we can afford very good healthcare, food, water, housing (well some of us that is), recreation, etc. Those things allow us to live much longer than other countries that don’t have good economies. So it is very reasonable to ensure that we don’t cause more death and disease by recking the economy than COVID will cause itself. But we aren’t really seeing that conversation from our leaders - it more the “no one should die” argument which is just utter rubbish.

Exactly.
I imagine most of the people who are advocating an extensive period of lockdown are in a position of comfort in terms of wealth, job security or both.
Unfortunately most of NZ's population don't have that luxury.

…or income benefit from the government

And here you are advocating for a plan that throws every healthcare worker in the country under the bus with inadequate PPE, high probability of severe illness and death and warzone levels of PTSD. Not to mention public parks doubling as temporary cemeteries.

Forgive me if I withhold my applause. Forgive me if I don't see your plan as economic genius.

No. But I'm ticking over, essential blah blah.

Ex is however a nurse and quite frankly that is stressful af atm. So why not take the pressure off them? To swing me this will need to be impressive...

Well said JJ

It's actually "utter rubbish" to claim we aren't seeing that conversation from our leaders.

Look at the sheer amount of money and policy decisions and discussion that they are throwing at trying to preserve economies after the lock down. Not just in our own country but in many others. Have you been missing the economic news?

Only the start of what I predicted hubhub.
The food runs out, the people revolt and the bullets start flying.
Your house being vacant is also another side effect, it will get worse with the rent and total house price decreasing.

From what I can determine, it is not killing more people, it is compressing the timeframe in which they die. So yes hospital systems are overwhelmed now.

But, a very large percentage deaths appear to have significant and serious co-morbidity. Many are on a terminal trajectory of <12 months anyway. Some UK studies showing <2 months.

There are minimal healthy young people dying. The mortality rates in under 10s are incredibly low - almost defying belief when compared to most other infections. (Obviously there are exceptions).

SImply, these are not young soldiers going off to war to die. They are the grizzled veterans, missing limbs with damaged organs, who were unlikely to see the end of the battle anyway, let alone the war.

Do people realise how many pandemics there have been is the past 100 odd years....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic

This is nothing new and will happen again.

Biggest over-reaction in history? The crusades? The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on 28th June 1914? The burning of the Reichstag building in Berlin, on Monday 27 February 1933? Any better suggestions?

You forgot to mention the Easter Bunny and Father Christmas, who have the same relevance to an epidemic as your examples.

We found that bastard, salt the ferret smashed.

You're in a car with Yvil in the passenger seat, heading for a head-on collision. Yvil says "Nahh don't swerve, it'll be fine." Not being insane, you swerve and successfully avoid a crash. Yvil says, "See, told you it would be fine."

Maybe Yvil knows that if you avoid that head on collision with a car you are sure to have a head on collision with a truck.

Show me the empirical data for worst case scenario virus spread not leading to an even worse economic outcome than lockdown. "The Hosk said it" isn't data.

That North Island soil moisture map has gone from scary to what the hell is happening. Third front that has come through where we could have got significant rain ( up to 50 mm is significant at the moment) , and we got 6 .5 mm. No ones got any silage left , and its a green drought , the grass is green(er), but not growing. Hopefully it was better elsewhere

now im facing some difficulty, we have buckets of crickets, Im finding it hard to be still going backwards in mid-April. People are going to start running out of supplement in the next few weeks, unable to find space in the works will be left with poor options. I dug down in my young grass and 10mm down it's dust, I'm going to need inches to fix this and get me out of moisture deficit.

I remember a friend down South digging a big hole and shooting 500 old ewes and burying them because he was out of feed and they were worthless, 80's. It took a few months for him to recover from it, he said it was the worse day of his life.

The problem this year is it's almost the whole country affected. It's the 'perfect storm' a friend from Southland told me.

Today is fine with hot dry Nor-Wester with no rain in forecast and days really matter now, nothing in forecast for next ten days.

Let's dig down on this. I'm central otago camped on a station (Have been here for years now). Till January we had a heap of rain, for many weeks the owners didn't irrigate.
This virus hit about then and it's a bit dry now. Sweet FA planes flying, industry has shut down....Is there a connection?

Of course there is. It was on the tv 20 plus years ago. With industry comes particles, the particles attract rain.
Down here at least the cockies work on a really BAD dry year, that's how they stock. None of them are to worried.

Yes , for them , dry summer is normal, and they farm accordingly. Up here , we are 200 mm below average rainfall since November. Februrary was 9mm , 90 mm below average. Last year wasnt much better . Maybe its the new norm , and we need to adjust accordingly. Ive been saying the seasons have been moving for 5 or so years now.

We all farm accordingly, I farm in the driest valley in the North Island, I have never seen a season like this.

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Economics should be compulsory in New Zealand schools.

Maybe then , produce managers of our supermarket oligopoly and owners of Fuel filling stations would understand the concept of a CLEARING PRICE .

We see TV reports of an oversupply of live pigs

Has Pork or bacon come down .............Not a chance

We read that Mc Donalds normally buy 550 tons of tomatoes and the tomatoes are going to waste and ALL restaurants are closed so no tomatoes going there either

Have Tomatoes come down ................Not a chance , in fact the New World Albany the managers says they are going UP .

I refuse to but tomatoes at $2,99 per kg when there is an oversupply , we will go without .

We read about Marsden Oil Refinery running out of storage space for oil and oil products , while mulling over whether to store in on the ships and not take delivery , resulting in demurrage , coupled to which the prices of crude has dropped from US$60 to around US$ 25 to 30 Per Barrel

Has the price of diesel or petrol come down ...............Not a chance , its still circa $2,00 for petrol at the BP I recently drove past.

Auckland and Welly both have the same price for petrol , and that itself is baffling .

I refuse to buy diesel ( which I luckily dont need right now ) until the price reflects the market conditions.

And let me tell you something else ................ right now for the first time in my life , I and many other Kiwis have the ability to wait it out much much longer than Z does , before Z comes to its senses and find a clearing price .

For them its a new landscape they have never seen before , and they are stumped .

Reality is coming to fuel companies that have screwed us for the 40 + -something years I have been driving ....... Karma is sweet.

Would that (economics training) be suitable for the likes of Bindi and Church?

Ha!
Well, at least if kiwis had better economic literacy, then maybe more people would see through their BS.
Having said that, I am not sure.

Who needs a thinking process when The Property Clock tells you all you need know.

Very funny :)

You don't know the crack. In central otago it's still 1.30 at best for desiel. However I also know that the last four tankers have been turn away from otago.
For the first time in living memory otago has a lot of fuel.
If the people of this region knew how often we had none they would be shock.

Companies like https://www.planetchopper.world/virus-buster-run doing some clever things to get domestic tourism flowing.