Supply chain disruptions grow severe; Toyota to halve output in May; China steel mills out of whack; EU confidence plunges; Aussies mull nationalisations; UST 10yr yield at 0.63%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 59.3 USc; TWI-5 = 65.8

Supply chain disruptions grow severe; Toyota to halve output in May; China steel mills out of whack; EU confidence plunges; Aussies mull nationalisations; UST 10yr yield at 0.63%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 59.3 USc; TWI-5 = 65.8

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of a roundup of international economic consequences from the pandemic.

First, American mortgage applications don't seem to be falling away any faster in the latest data for last week. But they are -31% lower than the same week a year ago.

And staying in the US, severe disruptions of supply chains is crimping meat supplies, and prices are rising fast.

In Japan, Toyota said it was halving car production in May. This is another signal that the economic effects of the virus are continuing to bite hard worldwide.

In Hong Kong, the Beijing-inspired arrests of democracy activists has brought forward plans for a major protest despite social distancing rules. Anger is near exploding point there.

China's steel mills are making more product than they can sell. And yet iron ore prices are rising again. It is a situation that will break one way or the other soon.

The latest survey of EU consumer sentiment came in lower than expected and very much lower than for March, taking them to 2009 levels.

And ECB boss Christine Lagarde dispelled notions of them buying bonds directly from EU member country governments, or doing some sort of helicopter money drop. They will stay only as an actor in secondary markets.

Turkey has chopped its official interest rates again - the eighth time in a row and down -1.00% to 8.75% - as their economy tanks. This rate was 24% at the start of 2019.

Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 2,611,200 and up +135,000 from this time yesterday which is a faster rate of rise from yesterday. 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is an unchanged level, and they are up +48,300 since this time yesterday to 834,900. This is a much faster rate of increase. Just over 9% of all US cases have recovered so far, which is no improvement. Infection rates in Russia are rising very quickly and they will be the next country to have more cases than China, followed by Turkey. Australia still has 6500 cases and little-changed over the past week; their recovery rate to 63% and also unchanged in more than a week.

Global deaths are now at 181,200, up +50% in a week, with very variable reporting across jurisdictions. I don't wish to add to fears, but it was the second wave that killed more people than the first in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. It is lesson about why our borders should stay shut until the rest of the world has credible control on Covid-19.

There are now 1451 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +6 new cases yesterday and more than the prior day's +5 increase. Fourteen people have died here, one more, all geriatric patients. There are now 11 people in hospital with the disease, with two in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 71% and rising.

In Australia, there is increasing talk of the Federal government bailing out struggling companies by buying equity shares - in effect, nationalising them. Virgin Airlines might be one of the first. Then again, it might not. The question of whether Australia can afford two airlines is currently front and centre there.

In New York, the S&P500 is up +2.5% in afternoon trade there. Overnight, EU markets rose as well, although by not as much. Yesterday, Asian markets were flat, as was Australia. The NZX50 Capital Index fell more than -1%.

The UST 10yr yield has recovered +6 bps to just on 0.63% and pulling back from its spike lower yesterday. Their 2-10 curve is narrower today at +41 bps. Their 1-5 curve is similar at +21 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is now wider at +55 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.88% and up +6 bps. The China Govt 10yr is down -2 bps at 2.57%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -1 bp at 0.90%.

Gold is much higher today, up +US$37 to US$1,715/oz.

Oil prices have risen today but are still very low, especially US crude prices. They are currently at just US$14/bbl and that is up +US$5 since this time yesterday. That is still in the extreme pain zone for producers however. US crude oil stocks came in higher than expected (+9%) but much lower than this time last week (-22%). International oil prices are rising too, with the Brent benchmark up +US$2 to US$20/bbl. Just one week ago, this price was US$28/bbl and considered unusually low.

The Kiwi dollar will start today weaker again. We are now at 59.3 USc and another -¼c lower than this time yesterday. On the cross rates we are -¾c lower at 94.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just under 55 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 has slipped back to 65.8 and now well below its rolling four week average.

Bitcoin is higher today, moving up +3.2% since this time yesterday to US$7,104. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

117 Comments

What if "Buffalo Theory" is why we got to this place? Is so, what if the response makes us even more vulnerable?

42
up

Sir John Key givining interview to Chinesse newsite as both find comfort in each other.

Him saying we are internationalist...... is it a way to convince Chinesse people and power that do not worry we are with you come whatmay.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12326839

No need to convince Average Kiwi as how much and what National has done to make NZ a Rocking Economy = Sold NZ assets = Dependency On One Country.

Exporting is one part but allowing to interfer and dictate should not be allowed.

Time to Reset from past mistakes.

For Kiwi whether Simon Bridge or Christopher Luxon - does it matter....But yes it will matter to their overseas masters.

27
up

is that the Sir Chon that quickly bailed from the Air NZ board back in Mar ?

I take comfort that he hasn't bailed from ANZ.

10
up

Key only got a directorship at Air NZ because his mate Chris Luxon was the CEO at that time. The new CEO, Greg Foran, didn't waste any time in getting rid of him as he realised that Key was just a headline name. Failed NZ businesses are littered with ex-politicians on the board of directors.

12
up

Mostly ex- National MP's sitting on Chinese Company Boards

Yes, he seems to like giving his employers "Seven Days Notice".

25
up

Doesn't Key live in Hawaii these days? Can we dis-own him?

Nah - he'll claim to have Maui blood and want back

I see JohnKey is beating a drum for Luxton to be the next National leader. With the sudden demise of A Bridge Too Far it looks like Luxton might be the Leader of the Opposition before he actually wins an electorate. National are really this desperate.

From article:

"To me the number one thing the Government of the day does is to provide a platform for hardworking New Zealanders whatever ethnicity they come from, to get ahead and progress in their lives and do well."

Replace "hardworking New Zealanders" with "speculative property investors" and it all makes sense.

12
up

COVID19 - CNN are now reporting that there were two deaths in California in early February, before the previous reported first deaths. These two, with no known travel history or links o China, suggest that COVID was present in the community quite early. And now doctors are reporting that COVID causes blood clotting for some reason, which in itself produces complications. Nasty little bug - elimination must be the goal, not immunity. Immunity at best can only ever be Plan B.

It's an RNA virus so it can mutate easy, it's also zoonotic by the looks.

All RNA's mutate easily. We have known that Coronoviruses were zoonotic origin since the 1930's and we have known this about Human Coronoviruses since the 1950-s-1960's. Including that they are RNA viruses.
https://www.ijbs.com/v16p1686.htm

Full-length genome sequences for SARS-Cov-2 were first obtained very early in the outbreak (Dec and Jan). The sequences are almost identical and share 79.6% sequence identity to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095418/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121143/

I've been told that infections can cause the blood to go "sticky" which can cause blood clots, so not so much COVID19 causes blood clots.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121203419/coronavirus-...

Are you referring to this article?
A third of patients showing major clotting issues, blood thinners prescribed?

No my own experience and what I was told by my doctors (last year)

You need to read the current articles. Doctors who are reporting the clotting are mystified by it. It is a 'new' twist to this virus.

Why - it is known that infections can lead to blood clotting. All it means is that the full effects of COVID19 on the body are not known.

But as the articles indicate, clotting is not a normal response to a viral infection. Indeed the effect of most virus's is the opposite.

What they talk about is the hemorrhagic fevers. The problem occurs where they say it is not what they are taught in the textbooks - in that situation you have to look outside the box / their thinking. I would argue the problem it they seem to think they know everything - they don't.

Trump will deny that! With some interest I listened to the reporting on the investigation of the source and noted to most questions on where it might have come from the answer was essentially "We have no evidence of that." Pictures of Sergeant Schultz from Hogans Heros come to mind - "I know Nuttink!"

The timeline still fits. Interesting to read news agencies reporting of the secret report. It’s concerning that it takes over a month to reach PDB? Slow process to get to the president. Also, I’d be surprised if satellite imagery was able to show virus related activity in Wuhan in late November little own December? Dead end report IMO.
The California cases raise questions. If they were cases then where is the classic exponential curve in California in Feb/Mar? No epicentre there? Sounds just a wee bit far fetched.

Very likely not much. The US intelligence on most things is not that good.

Yes a hell of a lot of intelligence in the US but it over shadowed by stupid.

DP

Didn't you know? According to the red hat brigade, the only way for the USA administration to know what's going on in China is to ask the CCP nicely, with the expectation that they will tell the truth.

Jo Nova has a roundup including links to journal articles. Brain and heart/stroke risks from the clotting aspect.

Sadly, as Fauci discovered in his recently humbling back tracking, Trump continues to bully scientists when the science doesn’t suit him.
The director of the office involved in developing a coronavirus vaccine says he was abruptly dismissed from his post as he resisted efforts by Trump in pushing the unproven chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine which clearly lacked proven scientific merit.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics/rick-bright-barda-trump-coro...

ICYMI: PBS Frontline (21 April, 2020): How did the U.S. become the country with the worst known coronavirus outbreak in the world? FRONTLINE investigates the American response to COVID-19 and examines what happens when politics and science collide. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/coronavirus-pandemic

I wouldn't give CNN any time in the day. Fake News to the extreme. Hopefully, the legal cases against them will cause them to be non-existent.

CNN is up there with WHO and NZ's DoC.

I see the conspiracy theorists are being vocal.

As are the spoon fed MSM dribblers

I think we can safely say that CNN and WHO are useless. It can be taken as a fact now.

Dow, FTSE, gold and Bitcoin all flying high again today. Will there be any negative consequences to the printing of all this magic money by central banks?

Yeah, nah!

Nope

16
up

Agree, it worked in Zim.
You just add a zero every now and then

And an expiry date on the note.

13
up

I don’t get the Australian Covid stats. How can their case rate remain static at 6500 for the last week and their recovery rate also remain unchanged. Surely the %recovery would increase.
Last week it was reported here that their recovery rate leapt approx 20% in one day. Also they only report fatalities occurring in hospital - misleading.

Here's the latest figures on Australia's coronvirus cases which shows 6,649. I'm also surprised for a country that size that they've only had 74 deaths. I guess it all boils down to testing and reporting to how accurate the data is.
Have they been in lockdown as much as we have? link to world meter: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

they only count positive tests, that why many scientists have come out and said that there may be more in the community that they have not found, also they have a much higher instance of unknown community transmission than we had.
they were ahead of us and now they are having new clusters appear in Sydney so they are going to have a harder task to emlinate
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2020/...

Sorry I don't get the argument though - theres still less deaths per capita.

Australia population - 25.5m, Covid deaths - 74 = 1 death per 344,595 people.
NZ population - 4.8m, Covid deaths - 16 = 1 death per 300,000 people.

Irrespective of how tests are classified a death is a death right?

Oil prices have risen today but are still very low, especially US crude prices.

Desperate times call for desperate measures

I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.Link

I guess they will return fire with ship busting missiles.

The Millennial Challenge

'Red, commanded by retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper, adopted an asymmetric strategy, in particular, using old methods to evade Blue's sophisticated electronic surveillance network. Van Riper used motorcycle messengers to transmit orders to front-line troops and World-War-II-style light signals to launch airplanes without radio communications.

Red received an ultimatum from Blue, essentially a surrender document, demanding a response within 24 hours. Thus warned of Blue's approach, Red used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of Blue's fleet by the second day of the exercise. In a preemptive strike, Red launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces' electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships. The losses were as follows: one aircraft carrier, ten cruisers and five of six amphibious ships. An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel. Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of Blue's navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

Interesting read,esp where the US institutions want to change the rules to get the predetermined results and validate their world view.

War games. Strategy first, tactics second but not necessarily in that order. But with the situation building in the far east, very big situation indeed, it might be around about now, 75 years on, a good idea that Japan should be allowed to re-arm itself. Strategically & tactically.

Being Ex-mil, and knowing US military training concepts I read this and bet myself that Riper was effectively accused of cheating. Then I clicked to the article, sure enough, and he resigned halfway through the exercise as the Blue force demonstrated they were unable to adapt and rise to the challenge of facing unconventional opponents, instead crying 'foul!'. Entirely entertaining!

If the Van Riper had been Von instead, you could have thought a likely descendant from one of the very many great Vons that commanded such as the Panzers.

Shoot down a flying gunboat - clever Iranians!

Oil stocks.
Australia storing its strategic reserve in the USA. WTF?
Dont giggle Energy minister tells reporter.

https://theworldnews.co/dont-laugh-mp-scoffs-at-reporter/?utm_source=rss...

Wonder how much strategic reserve we have? I seem to remember 5 days worth. That doesn't seem a lot.

Ours is in Singapore.

That's OK, though. It's fungible; ask any economist.

Disagree that it is OK PDK. It needs to be located here. Logistics are a vulnerable facet in any crisis. NZ is highly vulnerable in almost any crisis situation because of our geographic location. Resilience requires that we locate as much of our strategic assets locally as possible, dispersed too. GeoPolitics does not guarantee their delivery, no matter how good our Pollies think they are.

Am 100% sure PDK was being sarcastic. Turn on sarcasm detector!

T'was a joke :)

Based on another...... :) :)

I love people that go on rants when they dont pick up sarcasm.

You need a dating coach.

Yes sorry all, my Sarc detector must have been at a low ebb in that moment

Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the research charity Wellcome Trust, said: "Around 8 billion dollars is needed for a vaccination that can be developed and manufactured at scale, and to distribute that around the world leaving nobody behind."

Speaking during a telephone conference, he said the current pandemic is unlikely to be a one-off, describing it now as "an endemic human infection".

"It is likely this is here for the human race for the future and so we are going to have to find ways to deal with that," he said.

That’s the reality. An Inconvenient Truth, Mark 2.

Well the good news is the Brits are working pretty had at developing a vaccine for the coronavirus. Apparently two leading vaccine developments at UK universities - Imperial College London and the University of Oxford - would receive a total of £42.5m to support their clinical trials.
BBC Coronavirus: UK 'throwing everything' at developing vaccine. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52374653

This isn't news. This is a strong possibility for *any* virus. Some burn out, some become endemic. This is absolutely normal and predictable. It's not some truth being revealed by SARS-Cov-2.

Market Mayhem Meets Liquidity Mismatch: “At Least” 76 Mutual Funds in Europe Were “Gated” in March
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/22/market-mayhem-meets-liquidity-mismatch...

worrying!, what will the ripple effects be and how severe?

The US death rate from the coronavirus is certainly increasing they're now up to 47,771. I would be surprised if it was over 50,000 by the end of this month. Link to worldmeter: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

End of the month?? It will almost certainly be over 50k by the end of the week. Probably by the end of their working week.

IHME model
"65,976 COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020"
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

ourfiniteworld.com/2020/04/21/covid-19-and-oil-at-1-is-there-a-way-forward/

BBC Coronavirus: Germany's states make face masks compulsory. "All of Germany's states have announced plans to make face masks compulsory to combat the spread of coronavirus." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52382196

We would too if we had any.
If MoH suppliers had any.

See the committee yesterday, the chemists went through international ass/guilds to get them.

One covid catcher has their catching put down to incorrect PPE use. Bad dhb.
Root cause analysis shows the mask wasn't changed per guidance, because of short availability in hospital, short availability problem of supply from dhb, supply problem because MoH procurement problem, MoH procurement problem because of poor MoH suppliers.
So you can see how it's all the nurse's fault! Grrr.

Note dhb now buying masks off super rugby players.
Yay the MoH.

The authorities claims that they have plentiful PPE still look very dodgy. May Chen, who is hardly a rabble rouser and I would attribute with far more credibility than this government, yesterday on RNZ, described the experience of about 4 members of her family who were various workers in the health sector. All were finding it next to impossible to get PPE and were resorting to making there own or buying what they could on Trade Me. Adern said that she wanted to hear from health workers who's employment was being threatened when they raised the issue of PPE shortages. This was far too limp wristed. If she was sincere, what she should have said was that such threats to whistle blowers are illegal and that cases would be prosecuted. The fact that she did not is significant.

Committee yesterday also got across the Flu Vaccine.
GPs position/supply, it was handled terribly.
Counter to PM position.

Also sounded like GPs $ funding has been held up. PM needs have that $ pmt on list of things to do.

A "rapid stocktake" of the government's distribution of protective equipment, such as face masks, has been ordered by the Health Minister.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121215850/coronavirus-...

All we been asking for.

BUT BUT BUT Jacinda said we were prepared for this months ago!!!!

Well, this Michael Moore movie isn't gonna go down well....Cue the outrage. Companion Forbes article from Michael Shellenberger, a Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment”. Draw your own conclusions....

The USA green new deal looks DOA.

Our own Shaw & Co are debunked, it wrecks a large portion of government policy & spending wasted. Pity the PM.

Public transport anyone? "To prevent users and staff from catching Covid-19, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) announced all public transport would be fare-free from March 24."

Chuckles...

It was one of those rare occasions when I picked up the Dominion - only to read that gem of a sentence. No wonder interest.co.nz readership is increasing.

...and now taxpayers will be funding this drivel. Whatever could go wrong. I hope Interest at least gets some of this cash.
"Media companies will get help worth $50 million from the Government to help them cope with a huge drop in income during the coronavirus crisis."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121178681/coronavirus-50m-government-pa...

So following the logic of this, somehow by virtue of it being free, I won't catch CV19?

I like the sound of that as a general policy.

"Have we environmentalists fallen for illusions, “green” illusions, that are anything but green, because we’re scared that this is the end—and we’ve pinned all our hopes on biomass, wind turbines, and electric cars?"

Yes

Those that deal in how buildings really work have known about this for years, but the reality is most of life is like this, in that PR falls into two camps.

Camp 1. You have a genuinely good product and you want to communicate that to the world.
Camp 2. You have a genuinely bad product, but 'polish it' so it sounds good.

And then we have to guess which one is telling the truth.

News from the back end.

"We must hope that a fully adequate system will be in place before the country shifts to alert level 3 next week."

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121147156/coronavirus-...

I can't believe that the government would involve the GCSB in setting up an app to track contacts. As we have seen in the past this organisation cannot be trusted and has a propensity to place it's self above the law. They have also had a propensity to align themselves with shady USA sympathetic organisations. Was it through the GCSB that Peter Theil's companies tried to pitch their products to the government. With the GCSB's involvement I seriously doubt that I will download any app that they come up with. I suspect that I will not be the only one.

If you think the GCSB needs you to voluntarily download an app in order for them to track you, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Social distancing = Communism

It is the USA's god given right to get the V.
The land of the free(ky).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2020/apr/2...

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/collingwood-star-mason-cox-has-had-eno...

But there is a line between using emergency powers and outright authoritarianism—one that Hungary has undoubtedly crossed. With this week’s passage of a law effectively removing any oversight and silencing any criticism of the Hungarian government, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can now rule by decree for an indefinite period of time.

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/609313/

Absolute power corrupts absolutely

This ties a couple of threads.

https://youtu.be/IXG2F0a6I28
See PT esp 5.50 min mark, role of AI. And CCP.

So no different from the Soviet era.....

"Turkey has chopped its official interest rates again - the eighth time in a row and down -1.00% to 8.75% - as their economy tanks. This rate was 24% at the start of 2019."

Reminds me of the Good Days of 1990s in nz. We thought all our xmases had come with 8 percent ocr so in response we bought properties. What do you think will happen in Turkey... that's right...

this is what we have coming … stranded "assets" everywhere

Lets hope the Govts last ditch open cheque book projects arent as short sighted

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121204701/coronavirus-zombie-airport...

Some Q'town entrepreneur-type can rent the runway out to skateboarders, cyclists and blow-carters.

and fuselages would make interesting tiny-homes.....

PSSSST .... have I got a deal or two or three for you .... you want a plane ? .... make an offer

Trump Impressed by Australia's Success.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-donald-t...

Appropriate title would be

Australia Horrified by Americas Failure

Why would Aussie manipulate COVID numbers? - coz they are totally paranoid that we are going to make their decision look like not the right one.Meanwhile many our our COVID doubters look to Oz has being the messiahs of great decision making.

15
up

This lockdown is now becoming too much for me .

I have too much time on my hands and I am starting to fret about the future, my kids , the poor , the unemployed , the economy , those who are not in our position of being "haves "....and how much worse it could get

I wish we could get some good news , that snaps us out of the cycle of morose depression I am feeling

I dont understand why the hell the stock market rally has been so sustained , so i googled and looked at the events between 1929 and 1931 and realize that we are in the middle of something we dont understand at all

I now dont have much to do at home , other than to reply to e-mails and consider a marketing strategy post covid , which I will do on Zoom tomorow , having sent it out to the partners for comment .

Today I will do some gardening , go for a run with my dog , and maybe have a BBQ with my wife to try and lift my spirits

This virus must just piss off now , because frankly I have had enough

This is only just starting Boatman...pace yourself!

You ever read Covey's books? Always find a quick flick through some of his quotes/words of wisdom when I lose direction. Help clarify what I can change/influence and what I can't - and then direct focus in the right places.

I don't know if this will be an consolation Boatman, but I think what you are experiencing is very normal and you are not alone with it.

I noticed early on that everyone appeared to be going through something very similar to the stages of the Kubler-Ross Grief Cycle. Shock or disbelief, denial, bargaining, guilt, anger, depression, and acceptance/hope, all of which can manifest as emotional, physical, social, or religious experiences. And the stages are sometimes non-linear, where we go back and forth. This is especially true now, with a rapidly changing situation.

We can't make plans for the future anymore. It's a huge shock and adjustment for our brains, which are not great at processing shock, risk and complex upheavals like this at the best of times (evidence of this is everywhere, including the stock market)

Unfortunately the only way to any kind of mental peace during this pandemic is to try and accept the uncertainty and take what comfort and kindness we can from who and what we can.

Very true
It is grief for a future that now is not available

Yes I thought the very same thing a month back. I'm still in denial :-P

Another possible mood-lifter: Alain de Botton's piece on NatRad a few days ago. There's a 'Calm' book, too (can't find it yet on Book Depository).

Boatman - we share the same passion, if not the same ethos (but I must admit to having long anticipated this kind of event, and finding it no troube whatever, we're actually accommodating 5 extras with no stress).

I've taken to building a vintage pond-yacht (for eventual R/C) from a 1948 10-rater plan. The challenge is to use what is to-hand, so the mast is an old fishing-rod and a ski-pole. The traveller is made from a ball-cock arm. The chainplates are old bus-bar brass. The rudder-stock is a 6mm stainless drinking straw. The outhaul is cut-down curtain-track. You can have a lot of fun :)

Reading is good too - try Half-Safe (Ben Carlin) as one of the better, nautical-wise.

My wife quotes some psych research into those sentenced to home detention and apparently week 3 is when it starts hurting.

I concur. I understand the reasinand agree with it but bloody hell I need to get into the bush for a few days.

The recent US jobless claims numbers and unemployment projections have put the fear of god in me. US unemployment has only risen above 10% once in modern memory, to 10.8% in the early 80s. Now they are talking about figures in the 20% - 30% range. This could be the start of an economic reckoning on a scale never seen before.

Yes - when people keep thinking that its okay the share market is back up - everything has been 'priced in'. 'Housing will only fall 10%' etc.

At this point in time, I'm open to any size of fall in either asset class. Could be 50%, who knows. But if 20 or 30% of mortgages aren't getting serviced the next few years anything could happen.

Australia's Covid-19 recovery rate just got updated: now 71%, same as NZ.

Ozzy stats. How can they be getting the same stats as NZ when their lock down is by far less stringent?
Theybare playing the same game as the States, cross your fingers and hope like hell this stops before the truth comes out.
It must be 2.5 weeks since Trump stated that they were in for a bother week of pain before things got better. Things haven't got better!

Interesting duo:

  1. a release about questions which the Epidemic Response Committee asked of RBNZ. Techie readers may notice the suitably obscure URL: it's close to 'hidden under the nearest carpet'.
  2. Michael Reddell's response to the answers to those questions. Spoiler: he ain't Happy. The usual issues: RBNZ obfuscation, half-truths and zero transparency.

It all seems astonishingly negligent on the Reserve Bank’s part, put on notice of the issue years ago, claiming to be actively looking at it [options for negative OCR rates] last year (recall the Governor’s major interview talking up his preference for the negative rates option). This from an institution that has boasted since the last crisis how well positioned it was because it was both the monetary policy agency and the banking regulator (and operator of the wholesale securities settlements system) so that all the synergies should be realised and little or nothing should have fallen through the cracks. This one – a big one – most clearly did.

Interesting answers to the questions. One answer - Banks cannot confiscate the savings of depositors. Two questions later - Refer to Preparations and readiness for negative interest rates.

Why is GR not looking at changing the Tax rate for those 100's thousands about to be made redundant, that the redundancy payment, be capped at 10.5%..target the ones who are going to be impacted the most at the start. No point handing cash out to everyone yet Grant.

Biggest news of the day.
US meat supply chain issues. It will get worse and also adding other food to this.
A good portion of the US population has had enough of the lock downs and add expensive/ no meat to that and there will be trouble.
There are so many points where this can start spiraling put of control and I'm surprised at each new negitive revelation isn't the final straw that breaks the cammels back.

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